Replacing Gary Cohn, today is day one for Larry Kudlow to hit the airwaves as President Trump’s new Chairman of the National Economic Council.  This will be an interesting dynamic to watch.  In essence, Kudlow’s job – whether he admits it or not, is to remove the clenched grip of U.S. Chamber of Commerce President, Tom Donohue, from the republican trade and business position.

With multinational trade confrontations now taking center stage, Kudlow is going to have to slowly shift the GOPe political minds into a modern Trump-era where Main Street U.S.A. is the priority.  Wall Street needs to shift to domestic investment if they desire to remain beneficiaries.

President Trump is immovable on his trade and economic agenda. Period; end of story. Ask Gary Cohn or any other member of the disassembled manufacturing council advisory board who quit last year because POTUS Trump just wouldn’t heed their duplicitous and high-minded advice. Do you remember candidate Trump mentioning the endless talking to nowhere that he has not time for? Yeah, that.

President Trump has a 30-year-developed plan and strategy for the U.S. to recapture economic power. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and key trade strategist Peter Navarro are carrying out that plan.

Anyone thinking they would somehow disrupt three decades of trade planning by POTUS Trump is too funny to give typeset space.

POTUS would cut off his own hand before he would change direction on his economic strategy.

Remember: “America First”.   Titan-minded Trump is the most committed economic influence agent in the history of American politics.

The National Economic Council (NEC) is an entity demanded by the formal traditions of the Office of the President. The council assembles, meets, discusses, hold conferences, invite guests etc. However, for POTUS Trump it’s an exercise in formality run mostly by professionals who benefit from the indulgences of membership.

The NEC has no more influence on Trump’s economic plan than any chosen Country Club has influence over his skills on the golf course.  But it looks good.  And that’s it.

Chairman Larry Kudlow will be working overtime amid the financial-class cocktail party circuit to share an entirely different economic when it comes to trade and investment.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on CNBC earlier today to talk specifically about U.S-China trade resets, confrontation and negotiations.  Secretary Ross cuts right through the chaff and countermeasures and gets right to the primary issues.

When questioned about the myriad of downstream issues, Secretary Ross stays focused on the big picture.  GREAT INTERVIEW (there are multiple segments where it’s almost impossible not to laugh during Wilburine’s gnat-swatting):

You might remember in July of 2017 when President Trump attended the “Three Seas Initiative” in Warsaw Poland. The bigger goals and objectives were/are building relationships with Baltic nations aligned with the same freedom outlook. President Trump committed his administration to free, fair and equitable trade with the Baltic partners.

2017 – “Let me be clear about one crucial point. The United States will never use energy to coerce your nations, and we cannot allow others to do so,” President Trump said at a press conference flanked by European leaders. “You don’t want to have a monopoly or a monopolistic situation.”  (NBC article link)

Today President Trump is hosting many of the same leaders at the White House. There will be a press conference at approximately 1:30pm EST.

UPDATE: Video Added

WH Livestream Link – ABC Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link

With the migrant march from South America, mostly Hondurans, gaining more media attention, it is also important to revisit last year’s threats -from Mexican officials- which preceded their current year complicity.

♦  In August of 2017 President Trump and Commerce Secretary Ross were discussing their trade efforts within NAFTA and renegotiation with Mexico/Canada on a trilateral basis.  However, the U.S. administration said if it doesn’t work, they’d scrap the 3-way NAFTA deal and go one-on-one with individual bilateral agreements.  In response, Mexican Economic Minister Ildefonso Guajardo threatened to flood the U.S. with South American illegal aliens, criminals and gang members as leverage:

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico could pull back on cooperation in migration and security matters if the United States walks away from talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Mexican economy minister said in a newspaper report published on Thursday.

“If they do not treat [us] well commercially, they should not expect us to treat them well by containing the migration that comes from other regions of the world and crosses Mexico,” Guajardo said. “Or they should not expect to be treated well in collaboration with security issues in the region.” (LINK)

However, Mexican Minister Ildefonso Guarjardo’s threat was mild compared to a threat in January 2017, when another Mexican official promised to flood the U.S. with South American drugs and gang violence:

♦ In a stunning segment on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN broadcast January 29th, 2017, Mexico’s former foreign minister, Jorge Castaneda, states the Mexican government was willing to counter U.S. President Donald Trump policy by unleashing drug cartels upon the U.S. border.

Watch, and more importantly LISTEN, to his words at 02:10 below (Prompted):

This was the most politically explosive admission by the Mexican government in the past decade.  Even Fareed Zakaria realized what was being threatened and quickly attempted to redirect the conversation.

Mr. Castaneda was openly admitting a willingness to promote drug trafficking.  Additionally, Jorge Castaneda is so proud of the threat, he posted a video of the discussion on his own YouTube page.

CTH takes a little flak for pointing out the obvious; that’s ok, it doesn’t change the reality: When you confront the manipulated multinational trade system – the multinational Wall Street entities who have historically benefited from that system will lose.

It is impossible for Wall Street corporations invested overseas not to lose some financial position. This is reality, and this is also necessary.  Meanwhile U.S-centered  corporations will gain valuation in direct proportion to the amount of investment they hold inside the U.S…

White House Trade Director Peter Navarro discusses the ongoing trade initiatives, China, Wall Street and NAFTA.  President Trump has indicated a strong preference for U.S.T.R. Lighthizer to make a determination about NAFTA as soon as possible. WATCH:

In retaliation for $50 billion in U.S. trade tariffs against Chinese imports, China laughably hits back with $3 their own billion tariffs against the U.S.  According to most reporting Beijing has selected U.S. pork and scrap aluminum as targets for a 25% tariff, along with wine and fruit tariffs around 15%.

It should be emphasized the approach by China is rather ridiculous considering the Chinese government purchased the largest U.S. pork manufacturer Smithfield in 2013 for $5 billion; at the time the purchase price was 30% more than the company was worth.  Smithfield, now a Chinese company, represents 25% of all U.S. pork products.

Do you really think China is going to not import it’s own pork products… or subject them to a domestic tax?  Think about it.  It’s ridiculous.  China knows they have ZERO leverage in a trade-dispute with the U.S., they cannot afford to lose access to the U.S. market.

The example of Smithfield foods is exactly what we have outlined in how China cannot sustain itself and needs to control the assets of foreign countries.  Hence, their one-road/one-belt program for securing products and raw materials.  China is a dependent economy, they need to exploit global trade to survive.  China cannot feed itself. This is the inherent flaw within their short-sighted authoritarian government-controlled economic model.

Again, for emphasis, the Chinese government underwrote the purchase of Smithfield foods in 2013.  They paid 30% more than the company was worth because they were securing access to food just like they would any other raw material (uranium, minerals, etc).  China also purchases U.S. politicians to retain their ability in this regard.

Now look at the cartoon from the unofficial Chinese state-run media today:

Remember THIS is the position of the Chinese Government:

[…]  China’s latest countermeasures target fruit, pork and other US goods totaling some $3 billion, the equivalent of China’s losses caused by US tariffs. The list indicates China will never compromise and will always retaliate against unreasonable tariffs.

For every single move against Chinese interests, the US can expect retaliation. It is time for Washington to bid farewell to the delusional, make-believe world whereby it imagines China an unresponsive, over-tolerant nation.

China does not want a trade war, but it will not retreat should one emerge. Monday’s announcement is hardly a subtle hint. China will show its strength through action.

Recent White House statements have revealed a tough stance on Sino-US trade disparities while some have even shown a level of optimism at resolving trade conflicts through negotiation. But it is not hard to realize that such self-contradictory behavior reveals that the US knows its actions are unjustifiable. China’s attitude toward a trade conflict has been consistent and Beijing will carefully handle all challenges from the US.

There are always a few Western politicians who think China might step back and concede. But they are wrong. The Chinese government only cares about what is in the best interest of its people rather than elections.

Washington must be reasonable dealing with China. Threats will fail as China is not afraid of the US, plus the Chinese have zero tolerance for political weakness.  (read more)

Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially within approved and released statements by officials representing the government.

There is no doubt in my mind that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. President Trump takes strategic messaging toward the people of china very importantly. President Trump has, very publicly, complimented the friendship he feels toward President Xi Jinping; and praises Chairman Xi for his character, strength and purposeful leadership.

To build upon that projected and strategic message – President Trump seeded the background by appointing Ambassador Terry Branstad, a 30-year personal friend of President Xi Jinping.

To enhance and amplify the message – and broadcast cultural respect – U.S. President Trump used Mar-a-Lago as the venue for their visit, not the White House. And President Trump’s beautiful granddaughter, Arabella, sweetly serenaded the Chinese First Family twice in Mandarin Chinese song showing the utmost respect for the guests and later for the hosts.

Why the constant warm messaging?

What is the purpose?

What does all this have to do with a trade confrontation?

Historic Chinese geopolitical policy, vis-a-vis their totalitarian control over political sentiment (action) and diplomacy through silence, is evident in the strategic use of the space between carefully chosen words, not just the words themselves.

Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and the action continues. The red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. The Art of War.

President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.

It is specifically because he understands that Panda is a mask that President Trump messages warmth toward the Chinese people, and pours vociferous praise upon Xi Jinping, while simultaneously confronting the geopolitical doctrine of the Xi regime.

In essence Trump is mirroring the behavior of China while confronting their economic duplicity.

China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other.

China accepts and believes opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Flowing between these polar states is a natural dynamic to be used -with serious contemplation- in advancing objectives as needed.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.

Therefore, when you see China publicly use strong language – it indicates a level of internal disposition beyond the defined western angst. Big Panda becomes Red Dragon; there is no mid-status or evolutionary phase. Every American associated with investment, economics and China would be well advised to put their business affairs in order accordingly.

President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed. President Trump has waiting three decades for this moment. This President and his team are entirely prepared for this.

We are finally confronting the geopolitical Red Dragon, China!

The Olive branch and arrows denote the power of peace and war. The symbol in any figure’s right hand has more significance than one in its left hand. Also important is the direction faced by the symbols central figure. The emphasis on the eagles stare signifies the preferred disposition. An eagle holding an arrow also symbolizes the war for freedom, and its use is commonly referred to the liberation fight of righteous people from abusive influence. The eagle on the original seal created for the Office of the President showed the gaze upon the arrows.

The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable

An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.

Moral: We often give our enemies the means for our own destruction.

RELATED:

Leverage… We have it, China doesn’t.

China is no longer hiding their alignment with their proxy province of North Korea.  Meanwhile President Trump has cultivated a very close relationship with Shinzo Abe of Japan, and to a lesser extent Prime Minister Modi of India.

Two teams preparing for the economic conflict:

China/North-Korea/Russia and Pakistan.

-VS-

U.S./South-Korea/Japan and India.

.

That’s the big picture.  The rest is chaff and countermeasures.

Earlier today President Trump tweeted concern about the politicization of border security and the unwillingness of Mexico to confront their side of the equation.  [the three tweets from POTUS Trump follow the video snippet]

Before attending Easter Mass today, President Donald Trump briefly paused and responded to a question about his calling out Mexico for not helping the U.S. secure the border. WATCH:

It is against Mexico’s interests to stop the outflow of illegal aliens into the United States.  Much of the Mexican economy is dependent on the exfiltration of U.S. wealth through Mexican nationals sending money back to Mexico from the U.S.

The amount of money services (Western Union) used by Mexican Nationals to transfer dollars to their friends and family in Mexico exceeds the entire energy sector of the Mexican economy.  Hopefully President Trump will follow through on plans to exit NAFTA.

Today President Trump is traveling to Richfield, Ohio, to visit a union technical training facility for welding and heavy equipment. While there the President will deliver a speech about rebuilding infrastructure in America.  Anticipated start time 2:00pm EST.

UPDATE: Video Added

WH Livestream Link – RSBN Livestream Link – CNBC Livestream Link

The final quantification of the Bureau of Economic Analysis fourth quarter GDP growth rate was released today, reflecting an anticipated increase from the prior two estimations. The last revised estimation of GDP growth (February) was +2.5%, the final revised estimate is +2.9% growth.

A massive increase in consumer spending (+4%) around the October through December 31st time-frame (Q4) was offset by those dollars purchasing a large portion of imported products.  The GDP growth deduction from import purchases was 1.99%. [See table #2, line 50 pdf here]

In short, American consumers spent significantly more than usual in the holiday season; however, many of those purchases were foreign goods.

From the BEA Report – Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains thesame; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment were revised up. (more)

We anticipated this adjusted increase back when the first BEA result was posted, for two reasons: #1) The original estimations were contingent upon almost no domestic inventory remaining at the end of Q4 (highly unlikely); #2) The import deduction was the largest deduction in the past decade (possible, but again too early to quantify). The resulting adjustments announced today reflected exactly these two items.

(Via CNBC) While robust consumer spending curbed the accumulation of inventories, the slowdown in inventory investment was not as steep as previously reported.

Inventory investment rose at a rate of $15.6 billion in the fourth quarter instead of the previously reported $8.0 billion pace. (link)

Look closely at the last part from CNBC above.  The BEA underestimated inventory investment by 50%?  Think about that….  you don’t miss figures by that amount unintentionally.  It’s called ‘sandbagging’.  I digress.

The bottom line – in Q4 we exported more than the past 4 years (+.83%), but we imported more than any time in the past ten years (-1.99%). The net impact was a deduction from GDP growth by -1.16%.

[*note* a reasonable correction in the trade imbalance of 25% (through smart trade deals) means the Q4 GDP could have been actually 3.5% instead of 2.9%]

The cumulative net result was an end of year (measured from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017), real GDP increase of 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent during 2016.

MAGAnomics works.  We just need to support Trump and keep on keeping-on.

Now think about this….

President Trump appointed Gary Cohn to keep Wall Street invested; and throughout 2017 the Trump administration kept their trade cards close to the chest – it worked.  The Stock Market bought into the ploy that POTUS Trump would not disrupt the dynamics of Wall Street’s multinational global trade ideology.

However, they were not paying attention to the granular details under the radar, as evidenced by the action of Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.  Throughout 2017 there was a ton of pre-positioning of assets taking place.

As soon as Team Trump gained massive increases in Wall Street (stock market) evaluations, we now enter year two where President Trump dispatches Gary Cohn and enlists Peter Navarro to carry out the MAGAnomic America-First agenda which includes rapid-fire renegotiated trade deals.

Brilliant strategery.

Bigly.

…in addition to MAGAnomic winning, you might just stop a nuclear war with North Korea.

Stay small, think BIGLY.

MAGAstrong