Iran – War – Socrates


QUESTION: I found your analysis in Iran v USA very interesting. Sometimes I do have to read between the lines. For example, you wrote: “We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.”  That implies you did not see anything prior to that warranting war. You added: “The Iranian leadership will not be deterred. This is a matter of pride. It does not matter what Trump warns. They will take action regardless of the costs.”

You also wrote that the war cycle involving Iran comes into play starting 2021.29. To me, you were saying not now.

Iran fired missiles and they now say their retaliation was proportionate. They did not kill any Americans but could claim they targeted American bases.

I met a former staff member of yours who said you had very long-standing ties into the Middle East going back decades. Is the fact that you did not specifically state there was an imminent threat of war implicit in your comment there was no concern until November 4, 2022?

PVB

ANSWER: If there was an imminent threat I would state so. Neither my sources nor Socrates reflected such an event. Iran realizes that the USA could literally blow them out of the water. There was a lot of back-channeling going on cautioning Iran not to get reckless from both Russia and China despite publicly disagreeing with the USA. There are often a lot of things taking place behind the curtain and there are some who want to know if Socrates is picking anything up in the capital flows that would indicate an imminent war.

This could change within the next two weeks on a small scale. The attack by Iran was to save face. They had to be seen as doing something. Trump was told this is simply how leaders must save face before their own people. This does not mean it is over. This will not be the last we have heard from Iran. They will act only when they have the support of Russia and China.

U.S. and Canadian Officials Now Confirm an Iranian Missile Shot Down Ukraine Air Flight 752…


It was only a matter of time before western intelligence agencies confirmed Ukraine flight 752 was shot down just north of Tehran by Iranian anti-aircraft missiles. The evidence was growing, and it was/is overwhelming.

Most of the passengers on the flight were Canadian or Iranian heading to Canada.  Today a somber Prime Minister Trudeau informed Canadians the aircraft was shot down.

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There were 176 passengers and crew aboard: 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainian passengers and crew, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three Britons on board. The nose of a Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) was identified in a debris field near the crash site.

CNN Breaking News

@cnnbrk

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Nick Short 🇺🇸

@PoliticalShort

“We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile. This may well have been unintentional.” – PM Trudeau https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-believes-flight-ps752-was-shot-down-by-iran-trudeau-1.4759850 

Canada believes Flight PS752 was shot down by Iran: Trudeau

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the plane that crashed in Iran Wednesday morning, killing all 138 people aboard, was shot down by an Iranian missile, potentially by accident.

ctvnews.ca

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CBS This Morning

@CBSThisMorning

: @CBSNews has learned U.S. officials are confident that Iran shot down a Ukrainian jetliner in the hours after the Iranian missile attack on U.S. targets.

176 people were killed, including at least 63 Canadians.

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Iran Refuses to Hand Over Black Box From Fatal Boeing Crash Near Tehran – Nose of SAM Missile Discovered Near Crash Site…


In the aftermath of Ukraine Airlines Flight 752 exploding and crashing just north of Tehran airport, the Iranian government is refusing to turn-over the black box flight data recorders recovered from the crash site.   Combined with the timing and location, their refusal is leading to increased speculation the flight may have accidentally been targeted by Iranian air-defense systems.  The tragedy is being compounded by Iranian politics.

The Boeing 737-800 is a very dependable aircraft with three decades of service.  This specific Ukraine aircraft was built in 2016 & just had a service inspection on January 6th. Immediately after the crash, Iranian officials stated the cause was “technical difficulties”, and after video surfaced showing the plane was on fire heading to the ground, Iran later stated the cause was one of the engines on fire.  However, there was no distress call or report of issue, from very experienced Ukraine pilots to Tehran air-traffic control.

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There were 176 passengers and crew aboard: 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainian passengers and crew, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three Britons on board. Additionally, what appears to be the nose of an M1 Surface to Air Missile (SAM) has been identified in a debris field near the crash site.

(source)

Translated@Azematt – “Local people where to shoot the first photo, take it inside the place of the father of Nazdiky, the place of the fall of the Ukrainian fall. @AshkanMonfared_   Farstadeh as it clearly divided the Central Bank of Moskur”

Ilham Adamy@ilhamadamy

Hot stuff, it says the debris of what looks like the Tor M1 SAM were found near the crash site of Ukraine Flight PS752. I’m not sure though, it’s quite unlikely that the warhead would remain intact (as suggested by the photo) after impact (with a passenger plane). https://twitter.com/Azematt/status/1214967566369730561 

Azim@Azematt

یکی از افراد محلی این تصویر اول رو از یک قطعه داخل جوب آب در نزدیکی محل سقوط هواپیمای اوکراینی برای@AshkanMonfared_ فرستاده که به وضوح قسمت کنترل یک موشک تور ام ۱ هست/

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CBC Politics

@CBCPolitics

Trudeau was asked if he could rule out that flight PS752 from Tehran to Kyiv was not shot down: “I can not,” he said: Read more here: https://www.cbc.ca/1.5418648 

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Iran v US a 40 Year Proxy War of Religious Hatred


Iran is not simply a military threat, it has been at the top of the list of cyber-terrorism. Iran has cyber troops that have long been waging a cyberwar and they are most definitely among the world’s most capable and aggressive cyber operatives. There was even talk behind the curtain that the real cyber-attacker during the US 2016 election was Iran redirecting their hacks through Ukraine – not Russia.  They are very capable of disrupting banking, hacking oil companies, they even covertly attempted to take control of a dam to create the appearance of a natural disaster. So far, Iran has stopped short of launching any major cyberattacks preferring to hold back for the USA would know where those attacks were originating.

The attack on Soleimani was a dramatic shift for an administration. Soleimani was frequently traveling with impunity to Iraq and Syria where he would coordinate strategic attacks on Americans in the past. An Iranian supported rocket attack killed an America contractor and this was followed by the US drone attack which claimed the lives of 27 militia members. It was Iran’s support which led to the attack on the American Embassy in Baghdad which is believed to have been ordered by Soleimani who has been traveling freely and coordinating attacks on Americans outside of Iran.

Trump warned on Twitter: “Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.” Mr. Trump added: “The USA wants no more threats!” We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.

The Iranian leadership will not be deterred. This is a matter of pride. It does not matter what Trump warns. They will take action regardless of the costs. They will pick their time. Otherwise, the leadership will appear to be weak and risk revolution by the youth who are suppressed.

Report: Six Saudi Nationals Arrested Following Attack at Pensacola Naval Air Station….


Following a possible terrorist shooting early this morning at Pensacola Naval Air Station, six Saudi nationals have been arrested.  Three of them were reported to have been filming the shooting. The shooter was armed with a handgun and was killed by sheriff’s deputies responding to the dawn incident at NAS Pensacola.

(Via Daily Mail) – Six Saudi nationals have been arrested after an Air Force trainee – also from Saudi Arabia – opened fire at a naval base in Florida, killing three people and injuring eight.

The men were detained near the scene of the shooting, which took place at Naval Air Station in Pensacola early Friday morning. It is currently unclear why they have been taken into custody.

Three of the six Saudis were seen filming the entire incident as it unfolded, a source told The New York Times on Friday evening.

No officials have yet stated whether any of them were students inside the classroom where the shooting occurred.

Authorities are probing whether the incident is terror-related.

The shooter, who was shot dead by police, was first identified by NBC News, citing unnamed sources, as Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani.

US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation, said the suspect was a second lieutenant attending the aviation school at the base.

Military from around the globe attend the Naval Air Station in Pensacola for flight training. (read more)

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Congressman Matt Gaetz is the Florida panhandle representative for the district that encompasses NAS Pensacola:

Polish Chef Used 5 Foot Narwhal Tusk to Help Bring Down London Bridge Terrorist…


There is a lot of background information surfacing about the London Bridge terrorist Usman Khan and the attack he carried out yesterday in the U.K.   However, one of the epic heroes who took down the terrorist is worth a highlight.

A Polish chef named Lukasz was working at Fishmongers Hall near the scene when he saw the terrorist attacking.  Lukasz grabbed a 5 foot narwhal whale tusk from the wall and used it as a makeshift lance while another bystander used a fire extinguisher to confront and ultimately take down the attacker.

A twenty-first century Polish chef using a narwhal tusk as a lance to stop a jihadist. Could you find a modern act of bravery more legendary and connected to the history of the tenth century Polish people?   I think not.  Simply, epic.

According to The Daily Mail “Lukasz is thought to have suffered from cuts but is not critically injured.” (READ)

 

Darren of Plymouth 🇬🇧@DarrenPlymouth

New footage of yesterday’s terror attack on .

Three members of the public armed with a fire extinguisher and a Narwhal tusk take the attacher down. Heroes.

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London Bridge Terrorist Kills Two, Five Wounded – Knife Wielding Jihadist Stopped by Public…


Two people were killed and up to five more stabbed as a terrorist used two knives to attack the public in London, England.  The attack happened near (and on) the London Bridge and the terrorist wore a dummy explosives vest.   Members of the general public tackled and disarmed the terrorist until police arrived moments later and shot him.

British authorities have confirmed the attack was a terrorist incident.  London Mayor Sadiq Khan has promised the British people he will write a strong letter of condemnation.

(Via Daily Mail) – Two innocent members of the public have died after a knifeman went on a rampage this afternoon in London.

Armed police shot dead a knifeman wearing a fake suicide vest today after he stabbed up to five people in a shocking terrorist attack as frightened crowds fled the scene.

Witnesses on the scene said the man had been brandishing two knives and had attacked people on the north side of London Bridge before running into the centre at around 2pm.

Dramatic video footage showed he was tackled to the ground by at least six heroic members of the public. Seconds later police told people on top of the suspect to move away, before dragging the last bystander to safety and opening fire. Officers were heard shouting ‘stop moving’ twice before shooting the man at close range.

One of the brave heroes was on the other side of the bridge and ran over to help, tackling the man and wrestling the knife off him. The suspect lay on the ground still moving as officers backed away – clearly fearing they were still in danger. (read more)

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Note the date:  2018…. Apparently something went wrong with the prior policies put into place to stop refugee jihadists from using knives to kill people.

France & the Uprising


QUESTION: Would you say that the majority of French are becoming anti-Islam?

GSD

ANSWER: No, of course not. The blackout of such protests does make it hard to gauge to what extend the French are rising up in protest. Then again, the standard rule of thumb is for every protester there are 10 who stayed at home.

The point is not to imply that the majority feel in that manner. The point is obviously that this is a rising trend or the government would not try to block media attention. So if it were just a fringe group, news of that would not be blocked for that does not reflect any meaningful segment of society.

No matter what country you look at, there are always people on both sides of the issue. Here is a note issued by Georgia that was backed by assets confiscated from people who had supported the king during the American Revolution. There is NEVER any such protest or revolution where 100% of the people are on one particular side. There will always be dissent and support of governments. You have the right to pick your side, although you may not have the right to publicly express your opinion.

France Blocks Reports of Protests Against Muslim Population


There is a rising discontent in France, which has the largest Muslim population in Europe. Many French see their language and culture as being suppressed by the politically correct government of Macron. The entire refugee invasion begun unilaterally by Merkel of Germany has changed the shape of Europe drastically. The French government prohibited the reporting of protests in France, calling them racist, despite the fact that Muslim is not a race any more than Christianity. Oh, how people love to throw that label around. They called Trump racist because of his wall with Mexico, despite the fact that Mexican is not a race any more than being American or French. This is simply a tactic to dehumanize the opponent and instantly label these people as evil.

White House Releases President Trump Warning Letter to President Erdogan of Turkey – October 9th…


President Trump prefers to use targeted economic weapons instead of the U.S. military forces against foreign adversaries.  This is especially true if foreign actions are taking place amid the complex circle of geopolitical interests, against the interests of allies.

Today the White House has released a letter sent by President Trump to President Erdogan of Turkey dated October 9th.   The letter was sent two days after President Trump made the decision to pull 28 members of the U.S. military out of harms way; two days before President Trump outlined the sanctions against Turkey; and five days before President Trump initiated those sanctions through Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

The warning is clear.  President Trump is clear-eyed about the motives and intentions of the Turkish president, and Ergodan’s ideological alignment with political Islam, via The Muslim Brotherhood.

One of the reasons this strategy is better than any military action is simply because Turkey is a unique NATO ally, and the NATO alliance within Europe is insufferably incapable and unwilling to take action to defend their interests.

European NATO members want the benefits of a perpetual U.S. military presence. That EU outlook is simply beyond the limits of what President Trump is willing to do.

President Trump wants to bring our troops home.

President Trump made it clear that any action by Turkey into Syria was unilateral; there will be no assistance by the U.S. on any aspect; including if Turkey was counter-attacked by Russia/Syria or organized Kurdish forces.

Essentially, Trump left Erdogan naked to a myriad of his enemies.

The U.S. part of the NATO shield is removed. The Europeans will not evoke the NATO defense treaty without the U.S. Heck, the EU is essentially spineless without the power of the U.S. military.  Additionally, President Trump is calling out the duplicity of the entire situation by calling all of their bluffs. President Trump is calling-out: NATO, weak EU ‘allies’ and Turkey.

In essence, this White House approach is a major Gordian knot being cut. It is unlikely President Erdogan expected to have this framework made so public.

With Europe refusing to stand-up to defend their own interests, President Trump is removing U.S. forces from the untenable position of guarding all the big cat cages, ad infinitum, to keep the zoo status intact.

Instead, President Trump is going to support the Arab coalition and the GCC that has been assembling a military coalition to protect itself from the Muslim Brotherhood.

That, along with the strategic need to keep global oil prices low to offset any influence by Iran and Russia, is why President Trump is willing to support Saudi Arabia with more troops; while simultaneously withdrawing from Syria where the U.S. was having to stand alone to protect the interests of Europeans who will not protect themselves.

In one regional area the U.S. will support and defend Israel, Egypt and Jordan. In the Southern region the U.S. will support the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen, Bahrain and Qatar).

Will political Islam likely have a resurgence in the region, and will Recep Erdogan rise as the head of the Ottoman Empire once again? The former is likely, the latter is unknown.

President Trump is correctly withdrawing U.S. troops from a position of adversarialism against a NATO member. Why should the U.S. protect the interests of allies who will not stand-up to protect themselves…

President Trump is correct.

President Trump will use economic weapons against Turkey…. And, in keeping with the economic doctrine, Europe is also in the cross-hairs. President Trump will use economic weapons against the EU for creating this mess, and refusing to defend themselves.

President Trump will use military weapons to protect allies that are: (A) willing to protect themselves, and (B) willing to pay for the support of the U.S. military protection.

It is really a common sense doctrine… Help those who help themselves.

This is one of those weird “be careful what you wish for” scenarios for President Erdogan, because in his lust to recreate the Ottoman Empire he just might get removed. By isolating Erdogan, President Trump effectively left him naked to an alliance of his enemies

After President Trump talked to Kurdish General Mazloum Kobani Abdi, the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, President Trump then discussed the options available to President Erdogan. As a result of that conversation, Erdogan requested the U.S. mediate negotiations.

Erdogan’s request happened immediately after President Trump signed an executive order [See Here] triggering the sanction authority of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.