You have written much about the period 1927-1929 dominated by the relationship between Monatgue Norman and Benjamin Strong; how pressure from Britain to keep rates in the US lower was intended to relieve pressure from Europeans fleeing for the US, attracted by our faster growth.
It seems eerily similar today, the conditions now with the US, first to restart after the lockdown, and Europe, which can’t get out of its own way. Stuck.
You remarked on the blog money is positioning now ready to make a move….as you have stated, higher rates are bullish…confirming strength in the economy, demand increasing, all bullish for stocks. What is missing is the Fed raising rates, or rather this time, the Fed having to follow, or worse, lose control of rates, which seems implied today…
Marty, if this is a replay, are we in 1927, 28…I assume 1929 is a long way off….
MS
REPLY: It seems to be close to the same timing of about two years, which would bring us to 2023. We can easily see that rates moved up from 3.5% to 6% at the Fed in hopes of stopping inflation. They have NEVER understood the markets or economy because they have relied on academics who only read books and have never traded.
My biggest problem here is that everything is upside down. To get such a crash in the stock market this time requires capital controls or a complete collapse in government and the financial system. During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds.
We are facing a collapse in public confidence in government. How will capital move this time around when capital is moving away from governments? Will we see it move into the private sector exclusively, or will there be a capital flight to China as it becomes the USA of the 1930s?
Posted originally on the Conservative tree house on June 23, 2021 | Sundance | 212 Comments
A statement made by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley defending the teaching Critical Race Theory to West Point cadets has gained some attention. However, the comments Milley made today actually reconcile several years of CTH watching Milley operate and having puzzling questions.
Remember, General Milley did some really odd things as Joint Chiefs Chairman under President Trump:
(1) Milley never removed Lt. Col Alexander Vindman from his White House post after the underling compromised his leadership position. The pentagon left Vindman on assignment to the NSC even after Vindman attempted to take-down President Trump.
(2) Milley was then slow to react to Navy Secretary Richard Spencer threatening President Trump; attempting to extort him into inaction over the disciplinary plans against the SEAL commando, Chief Petty Officer Edward Gallagher. And perhaps worst of all…
(3) Joint Chief Chairman Milley, SoS Mike Pompeo traveled to Mar-a-Lago in December 2019, where they informed President Trump of military strikes in Syria and Iraq *after* they took place. [Background Here] [Background Here]. President Trump made Esper, Milley and Pompeo hold a press conference without Trump supporting them; then President Trump remained silent on the issue for days.
It seemed like CTH was alone noticing the issues with the Pentagon and suspicions of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley. However, a few days after the Mar-a-Lago incident Col Douglas Macgregor expressed his own suspicions about the U.S. military attack in Iraq and Syria that paralleled our gut reaction. Macgregor stated he believed President Trump was being intentionally and “skillfully, misinformed”.
There were valid reasons for suspicion around General Milley and the entire Pentagon apparatus.
Factually, President Trump’s strategic approach toward foreign threats and foreign intervention (through the use of geopolitical economic pressure) was a major paradigm shift that removed the Defense Department from a primary role and placed them back into a more appropriate ‘contingency’ role, when it came to foreign policy and national security.
It was obvious from the outset of the Trump administration the Pentagon did not like that position.
Before explaining more, let us watch General Milley today outline his worldview on internal domestic politics. Note how Milley connects the teaching of Critical Race Theory to his view that people attempted to “assault” the DC Capitol and “overturn the constitution of the United States“. Watch this carefully because in many ways he is saying the quiet thing out loud:
In the big picture it was not difficult to figure out why the Pentagon would be opposed to Trump. During the Trump campaign and early administration President Trump’s expressed foreign policy was viewed by NATO alliance members as a threat. President Trump dared to tell them their “cold war mentality” was outdated. Heck, the NATO members were simultaneously purchasing energy from Russia at the same time they were demanding the U.S. military protect them from any Russian aggression.
The same type of common sense perspective that startled the NATO alliance members applied internally to the U.S. military.
President Trump’s preferred use of economic warfare made the Pentagon’s role diminished. Instead of punching North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, President Trump hit the checkbook of Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping (tariffs etc.) and then opened diplomatic discussions with the DPRK Chairman. Toward the threat from North Korea the primary military response became the contingency plan; President Trump engaged in economic leverage, not military…. and it worked.
As a consequence the value of James Mattis was replaced by the effectiveness of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Joint Chief’s Milley was not in the primary planning room; Milley was replaced by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (until he’s needed).
In the Trump era the President was telling the Pentagon where and when to position; and then asked them for ‘contingency’ preparation. Decades of Pentagon-centric foreign policy was lessened by an entirely new geopolitical approach based on an economic strategy. This was, in essence, the Trump Doctrine.
Take away power, or worse yet, stop using military power, and the leaders within the system start to sense their institution becoming functionally obsolescent. Overlay this military fear with pre-existing ideological differences and the situation gets worse.
Unfortunately, like all other issues in the era of hyper-polarization, normally liberal democrats would be alarmed about military leadership going rogue with their own agenda. However, as long as that agenda was anti-Trump, the political-left with a totalitarian outlook are now okay with it.
In 2020 Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden was openly asking the U.S. military to initiate a coup against President Trump. The corporate media didn’t bat an eyelash… The traditional checks-and-balances, things that normally keep us stable, started getting very sketchy within the military; this has only gotten worse in the past year.
Remember,… the impeachment effort was only a “soft-coup” until the uniformed military showed up. Yet these same Pentagon leaders have the nerve now to call a protest in DC, likely manipulated by the FBI, an insurrection “intended to overturn the constitution of the United States of America.” The one thing these leftist ideologues are good at is projection.
“Tell me again how we should “back the blue”, as we watch parents arrested at school board meetings. Tell me again that most FBI agents are good & legitimate, while we watch 15 agents investigate a garage pull-down cord while ‘known wolfes’ roam free. Tell me again. Please, keep telling me…. and when the order comes down to go door to door to collect citizens’ firearms, or to arrest citizens for wrong thoughts, our local police and military will follow orders”… and I will say “tell me again”, in handcuffs.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 20, 2021 | sundance | 128 Comments
With Joe Biden in the White House you can expect to hear the name “Blackrock” in the headlines connected to a variety of issues from real estate purchasing to green energy projects with massive domestic and international investments.
BlackRock, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries) is a massive publicly traded multinational investment firm with over $8.68 trillion in assets under management [December 31, 2020 financial statement] in more than 100 countries across the globe. To say that Blackrock is invested in globalism, climate change and leftist politics, would be a severe understatement {See Here}. Larry Fink is the CEO and people like Cheryl Mills, Hillary Clinton’s attorney of record, are on the board.
Inside BlackRock there is a division called the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) {See Here}.
Essentially the role of the BII is to tell BlackRock what is going to happen around the globe, and be the tip-of-the-spear in directing BlackRock where to invest money by predicting political events.
The Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute is Tom Donilon, President Obama’s former National Security Advisor (before Susan Rice), and a key advisor to Joe Biden throughout his career in politics.
You cannot get more deeply connected in the swamp financial schemes than Tom Donilon.
Donilon has been in/around government for 35+ years, deeply connected. Before joining the Obama administration Donilon was a registered lobbyist from 1999 through 2005 for O’Melvney & Myers. {Bio Here} Tom’s sole client was Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae is a government-backed private corporation that sells mortgages to investors.
Donilon took the lobbying gig because he was previously Executive Vice President for Law and Policy at Fannie Mae where he was responsible for Fannie Mae’s legal, regulatory, government affairs, and public policy issues. Tom Donilon’s BlackRock Biography reads like a who’s-who of connections to the swamp {READ HERE}
Here’s where it really gets interesting.
♦Tom Donilon’s brother, Mike Donilon is a Senior Advisor to Joe Biden {link} providing guidance on what policies should be implemented within the administration. Mike Donilon guides the focus of spending, budgets, regulation and white house policy from his position of Senior Advisor to the President.
♦Tom Donilon’s wife, Catherine Russell, is the White House Personnel Director {link}. In that position Donilon’s wife controls every hire in the Office of the Presidency.
♦Tom Donilon’s daughter, Sarah Donilon, who graduated college in 2019, now works on the White House National Security Council {link}
So let me just summarize this…. The Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute, the guy who tells the $8.7 trillion investment firm BlackRock where to put their money, has a brother who is the Senior Advisor to Joe Biden; has a wife who is the White House Personnel Director; and has a daughter who is now on the National Security Council.
Put another way… Tom Donilon’s literal job description for BlackRock is to: “leverage the firm’s expertise and generate proprietary research to provide insights on the global economy, markets, geopolitics and long-term asset allocation,” and his wife is in charge of White House personnel, his brother is Senior Advisor to the President, and his daughter is on the National Security Council.
You seeing this? Conflicts and insider information much?
The only thing missing is Hunter Biden being moved to the BlackRock board.
Now, I say again:.
Watch Where “BlackRock” and Biden Put Their Money…
Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 23, 2021 | Sundance | 262 Comments
If we can get the F-15’s and nuclear weapons out of the hands of the Chicago, New York and Los Angeles gangs we might be able to begin stopping the massive increases in violent crimes in those regions. So says the logic of Jibberish Joe, the most powerful man in what’s left of his own mind.
Apparently someone, probably a new staffer at the White House, woke up Jibberin’ Joe in the middle of his nap and walked him to a podium telling him to start talking about reducing crime. Much to the amazement of the enlisted audience, Ol’ Joe immediately started talking about gun ownership and how law abiding gun owners do not need 100 round magazines to fight against the anti-establishment ruminant clan (aka rogue battalions nationalist deer) who wear kevlar armor and hide amid the sage brush and trees of liberty.
Prior to the newly announced strategy to lower violent crime, the administration of Jibberish Joe announced they would empty jails for low-level criminal offenders, release federal prison inmates to protect them from COVID-19, stop the capture of illegal alien criminals, defund and redirect funds for law enforcement and drop the prosecution of drug crimes.
Apparently the White House and pearl-clutching media cannot draw a parallel between undermining/defunding law enforcement and massive increases in crime throughout the country. Instead, the administration will address the increases in carjackings, rapes, beatings, robberies, arson and homicide by making it more difficult for Americans to purchase firearms.
However, on a positive note, Jibberish Joe is the first President in U.S. history to promise to make it harder for Chicago gang members to purchase nuclear weapons. So there’s that. He might not have lost all his marbles, but there is a big hole in the bag.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2021 | Sundance | 163 Comments
Rasmussen has an interesting survey about election integrity issues [SEE HERE]. Within the survey the majority of likely voters support election audits including 71% of Republicans, 57% of Independents and 38% of Democrats.
Additionally, “[t]he new survey also found that 41% of voters still don’t believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election fairly”, that result is 7% higher than February when “34% of Likely Voters did not believe Biden won the election fairly.” It appears the number of people who now see the 2020 election fraud is considerably higher than a few months ago.
With that many Americans now holding the opinion Biden cheated, you can bet the Democrat machine, BlackRock Republicans, Intelligence Community, DOJ and other vested interests are paying close attention. The system cannot sustain itself with almost half the country organically believing the president is illegitimate. Considering how the media drumbeat a narrative that is entirely the opposite, the results of this survey are quite remarkable.
With thirty-eight percent of Democrats supporting election audits, the system in DC is tenuous at best.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 23, 2021 | Sundance | 179 Comments
The transparency of the political positioning and timing is obvious. Today, after months of obfuscation and avoidance, Kamala Harris announces she will visit the Texas-Mexico border only days ahead of President Trump’s border visit.
Interestingly -and not coincidentally- Harris is headed to the New Mexico, Texas, border region; about a thousand miles away from where the epicenter of the border crisis exists. It appears the administration is trying to keep her in blue areas that are less likely to see organized protests against the regime.
Remember, McAllen Texas just elected a Republican mayor, and in stark contrast to the media narrative the south Texas/Mexico border region (80%+ Latino/Mexican) voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in 2020.
WASHINGTON DC – Vice President Kamala Harris is heading to the U.S.-Mexico border this week, amid an unrelenting chorus of criticism from Republicans over her failure to visit there.
Harris, who was tasked by President Joe Biden to lead diplomatic efforts to stem the flow of migrants arriving on the southern border, will make a stop in El Paso, Texas on Friday, according to sources familiar with the trip. She is expected to be accompanied by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. (read more)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house onJune 23, 2021 | Sundance | 263 Comments
They are saying it was suicide; however, John McAfee didn’t kill himself…. no way. For years McAfee was a romantic outlaw, rough around the edges and a little weird at times, but he also consistently said various elements of the U.S. government were out to get him.
McAfee even put a tattoo on his arm saying he would not kill himself. That is how certain he was that someone, some entity, would eventually want to shut him down.
McAfee was under securities charges for making money by recommending investments without disclosing his relationship to the investment. The charges were always a little weird, and the claims of tax evasion never amounted to enough to warrant the severity of the effort to capture him, but the U.S. was adamant about getting him extradited. Nothing about this sniffs right. Nothing.
(Via ABC) – John McAfee, founder of McAfee Antivirus, was found dead in his cell in a Spanish jail, his lawyer confirmed to ABC News. The Spanish Interior Ministry also confirmed the death.
McAfee, 75, who was a household name in computer security software, faced securities fraud charges and extradition to the U.S. at the time of his death. Between November 2017 and February 2018, McAfee leveraged his fame as a computer programmer to make more than $23 million by recommending a number of “initial coin offerings” to his Twitter followers, federal prosecutors said.
The problem, according to prosecutors, was that McAfee failed to disclose he was a paid pitchman and promoting an investment product without disclosing you’re being paid to do so is unlawful. (read more)
Getting subtle messages from U.S. officials saying, in effect: "We're coming for you McAfee! We're going to kill yourself". I got a tattoo today just in case. If I suicide myself, I didn't. I was whackd. Check my right arm.$WHACKD available only on https://t.co/HdSEYi9krq🙂 pic.twitter.com/rJ0Vi2Hpjj
Lori Lightfoot is the mayor of the nation’s third biggest city Chicago. She’s not fit for the job.
She favors defunding her own police department in a city with a skyrocketing murder rate. There were 700 homicides in 2020 alone. Naturally she blames guns rather than her anti-police sentiments. She simply wants to grab the guns.
There have been stories of her mistreatment of district aldermen who make up the city council. She’s been brusque with city employees and other city officials. She’s no longer well-liked by many voters there, but the system in Chicago doesn’t allow recalls. To top things off, Lori is racist. She announced she would no longer take questions from white reporters.
Lightfoot also ignores Chicago’s tremendous debt and entitlements that must be paid. Will she massively cut spending or trim pensions? Of course not. Instead she will massively raise property taxes. Socialists such as Lightfoot will keep on spending other people’s money until it runs out. Perhaps she knows the corrupt Biden regime will end up bailing out her city. Taxpayers always end up getting punished for bad policy and corruption.
People may end up fleeing Illinois and its never-ending fleecing by incompetent politicians. If you like freedom and the ability to keep some of what you earn then Chicago is not your kind of town.
The founder of Guardian Angels who stood against crime in NYC, Curtis Sliwa, took 69% of the Republican votes which looks like the populism of 2016 all over again. Sliwa scored a big victory as the Republican nominee for mayor. What this is showing is that crime is out of control in NYC. Police are abandoning the job taking retirement ASAP and recruits are hard to find because the Democrats have painted the police as all racist enemies. You could not ask for a more toxic atmosphere and this election provides a hint of what we are going to see in 2022 – a real revolution at the polls.
Society cannot function without the rule of law. The Democrats think that they can win by dividing the country and fueling the flames of race and class. This is not the unity which is the very purpose of civilization where everyone benefits by coming together. They are actually unwinding the very reason to form civilization and in the process create the very reason for the break up of the United States post-2032.
If they try to steal this election, those in power better stay in a safe room and never come out. People like this who have gone so far against the basic standard of civilization have NEVER survived history. Even the birth of the Roman Republic in 509BC followed by the birth of Democracy in Athens in 508BC was a political CONTAGION that swept the Western world because corruption reached this level of insanity.
It has been about 2530 years (nearly 3 x 8.6) since the sweeping global revolution against tyranny where Rome overthrew its Tarquin king in 509BC and within less than one year Athens also rose up and overthrew their tyrants in 508BC. The political contagion was GLOBAL in western society. In China, there was the unification about 221BC and then there was the revolution of Confucius also during the 6th century BC. Confucius was appointed governor of Chung-tu in 501BC. Despite the fact that these regions did not know of each other at that point in time, there were sweeping political revolutions that engulfed the world as a whole.
In Denmark, which normally sided with Britain in the EU Parliament, is moving toward DEXIT. Many are beginning to see the EU as the greatest danger – not Russia. The EU has turned so far left and these lockdowns will tear the EU apart. Instead of promoting a common market and expanding trade, they have raised trade barriers and are firmly in the hand of Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum.
Everything is starting to unwind. Indeed, 2022 will be the Panic Cycle in politics and we will focus on this fascinating forecast coming out of Socrates for 2022 at the World Economic Conference (WEC), the shift in assets from Public to Private, the rising inflation, and the prospect for gold and cryptocurrencies that Socrates has laid out.
The fact that Curtis took 69% of the vote shows that there is a political change in the wind that will result in the greatest surprises beyond what we mere humans can put together. This is what Socrates was born to do. There are people who hate me and usually try to kill the messenger. But I and here only to reveal the forecasts of Socrates – not my personal wishes or desires.
NOTE: Schwab’s first real WEF took place in 1987. To reach 50 years, he is counting his seminars before 1987. Our first WEC was in 1985, and before that, we too had seminars around the world. To go back to when you first began, 1971, is by no means justified to pretend you have been doing world events for 50 years which is an exaggeration. That is why Nigel Farage called the WEC the alternative to Davos.
Putin did an interview where he revealed what he thought about Lenin’s entire Communist movement. He made it very clear that Lenin was NOT a statesman but just a Bolshevik Revolutionary. Putin also revealed his disagreement with the Great Reset, which is following the same mistake of Lenin. This interview has been removed by YouTube. The ONLY possible reason to remove it is that the West is following Marx, and Putin warned that was NOT the correct path for governments to follow. This action by YouTube implies that they are acting in the best interest of a totalitarian form of government and not what the United States enshrined in the Constitution.
They have removed people who talk about COVID or the vaccine. But this is far worse. This reveals that they are on board with a far more significant agenda — the destruction of all our freedom and a new world of totalitarianism. I would NEVER have thought their cancel agenda would go that far. But to remove the video of a head of state because he said Lenin was not a statesman is just unbelievable.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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