Posted originally on Dec 18, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
A lot of people are fixed on what money is and presume somehow that a return to precious metals will solve the problem. Precious metals are for personal use. They have never prevented any society from systemic economic collapse. Do not confuse hoarding gold to preserve wealth with a gold standard. We had one with Bretton Woods. Governments printed and never adjusted the conversion ratio because they had to admit what they had done. The problem is not WHAT is money, the problem is regardless what money might be, politicians always spend more than what they have. The only practical solution is to eliminate the ability to borrow.
Debt has destroyed every empire, state, and city since the dawn of time. Hammurabi’s Legal Code created legal limits on interest, so borrowing was a problem from the dawn of civilization. The only solution to be realistic must address the outstanding debt while eliminating the capacity to borrow. Changing to a gold standard means the outstanding debt would be due then in gold. The bankers will love that. If we default, all pension funds will go to waste, and we will be looking at massive civil unrest.
We have to be practical. If we are going to follow dogma, you better dig a hole and don’t come out until the mushroom cloud subsides. This is real shit we are talking about! This is not an idealized theory. Every act will have an equal and opposite reaction.
I have stated many times that unemployment hit 25% during the Great Depression because of the Dust Bowl, and 40% of the civil workforce was employed in agriculture. We are at a similar risk today, but the 40% is in government, producing nothing toward national wealth, and are public servants because we pay them to produce nothing.
It is the implosion of state and local government, their inability to print into oblivion, that is the check against hyperinflation as they raise taxes and try desperately to hold on to their chiefdoms. Gold is for personal survival. Switching to gold does not address the debt, growing employment in government, the pensions, and our long-term survival.
So gold may help you survive personally as the economy switches to underground, but it will not address the decades of abuse suffered under Marxism. The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn (just being a little pregnant with Marxism).
Posted originally on Dec 17, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Our models do not indicate that food inflation will ease in 2025. In fact, I have repeatedly warned that people may want to stockpile food for the next two years as there will be weather events and supply chain shortages. Our model warns that we may see another severe drought, probably between 2025 to 2027, in both the US and Canada. The drought conditions are already beginning, and this is in line with our model, which warns it will expand into the 2025-2027 period.
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon announced last week that he expects persistent high prices at the grocery store. “I don’t know what the whole year is going to look like. I hope and I think it could be better as these commodities adjust — some of them,” he said per GroceryDrive. According to McMillon, he was “disappointed” at where food inflation was currently and cited that eggs and dairy were the main problems.
Food prices shot up during the pandemic and never fully recovered. Then the was in Ukraine hurt Europe’s food supply in a major way. In America, the Food Industry Association conducted a study that revealed food inflation in America rose 25% since the pandemic, and recently rose 1.1% on a monthly basis in November.
We then have those adhering to the climate change agenda reducing farmland and available cattle. They have repeatedly stated that humans simply consume too much meat, and our diets must change to reduce our carbon footprint.
Tariffs are inflationary and always hurt the consumer and have not helped in recent years. Additional tariffs will disrupt the supply chain and cause prices to rise. Obviously this is not limited to Walmart, the grocer who perhaps sells the cheapest goods in mass. Central banks are cheering that inflation has tamed but utterly ignore the persistently high cost of basic necessities like food.
Former Luzerne County, Pennsylvania judge Michael Conahan made his fortune by accepting bribes to imprison America’s youth. Conahan and fellow judge Mark Ciavarella Jr. ruined families to help fill the cells of for-profit juvenile detention facilities. Over 2,500 juveniles were sold off by these judges for $2.8 million. Conahan was sentenced to 17.5 years, a mere slap on the wrist compared to his offense. But Joe Biden believes this man should be free and granted him clemency.
These corrupt PA judges sent children to prison for minor, non-violent offenses. For many of these juveniles, they had never seen a courtroom before the day they were unlucky enough to appear before Conahan of Ciavarella. Now, Conahan had already been released on home confinement after citing he was in “grave danger” of catching COVID. “These commutation recipients, who were placed on home confinement during the COVID pandemic, have successfully reintegrated into their families and communities and have shown that they deserve a second chance,” Joe Biden stated.
Why should this dishonorable judge receive clemency when he deliberately gave children the longest sentences possible in exchange for cash? Some of his victims were under 13. Those who were released are suffering permanent psychological damage, and many were unable to finish high school.
One young man committed suicide while behind bars while serving a sentence for a minor drug charge, a charge that someone like Hunter Biden would never face. His mother, Sandy Fonzo, told reporters she was “shocked” and “hurt” by the president’s disgusting actions. “Conahan‘s actions destroyed families, including mine, and my son‘s death is a tragic reminder of the consequences of his abuse of power,” Fonzo told the Citizens’ Voice, a local outlet. “This pardon feels like an injustice for all of us who still suffer. Right now I am processing and doing the best I can to cope with the pain that this has brought back.”
There are clearly two tiers of justice in this country. Biden’s actions are sparking bipartisan outrage as NO ONE believes this judge should receive a “second chance” when he denied THOUSANDS of kids the opportunity to have one. Joe Biden may very well leave office as one of the LEAST popular presidents in modern history.
Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Inflation data is skewed and does not factor in the reality that the costs of basic necessities like food and housing have not waned significantly since COVID began. Shelter costs, in particular, have become unaffordable for the majority. Redfin recently reported that 74% of Americans earning under $50,000 are seriously struggling to maintain consistent payments on their rent or mortgage.
Nealy, a quarter of Americans earning under $50,000 annually regularly skip meals and delay healthcare to cover the rent or mortgage. Nearly a quarter have admitted that they can no longer afford to eat three standard meals per day because the money must go toward shelter. Around the same percentage said they have been forced to sell off their belonging to make ends meet. Around 25% said they have asked family or friends for a loan, while 19% received a monetary gift to cover housing costs. Eight percent moved in with their parents, 10% moved in with other family members, and 3% moved in with their adult children. Six percent were sadly forced to abandon their pets, and 4% stated they delayed having children because the costs were simply too high. Eating out at restaurants (-43%) and vacations (-36%) are no longer in the budget.
Around 21% of this demographic have delayed or chose to forego medical care due to financial reasons. This could expand to Americans in many income brackets as healthcare is a luxury service. Countless people who can afford it simply travel to other countries to receive healthcare. I hear this frequently with dental procedures that are not as time sensistive in particular.
Shelter costs spiked 7.9% from January 2022 to January 2023, marking the largest annual increase since 1982. Shelters across America have reported a 23% rise in people seeking emergency assistance from 2019 to 2023. The median home in the US now costs $420,400, but it is hard to gauge an average cost when home prices vary significantly by state and city. People living in New York, California, and Hawaii are more likely to spend 50% or more on household income on shelter costs. Rental costs remain 20% higher than they were before COVID, while the cost to buy remains up by 40%.
This is precisely why they fail to include shelter costs in the inflation data. We hear the central banks tout how inflation is at or near their target but they omit key data. The talking heads in government like Yellen who claim people are better offthan then before the pandemic are completely out of touch with reality.
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