The Fed Does Not Back Down


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, it’s refreshing to have Socrates that is totally unbiased. It projected continued rising rates into next year and the Fed just proved its point. It is not backing down.

Thank you. Socrates is very enlightening.

GS

ANSWER: I know there were a lot of talks that surely the Fed had to lower rates and start QE all over again. Most of those sorts of comments have no real experience in markets. They just mouth a lot of hot air. Perhaps instead of putting masks on cows, we should do that on the shills. The Federal Reserve had no choice but to raise interest rates although it was just by a quarter point. Not to do so and the Fed would lose all credibility and the market would then not take them seriously.

You MUST understand that this crisis has unfolded because too many banks were wrapped up in WOKE culture and hired people who were UNQUALIFIED to run risk management. Some were more excited about cross-dressing as a woman and winning the Rainbow award in banking than actually protecting the bank from the risk of rising interest rates.

In a statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, Fed officials acknowledged that recent financial market turmoil is weighing on inflation and the economy, though they expressed confidence in the overall system. “The US banking system is sound and resilient.” They had no choice but to make this statement.

“Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain.”

The Fed is saying that their rise in rates will in fact reduce inflation and economic activity. The banks have this yield curve risk and that is different from the 2007-2009 crisis where the debt was based on fraud. Here, the debt is US Treasuries so they are not going bankrupt from that aspect, but it is a liquidity crisis.

If these people who scream loudly but know nothing really about finance keep up the nonsense, they will only add to the uncertainly. This inflation is accelerating thanks to the war.

The Banking & Debt Crisis Continues


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The banking crisis continues and it is impacting funds that have been buying bonds. Allianz, a subsidiary of Pimco, is writing off countless millions with Credit Suisse bonds. The banking crisis has been the result of artificially low-interest rates for far too long and banks were used to free money and buy long-term bonds all because they were making their money on the spread. Now that rates are rising, their risk management was effectively nonexistent, and thus the losses and widespread.

The Allianz subsidiary Pimco is one of the largest asset managers in the world. They have to now write off a loss in Credit Suisse bonds and it’s ain’t over yet as we head into April 10th.

Kristi Noem Sends Warning About State Level Effort to Redefine Currency, Same Legislation Currently Hitting 20 States


Posted originally on the CTH on March 11, 2023 | Sundance

South Dakota Governor Krisi Noem appeared on Tucker Carlson’s television broadcast last night to send a warning to fellow governors.  According to the background story, the South Dakota legislature passed a bill redefining currency and creating rules for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that would block all other digital currencies from being used in the state.  Governor Noem vetoed the bill.

When asked why her legislature would do this, Noem responded the state politicians likely did not read the bill as it was constructed by lobbyists.  Noem is exactly correct and hits on a subject we have discussed here frequently {GO DEEP}.  However, one of the more alarming aspects to Noem’s discussion of the issue is that around 20 other states are considering similar legislation.  WATCH:

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Maker of Electric Jeep Vehicles Closing Illinois Plant and Moving to Mexico


Posted originally on the CTH on December 11, 2022 | Sundance 

Stellantis is a multinational automaker contracted for the electric version of the Jeep Cherokee.  Citing high costs to produce electric vehicles, on Friday Stellantis announced a decision to idle the Belvedere, Illinois plant starting on Feb. 28, 2023, and notified 1,350 workers of the layoffs.

(Via Fox) […] “This difficult but necessary action will result in indefinite layoffs, which are expected to exceed six months and may constitute a job loss under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. As a result, WARN notices have been issued to both hourly and salaried employees,” it said. “The company will make every effort to place indefinitely laid off employees in open full-time positions as they become available.”

Today The Daily Mail is reporting that production of the electric Jeep will take place in Mexico.

Hundreds of workers are expected to be laid off when automaker Stellantis closes an assembly plant in northern Illinois early next year, citing the challenge of rising costs of electric vehicle production.

The company, which employs about 1,350 workers at the plant in Belvidere, Illinois, said the action will result in indefinite layoffs and it may not resume operations as it considers other options. 

Stellantis said the industry ‘has been adversely affected by a multitude of factors like the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the global microchip shortage, but the most impactful challenge is the increasing cost related to the electrification of the automotive market.’

The Belvidere plant, produces the Jeep Cherokee SUV, will be idle starting on February 28, 2023, Stellantis said. The plant in Toluca, Mexico will now produce the vehicles. (read more)

One aspect of this move that deserves additional attention is the U.S. and Canada focus on new energy policy, against the backdrop of Mexico telling the Biden administration the USMCA partner was going to continue development of traditional oil, coal and natural gas energy production.

Should Mexico continue to maintain a more traditional energy policy, they will likely create a greater cost incentive for all manufacturers.  With electricity rates skyrocketing in the U.S. and Canada, any energy dependent manufacturer would see an additional advantage to production in Mexico.

It will be worthwhile watching this dynamic closely and seeing what type of pressure the Biden administration will apply to Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador to fall in line.

Jim Cramer on Bear Stearns (2008)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Sep 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This is a reminder of why I warn against listening to the talking heads. Unlike advanced AI software, these mouthpieces speak from a biased perspective. On March 11, 2008, Jim Cramer told his audience on CNBC’s “Mad Money” that “Bear Stearns was fine!” At the time, the stock was going for $62 before crashing down to $2 only five days later.

When a viewer wrote in to Cramer to ask about Bear Sterns experiencing a liquidity crisis, Cramer shouted: “NO, NO, NO! BEAR STEARNS IS FINE! DO NOT TAKE YOUR MONEY OUT! If there’s one takeaway, Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” He added, “I mean, if anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly.”

Cramer later tried to claim he never said to buy the stock, but was simply discussing the banking sector. He was trying to prevent a panic, he claimed. In reality, this man has repeatedly made poor calls, yet still remains on air. His screaming tirades are interrupted by commercials and his show is nothing more than the QVC of stocks.

Cramer is an entertainer. Even if I were to go on TV and make forecasts solely from my own viewpoint, I would be doing a disservice to my audience. If you’re looking for true analysis, then there is only one tool that is unbiased and capable of tracking every market around the world.

Food Stamps for US Soldiers


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Washington acts perplexed as to why recruitment is nearing a record low. Food inflation is on the rise across the world, increasing 10.9% in the US over the last year. This marks the largest 12-month spike in food prices since 1979. The food at home index spiked 15.8%, cereals and bakery goods rose 15%, and dairy products rose 14.9% in the past year alone. Service members who rely on government pay, not adjusted for inflation, are struggling.

This may come as a surprise – the Pentagon believes 24% of enlisted personnel are food insecure. How on Earth could the US expect to maintain a strong military when nearly a quarter of members cannot provide their families with food? The military budget is certainly not hurting for funds.

The US Army is now recommending that service members apply for food stamps. So, instead of using the funds from the military budget, the government wants to take those funds from a program designed for low-income individuals.

With inflation affecting everything from gas prices to groceries to rent, some Soldiers and their families are finding it harder to get by on the budgets they’ve set and used before,” the guidance written by Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston reads. “Soldiers of all ranks can seek guidance, assistance, and advice through the Army’s Financial Readiness Program.”

Grinston goes on to recommend resources for managing debt, spending, and taxes. Soldiers can request to receive a 6% interest rate cap on debts incurred prior to serving. This includes credit cards, loans, and mortgages. Take advantage of this service and any military benefits if you have the opportunity.

It is a shame that the men and women fighting for our country are surviving on food stamps. Maybe instead of paying off military contractors, sending endless funds to foreign nations, and “10% to the big guy,” the US government can help those who risk their lives to serve and protect our diminishing freedoms.