Powell: “Rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 18, 2022 | Sundance

The sanctions against Russia have essentially been futile.  The Russian economy continues growing, oil sales continue taking place, imports and exports continue unabated, albeit with some inconveniences for the people inside Russia – but without impact on the Russian government.  However, what the western sanctions against Russia were successful in speeding up, was an alternative global trading system for 70 percent of the world economies who continue trading with Russia.

That’s the background for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to state yesterday, “rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar.”  Additionally, as the proverbial ‘west’ follows the corporate instructions from the World Economic Forum, Powell now expands his points to note the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is also being reviewed.  WATCH:

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this would happen.

Think of “The Great Reset” or “Build Back Better” or climate change, as examples of WEF instructions.

The NATO and western government response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, was a quickly assembled system of financial sanctions intended to cripple the Russian economy.  However, Russia responded to those actions with countermoves on the trade front, beginning to establish the first ever non-Euro and non-dollar-based trade system.  In essence, a financial trading system created by the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Therefore, if we think about the current status of geopolitics and international finance, the NATO/Western response now involves a priority of controlling and protecting the previously established financial structures of global trade.  A NATO effort to avoid the cleaving is now underway as an outcome of the sanctions against Russia.

[Left to Right] Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.

The finance ministers of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) decided to create their own financial mechanisms to continue trade between nations of similar disposition.  Once the internal issues inside the BRICS alliance are resolved, and once the mechanisms are created, then other nations will be able to decide to join or not.  The great global cleaving will commence.

(Reuters – April 2022) – Russia, hit by Western sanctions, has called on the BRICS group of emerging economies to extend the use of national currencies and integrate payment systems, the finance ministry said on Saturday.

[…] On Friday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told a ministerial meeting with BRICS, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, that the global economic situation had worsened substantially due to the sanctions, the ministry’s statement said.

The new sanctions also destroy the foundation of the existing international monetary and financial system based on the U.S. dollar, Siluanov said.

“This pushes us to the need to speed up work in the following areas: the use of national currencies for export-import operations, the integration of payment systems and cards, our own financial messaging system and the creation of an independent BRICS rating agency,” Siluanov said.

International payment cards Visa and MasterCard suspended operations in Russia in early March and Russia’s biggest banks have lost access to the SWIFT global banking messaging system.

Russia set up its own banking messaging system, known as SPFS, as an alternative to SWIFT. Its own card payment system MIR began operating in 2015.

[…] They were part of Moscow’s efforts to develop homegrown financial tools to mirror Western ones, to protect the country in case penalties against Moscow were broadened.

The finance ministry said BRICS ministers have confirmed the importance of cooperation in efforts to stabilise the current economic situation.

“The current crisis is man-made, and the BRICS countries have all necessary tools to mitigate its consequences for their economies and the global economy as a whole,” Siluanov said. (link)

For a deep dive on BRICS, as predicted by CTH, {SEE HERE}.  The bottom line is – the 2022 punitive economic and financial sanctions by the western nations’ alliance against Russia was exactly the reason why BRICS assembled in the first place.

The multinational corporate control of government is exactly what the BRICS group foresaw when they first assembled during the Obama administration.  When multinational corporations run the policy of western government, there is going to be a problem.

In the bigger picture, the BRICS assembly are essentially leaders who do not want corporations and multinational banks running their government. BRICS leaders want their government running their government; and yes, that means whatever form of government that exists in their nation, even if it is communist.

BRICS leaders are aligned as anti-corporatist.  That doesn’t necessarily make those government leaders better stewards, it simply means they want to make the decisions, and they do not want multinational corporations to become more powerful than they are.  As a result, if you really boil it down to the common denominator, what you find is the BRICS group are the opposing element to the World Economic Forum assembly.

The ‘western’ countries run by multinational corporations are in Yellow, the countries who have not yet chosen a side are in GREY:

The BRICS team intended to create an alternative option for all the other nations. An alternative to the current western trade and financial platforms operated on the use of the dollar as a currency.  Perhaps many nations will use both financial mechanisms depending on their need.

The objective of the BRICS group remains simply to present an alternative trade mechanism that permits them to conduct business regardless of the opinion of the multinational corporations in the ‘western alliance.’  The recent comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, are accepted against this backdrop.  The financial contest is now between two sets of competing forces.

It’s not so much a “great reset,” it’s more akin to a global cleaving.

In hindsight the inflection point was COVID and all of the western government allies following the same economic lockdown and massive govt spending program demanded by the WEF assembly.  The western group planned to exit their spending crisis through the “Build Back Better” agenda, a new world economic structure based on renewable energy.

The people behind Joe Biden are collapsing the U.S. economy in the ongoing drive to attain this new economic transformation.  The American people are suffering through the consequences with massive increases in energy costs which are driving the costs of everything else, including food.

Biden Falls Off Bicycle in Delaware


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 18, 2022 | Sundance 

The installed occupant of the White House, Joe Biden (79), fell off his bicycle during ride near his Rehoboth Beach home in Delaware Saturday morning. Biden and his wife Jill are celebrating their 45th wedding anniversary this weekend as the U.S. economy collapses around us.

Joe Biden was not injured and did not need medical attention according to the White House. {Daily Mail Article Here} The fall of Biden is an ironic metaphor for the current state of politics. “I’m good,” the president told the onlookers who watched his slow-motion tumble. WATCH:

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Speeding Ticket – Just Blame Putin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Man Blames Putin for Speeding Ticket

Tucker Carlson Interviews American Rancher about Extreme Kansas Heat Causing Cattle Loss


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 16, 2022 | Sundance

There have been several videos on social media about a significant loss of cattle in Kansas due to extreme heat.  During a segment on his broadcast tonight, Tucker Carlson interviews cattleman Steve Stratford about the circumstances and the potential impact to the U.S. beef supply.  WATCH:

Elon Musk Talks With Twitter Staff During All Hands Meeting, Video


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 16, 2022 | Sundance 

Project Veritas has published another recording of an internal Twitter all hands meeting wherein Elon Musk addressed thousands of employees for the first time since news broke of his plans to acquire the company. On the call, Musk described his affinity for Twitter and said the platform was best for “getting a message out” but noted that he was concerned about the platform as it currently stands, reiterating previous statements he’s made about bots, spam, and censorship.

“I think it’s essential to have free speech,” Musk said in response to a question about his highly publicized goal to bring free speech to the platform. When pressed about what that might mean in the context of animal abuse, sexual content and offensive tweets, Musk maintained his stance. “I think there’s also, there’s freedom of speech and freedom of breach, so I think people should be allowed to say … pretty outrageous things that are within the balance, the law, but, but then they don’t, you know, get amplified,” Musk added.  WATCH:

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CNN Puts Inflation into a Political Context


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance

The people controlling policy behind the Biden administration do not care about polling or political consequence.  Biden is the one-term disposable tool for their collective effort to fundamentally change the United States.  They have a singular focus on pushing the most destructive and consequential Green New Deal policy regardless of collateral damage.  For them, using Joe Biden is a one-way ticket.

That said, none of the current political officeholders within the Democrat apparatus are going to escape the blast radius from this chaos.  CNN runs a segment asking the question, how bad is the damage going to be from the Joe Biden economic policy?  WATCH (90 secs):

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Mayra Flores Victory in Rio Grande Valley Election Highlights Latino Rejection of Democrat Gender Sexuality Nonsense


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

Much is being made of Mayra Flores flipping Texas CD-34 (South Austin through Rio Grande Valley) from democrat to republican with a special election victory last night.  Indeed, a great many cocktail class republicans, those who couldn’t identify a taco without a bell next to it, are waxing philosophically about the political ramifications and what it means.

However, in ordinary terms, what Flores did was highlight a commonsense cultural disconnect between modern leftists and working-class Latinos who carry one of the best and most valuable dispositions for this day and age…. An unwillingness to pretend.

Men have penises and cannot have babies.  Women do not have penises and can have babies. That might sound radical given the incessant drumbeat from leftist, DC, Marxist democrats who manipulate sociology and science, but it’s the truth.

Spend time with any Latino group, family, friends or coworkers and start talking about the modern political left, and you will quickly find out this is one socioeconomic group who are not into this modern cultural pretending.  Their willingness to speak quiet truth is refreshing, even if they -at first- keep quiet until they see that you are not sold into the cultural ‘isms’ of madness.

Faith and family are important to the Latino community.  Additionally, a tradition of respect for pragmatic commonsense within the social fabric of the Latin and Mexican culture also inoculates them from gender nonsense.  It takes a few generations of American cultural infection before the commonsense synapse is numbed by the democrat drumbeat.

In order for modern democrats to continue advancing their insane ideology, they must pretend not to know things.  First generation Latinos do not have any reference point to join the democrat assembly of pretending.  Mrs. Flores tapped into that cultural truth and won easily; however, I doubt the professional republican party has any idea what that means.

(Via Politico) – […] Flores sailed to victory in Texas’ 34th District, where former Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela resigned from his seat in March to work for a lobbying firm. In one of the most Latino districts in the country, and one where Democrats have routinely won by comfortable margins for years, Flores garnered 51 percent of the vote, winning the special election without a runoff. The district lines are shifting for the next election in November 2022, but she will hold this seat until January.

Flores immigrated from Tamaulipas, Mexico when she was six years old and grew up in the Rio Grande Valley region. In addition to working as a respiratory care practitioner, Flores served as the Hidalgo County GOP Hispanic Outreach chair to increase and maintain Republican support among Latinos in the area — which has been ramping up in recent years.

Before Flores won her district Tuesday, President Joe Biden carried it by 4 points over Donald Trump in 2020 — a huge shift from the previous presidential elections under these district lines, when Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012 were blown out by 20-plus points each.

While Flores grew up seeing most of her immigrant family vote blue, she eventually realized her views on religion, abortion and border security were more in line with the Republican Party. (read more)

Biden Announces Another $1 Billion in Cash to “Help Ukraine Families Purchase Essential Items”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

The White House shares the contents of another phone call between Joe Biden and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today in a media release.  According to the details of the call, a generous Joe Biden has directed another $1 billion in aid to the laundry operation in order to assist Ukraine “families to purchase essential items.”

WHITE HOUSE – “This morning, I spoke with President Zelenskyy to discuss Russia’s brutal and ongoing war against Ukraine.

[…] I informed President Zelenskyy that the United States is providing another $1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine.

[…] We also remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian people whose lives have been ripped apart by this war. Today, I am also announcing an additional $225 million in humanitarian assistance to help people inside Ukraine, including by supplying safe drinking water, critical medical supplies and health care, food, shelter, and cash for families to purchase essential items.” (read more)

Get Beyond the Gaslighting – Media Now Falsely Claim Biden Administration Underestimated Negative U.S. Economic Impact from Russian Sanctions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance

I am tired and weary of the bullshit from every side of the political continuum -particularly the professionally republican idiots- that continue to hide the reality of the situation.  We are adults, let us talk honestly in the framework of reality; that will allow prudent preparation for the massive crisis we are about to experience.

When the tenant realizes they have a leaking fish tank, they realize they are going to be financially responsible for the water damage.  The tenant concocts a plan to avoid responsibility. The tenant intentionally loosens a pipe in the bathroom creating water damage, thereby hiding the fish tank leak.

The owner is now on the hook for the repair. The tenant escapes liability.

The people behind Joe Biden knew their radical transformation of energy policy was going to create massive economic damage.

The people behind Biden used the opportunity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict to trigger economic sanctions they knew would worsen the global inflation damage they were creating through energy policy.

Economic sanctions against Russia were as used as the broken pipe in the bathroom to hide the energy policy fish tank leak.  All of the media discussing the situation are now pretending not to know this.  The conservative pundits are a combination of pretending and too stupid to actually see what is happening.

BLOOMBERG – […] There’s no sign that administration officials feel their sanctions policy was a mistake or that they want to dial back the pressure. If anything, officials have said a key US goal is to ensure Russia can’t do to other nations what it has done in Ukraine. 

But the collateral damage from the sanctions has been wider than expected. 

When the invasion began, the Biden administration believed that if penalties exempted food and energy, the impact on inflation at home would be minimal. Since then, energy and food have become key drivers of the highest US inflation rates in 40 years, a huge political liability for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party heading into November’s mid-term elections. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that she “was wrong” in believing last year that inflationary pressures would pass. One of the results that she’s now seeing is related to the spike in prices due to unexpected self-sanctioning, according to one person familiar with her thinking.

So while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has urged US businesses to cease operations in Russia, telling a joint session of Congress that the Russian market was “flooded with our blood,’’ the Biden administration has been encouraging some commerce, including for agriculture, medicine and telecommunications. For instance, the US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer, according to people familiar with the efforts, as sanctions fears have led to a sharp drop in supplies, pressuring food costs. (read more)

Bloomberg is running this article as a distraction, directly implying the Biden administration did not realize how much additional damage the sanctions against Russia would create.  There are many articles of a similar nature by multiple outlets.  All of them are designed to ignore the reality of the situation.

We are rapidly assembling data now that will allow us to give CTH readers a real-world estimate of just how damaging things are going to be.

Tracking raw materials, supply chain costs, distribution limits, advanced and sequential purchase orders, as well as inbound costs associated with the supply chain for essential goods and services, we are nearing enough data to make a prediction.

In the fall of 2021 CTH was able to provide a 100-day countdown window to the first major wave of inflationary impacts.  Purchase orders cycling in net terms of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days allowed us to see the increases in product costs that were aggregating in the supply chain.  Readers watched in real time as those weeks and months passed giving us the exact outcome we expected.

While we still need a little more data to make the best possible prediction for the next 120-day forecast, I am relatively certain we can give an advanced estimate today.

A current shopping cart of traditional staple items at the supermarket (full basket) is roughly $300 representing about a $75 increase in price since early January 2022.   The $300 typical basket is essentially enough product to create 10 days of multiple purpose meals for the average family (4 people).

Using that $300 basket as the new baseline, I can predict the next wave of price increases will drive that single basket cost to $500 by late fall.  This is the scale of inbound inflation that is going to arrive at approximately the same time as the mid-term election.

As you can tell, the next wave of price increases is significantly larger than the two that preceded it.  The $300 shopping cart is going to cost around $500 when all of the increased costs are fully matriculated in the retail supply chain.  This is the scale of food store inflation you should be preparing for now.  Offsetting this cost increase is the challenge you should be considering right now.

More details will follow, but the final numbers are going to be close to this scale.

Retail Sales Turn Negative in May Reflecting Continued Contraction Within Economy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 

The U.S. economy is 70% driven by consumer spending.  When consumers stop spending the economy shrinks, it is that simple.  The U.S. Dept of Commerce has released the May retail sales [pdf DATA HERE], showing a 0.3% drop in retail sales for the month.  If you are interested in details, look at Table-2.

The critical point to remember is this sentence extracted from CNBC, “the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which increased 1% for the month on the headline number and 0.6% excluding food and energy.”  Everyone ignores this point, and every MSM economist pretends not to know it.

Retail sales -as measured in units purchased- have been in a contracting position since June of 2021.  When the current data shows a drop of -0.3% in May, the actual drop in retail sales is much, much greater.  The dept of commerce calculates retail sales in dollars.  When prices are 20% higher and sales are low, retailers are selling less stuff (less units) at higher prices.  This has been the reality of our economy for several months.  This is also why productivity has been declining for more than a year.

If you take the 8.6% inflation rate (far understated) and an aggregate drop in sales of 0.3% (again, far understated as a measure of inflation), that means consumers are spending limited incomes on critical or essential purchases like housing, food, fuel and energy.  Consumers are not purchasing durable goods; people are hunkering down.

Yearly retail sales (May ’21 compared to May ’22) are +8.1%.  However, yearly retail inflation for the same period is +8.6%.  Again, reflecting that less stuff is being purchased inside the economy at higher prices.  If the commerce dept was measuring actual units being purchased, we would be seeing massive drops in sales.

(Via CNBC) – […] Advance retail and food service spending fell 0.3% for the month, below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% gain. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.5%, which fell short of expectations for a 0.8% increase.

The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which increased 1% for the month on the headline number and 0.6% excluding food and energy.

Sales were well below the pace in April, which posted a downwardly revised 0.7% increase from the initial 0.9% estimate.

Spending for the month declined even though sales at gas stations increased 4% due to fuel prices that scaled new heights, with regular unleaded hitting $4.43 a gallon in May and now running around $5. That growth was offset by a 3.5% decline at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Miscellaneous store retailers saw a 1.1% drop in sales, while online stores posted a 1% decline. Bars and restaurants registered a 0.7% increase, part of a broader trend that has seen spending gradually shift from goods back to services.

On a yearly basis, sales were still up 8.1% as spending, combined with higher prices, has put a floor under the numbers. Consumers have been resilient through the inflation wave, using savings to compensate for the higher costs. (read more)

The people within the economic bureaucracy, that are aligned with the political ideology of the Biden administration, are going to lie on the second quarter statistics in order to protect the administration.  The Q2 data is going to be heavily manipulated by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept of Labor, Dept of Transportation and Dept of Commerce in order to hide the second quarter results.

Import data will be manipulated to help hide the GDP contraction.  The rates of inflation within the economy will be manipulated downward in order to help hide the GDP contraction.  All of the agencies aligned within government will manipulate the data in order to avoid a Q2 contraction which, when added to the Q1 contraction, would mean we are in a factual recession.

We are in an abusive relationship with our own government.