Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I hope you come to Dubai for a conference next year. After your Syrian forecast that the civil war would end only 13 years from the start in 2011, those of us here are still in shock and awe, as you say there in the States. I know your models have considered the cycles in Syria from Roman times. Is 2027 still the target in the Middle East?

BAF

ANSWER: Syria has a very long history. Antioch was the link to the Silk Road for all the dies and spices from Asia. As you can see, it is sandwiched between Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. Historically, it has also been known as the Levant and a strategic chess piece in the global war of geopolitics. The Seleucid Empire was a Greek state in West Asia during the Hellenistic period. It was founded in 312BC by the Macedonian general Seleucus I Nikator (312-281BC) when the Macedonian Empire founded by Alexander the Great was divided after his death among his generals.

Thus, this became known as the Seleucid dynasty until its annexation by the Roman Republic under Pompey in 63 BC, who conquered the region, transforming Syria into a Roman province. This has lent Syria the opportunity to provide a rich database extending centuries for computer analysis. First, you must acknowledge that laws are always silent during war and civil unrest. They are the decorations of civilization and only apply when there is civil discord – not war and upheaval.

The first Syrian to become a Roman Emperor was Elagabalus (218-222AD). This is always the same pattern of the conquered/slave eventually becoming king. Some pointed that out when Obama became President. This is a mere fact of history. The king is dead – long live the king. Another fact of history is when there is a civil uprising, the king may fall, but the victor quickly assumes the same policies as those he vanquished.

The English Civil War tore down the rule of law, and here you see Oliver Cromwell quickly issued coinage styled as the very king he had beheaded for daring to defend against him in the civil war. He put King Charles on trial, found him guilty for losing the civil war, and then beheaded him.

Civil Wars tend to last 4.3 years (American Civil War), 8.6 years (English Civil War), and even 13 years (Cambodian Civil War, 1967-1975). However, go beyond that 8.6-year period, and it will extend to 13 years.

Countless times when there have been civil wars, you find the head of state when captured, is often executed. This seems to be standard. When they are dead, they will routinely topple their statues as they did throughout Eastern Europe, toppling the statues of Lenin.

Civil Wars always invoke deep hatred, and when leaders are not executed, what you find is often assassinations of the victor. They assassinated Julius Caesar after he won the civil war. These are cyclical patterns that routinely take place. There was an attempted assassination of Zelensky, and he fired his head of security because it was Ukrainians – not Russians. There was a similar attempted assassination of Hitler.

Assad is wise to flee with his family to Russia, for they would have all been executed just as the Russian Revolution executed the entire family of the Czar. People who engaged in civil wars and/or revolutions always responded the same way, no matter what culture or nation was involved. The Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi also fled Iran in 1978 during that revolution. These things may appear to be a shock, but they are standard in the playbook of geopolitics.

I have previously warned that Turkey has the largest army in the Middle East, and Erdogan praised the Hamas attack because he dreams of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire and he sees himself as the leader. They are mortal enemies of Greece and that goes back to the fall of the Byzantine Empire. Turkey has funded these rebels, and that became possible only because Israel destroyed Hezbollah. On the one hand, you have the US cheering Al-Qaeda all because the Neocons have been trying for years to overthrow all three dictators they created in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. Now, they can get the pipeline from Qutar to cut off Russia’s energy sales to Europe. So this is all about Russia, Russia, Russia. Meanwhile, they are so fixated on conquering Russia that they have ignored the real threat in the Middle East of the resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.

I will update the prospects for war in the Middle East and the power vacuum that is unfolding that is hidden behind the headlines. Most people have no idea that it was the West that created all of these arab states. They were never independent nation-states.  With World War I, the West finally took down the Ottoman Empire. This was when the Sykes-Picot Agreement was established as a 1916 secret treaty between the United Kingdom and France, with the consent of Russia, Italy, and the United States. They were carving up the Ottoman Empire, which they mutually agreed to establish spheres of influence, thereby partitioning the Ottoman Empire. Syria was created, and the rule of Assad was in the economic interests of the West.

I have been asked why I do not write much about the Israeli war and offer a solution. There is NONE!!!! This is a religious war, and a ceasefire will only be temporary. Israel’s enemies is not limited to Iran. It also includes Turkey as we move forward in time.

We will publish an update on the geopolitical future of the Middle East for the Arab world and Israel. This will be released in January.