The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release the first estimated September jobs report earlier today [Details Here] reflecting 134,000 new jobs added last month. However, that’s not the story – The BLS revised August upward +69,000, and July +18,000.
The cumulative jobs gained 134k + 87k equals 221,000 new jobs. Lowering the unemployment rate to 3.7% the lowest unemployment statistic since 1969.
First, a note on the *revisions*. How did the BLS underestimate (twice) the August jobs report by 70k ? This is stunning: 201k -vs- 270k. That’s a 30% error rate? Someone’s head needs to roll, because it looks like politically motivated statistical sandbagging.
BLS – […] The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +147,000 to +165,000, and the change for August was revised up from +201,000 to +270,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 87,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 190,000 per month over the last 3 months.
(BLS) Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 134,000 in September, compared with an average monthly gain of 201,000 over the prior 12 months. In September, job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)
Employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000 in September and has risen by 560,000 over the year.
Health care employment rose by 26,000 in September. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+10,000). Over the year, health care employment has increased by 302,000.
In September, employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 24,000. Job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000). Over the year, employment in transportation and warehousing has increased by 174,000.
Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+23,000). The industry has added 315,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up in September (+18,000), reflecting a gain in durable goods industries. Over the year, manufacturing has added 278,000 jobs, with about four-fifths of the gain in the durable goods component.
Within mining, employment in support activities for mining rose by 6,000 over the month and by 53,000 over the year.
Employment in leisure and hospitality was little changed over the month (-17,000). Prior to September, employment in the industry had been on a modest upward trend. Some of the weakness in this industry in September may reflect the impact of Hurricane Florence. (read more)
National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow discusses formally and informally: