Earlier today President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump hosted the annual congressional picnic at the White House.

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The money quote from Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in the role of magnanimous panda as he departs Chairman Kim:

“This visit has achieved complete success in reinforcing the traditional friendship between China and North Korea”..

Kim remains hostage, and Xi highlights his captive capabilities in advance of the G20 ‘expanded’ meeting with President Trump in Osaka, Japan.  Magnanimous panda thinks he’s created leverage for hostage release negotiations with Trump in exchange for economic and trade concessions… except he hasn’t.

Beijing has fallen into a trap created by a combination of their cultural approach toward geopolitical confrontation and an echo-chamber that does not allow -or consider- warnings from dissenting voices.  In essence, it might sound goofy considering the magnitude of the issues at hand, but Beijing doesn’t know President Trump.

One of the reasons for the miscalculation is likely due to Beijing weighing their analysis and strategy based on typical Western reporting similar to THIS ARTICLE in the New York Times.

NYT […] Before Mr. Xi landed in Pyongyang on Thursday, American officials said they expected him to try to secure Mr. Kim’s promise to take steps on nuclear weapons that might appeal to Mr. Trump, in hopes of gaining leverage for China in the trade dispute.

Mr. Xi signaled as much in a televised session with Mr. Kim on his first afternoon in Pyongyang, when he emphasized the need for the North and the United States to revive talks that broke down in Vietnam in February, when Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump last met.

“The international community hopes that North Korea and the United States can talk and for the talks to get results,” Mr. Xi said, sitting across a table from Mr. Kim. (read more)

That Western outlook is what has led to the miscalculation by Chairman Xi.

It would appear that former ‘special envoy’ and Chinese negotiator, Vice-Premier Liu He, did have a solid understanding of President Trump.  However, after working closely with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Beijing summarily rejected the deal and removed the status of Liu He as a direct representative voice of Chairman Xi.

With that, everything collapsed. Hence, the current status.

The ongoing miscalculation is really quite simple.  Thinking that he can leverage the stability of the DPRK (his proxy province) in a trade discussion with President Trump, Chairman Xi has positioned himself as the arbiter of a denuclearized North Korea.  However, in doing so Xi has taken public ownership of any future DPRK hostilities.

China has always held control over North Korea as a hedge against Western interests; however, Beijing has always strategically denied their influence.  This dynamic is the center of the issue. This is what President Trump needed to change.

From the perspective of President Trump engaging with Chairman Xi, the removal of the curtain hiding the control is just as valuable as removal of the control itself.

A withdrawal by China (hostage released), or the public appearance of the control by China (captive admission) serves the same purpose.  The DPRK cannot mount hostile action.  Chairman Xi now owns the problem of any North Korean hostilities.

That connection was all President Trump needed strategically in order to confront China and remove the worry of hostile actions coordinated by Beijing through Chairman Kim.

Chairman Xi walks into the G20 to negotiate with President Trump, but selling influence over the DPRK to gain a better trade outcome no longer has value.

Lots of differing opinion on the decision by POTUS to cancel a retaliatory strike against Iran.  Some praise and some criticize.   Here’s President Trump’s reason for cancelling the strike against Iran:

As it relates to the Trump doctrine, CTH would note any current ally of the U.S; and/or any entity engaged with significant economic interests attached to the U.S; including any EU entity who might have previously been skirting the sanctions against Iran (think Turkey); would now be very cautious about appearing on President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin’s proverbial radar.

President Trump announced on Twitter last week about an enhanced immigration enforcement action to remove illegal aliens.  National Border Patrol Council president Brandon Judd appears on Fox Business to discuss the upcoming program.

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Interestingly, no-one has wondered why there would be such advanced and public notification of the upcoming enhanced enforcement. Curiouser and curiouser…

Chairman Xi Jinping arrives in North Korea to support the “correct thinking” within his proxy province and hostage Kim Jong-Un.   Magnanimous Panda, and defender of all enlightened Asian progress, exhibited great smiles as nervous Kim worries over the dust on the military shoestrings.  WATCH:

(Reuters) BEIJING (Reuters) – The world hopes North Korea and the United States can talk to each other and for those talks to be successful, Chinese President Xi Jinping told North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Thursday, praising Pyongyang’s efforts toward denuclearization.

Xi is visiting China’s reclusive neighbor North Korea, seeking to bolster a longtime ally hit by U.N. sanctions over its nuclear and missile programs, a week before Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump meet amid a bitter trade dispute.

Xi, whose entourage includes the head of China’s state economic planner, will be in North Korea for two days, the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years, and could bring fresh support measures for its floundering, sanctions-bound economy.

Kim Jong Un and his wife, Ri Sol Ju, greeted Xi at the airport, Chinese state TV said. Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, and officials who played prominent roles in recent nuclear talks with the United States were also on hand.

Xi was driven through Pyongyang in a convertible car, standing with Kim at his side, and greeted warmly by massed, cheering crowds on his way to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, a complex that serves as the mausoleum for North Korea’s founder, Kim Il Sung, the report said.

Xi told Kim he had come to consolidate a traditional friendship and to promote the political process for a resolution of the Korean peninsula issue, it added.

Xi “positively appraised” North Korea’s efforts to safeguard peace and stability on the peninsula and promote denuclearization, state television said.

“The situation on the Korean peninsula concerns regional peace and stability,” the report paraphrased Xi as telling Kim at their formal meeting.

“The international community hopes that North Korea and the United States can talk and for the talks to get results.” (read more)

Magnanimous Panda Chairman Xi appreciates the welcome, and will now show the world the brilliant and purposeful peace that can only be achieved by following the Chinese model of great guidance and enlightenment.

Thank you Magnanimous Panda.  The world can never be worthy of your consideration, guidance and great leadership.   Peace for the Korean people will be achieved because Magnanimous Panda raises the collective responsibility of all human consciousness.

Thus, we enter a phase of great nuance and subtle signaling where we will need to carefully evaluate the scale of hostage release. Obviously western media -writ large- are oblivious to the multidimensional hostage dynamic; heck, most major western media don’t even acknowledge that China controls North Korea… So we have a front row seat to review the generally coded signals.

In the dynamic of the denuclearization of North Korea, the most likely scenario is Chairman Xi playing the role of magnanimous panda and *guiding* Chairman Kim Jong Un into the world of nations. Hence the op-ed outlined yesterday.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be positioned as the hero so that Xi doesn’t look like he lost Kim to Trump.  However, what we don’t know is how much autonomy Chairman Xi will allow Chairman Kim.  It’s the “guiding” part we need to watch closely.

Beijing isn’t going to let Kim go fully antonymous and independent; not when they share a border; and certainly not after generations of strategic influence and control over the DPRK as a proxy province and hedge against the West.

Unfortunately, South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be useless as a counter wedge against the cunning of Xi Jinping in this very important aspect. Moon is essentially the Asian Obama; and has about as much strategic intelligence, foresight and usefulness, as a bag-of-rocks being used as a weather vane.

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Chairman Xi now owns any actions taken by North Korea.  Whether Xi releases his hostage, or the more likely scenario, he retains control but the nuclear threat is removed, matters not.

The open engagement by Xi now transfers all DPRK behavior openly to Beijing.  North Korea is no more a nuclear threat than China.  Technically, this has always been the reality; however, now things are public. China cannot hide or deny their involvement.

Chairman Kim may never be freed, but for U.S. interests the Nuclear threat is gone.

Remember, generally speaking President trump held two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon; and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.

The first objective has been achieved.  President Trump can now go into full economic war against China without the worry of Beijing using Pyongyang to launch rockets.

The G20 in Osaka should be lots of fun…

Justin from Canada travels to the White House for a conversation with President Trump about the USMCA deal, ratification, and a request from Canada for assistance in their conflict with China.  The relationship between President Trump and the arrogant Justin from Canada is tenuous at best.  [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript] 12:10 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. We had some good news. The market hit a all-time high today. The S&P just broke its record, so we’re very happy about that. The stock market continues to do well. Jobs have been literally through the roof. And, speaking of jobs, we have the USMCA with Canada, with Mexico. And we’ve come a long way. It’s a great agreement. As you know, Mexico, yesterday, approved it.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: Yep.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: — through the very positive vote. And you’re doing very well, I understand, also.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: We are.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: But it’s an honor to have the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau. He’s been a friend of mine. We’ve worked hard together. We worked, in particular, on the USMCA. And we hope to have bipartisan support. I think, Justin, you’re going to be making the rounds at Congress later on?

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: Meeting a few people.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: That’s a terrific thing. But it’s great to have you.

So, we’re going to be talking about that. And, generally, we’ll be talking trade and other things. And we’re then going to have lunch and some meetings. And it’s an interesting day, but it will be, like, a positive day, I think, like usual. That’s the way we want to have it. We want to have very positive days. We only have positive days.

So I want to thank you very much, Justin, for coming to the White House.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: Thank you, Donald.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you. Please.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: Thank you, Donald, for this meeting. It’s an opportunity for us, as you say, to keep talking about how we’ve worked hard to build a great trade deal that’s good for Canadian workers, good for American workers, good for Mexican workers as well.

We’re moving forward on the ratification process aligned with you. Obviously, today, as well, on top of the great news on the Canadian and American economies, we’re continuing to work on a broad range of global issues. Obviously, there’s news today we’re going to be talking about as well.

But this is just a really great opportunity for us to continue to work and to develop and to build on the closest alliance in the world, between Canada and the United States.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, this will be the largest trade deal ever made, and it won’t even be close. If you take a look at the numbers, second is so far away, you don’t even call it second. So it’s very exciting. And very exciting for Mexico; very exciting for Canada.

And I have to also thank the President of Mexico because he’s really been doing a job on the border and a job in Mexico. A lot of very positive things have happened. And the flow has very substantially slowed down. They have 6,000 Mexican troops on their southern border. And it’s been — it’s really been a tremendous difference.

So I want to thank Mexico and the people of Mexico. Now, this has only been for a short period of time. Our country has been asking for this for 45 years, approximately. And they’re doing it now. And we very much appreciate that Mexico is doing that. It’s going to have a big impact. It’s already had a big impact.

So, with that, I thank you very much. And we’re going to get on with our discussions. Thank you.

This is the new —

(A model plane is presented on the table.)

Q Mr. President, how will you respond?

Q On Iran, sir —

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I was going to say this is the new Air Force One, which we ordered, which they’ve been trying to order for a lot of years. We were able to shave $1.5 billion off the price. When I got here, they were going to spend a lot more money than we spent. And I would say the plane basically is an upgrade over that model. We actually are getting things that they didn’t get. We’re saving about $1.5 billion. So it’s going to be terrific. It’s under construction, right now, by Boeing.

Go ahead. Question?

Q Mr. President, how will you respond to Iran?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Iran made a big mistake. This drone was in international waters, clearly. We have it all documented. It’s documented scientifically, not just words. And they made a very bad mistake. Okay?

Q How will you respond, Mr. President? How will you respond?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: You’ll find out.

Q Does that mean you’re planning to do something?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: You’ll find out. You’ll find out. I mean, obviously — obviously — obviously, you know, we’re not going to be talking too much about it. You’re going to find out. They made a very big mistake.

Q Mr. President, what are your concerns about China and the Canadians who are detained, sir?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: No concerns. We’ll be discussing that. It’ll be one of the issues that I think we’ll be discussing right now with Justin.

Q Mr. President, the Fed made no change to the interest rate.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Say it?

Q The Fed made no change to the interest rate yesterday.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I guess they indicated they’re going to be lower. He should’ve done sooner, but what are you going do? Can’t win them all. He should’ve have done it sooner, but you can’t win it all. And, eventually, he’ll do what’s right, perhaps. Let’s see what he does.

Q Do you intend to bring (inaudible)?

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: Obviously, we’re very concerned about the escalation by Iran recently. We have significant presence in the area, including leading on the NATO mission in Baghdad, in Iraq.

We look forward to discussing with our closest ally — their perspectives on this — and how we can move forward as an international community.

Q Will you help Justin Trudeau get a meeting with Xi Jinping at the G20 next week to talk about the detained Canadians?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I don’t know that he’s trying to meet. Are you trying to get a meeting?

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: We’ve got a lot of things to discuss.

Q He wants one, but Xi won’t meet with him.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, otherwise, I’ll represent him well, I will tell you. We have a meeting set up with President Xi, and it’s obviously on the big transaction that we’re talking about and negotiating. Our people are actually speaking now, and we’ll see what happens with that. But anything I can do to help Canada, I will be doing.

Q Are you planning to bring it up with President Xi when you meet with him?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Excuse me?

Q Are you planning to bring it up with President Xi when you meet with him?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I would. At Justin’s request, I will absolutely bring that up.

Q When the USMCA is ratified, sir, will that be the end of tariffs?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Don’t say “when.”

Q When it is ratified. “If” it is ratified.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Don’t say “when,” because, so far, I have to get the Democrats to approve it. So, I like your positive thinking. But if — and the “if” is really subject to the Democrats. Let’s see what happens.

But I really believe that Nancy Pelosi and the House will approve it. I think the Senate will approve it rapidly. It’s going to be very bipartisan. It’s great for the farmers, manufacturers. It’s really great for everybody. And unions. It’s great for unions. I mean, we have tremendous union support too. It’s a tremendous — it really is; it shows a partnership between three countries.

And it’s sort of three countries — in a trade sense, we’re competing with the European Union. We’re competing with China. It gives us a bigger dialogue. It gives us a much bigger platform. It’s really good for all three. It’s something that’s very popular. I hope, politically, they can do what they have to do.

Now, a day after the election, it would win with tremendous support. But we have an election coming up. But I think Nancy Pelosi is going to do the right thing.

Q And will that be the end of tariffs on Canada and Mexico?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, we’ll see. I mean, you know, they have to do what they have to do. We understand that. We can’t have big, tremendous shipments of certain products. So we understand that very well.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: We were very pleased with the lifting of the tariffs on steel and aluminum.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: They’ve been lifted, as you know, and there won’t be, hopefully, transshipping. If there’s transshipping, I’ll call Justin and I’m sure he’ll take care of it. And if he doesn’t take — I’ll probably call him a second time. And if he doesn’t, then we’ll have to talk, right?

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: We’re going to be fine.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: But I think that that situation is very well taken care of. Very important for both countries and for all three countries: the farmers. Very, very important. More so in that case, from us and Canada. But the farmers are really happy with it. The manufacturers are very happy. Mexico is thrilled. You saw the vote. It was a very lopsided — in a positive way — vote. A great vote. And I think it’s going to be something very special.

Again, it’s the largest trade deal, by far, ever entered into. And we’re very close to having it finalized. This means a lot of jobs for our country; a lot of wealth for all three countries. And we’re really competing against the world. You know, we’re not competing with each other so much. This brings us into a position where we’re not competing with each other; we’re competing against the world. And that’s what we’re doing.

We’re competing against big sections of the world, including Asia and including other areas. And I think it’s going to be very special. I think it’s going to end up being a very important deal, but the biggest ever made.

Q Will you invite the Toronto Raptors to the White House, sir?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Say it?

Q Will you invite the Toronto Raptors to the White House? I’m from the Toronto Star. I have to ask.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, we thought about that. That’s an interesting question. They played phenomenal basketball. I watched a little bit of it. They were really terrific. Congratulations, by the way. That was a great job by a great team. So we’ll think about that. If they’d like to do it, we’ll think about that.

We have a lot of other folks coming. And the presidential medal — I just spoke to him — we’re going to be presenting the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Roger Penske. Roger Penske is a great gentleman who has won 18 Indianapolis 500s. He’s won — just won Daytona. He won Daytona. He won Indianapolis. He won probably more than anybody in the history of racing. I can’t imagine anybody even being close.

But Roger Penske is going to be getting the Medal of Freedom, and he’s very thrilled to be getting it. And that’ll be announced over the next little while, but, I guess, actually, I’m announcing it pretty much now. But they’ll be — (laughter) — they’ll be putting something out. They’ll be putting something out in a little while.

He’s very deserving. He’s a great gentleman. I’ve known him a long time. And a very brilliant guy. When you think of all the countries that want to win Indianapolis and Daytona, and they fight and they spend — even Canada; they spend a lot of money and they —

And, you know, when a man wins Indianapolis, when he wins it 18 times — and he just won the Daytona. And he won many things over the course of years, and he’s become a very successful man.

We talked about electric cars today. I think nobody knows more about that subject, in terms of common sense, than Roger Penske. So Roger Penske will be getting and receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Q Mr. President, you said Iran is a “different country.” Do you still hold that opinion?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Oh, absolutely. When I came here, Iran was in 14 to 18 different sites of confliction. They were extremely hostile. They were hostile when they signed the deal. They were screaming, “Death to America.” And I think, probably, Iran made a mistake. I would imagine it was a general or somebody that made a mistake in shooting that drone down.

And, fortunately, that drone was unarmed. It was not — there was no man in it, and there was no — it was just — it was over international waters; clearly over international waters. But we didn’t have a man or woman in the drone. We had nobody in the drone. It would have made a big difference, let me tell you. It would have made a big, big difference.

But I have a feeling — I may be wrong and I may right, but I’m right a lot. I have a feeling that it was a mistake made by somebody that shouldn’t have been doing what they did. I think they made a mistake. And I’m not just talking the country made a mistake. I think that somebody under the command of that country made a big mistake.

Q Are you still open to talking to Iran’s leadership?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Let’s just see what happens. You just — let’s see what happens. It’s all going to work out.

Q (Inaudible) to strike the drone?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Say it?

Q Are you saying you think it wasn’t intentional to strike the drone?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I don’t know. I find it hard to believe it was intentional, if you want to know the truth. I think that it could have been somebody who was loose and stupid that did it. But we’ll be able to report back, and you’ll understand exactly what happened. But it was a very foolish move, that I can tell you.

Q Do you feel like there are members of your administration who are trying to push you into conflict with Iran?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: No, not at all. Not at all. In fact, in many cases, it’s the opposite.

But I will say — look, I said I want to get out of these endless wars. I campaigned on that: I want to get out. We’ve been in Afghanistan for 19 years. As you know, we’ve reduced very substantially in Afghanistan.

We beat the caliphate. We took back 100 percent of the caliphate. When it was 99 percent, Justin, I said, “We’re going to get out. We’re going to start peeling back.” And everybody went crazy because it was 99. So I said, “All right. So we’ll finish it up.” So we got 100 percent, and we’re pulling that back, out of Syria. We’re pulling a lot of people back.

But this is something — this is a new wrinkle. This is a new fly in the ointment, what happened shooting down the drone. And this country will not stand for it, that I can tell you.

Thank you very much.

Q (Inaudible.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I can’t hear you.

Q (Inaudible) Hicks testifying yesterday?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: No, she was terrific. I heard she was terrific. Really great. She’s a great — she’s a great person, and I heard she was terrific yesterday.

Thank you very much.

END 12:25 P.M. EDT

Iran didn’t just shoot down a simple ‘drone’, Iran used a surface-to-air missile to shot down one of the most technologically advance U.S. aircraft costing $123 million; more than the price of an F-35 stealth fighter jet.

The targeted aircraft was a US Navy Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS-D); a RQ-4A Global Hawk high-altitude long endurance (HALE) drone, flying in international airspace over the Gulf of Oman.

“The RQ-4 flies at upwards of 65,000 feet,” Tyler Rogoway, the editor of The War Zone, wrote. “So this would have been a sophisticated radar-guided surface-to-air missile that shot the aircraft down, not a shoulder-fired, heat-seeking missile.”

(Business Insider)The US military called the incident “an unprovoked attack on a US surveillance asset in international airspace” over the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf. The Iranians have accused the US drone of entering Iranian airspace, an allegation Central Command characterized as completely false.

President Trump responds below:

Iran didn’t just shoot down a simple ‘drone’, Iran used a surface-to-air missile to shot down one of the most technologically advance U.S. aircraft costing $123 million; more than the price of an F-35 stealth fighter jet.

The targeted aircraft was a US Navy Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS-D); a RQ-4A Global Hawk high-altitude long endurance (HALE) drone, flying in international airspace over the Gulf of Oman.

“The RQ-4 flies at upwards of 65,000 feet,” Tyler Rogoway, the editor of The War Zone, wrote. “So this would have been a sophisticated radar-guided surface-to-air missile that shot the aircraft down, not a shoulder-fired, heat-seeking missile.”

(Business Insider)The US military called the incident “an unprovoked attack on a US surveillance asset in international airspace” over the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf. The Iranians have accused the US drone of entering Iranian airspace, an allegation Central Command characterized as completely false.

President Trump responds below:

President Donald Trump calls in to Sean Hannity for an extensive 45 minute interview on a variety of subjects.  Here’s the Full Interview: