It is worth noting the date, time and general information released within an innocuous tweet today from President Donald Trump:

The geopolitical confrontation between the U.S. and China is the big picture.  There is a tremendous amount of noise surrounding other media-advanced current events; but the real issue of generational consequence is between President Trump and Chairman Xi.

In advance of the midterm election Beijing pulled-back as part of their strategy to wait out the results from the U.S. midterm election.  The ‘Red Dragon‘ play was to reengage after Trump after the election hoping for a weakened enemy.

Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and the action continues.

The red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately.  The Art of War.

President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.

It is specifically because he understands that Panda is a mask that President Trump messages warmth toward the Chinese people, and pours vociferous praise upon Chairman Xi Jinping, while simultaneously confronting the geopolitical doctrine of the Xi regime.

In essence Trump is mirroring the behavior of China while confronting their economic duplicity.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

♦Squeeze #1. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue. Venezuela needs more money. China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding.  China and Russia now need to loan more, directly.

However, China cannot engage in economic commerce with Venezuela or they risk losing access to the U.S. banking system.  Therefore all current Chinese aid to Maduro comes in the form of IOUs.  These ongoing loans are likely impossible to be repaid.

♦Squeeze #2. China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal. Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has influenced global energy prices.  Additionally, President Trump is demanding NATO countries, specifically Germany, stop supporting financial dependence on Russia.

Meanwhile, and directly connected, Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria. Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent and President Trump is now putting pressure on Iran vis-a-vis new sanctions and new demands on allies.

♦Squeeze #3. In 2017 Trump and Secretary Tillerson, now Secretary Pompeo, put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China. The U.S. removed $900 million in financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void.  [NOTE: Last month the World Bank began discussions about a financial bailout for Pakistan.]  Again, more one-way bleed for China.

♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India. President Trump has embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals. The key play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India. That’s a big play.  It would have massive ramifications.

♦Squeeze #5. President Trump launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property. This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.

In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices.  [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.  However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up. The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress.  The 301 review of China was pulled back off the shelf, and President Trump assembles his trade-war strategy.  The 301 tariffs/sanctions are currently being worked out with U.S.T.R Robert Lighthizer.

♦Squeeze #6. President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer dissolved NAFTA. One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. was to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

(USMCA – Link) – [Full Details]

♦Squeeze #7. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. concludes with NAFTA. [Current discussions with Japan are ongoing]

♦Squeeze #8. President Trump positioned the U.S. relationship with the E.U. as a massive potential loss for Europe (via Steel, Aluminum, and Auto tariffs) if they did not: (A) shift their trade relationship toward greater reciprocity; and (B) reconsider the size of their trade relationship with China.  After initially trying to push-back, Europe acquiesced.

♦Squeeze #9. President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. Last year the KORUS (South Korea and U.S.) trade deal was renegotiated, and announced in March. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

♦Squeeze #10. President Trump has formed an economic and national security alliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan. It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired his last missile over the Northern part of Japan. Quite simply, Beijing told him to.  However…

♦Squeeze #11. President Trump cut-off the duplicitous Beijing influence over North Korea by engaging directly with Kim Jong-un.  The open exchange and ongoing dialogue has removed much of the ability of Beijing to leverage the DPRK nuclear threat for their own economic benefit.  This dialogue was as much, if not more, about dismantling the Beijing geopolitical influence as it was about denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.  However, no-one caught on to that part of the strategy.

Earlier today House Judiciary Committee member Mark Meadows (hopefully the next chairman) tweeted out a troubling concern regarding the FBI and George Papadopoulos. Additionally, Meadows sent the Presiding FISC Judge Rosemary Collyer a letter of inquiry and notification from the committee. [More on that in another post]

Meadows notes there is a likelihood the FBI have tapes of Papadopoulos as part of their counterintelligence scheme to target the Trump campaign.  The importance of this comes from within the timeline of events in July 2017, when President Trump was in office – and AFTER the Robert Mueller special counsel was in place.  ie. “The insurance policy.”

In response to the FBI issues; and giving a peek at the likely closed-door testimony; George Papadopoulos responded via twitter drawing attention to the background of a series of events CTH previously outlined.  It would appear Mr. Papadopoulos is now aware the FBI was conducting a sting operation, and setting him up using an FBI/CIA asset.

On page #9 of the Papadopoulos Sentencing Memo from Special Counsel Robert Mueller there’s an interesting paragraph about a $10,000 payment made to George Papadopoulos.

(pdf link)

The Daily Caller, via Chuck Ross, dug into that payment and outlined the specifics :

[…] The Daily Caller News Foundation has learned that a man named Charles Tawil gave Papadopoulos $10,000 during a meeting in an Israeli hotel room in July 2017.

Sources familiar with the matter told TheDCNF Tawil flew to the Greek island of Mykonos to meet Papadopoulos and his now-wife, Simona Mangiante Papadopoulos. Tawil invited the pair to Israel, but Mangiante Papadopoulos stayed behind.

Papadopoulos gave the money to an attorney in Greece before traveling back to the U.S., a source told TheDCNF on the condition of anonymity. Papadopoulos was arrested at Dulles International Airport on a return trip from overseas on July 27, 2017.  (read more)

CTH dug a little deeper – Mr. Charles Tawil, the guy who reached out to Papadopoulos in Greece; and who ultimately gave Papadopoulos $10,000 in cash; was a previous intelligence asset of the CIA and FBI.

SEE WIKILEAKS Cables (circa 2006): Paragraph #8, note:

“These undisclosed sources told Zuma that American citizens (not connected with the U.S. Government) were involved. This in part, coincides with another Embassy contact, Charles Tawil (protect), who told our Economic Counselor on November 29 that Zuma had received information from the mother of the King of Swaziland about CIA attempts to kill Zuma using poisoned clothes from the FBI” (link)

Who was the FBI Director in 2006?  Why, Robert Mueller of course.

The $10,000 payment to Papadopoulos was almost guaranteed to be a sting operation; a set-up.

Federal agents were waiting for Papadopoulos at the airport upon his arrival and re-entry into the U.S.  If Mr. Papadopoulos had carried that $10k into the U.S. without declaring a U.S. treasury filing, the FBI/DOJ would have nailed him on a treasury violation.

Bringing $10,000 (or more) cash into the U.S., without reporting, is major trouble; add into that aspect the likelihood the set-up included use of an intelligence asset, and the issue can be compounded into laundering money.  That’s just the type of leverage Robert Mueller was looking for:

[…] Stanley said Papadopoulos arrived on a Lufthansa flight from Munich that touched down at about 7 p.m. on July 27, and the FBI intercepted him as soon as he got off the plane.

“He was arrested before he got to Customs and he was then held at the airport before being brought to a law enforcement office,” Stanley recalled. (link)

The Mueller directed federal agents were waiting for him; but P-dop left the cash in Greece.  I suspect Papadopoulos likely sensed something was askew.  The absence of the cash foiled the FBI’s initial plan and that’s likely why they kept him for questioning.

Jail records obtained by POLITICO show that Papadopoulos was booked at the city detention center in Alexandria, Virginia, at 1:45 a.m. the next day.  (link)

It was a classic set-up; a classic entrapment sting operation.

Back to the Daily Caller:

[…] Papadopoulos and Tawil met through an Israeli political strategist named David Ha’ivri.

Ha’ivri told TheDCNF said that he introduced the pair “at my own initiative” to facilitate a business deal involving an oil and gas project in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas.

Ha’ivri said that Tawil “is a part time consultant for companies that operate in Africa and Middle East.” He believed when he introduced Tawil to Papadopoulos that the former Trump aide had “good connections” in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.

[…] Mysterious encounters have become a theme for Papadopoulos, a 30-year-old energy consultant who joined the Trump campaign in early March 2016 after a stint on the Ben Carson campaign.

Papadopoulos, who lives in Chicago, has met with several key players in the Russia investigation.

In an interview in June with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Mangiante Papadopoulos described several “shady characters,” who she said approached her husband during and after the 2016 presidential campaign.

Without naming Tawil, she mentioned “someone we met in Mykonos, an Israeli person who flew to Mykonos to discuss business.”  (read more)

Summary:  George Papadopoulos and his wife Simone Mangiante approached in Greece by a known CIA/FBI operative, Charles Tawil.  Mr. Tawil enlists George as a business consultant, under the auspices of energy development interests, and hands him $10,000 in cash to take back to the U.S.  Upon arrival at the Dulles airport Robert Mueller had FBI agents waiting.  Papadopoulos was stopped and searched; however, he never had the cash because he smartly left it in Greece with his lawyer. Further:

[W]hen he was arrested at Dulles Airport on July 27 after coming off a flight from Munich, prosecutors had no warrant for him and no indictment or criminal complaint. The complaint would be filed the following morning and approved by Howell in Washington.

And when prosecutors filed the complaint the next day they got a spoken order from Howell to seal it, but followed up with a written request that they could take to the magistrate in Alexandria, where they showed up almost an hour later than she expected.

All of it suggests something of a scramble, rather than a carefully prepared plan to take Papadopoulos into custody. (more)

The FBI who met Papadopoulos at the airport had no warrant, no indictment and no criminal complaint…. because they believed George would be carrying the evidence they would need to structure their legal leverage.

The FBI behavior became a scramble, and the DOJ needed their hastily constructed indictment to be sealed, because their initial leverage fell through.  The $10,000 was a set up.

It is important again to note here that this activity took place in July 2017.  Again, we note that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein WOULD HAVE TO HAVE BEEN notified of the airport operation and part of the decision-making for the DOJ rushed indictment.

President Trump heads to southwest Florida tonight for a massive MAGA rally at Hertz arena in Fort Myers.  President Trump is strongly supporting Governor Rick Scott’s Senate bid, as well as Congressman Ron DeSantis’ campaign for to replace Scott as Governor.

President Trump campaigned in Fort Myers in September 2016, and returned to the area with the first-lady following Hurricane Irma.  Tonight’s rally is likely to be a very big event for attendance. Anticipated start time is 7:00pm EST with pre-rally speakers earlier.

UPDATE: Video Added

RSBN Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link

Pictures from previous Trump MAGA rally in Fort Myers, September 2016

As President Trump departs the White House for a MAGA rally in Fort Myers, Florida, the president pauses to answer a variety of questions from the media.

In the past several election cycles CTH has posted ‘Ground Report- Open Discussion’ threads to review perspectives of ground reports from your state, city and neighborhood. ‘Ground Reports’ are a valuable resource to gauge the non-quantifiable elements around elections; they are often quite insightful.

Many states are currently in the process of early voting. If you have a ground report you would like to share, please use the comment section below to provide your perspective.

Additionally, there are often obscure events that can help identify voting trends and possibilities; so don’t limit your review to traditional perspectives. Sentiments and senses are also very useful. What do you sense? What is going on in/around your town and location? Good or bad; positive or negative; what do you see happening?

First the wonky stuff.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CBCCI) has jumped again for October and now measures the highest current sentiment among consumers since 2000.   The CCI now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September.   Additionally, the future outlook of consumers, known as the “Expectations Index” (consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions) increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month.  More DATA winnamins.

What does that mean?  Well, it means middle-America feels GREAT about now, next week, next month, and well into next year.  Additionally, now that the winnamins are starting to catch up to them, the pontificating wonkified actuaries will begin to project a splendidly “strong” holiday season.  Duh!  They’re always playing catch-up. LOL.

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The key to understanding MAGAnomics is to focus on the middle-class.  If the middle-class is thriving and doing well, all of the economic indicators will tell the same story.  MAGAnomic benefactors (ordinary working people outside the investment class) are scantly impacted by the Stock Market.

When the middle-class is thriving, everything inside the U.S. economy improves.

This is the key and cannot be repeated enough.

Trump’s MAGAnomic policy focuses on Main Street.  The preceeding 30+ years of economic policy focused on Wall Street.

That’s the essential difference.

The benefactors of MAGAnomics are those working week-to-week, month-to-month, to take care of their family.  The middle-class; not the uni-focused investment class.

When the middle-class is optimistic, confident and positive, you can be certain of an exceptional holiday season.  This is not challenging to understand.

As we shared when the third-quarter GDP results were announced a few days ago; everything is pointing to a great fourth quarter and holiday retail season.

Overall the 3.5% GDP growth is exceptionally strong.  To see the data bolstering a positive future forecast I would draw attention to Table 2 (lines 43 through 49) and the analysis for net impact over Exports/Imports.  The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth; that’s a result of a large increase in imported durable goods [likely anticipatory holiday inventory buildup].

As you can imagine from your own shopping experiences, durable goods inventories generally climb in the third quarter as companies increase inventory in preparation for holiday sales in quarter four.  The growth in the buildup of this inventory is significantly higher than historic trend; this means companies are forecasting strong consumer demand for goods in Q4, the holiday season.

Further support for a booming Q4 purchase prediction can be found in the current 4% growth of consumer spending.  With wages growing (3.8% avg), and with an incredibly strong jobs market, people are making large purchases with confidence.  Additionally, price data in the current GDP report shows inflation at a 1.6 percent annualized pace.

Add it all up and you can see the reason for companies to boost inventory ahead of a very strong holiday season.  The middle class drives the MAGAnomic economy.  Workers are getting paid more and being taxed less; our paychecks are bigger.

Simultaneously inflation is low (prices not increasing), so the net is more disposable income to make purchases, combined with confidence in wages/jobs allowing people to spend more.

President Trump, First-lady Melania Trump, Jared and Ivanka Kushner along with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin visit the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to pay their respects and condolences to the victims of a mass shooting on Saturday.

President Trump laid a stone of remembrance and First Lady Melania laid a white rose upon each of eleven Star of David markers outside the Synagogue prior to going inside to visit survivors and family members.

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After leaving the Synagogue the President and first lady traveled to the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center to meet with additional victims of Saturday’s shooting.  Their visit to the hospital included meeting with medical staff and wounded law enforcement officers: Officer Tim Matson (remains in intensive care); Officer Daniel Mead (discharged); Officer Anthony Burke (discharged); and Officer Tyler Paschel  (wounded).