European Commission Trying to Seize Control of Euro

I reported previously that the European Commission is seeking to take the clearing of the Euro derivative transactions from London and move them to Paris. The European Central Bank (ECB) is warning that it must secure strong access rights for the supervision of the cross-border settlement of financial transactions after the departure of Great Britain from the EU. About 90%+ of all euro derivatives transactions are settled via clearing houses in London such as LCH.Clearnet. In the middle of a crisis, the ECB would have no power to shut the market to protect the euro from the free market forces. Of course, what they fail to grasp here is trying to seize the euro clearing and move it by decree to Paris will only undermine the euro even more. What will they do next? Forbid the euro to trade in New York, Chicago, or Asia? Do that and the euro will become a massive short.

The ECB actually came clean and the papers filed at the Commission seems to suggest that the central bank indeed expects the possibility of a very major and serious financial crises ahead. That reflects what I have been warning about that they are trapped. Once Draghi stops buying government debt, we may see a meltdown in the euro altogether. The ECB wrote: “It is to be expected that significant developments on both the global and the European level will increase the risks posed by clearing systems.”

Keep in mind that the European Commission has already outlawed naked short-selling of the sovereign debt and European shares. The ECB is now focusing on clearing houses of financial products to control any emergency they see against the euro.  Mario Draghi has been ringing the warning bell that they would have at best minor oversight of the UK-based clearing houses after a BREXIT. He believes they can simply muscle the markets to prevent a collapse.

The ECB estimates that repo transactions denominated in euro in the daily volume of €101 billion and open positions in interest rate swaps in euro reach daily trading volume of €33 trillion are cleared through clearing houses in Great Britain. Draghi has proposed that Article 22 of the ESCB Statute be amended in such a way that, even after the BREXIT, they still have sufficient control rights over euro clearing. Draghi wants it both ways. He wants the euro to be a world class currency, but then wants absolute control to shut down any undesirable counter trends.

Democrats Can’t Beat Trump With All Actors & Media on Their Side

Despite having Hollywood, Google, Mainstream Media, and countless violent activists, the Democrats still can’t beat Trump. They just do not comprehend what is going on. There have been four congressional special elections this year where Democrats and Republicans have gone head-to-head. The Democrats have lost every one. Even the Georgia election, which was not a Special election, Ms Handel finished first scoring a win. California does not count for it is just too far to the left to matter anymore.

Nevertheless even Georgia’s election result was devastating to Democrats nationwide, for one would think with all the yelling, protests, and media coverage that is anti-Trump who has low approval ratings, according to the media, the Democrats should be able to win something if Trump is really regarded as being toxic.

When we look at the trend of the Democrats, they have been losing ground since World War II. They have been scoring lower highs and lower lows and this reflects a BEAR MARKET. This is part of the collapse in socialism coming because they just do not get it. The average person has been losing lifestyle ever since. The Gallup Poll has reported that 44% of Americans believe it is likely that today’s youth will have a better life than their parents. This has declined even since the 2007-2009. In fact, this is the lowest on record for a trend dating back to 1983.

You just can’t keep raising taxes and yelling about the rich. Raising taxes on the rich has NEVER lowered anyone else’s taxes or improved the life of the poor even once.

The lies are coming home. People like Hillary can pretend she cares about the poor, but she fills her pockets to the brim. People are waking up to reality. We are at record highs for children in their 30s still living with their parents.

The French elections saw something astonishing. Le Pen beat every mainstream party. Put this is American terms, imagine an election where the Republican and Democrats cannot even make it to the elections.

The Plight of Junk Science in All Fields

Junk Science is the real crisis we face as so many people think that Global Warming is caused by man and Co2. Of course, those who really believe this is the problem that will destroy the world perhaps should just commit suicide and take the dog with them. Since we exhale Co2 that would reduce the problem in their mind and save the world by setting a good example.

Junk Science plagues us in every field of science be it economics to health. For 25 years we were told that eggs are bad. How many people ordered egg whites only. Then the Junk Science was revised, but after 25 years, nobody noticed. When scientists learned that high blood cholesterol was associated with heart disease, they immediate black-listed all foods with high cholesterol content. It took 25 years of study to figure out – oops, we were wrong! You just didn’t really hear the “oops we were wrong” but instead you heard of another great danger – saturated fat! It became evident that cholesterol in food by itself was not the culprit after all — the real great evil was saturated fat, This is what had a much bigger effect on blood cholesterol when it was discovered that full-fat dairy products and fatty meats are loaded with saturated fat and that triggers the body to produce cholesterol.

This is the problem with analysis. The can conclude that everyone who has eaten a carrot eventually dies. That is an absolutely correct statement. They study one component and draw a correlation and thus produce the definitive relationship. They did that with interest rates. Higher rates means the stock market will decline. Oops. The Fed just raised rates and the Dow made a new high. Interesting! See it is the carrot paradox.

Money Theory

In economics, we had the Quantity of Money Theory that has driven central banks into Quantitative Easing expecting inflation and after 10 years of desperately trying to stimulate inflation, they have been beaten to a pulp by deflation. As always, they make a false simple assumption at the outset which then leads to the false result. They also fail to comprehend that there is the contraction within the economy creating deflation from technology advances. The work force is stagnant and unless they stay current with technology, they will quickly find themselves UNEMPLOYABLE with no useful skills.

Thank You God, For Men. Real Men.

The_Creation_of_Adam26 God said, ‘Let us make man in our own image, in the likeness of ourselves, and let them be masters of the fish of the sea, the birds of heaven, the cattle, all the wild animals and all the creatures that creep along the ground.’

27 God created man in the image of himself, in the image of God he created him, male and female he created them.

I had an experience this weekend that made me think about men, about masculinity. It seems manhood is under attack these days from many directions. Indeed, in my opinion, a part of what so offends so many people about President Trump, especially Hillary supporters, is his unapologetic masculinity. He is a man who knows his power and embraces it.

That being said (and I can’t believe I put it in here, knowing where it could lead) please don’t make this another political free for all. My point here is broader.

To all you guys out there, tough guys, whether you express that inner strength clad in a business suit or well worn jeans and work boots, please accept the appreciation and approval of those of us who celebrate who and what you are, and what you do. Every day in ways large and small, you go out and just get the job done. You don’t ask for approval, thanks, or cheers because it just wouldn’t occur to you, and you are too busy getting things done to stop for recognition. 

Lots of feminists have a problem with men. I believe they throw around terms like patriarchy,  which they probably never looked up in their Funk and Wagnalls. Some humans with an X chromosome, and a few without one, appear to be threatened by the reality of masculinity.

Get a grip chicks, if you are really okay with who and what you are, men are not a threat, but a gift, not competition, but complementary. If your “feminine power” must be derived from the destruction of the epic event of God’s creation, you are pathetic already and men have nothing to do with that failure, you own it.

I’m not even going to waste breathe here encouraging men to not allow women to define their masculinity. He who does that is already beyond my poor advice.

Men. All ages, sizes, colors, and other assorted variations. You were different from the moment of conception, and thank God for that. As a child you were faster, stronger, dirtier, and louder. You were often fearless while I stood beside you weighing the odds and assessing the situation. You climbed the tree while I looked for the ladder. You snuck out with the family car while I was cajoling dad for the keys.

In my day, back in the Dark Ages, as we grew into teens and young men and women, you actually appreciated my femininity and rewarded me with attention and admiration. Many of you were kind enough to open doors for me, walk alongside the curb beside me, and lift heavy objects before I tried to. You paid the bill for our dates, and if you ever wanted another one, you walked me to the door.

Because God is good, and loving, and gives us abundant graces and good things, in the early days of my womanhood, I fell in love with this wondrous creature God made from dust and clay. That right there ought to be a hint to us, man from dirt, earthy, strong, fundamental. But, I digress.

I married a man. A for real not apologizing for it man. He has muscles and strength and brawn and intelligence and toughness, a toughness that nothing in this world has ever even come close to breaking. Not even a little crack. Not once in all our years (41 Monday) has he ever even paused in the face of terrible trials and hardships. Now, I know him. I know that he isn’t a robot and he isn’t superman. Sure he’s had doubts, fears, and moments of desperation.

He never once, not one time, not ever considered giving in to them. On his shoulders landed the burdens that would have crushed me and our family without him. God alone knows the weight he bore. His faith was apparent and he led our family to church, led us in faith and worship. The kind that isn’t really so much talked about as lived.

So today, as we honor fathers, I just wanted to throw out a little appreciation for men. I pray that as the world turns and we learn from our mistakes, someday it is popular and honored for men to be men again. Soldiers, sailors, welders, business men, teachers, pipefitters, salesmen, truck drivers, nurses, doctors, lawyers, preachers, rabbis, priests. Fathers, husbands, sons.

Thank you God for making men. Thank you for making them in your image. If you, Father, are the model from which my husband was formed, I sure am going to be so happy to meet you. Thank you, for all the wonderful men you gifted us with, especially your Son.

The Plot to Overthrow Trump is VERY REAL!!!!!

There is a very REAL plot to overthrow Trump led by the political establishment and aided by the mainstream press.. This is not simply speculation – this is the real deal. Of course the Washington Post and New York Times are in full swing to get rid of Trump. No matter what it might be, the twist is always against Trump right down to the story how Sean Spicer wanted to see the Pope because he is a devote Catholic and was denied.

CNN, of course, is also part of this conspiracy. You will NEVER find any positive article about Trump in mainstream media. Here is CNN and we can see that 50% of the top stories are always against Trump. We have Boehner coming out saying Trump is a disaster. This is the guy who threw people off committees if they did not vote for his agenda. The Kushner story is desperately trying to make something out of nothing. Here we have after Flynn’s removal, Kushner suggesting setting up a direct channel for diplomatic purposes regarding Syria with the Russians. That is entirely within reason and has been done during confrontations in the past. This was only a suggestion. It was not done, yet the press twist this into somehow supporting Russia who single-handedly defeated Hillary and put Trump in office. They think if they can just keep selling that nonsense it will become a fact.. The press seems to want war with Russia and absolutely nothing else. No such link was established and the last thing you want to do is not talk to your adversary. So why is this a major story? Of yes. It’s again RUSSIA. The press created the Spanish American War. They supported the Vietnam War and kill more than 58,000 American boys, most of my high school friends died thanks to them.

Behind the Curtain, Republican Elites are conspiring to overthrow Trump (including Boehner) to protect the establishment. McCain and Graham are the worst of the lot in office. They obviously picked up the phone and called Boehner for help.

The Republicans have lost it. They think this “populism” is over with Macron’s victory in France so it’s time to get rid of Trump and it will all be OK again.

I have never seen such an all out effort on a massive coordinated effort to reject the people’s demand for reform. This is HIGHLY dangerous for we can very well move toward civil war. These people think getting rid of Trump and it will all be roses and raining money for them once again. They are DEAD wrong! Our model also warns that that United States can break up as a result of this by 2032-2040

Beware the Muni Bond Bubble


Municipal Bonds are in trouble in Europe as well as the United States. The local level cannot print money, nor are they ever capable of managing their economies. The general view is when short, just raise taxes. Everything comes to an end and we are looking at the end of a Muni-Bond Bubble. The strongest possible recommendation is get out before it is too late. Sure, not every municipality or state/province is in trouble – YET! Once the muni bond bubble bursts, there will be a contagion so even the ones that are not yet insolvent will tip over.

In the States, sell California and New England. The higher the tax rate, the deeper their debt will fall. Connecticut, for example, is hopeless as is New Jersey, New York, and just about all New England States. I was flying home from Hong Kong and upon landing in Newark, the next leg was back to Florida. I sat next to a woman from Connecticut who was going to visit her brother. She had a 1950s house 1600 square feet with taxes over $8,000 and could no longer afford to stay there for retirement. She was leaving as most people these days in what I call the Great Migration.

Connecticut’s general-obligation bonds are in deep trouble. The state’s tax collections are collapsing as people are getting out of town. Their debt is being downgraded and a $2.3 billion budget deficit is beyond hope. Tax receipts for the current fiscal year ending in June will be about $451 million short of estimates. Here too, it is the government employee pensions that are blowing everything apart at the seams. Public employees at least agreed to accept a 3-year wage freeze and to contribute more for their pension and health-care benefits under a tentative deal that would save more than $1.5 billion over the next two years. But that is just not enough.

The taxation has never been ending. Hedge fund managers are permanently relocating to Florida have been leaving New Jersey and Connecticut. When you count on taxing the rich, then one man can move out of and put the entire state budget at risk. Taxing the rich has its limits.

The motto of make the rich pay doesn’t work when the rich pick up and leave. You do not want to be the one still sitting. This game works opposite of the musical chairs game as a kid. This time, the one still sitting will have to pay the taxes for everyone who left. Then they will be unable to sell their house and leave because nobody wants to buy it because of the taxes.

President Trump in Saudi Arabia – The Big Picture…

The pageantry and scale of the royal reception toward President Trump and the U.S. is reflective of much more than a singular presidential visit to a nation and region of geo-strategic importance.

The word “reset” is frequent amid media reporting of the Saudi trip but few people have followed the recent regional history to thoroughly understand what exactly is being reset.

~ President Donald Trump and Saudi King Salman – Joint Statement.

President Trump is being recognized and respected by the regional Arab coalition for his specific approach and outward worldview which is based on eye-to-eye diplomacy.

Through the contacts, discussions, emissary meetings and individual diplomatic engagements over the past six months, the Arab region members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -and specifically Saudi Arabia- are overjoyed to find a fresh U.S. perspective based on mutual respect.

The pageantry/scale of the royal reception is directly proportional to the scale of respect being shown by the regional partners toward the worlds largest and most influential leader.

Around the world no-one doubts who is the biggest most significant nation; the size of the U.S. economy speaks for itself. It does not need to be proven – it is self evident.

What is different with the Trump administration as they engage each nation is the change in nationalistic outlook, and specifically foreign policy therein, toward other national leaders as independent sovereign representatives – with respect to their individual cultures and norms.

No longer is the U.S. approaching nations from an inherent need to prove we are ‘better than’, or leverage our interests into their neighborhood.

The expressed policy outlook of President Trump is for the United States to be the best; and through our actions and behaviors to lead on global initiatives that show how we define ourselves and our values. This approach is specifically centered around a policy position stating we do not need to demand acceptance of those values, and we respect independent nations’ that may hold values or beliefs not identical to our own.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has cultured this approach throughout each of his diplomatic engagements.   The U.S. leans forward on all Trump policy objectives through the perspective of our national needs first; but that does not necessarily mean we demand or force other nations into a compliance mindset.

Compliance implies aversarialism.  President Trump and Secretary Tillerson do not view international engagements as necessarily adversarial.

The U.S. can engage eye-to-eye with the same level of respect to the smallest as we exhibit toward the largest (our own size does not need to be part of the equation, it is self evident), and work policy objectives toward the point of mutual benefit.  If the engaged nation does not receive benefit from the policy, we do not demand an acceptance of it; and more importantly we express both an understanding and a respect of their position and inability.

This Trumpian approach, a willingness not to undermine and to accept the partners downside position within any policy, is grounded on inherent truth.

President Trump and Secretary Tillerson openly accept and admit when the engaged partner will be unable to meet our defined terms, we discuss what actions can be take to remove the inherent obstacle in the future, we make a commitment (or not) toward removing that obstacle, we shake hands, and we part company retaining the position of friendship and optimism for the potential of re-engagement at a later date.

In all recent previous administrations there was an implied message that engagement with the United States came with terms and conditions that might be antithetical to the sovereign nations’ best interests.  If you want “X” (their need) you must deliver “Y” (our need), and the “Y” might be something which creates conflict or tension.

President Trump and Secretary Tillerson ask about the impact of “Y”, the possibility of the downside, prior to making a decision on fulfillment of the request (“X”), but the inquiry does not necessarily preclude our willingness to deliver.

This dynamic is unique to the engaged nation because no member of the Trump Administration’s policy team is approaching any of the policies from a position of their own inherent politics.   Team Trump, writ large, represents America’s best interests, not the political construct of America’s best interests.  [Coincidentally this approach is why Trump has so much domestic opposition]

This non-political approach and respect, exhibits honesty within the transaction.  Yes, both Tillerson and Trump approach politics through the transactional prism, it’s what deal-makers do.

This non-political approach is what causes leaders like Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi make the following remarks:

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi: “I first saw the campaign of his excellency President Trump, and I listened to his speech of the neccessity of facing and confronting terrorism all over the world; that he is a great personality and a unique individual, and that he will find great success.”

“I fully trust the capabilities of President Trump, and I have full conviction that he can do things, exert efforts, that very few people can do.  And he can succeed in so many fields that others cannot.  I trust him wholeheartedly.”

“I followed all his announcements through his campaign, he has a very unique personality and administration, and now I’m speaking with full confidence of unprecedented success for him.  He is seeking the interests of the United States and the American people in a very clear manner, and a very direct manner. And a very strong manner as well.”

“His true will is a very strong will to counter terrorism and extremism in the world; and that is a very strong commitment from his excellency the president, and in addition I am very supportive with full force in facing this terrorism.”

“There is a true understanding to the realities in the region, and there is a seriousness and responsible actions in facing extremism and terrorism in the region, and that’s a wonderful thing indeed.  There is nothing better than to counter evil.”  (link)


Gold & Euro & Dollar

QUESTION: Marty; You said gold was still vulnerable in dollars but that the low was probably in place in Euros. I have been trying to reconcile that statement in my mind. The only way that happens is a real crisis in Europe and a strong dollar. Correct? It seems really naive that people get bullish on a few weeks of price movement and predict the next 10 years. The dollar first is week with Trump and bullish euro for Macron? Right?

Thank you for a lone voice in the wilderness of analysis.


ANSWER: Yes. Just compare the two chart patterns. Notice that gold in euros bottomed back in December 2013 compared to December 2015 in dollars. The numbers will not come down unless gold makes a new low in dollars. Then the breakout will drop from the 1362 level. Just looking at gold in euros exposes the real trend.

The fools keep saying see the euro rallies and the dollar declines so I have to be wrong. The European Central Bank is the one at risk of collapsing. Draghi bought 40% of all Eurozone debt. He raises interest rates at his own balance sheet takes the hit. This fool is really in trouble and then you have Germany turning against the Draghi. Neither the Fed nor the Bank of Japan are in such a dangerous position.

The perpetual dollar bears cannot see the light. Just how is the world economy going to crack with a lower dollar? They look at the dollar as if it is a SHARE PRICE up is bullish and down is bearish for America. Currency is the opposite of share prices. The higher the currency, the greater the deflation and the lower the economic growth. They never heard of “competitive devaluations” or currency wars. Every crisis has come with a rising dollar. The solution was a dollar devaluation as Roosevelt did in 1934. They look at everything backwards and that’s why the lose a fortune consistently buying highs.

Here is the CAC40 of France. The high in the French stock market is 1999. Yet everyone is cheering as if the US is down and Europe is the new wonderland?

Compare the German stock market in euros and in dollars. It has finally made new international highs only in 2015. We have to look at everything from a global perspective. The new highs in the Dax in international terms is ONLY because of the decline in the euro. With the bounce in the euro, the Dax will rally in euros, but only to a point.

A spike up in the dollar can be achieved from political chaos, but also geopolitical. Only a rise in the dollar will break the system and end the dollar as the reserve currency. The debt crisis we face is building and with higher interest rates, then there will be the risk for major loses overseas and capital will contract once again. It was the US capital outflows that rebuilt the world. A lower dollar encourages overseas investment. A higher dollar causes a contraction.

Only a total idiot forecasts the long-term by one month worth of price action. We need these fools to make the trends. Somebody has to buy the high and sell the low. This entire political-geopolitical mess us starting to bubble up. Why are two Republicans, McCain and Graham, acting as Trump’s worst enemy trying to destroy the Republican Agenda? They are being paid by their lobbyists to protect the corrupt establishment. They are against their own Party and should just join Hillary on vacation. Oh that’s right. They have the same backers. Graham’s number one contributors are law firms really on behalf of their clients to hide the source of the money I believe.

Global Market Watch Window to the World Interconnectivity

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have been on Socrates for about one year now on what you now call your standard edition. I have to say, you have done an amazing job of programming. To have a computer simply provide a comment that is short and to the point that you can look at the whole whole at your finer tips, is the most fantastic tool I have ever encountered. Its calls just on the Dow Jones have saved me countless multiples of the cost of service and I am a small investor. This is what you are expanding to over 5,000 instruments worldwide?

REPLY: Yes. The Global Market Watch was originally designed for hedge fund use and was inspired by one of our major institutional clients back in 1995. They did not have the time to read a written report on everything in their portfolio. They wanted a quick cheat-sheet that was visually a view of their portfolio. We use to sell this for $250,000 annually. However, since we are looking to simply open up Socrates to the world in hopes that it will ultimately help politically manage the economy rather than constantly shooting from the hip, the best way to prove the world is interconnected is to let everyone see for themselves.

Analysis is also changing. You still have the huxtsers who make up flashy headlines to sell stuff that is just opinion. Those days are fading. Under new EU Rules, investment banks charged fees for doing business and they gave you the research free if you did business with them. Indeed, that is how I started. The research was free as long as you were a client back in the days when I was a market-maker. When I retired, the clients still wanted the research. That was the beginning of our firm. Bit reports were delivered by telex so the communication costs would often reach $250,000 annually. That is why we were institutional only. Then came fax. The cost to deliver dropped from $50 to $3. Now we have the internet and the cost to deliver is basically zero.

We have institutions buying access per 100 for employees. For you see, research is changing. Under the new rules, research must be paid for separately. The London FT reported:

“Under draft rules published by the commission, the EU’s executive arm, last month, the fund industry’s decades-long practice of lumping together the fees they pay investment banks and brokers for research and trading will come to an end. Instead, for the first time, asset managers in Europe will have to make it clear to investors exactly what they are paying for.”

We have more people and institutions signing up than anyone would imagine. One bank just took 250 subscriptions for employees. Research has to be separate and accountable. It cannot be lumped in any more. Major institutions do not read the huxtsers who offer just opinion and all sorts of claims for they do not cover markets every day of a major scale. They also do not tell the press what they are doing until AFTER the fact. This is the only product like this in the world.

The Global Market Watch was designed as a wind into the inter-connectivity of the world. It does not matter if you are investing in India or Singapore and Greece. Being able to cover the world in a consistent manner that is completely computer driven so there is no human interaction and opinion is the key to the future. All other analysis will eventually die out and become obsolete. We live in a global economy and this domestic restricted view is primitive to say the least no much different from those who refused the believe that the Earth was not the center of the universe or the the Earth was no fla

Money Rushing in Emerging Markets & Europe – Really?

QUESTION: Martin; it seems the Emerging Markets are back in favor just as interest rates are on the rise and their dollar borrowings have exploded. Is this the final bubble that is unfolding? When the WSJ writes about a trend it is usually the end. They are noting that significant flows of funds are now going out of the US and into Europe. Is this time to sell the emerging markets and Europe? Picking up the rug here in Berlin, nothing seems to have really changed. Any comment?

ANSWER: Yes, the move back to Europe after the French election seems to be the relief rally that is always the case for hot money. The Emerging Market debt bubble is what I wrote about a few days ago that the rush to emerging markets has seen an explosion in new debt offerings. This is very alarming. People act like you should short the US stock market and buy Emerging Markets. You really have to wonder if they understand the global economy at all. The willingness of investors to buy debt securities is rooted in these bearish forecasts for U.S. equities. But the bulk of this is really desperate pensions funds who are in search of higher yields. This is by no means the start of some new Emerging Market boom of prosperity.  It reminds me of Andrew Melon’s comment when the stock market began to decline in 1929 before the bond meltdown in emerging markets back then: “Gentlemen buy bonds!”

The fool will jump in with both feet as always. You need people to buy the highs. The US equities have been in a sideways consolidation since February and their greatest vulnerability is Trump’s stupid firing of Comey that the Democrats are calling a Constitutional Crisis. Trump should have been wiser than this. The danger is this distraction holds off any tax reform for that has been the underpinning to the US equities.

A friend of mine was Chief of Staff in the White House years ago. We went to dinner after he won the position. He was so optimistic that he would be able to accomplish a lot. He knew my view he would never get to anything by the end of the day. After he left the White House we went to dinner. I said nothing. He burst out and said alright you SOB, I never got to a single thing I wanted to change. That is Washington for you. Trump’s greatest flaw is he fails to understand that. Stupid moves like firing Comey are costly. They will eat up time and delay everything if not block tax reform. Congress loves to investigate every leaf that falls to the ground and assign blame even in the middle of a wind storm. That’s just the way it goes in that city. Trump handed them a controversy on a gold platter.

As far as money rushing back to Europe, yes, there was the parking of money here for fear of the French election. But this is nothing more than a short-term knee-jerk reaction. European growth has nothing to offer long-term but higher taxes.

The US share market has been unable to make a significant correction and the numbers remains the same. The surge into emerging markets has been taking place over the past year and this has been the desperate search for higher yields. This is a bubble that is very dangerous and smells like the Russian one back in 1998.

The only way to bring about real economic change remains a rising dollar – not a lower one. That will kill the emerging markets. The US share market remains flat-to-lower and only a breakout to new highs will signal the next leg up. The main area to watch is the 20000 level in the Dow on a weekly closing basis.

Not a single European bank parking money at the Fed through their US branches have reversed that trade. Not a single major player among our clients has been a buyer of Emerging Market debt in this bubble. So the flows written about by the WSJ are indeed the tail-end and not some major brand new trend emerging