Tag Archives: UAE

Apr 14 2026

A Pragmatic Perspective on the Iran Conflict


Posted originally on CTH on April 12, 2026 | Sundance 

Many people have requested that I outline some context on the Iran conflict; so, here it is.

What follows is my own researched perspective on the challenge that President Trump is facing.  I anticipate the non-interventionists will not be happy with it, and also the Israel First crowd will not like the brutal pragmatism of it. Alas, having spent a great deal of time watching things unfold, here’s my take.

Start with this question: Considering all the years the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has persisted, why haven’t its strongest allies, China and Russia, ever provided Iran with a nuclear weapon?

Now, before anyone jumps into the nuclear non-proliferation perspective, let me remind you we are not going to pretend things here. You can pretend that Beijing didn’t give the DPRK nuclear weapons by pretending that North Korea isn’t a proxy province of China. Or you can stop pretending. The choice is yours!

So, what’s different?  Well, in the DPRK example, Beijing holds the control mechanism.  For Iran, giving religious fanatics a nuclear weapon would be tantamount to giving the Muslim Brotherhood the ability to start World War III.

As recently noted, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urged President Trump not to back down from this moment of consequence and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. MbS is about as close to a Middle East pragmatist as you can find.  In response, a desperate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to Saudi Arabia hoping to change the position of MbS.  Great Britain is almost out of fuel.

That’s a good place to start looking at the regional perspectives.

Islamic extremists, religious zealots, fanatics, cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons.  Even those who are sympathetic to the Iranian regime, particularly Turkey and Qatar, are pragmatic about this issue.

Nuclear weapons must never fall into the hands of Hezbollah, Hamas, al-Qaeda, the Islamic State (ISIS), al-Nusra, and all of the extreme -perhaps most authentic- factions of Islam are included in that outlook.

While it is true that Israel has carried out a brutal, over-the-top, offensive against Hamas in Gaza, it is also true that Egypt – via President al-Sisi, spent two years destroying Hamas terror tunnels on the Egyptian-Gaza border and installed a five-layer security perimeter to keep the Islamist “Palestinians” out of the Sinai.

President Sisi (Egypt) and King Abdullah (Jordan) do not want to import Palestinian Hamas promoters, despite their very public opposition to the offensive methods of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

♦ The Muslim Brotherhood represents the political face of extremist (authentic) Islam.  Turkish President Recep Erdogan is one of the zookeepers keeping the big cat cages under control, while simultaneously using the big cats to draw an audience.

Qatar is the banking side of The Muslim Brotherhood, feeding the big cats and providing them indulgences to keep them satiated.  The intelligence services of Israel (Mossad) and the USA (CIA) are involved in this process.

When it comes to authentic Islam, you might say that essentially Mossad and the CIA are the physical cages, while Turkey (Recep Erdogan) and Qatar (Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani) are the zookeepers.

Turkey the gateway to Europe, is a NATO member not a NATO ally. Qatar has a foot in both the lawfully constrained western world and a foot in the religious fanaticism world.  While the tightrope walking might seem difficult both Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Qatari Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani have navigated this dynamic as part of their own influence and affluence operation.

That said, none of the names involved thus far want the rabid faction of the big cats to get a nuclear weapon.  President Donald Trump does not want the rabid cats to get a nuclear weapon.  None of the voices in the Middle East, sans the fanatical Iranian religious faction, want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

All of these various regional players have their own individual nuance to retain influence and power.  However, on the issue of nuclear weapons they all agree – Iran must never have them, because Iran would represent the biggest threat in the entire world to using them.  [Name a weapon that Iran has never used.]

None of Iran’s allies – not Pakistan, not Russia and not China – would ever fathom giving Iran a nuclear weapon, because the leadership of Iran is sketchy, unstable and, well, potentially batsh!t crazy enough to use it.  The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are just as zero-sum minded as the Islamic clerics they protect.

This accurate and factual baseline of common interest is why you do not see any of the regional voices opposing President Trump’s effort to ensure that Iran NEVER HAS a nuclear weapon?

How strong is that sense of common interest?…  Strong enough to accept Israel bombing Iran in support of that common interest.  Turkey, aligned in sympathetic voice with the Muslim Brotherhood, hates Israel; but they hate Israel slightly less than they hate the thought of Iran having a nuclear weapon.

So, against the backdrop of Iran rejecting any deal that precludes them from having a nuclear weapon, where does that leave things?

It leaves the entire Middle East in a position to continue supporting President Trump’s effort to stop Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon.  It really is that simple.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and yes, even Qatar, are willing to endure a considerable amount of economic pain and internal friction in order to get to the place where Iran stops their nuclear objective.

It’s the Iranian nuclear threat that’s the problem.  It’s the Iranian nuclear threat that has always been the problem.

This time, President Donald J Trump is trying to deal with that threat once and for all.

Europe is going bananas because they need oil/gas. The U.K is going bananas because they need oil/gas. Asia is really in a bad place because they too need oil/gas.  The energy problem goes all the way to Australia because they too need oil/gas.

The more a nation chased the net-zero carbon, climate change, global warming nonsense, the more they are exposed to the dire Straits of Hormuz.  Japan can hold out a little longer with reserves and China can ultimately make do with Russian provision.

Which brings us to the point where President Trump is saying the U.S. will end up having to control the Strait of Hormuz, and we should look for an extension to the Russian sanction relief as a direct consequence of Iran rejecting the terms of JD Vance and the USA delegation.

Now, there are some who claim that Iran doesn’t want a nuclear weapon, and/or Iran has a fatwa against nuclear weapons.  These voices are ridiculous.  Think about the irrational logic of the claim: Iran is refusing to stop pursuing something they do not want.

♦ It can be argued that Israel is being opportunistic and leveraging the regional support for Trump toward their own interests and objectives.  It is a fair criticism to say the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is too militaristic and aggressive.  Israel’s continually aggressive posture makes it difficult to navigate the nuances of strong diplomacy.

In fact, both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have stated the goals and objectives of the USA and Israel may not be aligned on all matters, and Turkish President Erdogan has been exceptionally critical of Israel’s continued military operation into Lebanon, presumably targeting Hezbollah.

However, there is no indication that Israel is directing President Trump on the issue of a denuclearized Iran.

On the issue of Iran never having nuclear weapons, it has been the stated policy of every U.S. administration for 40+ years, and on that issue the entire Middle East is in agreement.

Apr 14 2026

President Trump Releases a Statement on the Iranian Refusal to Stop Building a Nuclear Weapon


Posted originally on CTH on April 12, 2026 | Sundance

I am going to outline a contextual background for the Iranian conflict and my opinion of the current situation in detail. In short, I stand with President Trump’s position, but many of the influential aspects are being missed.

The anti-interventionist podcasters and the Israel-first advocates are both wrong. An honest and pragmatic review of the entire regional dynamic is needed.  Which includes the big picture question that no one is asking.

In the interim, here is the statement from President Trump describing the current status, against the backdrop of Vice President JD Vance’s earnest efforts to negotiate a resolution:

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.

They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?

There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.

I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

[PART II] – “So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.

Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them.

THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.

We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition.

The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally, and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!” ~

~President DONALD J. TRUMP

Apr 1 2026

Lindsey Graham Wants Trump to Hurry and Wrap Up Iran War – Need to Avoid Exposing NATO Weakness


Posted originally on CTH on March 31, 2026 | Sundance

Senator Lindsey Graham (U-DC) has never met a military combat operation he didn’t like.  In his career Graham, like his friend John McCain (RIH), has always supported war against every country.

However, beyond the unquenchable bloodlust there is one thing Senator Graham fears, an exit from NATO.  With the Iran conflict providing buckets of citations for why the United States should pull back from the NATO alliance, citations that Graham cannot easily refute, the war monger is worried the old war ethos of NATO could be lost.

[SOURCE]

“But, DAMNIT peace isn’t a prize!”…

“Don’t worry, we’ll get through this together.”…

Mar 31 2026

Secretary of State Rubio Gives Lengthy Interview to Al Jazeera


Posted originally on CTH on March 30, 2026 | Sundance

Al Jazeera is essentially the state run media outlet of Qatar.  Secretary of State Rubio sat down for a lengthy interview with Al Jazeera that will be shared throughout the Arab world.

“In an exclusive Al Jazeera interview, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that President Trump always prefers diplomacy, with messages and indirect talks ongoing between the US and figures inside Iran. Rubio demanded that Iran abandon all nuclear weapons ambitions, end its missile and drone programmes, and stop sponsoring terrorism across the region. He rejected Iran’s conditions for ending the war — including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and financial compensation — calling the strait demand illegal and a dangerous global precedent. Rubio declared that the strait “will be open one way or another” after US military objectives are achieved, whether through Iranian compliance or an international coalition.”

“He outlined those objectives as the destruction of Iran’s air force (achieved), navy (largely achieved), missile launchers, and weapons factories — all to be completed in weeks, not months. Rubio expressed disappointment with NATO allies like Spain for denying basing rights and airspace, warning that the US would re-examine its NATO commitment. He confirmed the US would welcome regime change in Iran but insisted it was not the official objective of the current military operation. The interview also covered post-Maduro stabilisation in Venezuela and called for serious economic and political reforms in Cuba.” 

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P

Mar 26 2026

Susan Kokinda Outlines the Shift in Strategic Alliances


Posted originally on CTH on March 25, 2026 | Sundance 

The rebranded Lyndon LaRouche PAC has another good outline on the new strategic alliances assembled by President Trump as the ongoing conflict with Iran continues.

Susan Kokinda reviews how the United Kingdom and Europe have been sidelined as President Trump directly negotiates with key stakeholders in the middle east and Asia.  Kokinda correctly notes the messaging from Russia indicates a strategic awareness that old systems are fracturing and the potential for new strategic alliances is rising.

“Susan Kokinda argues President Trump has opened a new diplomatic space to de-escalate the Iran conflict by working through a regional roster—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Gulf States, and back channels into Iran—while the U.K., EU, and NATO are absent and increasingly irrelevant. Citing reporting that ministers met in Riyadh and that Egypt, Turkey, and Oman carried messages, she says this “Board of Peace” architecture is isolating Iran and weakening its proxies, pointing to Lebanon’s move against Hezbollah, the Palestinian Authority’s condemnation of Iran, and Hamas considering disarmament. Kokinda links Europe’s exclusion to self-inflicted energy weakness from Green and anti-Russia policies, noting rushed LNG moves and a delayed Russian oil ban vote. She concludes Ukraine’s outlook darkens as Europe and Britain lack leverage, highlighting Zelenskyy’s scramble for support in London and Washington.” WATCH:

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Mar 4 2026

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Updates Media


Posted originally on CTH on March 3, 2026 | Sundance 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio updates the media on current activity surrounding Operation Epic Fury.

Secretary Rubio begins with an update on what Americans in the region need to know. Rubio asks all Americans to record their status with the U.S. State Department. [State Dept. Website] To get the latest updates visit http://travel.state.gov/destination and enroll to receive alerts directly at http://step.state.gov. Americans who need consular help can reach us 24/7 by phone: +1-202-501-4444 (from abroad) and +1-888-407-4747 (from the U.S. and Canada).

Rubio then outlines the latest report on a drone hitting near a U.S. embassy in Dubai.  A drone struck a parking lot adjacent to a chancellery building and a fire broke out.  No Americans were hurt or injured. The consulate was already on minimal staffing.

Secretary Rubio then provides an update on the general disposition of the conflict effort.  Rubio notes the two most powerful air forces in the world are about to go even more severe in our combat activity deep inside Iran.

The traditional frame of reference for pundits surrounds “the escalation trap.”  Most of them are so stuck in their old Washington DC view of nation building they just cannot see another approach.

How do you avoid the trap? You don’t play the game.

You don’t try to control the outcome on the ground.  You change behavior, without being on the ground.

Eventually, having killed or destroyed everything you want to see killed or destroyed (including their ability to wage war against you), you withdraw – then demand terms.

You don’t need to be there on the ground.

It’s a version of the Venezuela model.

Tell the governing body, whoever that is, whoever surfaces to claim lead with the support of the people, what you expect. Then you hold them accountable.

If they refuse to change behavior, bomb them again – select the refusers as new targets. Wash – Rinse – Repeat.

Again, pull back, await the governing authority to surface, tell them the expectations, if they balk, reject or refuse, bomb them again…. Pull back, await the next crew, tell them the expectations; if they balk, fail or reject, bomb them again…. Then pull back.

Is there an escalation trap? No, you are trying to change behavior – full stop.

You remain open but cold, hard and indifferent to any non-compliant replies.

Mar 2 2026

UAE Confirms They Shot Down 541 Drones, 165 Ballistic Missiles and 2 Cruise Missile Fired by Iran – 21 Drones Hit Civilian Targets


Posted originally on CTH on March 1, 2026 | Sundance 

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a very popular tourist destination in the middle east with most travelers traveling to the playground of Dubai.  Their economy and image as a safe and secure country are very important.  As a result, they are keenly sensitive, proactive toward negative impressions and highly focused on international opinion/security.

Iran has been sending drones and cruise/ballistic missiles into the entire region; hitting Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and Israel.

The UAE is sharing how intense they are being targeted along with the network of defense systems being deployed to intercept the attacks.

UAE Ministry of Defense confirms we successfully shot down: 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles and 541 drones fired by Iran.

On day 2, we shot down 20 ballistic missiles (8 fell in sea), 2 cruise missiles, and 311 drones. 21 drones hit civilian targets. {SOURCE}

This is a remarkable amount of Iranian firepower being targeted toward one regional nation.  The air defense system of the UAE is highlighting the value in very proactive defense positioning.  Quite remarkable.

[SOURCE]

“[…] – The UAE’s air defense today achieved a success rate of more than 96% in intercepting missiles after destroying 132 out of 137, and more than 93% in intercepting drones after intercepting 195 out of 209, for a total of 327 threats intercepted out of 346 with a success rate of around 95%. This is a figure that places it among the highest interception rates globally, which typically range between 85% and 95% depending on the type of threat and the conditions of engagement.” (source)