Jim Cramer on Bear Stearns (2008)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Sep 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This is a reminder of why I warn against listening to the talking heads. Unlike advanced AI software, these mouthpieces speak from a biased perspective. On March 11, 2008, Jim Cramer told his audience on CNBC’s “Mad Money” that “Bear Stearns was fine!” At the time, the stock was going for $62 before crashing down to $2 only five days later.

When a viewer wrote in to Cramer to ask about Bear Sterns experiencing a liquidity crisis, Cramer shouted: “NO, NO, NO! BEAR STEARNS IS FINE! DO NOT TAKE YOUR MONEY OUT! If there’s one takeaway, Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” He added, “I mean, if anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly.”

Cramer later tried to claim he never said to buy the stock, but was simply discussing the banking sector. He was trying to prevent a panic, he claimed. In reality, this man has repeatedly made poor calls, yet still remains on air. His screaming tirades are interrupted by commercials and his show is nothing more than the QVC of stocks.

Cramer is an entertainer. Even if I were to go on TV and make forecasts solely from my own viewpoint, I would be doing a disservice to my audience. If you’re looking for true analysis, then there is only one tool that is unbiased and capable of tracking every market around the world.

Food Stamps for US Soldiers


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Washington acts perplexed as to why recruitment is nearing a record low. Food inflation is on the rise across the world, increasing 10.9% in the US over the last year. This marks the largest 12-month spike in food prices since 1979. The food at home index spiked 15.8%, cereals and bakery goods rose 15%, and dairy products rose 14.9% in the past year alone. Service members who rely on government pay, not adjusted for inflation, are struggling.

This may come as a surprise – the Pentagon believes 24% of enlisted personnel are food insecure. How on Earth could the US expect to maintain a strong military when nearly a quarter of members cannot provide their families with food? The military budget is certainly not hurting for funds.

The US Army is now recommending that service members apply for food stamps. So, instead of using the funds from the military budget, the government wants to take those funds from a program designed for low-income individuals.

With inflation affecting everything from gas prices to groceries to rent, some Soldiers and their families are finding it harder to get by on the budgets they’ve set and used before,” the guidance written by Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston reads. “Soldiers of all ranks can seek guidance, assistance, and advice through the Army’s Financial Readiness Program.”

Grinston goes on to recommend resources for managing debt, spending, and taxes. Soldiers can request to receive a 6% interest rate cap on debts incurred prior to serving. This includes credit cards, loans, and mortgages. Take advantage of this service and any military benefits if you have the opportunity.

It is a shame that the men and women fighting for our country are surviving on food stamps. Maybe instead of paying off military contractors, sending endless funds to foreign nations, and “10% to the big guy,” the US government can help those who risk their lives to serve and protect our diminishing freedoms.

Deutsche Bank CEO Says a Recession is Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany Re-Posted Sep 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yet another head of the financial system is coming out and warning that a recession is inevitable. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing echoed the words of BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey and blamed the coming recession on the war in Ukraine. “We will no longer be able to avert a recession in Germany. Yet we believe that our economy is resilient enough to cope well with this recession — provided the central banks act quickly and decisively now,” Sewing said.

Going a step further, Sewing blamed China along with Russia. “When it comes to dependencies, we also have to face the awkward question of how to deal with China. Its increasing isolation and growing tensions, especially between China and the United States, pose a considerable risk for Germany,” he warned. Around 12% of German imports and 8% of exports come and go from China. Sewing would like to see a declining dependency on China rather than strengthening their relationship.

Neither China nor Russia are to blame for Germany’s situation. Russia was simply a diversion to draw attention away from the collapse of the European economy. Negative interest rates beginning in 2014 wiped out pension funds and proved that the central bank was not thinking long-term. COVID restrictions killed the supply chain, and Germany’s insistance in backing Ukraine eliminated what could have been a lucrative pipeline. Had the pipeline gone through, Europe would not have an energy crisis! Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest. Politicians have been working hard to create war with Russia deliberately, all cloaked in their real objective of controlling the planet.

When the energy crisis is unavoidable for the average person and the standard of living declines, the politicians will point to Russia and China. The decline began long before Russia lined the border of Ukraine, and China is demonized for simply existing. They would never blame their fiscal mismanagement or detrimental policies for the undoable damage they have created. If Germany falls, all of Europe will follow.

EU Central Bank Raises Interest Rate 75 Points in Further Effort to Withstand Storm of Energy Driven Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 8, 2022 | Sundance 

Energy inflation continues to pummel all western nations as they chase the climate change agenda. Today, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates to support the goal of lowered economic activity.   Lowering economic activity lowers energy use.

Absent of any desire to raise energy supply and/or energy production, monetary policy can support the goal of lowering energy use by driving down all economic activity.

In the big transition picture, the economies within the western alliance must be reduced until they match the energy output of windmills and solar farms.

FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank raised interest rates by the largest amount since the early days of Europe’s currency union, moving aggressively to combat record inflation even as an energy crisis puts Europe on the brink of recession.

The bank said in a statement that it would increase its key rate to 0.75% from zero—its second hike this year following a 50-basis-point rise in July—and signaled that further rises were likely over the coming months.

At a news conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that inflation was spreading beyond energy to a range of products. She said the ECB was ready to increase rates aggressively over the next several meetings.

“We want all economic actors to understand that the ECB is serious” about combating high inflation, Ms. Lagarde said. (read more)

A few months ago, amid all of the headline warnings about inflation and prices of essential products, CTH noted that if we were to continue waiting about six months, we would see a massive backlog of unsold goods and as a consequence the prices of non-essential durable goods would begin a rapid decline.  That exact scenario is unfolding. Keep watching.

Keep in mind, this is not necessarily a collapse of total global economic activity; what we are seeing is a collapse of western nation economic activity that is impacting the rest of the world.  A great economic fracturing is taking place as the western nations intentionally shrink their economy.  The supplier nations are feeling the consequences.

All of this economic turmoil is running on an identical track -on a global basis- because the entire western plan was coordinated and followed.  What we are seeing right now is the outcome of the “Build Back Better” roadmap.  The “global inflation” is the outcome.

Joe Biden is blocking domestic energy production as he follows through with the agenda of the Green New Deal.  In Europe, not coincidentally demanded by Biden, a similar outcome comes from the sanctions and blocking of Russian energy resources.

One could make a reasonable argument that the team behind Joe Biden specifically wanted the EU sanctions against Russia, because the U.S. crew wanted to keep both industrial economies mirroring each other as the U.S. energy system was dismantled.  It would make sense to avoid a spotlight on the U.S. economic collapse, by forcibly pushing the EU economy into the same situation.

Taking that line of geopolitical and economic consequence one step further, and that would be part of the strategy -albeit undiscussed- behind having a consistent global cap on the price that any nation could pay for Russian oil.  That approach is not about punishing Russia, it is to make all of the economic pain and problems equal amid all western nations.  Globalists, and the central bankers, are good at creating economic systems to deliver equitable misery.

Coinbase Crackdown


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Aug 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Comment: I use Coinbase to hold some crypto. They sent me an email saying that my account that I had for years would be limited to withdrawals only if I do not give them updated government ID and download the latest version of the application. I use this on my PC and do not have the application. I worry they’ll take what is left of my failing cryptos. Luckily I only put “play money” into these holdings but I imagine others will experience losses and frozen accounts in the near future. The deadline they gave me was October – not sure if that is for all. I messaged out to Coinbase for help updating my account but cannot fully verify it after many tries.

Reply: Government hates cryptocurrency. They have always been concerned about their ability to squeeze out every last penny in taxes from crypto. I am not surprised that Coinbase is emailing users for additional documentation days after the Inflation Reduction Act was passed. With nearly 88,000 new IRS agents, there will certainly be teams of hundreds or thousands of accountants who will analyze all crypto holdings.

The initial idea behind the creation of crypto has been lost. I warned in March on our private blog on Socrates that cryptocurrencies may be suspended altogether one day. Biden could sign an Executive Order to regulate cryptos because countries like Russia can use it to circumvent sanctions. Not only is Biden authorizing the regulation of digital currencies, but he is also instructing to move forward with a central bank cryptocurrency. Once that is done, all other cryptocurrencies will be seized and folded into the government’s crypto. There will be no competition.

The Biden Administration Urges Struggling Families to Buy Solar Panels


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Aug 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Similar to Pete Buttigieg’s braindead suggestion to simply buy an electric vehicle to combat energy inflation, the White House is now offering another solution for Americans crippled by inflation – stop being poor. While they did not say these words verbatim, their ideas behind taming inflation among low and middle-earning Americans are completely out of the realm of reality. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm patted the Democrats on the back for passing the Inflation Reduction Act.

“If you are low income, you can get your home entirely weatherized through the expansion from the bipartisan infrastructure laws, a significant expansion — you don’t have to pay for anything,” Granholm said, toting government rebates. Solar panels can run anywhere from $15,000 to $25,000 for an initial setup. Is this something people with little disposable income can afford? How about the growing number of renters who do not have this option even if it were “free.”

Granholm offered more belittling advice for the middle class. “If you are moderate income, today you can get 30% off the price of solar panels. Those solar panels can be financed, so you don’t have to have the big outlay at the front … it’s a significant incentive.” Oh wow, a 30% discount and only a six to 12-month wait for the tax credit! Forget about basic shelter costs and food, go ahead and finance expensive solar panels as your family starves on the streets.

This administration is completely out of touch with the needs of the American people. They have done absolutely nothing to lower energy inflation and are now gas lighting the people to believe WE can do more to combat prices not seen in 40 years.

Our Plan is More OBVIOUS Than Ever! – News Update


Awaken With JP Published originally on Rumble on July 26, 2022

Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum are trying to block the sun? This and more news that should worry you in this week’s update!

Interview: An Introspective Look At The Collapsing Republic & Push For Global Totalitarianism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Aug 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

“Massive civil unrest in the US starting in 2023, Word War 3 on the horizon, inflation to only get progressively worse, and the elites going all out to push their Great Reset on humanity. Legendary economic forecaster and astute scholar of history and human nature Martin Armstrong speaks with Ryan McCormick from The Outer Limits of Inner Truth (https://www.outerlimitsradio.com/martinarmstrong) to discuss his predictions and insight on the topics above.

Armstrong reveals what to expect and what people can do in the volatile years ahead. Also, if we can weather the storm till 2032, things should clear up, and humanity should be knee-deep in a peaceful enlightenment period by 2040.”

Why Do Democrats Create More Laws That Harm Society?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Aug 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Shakespeare’s famous line was: “The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.” To put that in its proper context, only the king had an attorney, so they were prosecutors. When we look at the real difference between Republicans and Democrats who enter politics, it becomes an indictment against the legal profession. Lawyers are adversarial by nature and are thus trained to try to win at all costs.  Likewise, law enforcement officers are trained to look for illegal activity. They are trained to observe. One friend I knew who was a policeman said that everyone was guilty of something.

One legal professor even wrote a book on that subject – “Three Felonies a Day.” That is the entire problem. There are so many laws that everyone commits something that would justify their arrest every day. For example, adultery is technically illegal in 21 states. Cheating on your spouse in Idaho, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin, among others, have felony charges against it. Adultery, or having an intimate relationship with someone other than your spouse, is a Class 3 offense in Arizona, and a sentence of up to 30 days in prison is possible. To be charged with a felony then deprives you of owning a gun or ammunition. So, adultery and just possessing a gun or ammunition will land you in prison for five years. I saw a Vietnam Vet get five years because he had an empty shell from Vietnam on a chain around his neck, and he was sentenced to five years in prison as the prosecutor claimed he could fill the drilled holes, pour in gunpowder, and that was good enough for five years in prison.

That training given to lawyers when it comes to politics may be a huge conflict of interest that actually is anti-American. That adversarial training may work in litigation but does not work when representing the people in politics. Being trained to win at any cost creates has been what is at the root of the polarization and hatred that is now boiling up in our country. It tends to move against common sense and actually eliminates any legitimate debate, for it has devolved into — our way or no way!

In 2012, at the Republican National convention, Clint Eastwood made public his opinion of lawyers as he spoke to an empty chair that represented Barack Obama. “See, I never thought it was a good idea for attorneys to be president, anyway.” Lawyers actually are much more common in politics. Clinton was the 45th president and the 26th lawyer to hold the position of president. Indeed, 60% of the U.S. Senate is lawyers, while 37.2% of the House of Representatives are lawyers. Together, that means that lawyers control 43% of the total votes in the country.

DEMOCRATS

Franklin Delano Roosevelt was an attorney, as was the fiery William Jennings Bryan (Thou Shalt Not Crucify Mankind on a Cross of Gold), who advocated inflation. Every Democrat vice presidential nominee since 1976, except for Lloyd Bentsen, went to law school.  Barack Obama was a lawyer. Michelle Obama was a lawyer.  Hillary Clinton was a lawyer. Bill Clinton was a lawyer.  John Edwards is a lawyer. Elizabeth Edwards was a lawyer.  Look at leaders of the Democrat Party in Congress: Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer is a lawyer. Former Senator Harry Reid was a lawyer. Indeed, even every Democrat presidential nominee since 1984 was a lawyer. Granted, Joe Biden, before he was senile, graduated at the bottom of his class. Al Gore graduated from Harvard, but he did not graduate Vanderbilt Law School.

REPUBLICANS

The Republican Party is different.  President Trump is a businessman.  President Bush 1 and 2 were businessmen. Vice President Cheney was a businessman. President Eisenhower was a 5-star General. The leaders of the Republican Revolution: Newt Gingrich was a history professor. Tom Delay was an exterminator. Dick Armey was an economist. Ex-House Minority Leader John Boehner was a plastics manufacturer. The former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is a heart surgeon. Who was the last Republican president who was a lawyer? Gerald Ford, who left office 31 years ago and barely won the Republican nomination as a sitting president, ran against actor Ronald Reagan in 1976.  The Republican Party puts forth more non-lawyers than Democrats.

Apparently, Mitt Romney, who was very anti-Trump, had a joint degree from Harvard’s Law and Business Schools. It was the lawyers in the Republican Party who were against Trump, like Rubio. It was Rubio who was drafting legislation to impose sanctions on China if they aided Russia. I sent a letter warning that was a braindead response, but I did not get a response. Perhaps the idea fell apart. But Rubio is a lawyer, and the typical response is to write a law. That is our entire problem.

Once a law is put on the books, it remains there forever. Sarasota, Florida was the home of the Ringling Brothers Circus. The town passed a law that you cannot leave an elephant at a parking meter without paying the parking meter fee. In Pennsylvania, when driving on a country road at night, you must stop every mile and set off flares or other warning signals and then allow 10 minutes for livestock to clear the road. There are still places where if you are driving down the road and your car frightens a horse, you must pull off the road. If the horse is still frightened, you must dissemble it. In Alabama, it is illegal to drive your car while blindfolded. I suppose that must have been a huge problem. When you are in West Virginia, if you ran over a squirrel, it’s legal to eat your road kill or anyone else’s. Lawyers in government can’t resist writing laws.

The Democratic Party is made up of mostly lawyers who attack those who create wealth, big and small. Perhaps this is the entire problem. The nation has been polarized because that is the very training of a lawyer to be adversarial. Are the Democratic lawyers looking at those who create wealth to be exploited by the slip-and-fall claims? Those who create wealth by starting a small business that provides 70% of employment are looked upon as evil, greedy sorts of people as the enemies of America. And, in the eyes of the Democratic Party, have we evolved into seeing the procession of official enemies grow with wealth that must be attacked? The Democrats do not rail against illegal aliens, and those who want a free ride burden the middle class.

Unfortunately, this is the natural consequence of viewing everything through the eyes of lawyers because of the very adversarial training and the view that everyone is really guilty. Lawyers do solve problems by successfully representing their clients, which, in this case, should be the American people as a whole, but they seem to see it as only those who vote for them. Lawyers seek to have new laws passed, they seek to win lawsuits, they press appellate courts to overturn precedent, and lawyers always parse language to favor their side. Confined to the narrow practice of law, that is fine. But it is an awful way to govern a great nation.

The problem with lawyers in government is that they inherently begin to view some Americans as clients and other Americans as opposing parties. This is why we are plagued by their use of the legal system in our lives which has become all-consuming.  Some Americans become adverse parties to our very government, and they must then be punished. Somehow we have to change this perspective, for it is polarizing society and converting our equal justice for all into an adversarial legal batter with everything from abortion to taxes.

Unfortunately, lawyers have a place in the private world, but in politics, it is turning our nation into an adversarial mud-wresting match to the death. They fight to the death over appointing people to the Supreme Court which in itself demonstrates that there is no RULE OF LAW; it is always just an opinion. When I was in the gold business, State Senator Walter Foran asked me to write the law for the State of New Jersey to make gold not taxable under the sales tax. I wrote the law stating gold was not taxable unless “converted to use” and the sales tax Nazis stormed my business, seized my records, and then demanded sales tax on over 3,000 transactions. I went to court and lost. They would not allow me to testify because it was “irrelevant.” I may have misinterpreted what the Senate asked me to write. Their interpretation was that “converted to use” was “investment use,” and the judge ruled in the State’s favor. Senator Foran demanded to testify on my behalf, but they would not allow him to testify as a senator. My request to subpoena the Senate was denied as unreasonable. The prosecutor, after the case said, “Sorry, nothing personal. This is how we make law.”  I retired and did not want to be then harassed every year.

Our society is drowning in laws that judicial decisions have distorted our freedom and the legal system has been carried on the back of those it oppresses. It has invaded every part of our once private lives with lockdowns and mandatory vaccines that have benefited those who bribe our so-called representatives. The place for laws and lawyers remains in the private sector – not the government. Once in power, they see every solution warrants a new power and law.

This Democratic Administration, the same one that just raided Trump’s estate to prevent any documents from coming out about RussiaGate and their behind-the-curtain machinations, has now filed a lawsuit against Arizona, claiming that a new state law that requires voters to show proof of U.S. citizenship in order to cast a ballot in presidential elections is unconstitutional. We cannot simply cross the border and go vote in Canada. Yet, according to this Biden Administration, anyone can come and vote in the United States, and you do not have to prove who you are. This is what I mean where law disregards all common sense. We live now in total chaos.

We are witnessing the total destruction of not just common sense, but of the society we once called America. We cannot repair our society, for that change cannot be brought by lawyers who now control our very future. Einstein warned, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ”

Our modern world is falling into the same trap that destroyed the Byzantine Empire. They created so many laws that they often said that they employed more tax collectors than there were people left to pay taxes. Even in computer science, in a distributed network, you solve a problem by reaching a consensus despite the presence of nodes that disagree. Today, the danger of democracy has always been the fear that the majority will oppress the minority. That has become the objective today in politics, and I fear it has become the norm because we have too many lawyers who see the world in an adversarial confrontation.

The United States has only 5% of the world’s population but 66% of the world’s lawyers!  Tort (Legal) reform legislation has been introduced in congress several times in the last several years. It has been an unreachable quest to limit punitive damages. People spill hot coffee on themselves and then sue the establishment. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical companies pay bribes to ensure their immunity. This legislation has continually been blocked from even being voted on by the Democratic Party because they are the party with an overwhelming number of lawyers who will never vote against their own self-interest. No different from Goldman Sachs installing people in every department they can deal with finance. It is a warning g sign that 99% of the political contributions from the American Trial Lawyers Association go to the Democrat Party. The ABA Journal also confirms that trial lawyers donate to the Democrats – not Republicans.

Without term limits, we are simply doomed. We cannot bar attorneys from running for office. We just have to understand that the legal system is trained to be adversarial, and this is why the nation is on the brink of civil war. Courts were there to keep society “civil” where disputes were to be resolved civilly. The courts are no longer impartial, and judges have way too much power just to seal records and refuse to allow the people to see the truth.

Lawyers are a necessary part of society. My father was a lawyer. But we cannot allow this training in adversarial confrontation to consume the entire society. Even the conflict with Russia reflects this win at all cost doctrine and refusal to negotiate or compromise. The bottom line with lawyers in government is that they also know how to craft laws and then circumvent them. As I have said before, I was invited by Edmon Safra to the IMF dinner in DC where he rented the entire National Gallery. It was illegal to buy a politician dinner, so you could have lobster, filets, whatever. As long as we stood, it was not considered a dinner but Hor D’erves.

This is the problem. When the Democrats seek to plunder the rich, it becomes their way of life. They no longer know how to run for office withing promising to tax the evil rich. They create for themselves a legal system that authorizes their progressiveness denying equal justice for all and a moral code that glorifies discrimination based on wealth which is somehow justified.