Greta’s Nightmare

Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Mar 3, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

One crisp winter morning in Sweden, a cute little girl named Greta woke up to a perfect world, one where there were no petroleum products ruining the earth. She tossed aside her cotton sheet and wool blanket and stepped out onto a dirt floor covered with willow bark that had been pulverized with rocks. “What’s this?” she asked.
“Pulverized willow bark,” replied her fairy godmother.
“What happened to the carpet?” she asked.
“The carpet was nylon, which is made from butadiene and hydrogen cyanide, both made from petroleum,” came the response.
Greta smiled, acknowledging that adjustments are necessary to save the planet, and moved to the sink to brush her teeth where instead of a toothbrush, she found a willow, mangled on one end to expose wood fibre bristles.
“Your old toothbrush?” noted her godmother, “Also nylon.”
“Where’s the water?” asked Greta.
“Down the road in the canal,” replied her godmother, ‘Just make sure you avoid water with cholera in it”
“Why’s there no running water?” Greta asked, becoming a little peevish.
“Well,” said her godmother, who happened to teach engineering at MIT, “Where do we begin?” There followed a long monologue about how sink valves need elastomer seats and how copper pipes contain copper, which has to be mined and how it’s impossible to make all-electric earth-moving equipment with no gear lubrication or tires and how ore has to be smelted to a make metal, and that’s tough to do with only electricity as a source of heat, and even if you use only electricity, the wires need insulation, which is petroleum-based, and though most of Sweden’s energy is produced in an environmentally friendly way because of hydro and nuclear, if you do a mass and energy balance around the whole system, you still need lots of petroleum products like lubricants and nylon and rubber for tires and asphalt for filling potholes and wax and iPhone plastic and elastic to hold your underwear up while operating a copper smelting furnace and . . .
“What’s for breakfast?” interjected Greta, whose head was hurting.
“Fresh, range-fed chicken eggs,” replied her godmother. “Raw.”
“How so, raw?” inquired Greta.
“Well, . . .” And once again, Greta was told about the need for petroleum products like transformer oil and scores of petroleum products essential for producing metals for frying pans and in the end was educated about how you can’t have a petroleum-free world and then cook eggs. Unless you rip your front fence up and start a fire and carefully cook your egg in an orange peel like you do in Boy Scouts. Not that you can find oranges in Sweden anymore.
“But I want poached eggs like my Aunt Tilda makes,” lamented Greta.
“Tilda died this morning,” the godmother explained. “Bacterial pneumonia.”
“What?!” interjected Greta. “No one dies of bacterial pneumonia! We have penicillin.”
“Not anymore,” explained godmother “The production of penicillin requires chemical extraction using isobutyl acetate, which, if you know your organic chemistry, is petroleum-based. Lots of people are dying, which is problematic because there’s not any easy way of disposing of the bodies since backhoes need hydraulic oil and crematoriums can’t really burn many bodies using as fuel Swedish fences and furniture, which are rapidly disappearing – being used on the black market for roasting eggs and staying warm.”
This represents only a fraction of Greta’s day, a day without microphones to exclaim into and a day without much food, and a day without carbon-fibre boats to sail in, but a day that will save the planet.
Tune in tomorrow when Greta needs a root canal and learns how Novocain is synthesized.

Spinning Turbines, or Not!

Tony Heller Feb 17, 2021

The wind turbines have shut down in Texas, and now green energy scamsters are spinning the truth to place the blame on somebody else. YouTube shut me down for two weeks and has made it clear to me that they intend to silence me. Please subscribe to​​ or

How to Think about Climate Change

William Happer speaks at Hillsdale College’s National Leadership Seminar on February 19, 2021, in Phoenix, Arizona.

How to Think About Climate Change | William Happer William Happer Professor of Physics Emeritus, Princeton University. has published many papers on the subject of the physics of green house gases in the earth’s atmosphere. In my option he is one of the world’s most knowledgeable scientists is the world on this subject.

Tony Heller Explains what Happened in Texas in February comes directly from Miss-Information on Climate Propagated by Bill Gates

Tony Heller99.3K subscribersSUBSCRIBEThe core problem is that we have a few very rich people controlling the flow of information, which is leading to very bad policy. YouTube shut me down for two weeks and has made it clear to me that they intend to silence me. Please subscribe to​​ or

Climate Change & the Dollar

Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Mar 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, at first I was not sure why you were focusing on the climate change issue. I now understand that climate is the main driving force behind this Great Reset which is out to undermine capitalism. Looking at the dollar through a global view I can see that cash is not trash.

Thank you for broadening my perspective.


ANSWER: Yes, perhaps my biggest mistake is I see things globally but do not always fully express them in a simple manner. Despite the increase in the money supply, the demand for dollars is escalating dramatically around the world. The Fed has been increasing the paper money supply for the demand is rising exponentially. Of course, those who keep preaching the collapse of the dollar because of the increase in the money supply,  fail to ever look beyond the shore of the United States. Even Canada has one of the highest debts among sovereign nations.

The problem is that other nations, including Canada, have the authority to simply cancel their currency. The US paper money is the only one still valid from 1861. Consequently, for hoarding purposes, the dollar is still the #1 choice for it is the safe place to keep the cash. Also, the USA is not part of the reporting practices. So foreigners can open accounts in the USA and they are not reported back to their own country. As a result, the demand for dollars is rising and it is simply the prettiest of the three ugly sisters as they say.

The Spectacular Eruption of Mt Etna – Sicily

Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Feb 26, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The lava flows from the Mt. Etna volcano, near Catania in Sicily, Italy, Feb. 23, 2021, are providing spectacular images. The explosion, which began just before midnight on Monday night, sent a plume of ash that rose for several kilometers from the top of Etna, as reported by The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etneo Observatory.

The earliest historical writer to mention an eruption of Mount Etna is Thucydides. In the course of his history of the Peloponnesian War, he records that there had been three eruptions of the volcano since the Greeks had settled in Sicily. He says the first occurred in the spring of 425BC when “a fire-flood issued from Aetna as on former occasions and destroyed the territory of Catania”; the preceding one took place fifty years before,
which is doubtless the one described by Pindar and Aeschylus and mentioned in the “Marmor Parium”15 as happening in 479BC. He makes no mention of the date of the third one. These are the earliest historical
records of the volcano, which therefore do not antedate the fifth century BC. After 400BC several eruptions are recorded in Graeco-Roman writers. Of these, the chief ones are the following: 396 BC, when a great lava stream reached the sea on the northeastern base of the volcano in which Catania was destroyed. Interestingly, perhaps just before Julius Caesar (100-44BC) crossed the Rubicon in 49BC, Vergil mentions as one of the signs of the gods’ displeasure at Caesar’s untimely death was an eruption of Mt Aetna.

Following the destruction of Catana by Mt Etna, the refugees fled to Inessa, a small suburb. They renamed that city Aitna and began to strike coinage in the name of their new city.

The Real Vortex & Astrology

Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Feb 25, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you ever use astrology?


ANSWER: No. Astrology I believe really dates back to at least the Babylonians. They conduct a research project catalog everything and attempted to correlate it to events. Clearly, astrology originated in Babylon far back in antiquity, with the Babylonians developing their own form of horoscopes around 2,400 years ago. Then around 2,100 years ago, it appears that astrology spread to the eastern Mediterranean, becoming popular in Egypt, which at the time was under the control of a dynasty of Greek kings. The oldest know astrologer’s board has been discovered which dated back prior to 2,000 years ago.

To me, it is still one-dimensional. We really live in a vortex as illustrated here. It is kind of looking at markets only in a single currency. The reality is far more complex. To me, you are measuring just to the planets, but we travel through the universe as well. The combinations are exponential.

The origin of what creates the cycles from the beginning of time may be like throwing a stone into a standing pool of water. At the very instant the stone hits the water, the amount of energy force is thereby set in motion. The waves are all predetermined.

I believe that based upon physics, the universe will expand only to a point whereby the energy of the movement will decline and then the internal gravity will cause it all to reverse direction and implode back to its original, and then it will start all over again. I believe the 8.6-year frequency which I have measured in economics to nature, was set in motion from the origin. There is nothing in this theory that is against divine creation. There is disagreement on that issue. Some argue the universe will keep expanding and perhaps run out of gas along the way. Others, like me, believe it is more like throwing a ball in the air. The resistance will eventually slow the upward movement and gravity will seize control and bring it back down to earth. I believe that is the more likely course of action simply because that is how everything else functions right down to a pendulum and cyclical activity.

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

Excellent Physics Written by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer Published on June 8, 2020

The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of Earth’s ve most important, greenhouse gases, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4 control the cloud-free, thermal radiative flux from the Earth to outer space. Over 1/3 million lines having strengths as low as 10􀀀27 cm of the HITRAN database were used to evaluate the dependence of the forcing on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order 10􀀀22 W for H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4. For current atmospheric concentrations, the per-molecule forcings of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forcings of the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, are also suppressed, but much less so. For current concentrations, the per-molecule forcings are two to three orders of magnitude greater for O3, N2O and CH4, than those of H2O or CO2. Doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4 increases the forcings by a few per cent. These forcing results are close to previously published values even though the calculations did not utilize either a CO2 or H2O continuum. The change in surface temperature due to CO2 doubling is estimated taking into account radiative-convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as water feedback for the cases of xed absolute and relative humidities as well as the eect of using a pseudoadiabatic lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. Satellite spectral measurements at various latitudes are in excellent quantitative agreement with modelled intensities.

A sample from Page 6 in the paper

A sample from page 35 in the Paper

Click on the Download box below to get the full 37 page paper it is worth reading if you are a serious researcher on climate physics.

A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, January 2021 Data

Carbon Dioxide CO2 is not making “ANY” dangerous changes to the global temperature!

From the attached report on climate change for January 2021 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by 32.0% from 1958 to January of 2021. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .40%; while CO2 has increased by 32.0% which is 80 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem?

The numbers tell us no there isn’t!

The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be a bit over 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

Climate Change, the Story

OK here is the deal Looking back 4 or 5 thousand years there appears to be a cycle of ups and downs ranging around 900 to 1,100 years with a swing in temperatures of around 1.3 to 1.4 degrees C. Then there is a shorter cycle of 60 to 70 years with a swing of temperature of .3 to .4 degrees C. Lastly there is warming from CO2 which when modeled properly using a logistics curve (sensitivity value of around .7 to .9 C per doubling of CO2 will give an increase in temperature of between 1.1 and 1.2 degrees C from a base of 270 ppm We are now at 415 ppm so we have already realized about a 76.9% of that amount so CO2 can only add .18 additional degrees C from CO2 even at CO2 levels well over 1000 ppm.

The primary determinant of global temperature is the “observed” ~1,000 year cycle which started moving up in 1650 and which will peak around 2150 +/- at around 16.0 to 16.5 degrees C; at that point no matter what level CO2 reaches we will see a drop of global temperatures for the next 500 years. I can speculate why this seems to be true but, at this point, there is no science to prove this is true. However the geological temperatures are what they are even if we don’t know why.

When these three items are properly aliened, based on historic data going back 2,000 years, a model that matches NASA-GISS month values using a running 12 month average very closely can be  constructed and it shows there will be a slight pause that will last until 2035 when a different alignment of the cycles will again cause temperature to go up.  The model uses 1650 AD as the base year with a world temperature estimated to be around 13.5 degrees C back then. The model works because it correctly uses the three observed movements in global temperature. Unfortunately since these movements greatly exceed human life times they can be ignored by politicians that use the hysteria that they generate to get laws that give them power over the people.

Is the Earth getting warmer or colder?

The Politicians, the IPCC, along with NASA and NOAA like to tell us that the earth is getting warmer and warmer and will soon be ice free. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC, tells us its so bad that we only have 8 years to live. If this is true then it seems to me that this is actually a very easy thing to prove or disprove. The reason I say this is because of the proven concept of conservation of energy, in this case angular momentum. This is the same principle that is shown in ice skating when a skater starts a spin with their arms out and then they bring them in and up over their head.  The result is that their spin increases directly to how tight they can make their body; and we have all seen this many times over the years so there is no possible debate on this concept. 

So how does this relate to the earth getting warmer? Well it’s actually very simple the earth is spinning at one revolution every 24 hours, once a day, and we have the ability, today, to measure this 24 hours very, very accurately. Therefore if the poles are getting warmer, as we are being told, the ice there would be melting and contributing to the sea levels rising. According to the believers views this will flood low lying coastal cities and cause much disruption to humans. They give us a plurality of reports on how much the sea levels have risen since we started to use lots of fossil based fuels mostly in the past 100 years.

Well if this is true that the ice at the poles, on the land only, is in fact melting then the resulting water will enter the planets oceans and because of the spinning earth that a portion of that water will quickly migrate to the equator. As it does so and because of the conservation of angular momentum the planets rotation will slow down; and this will be in direct relationship to the amount of ice above the Arctic and Antarctic circles on land that is there or not there. More ice at the poles will speed up the spin and less ice at the poles will slow down the spin there can be no debate about this principle the only issue would be do we have the technology to measure this.

If we do, and I think we do, then there is a very simple way to determine whether the planet is warming or not — we just measure this spin