Jumpin’ Ju-Ju Bones – CNBC Finally Gets It – A Stunned Jim Cramer: “Trump’s Trade Strategy Is Working”…


Hat Tip OverTheMoonbat for making sure we didn’t miss this segment from last week.  This video also explains why Larry Kudlow, Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross and Peter Navarro have tended to spend more time discussing economic policy with CNBC analysts than Fox Business.   However, before watching, it is worth revisiting the background.

For three years CTH has explained the challenge in dealing with, or renegotiating with, the Beijing, China ideology.  Encapsulated thus in 2018:

[…] China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other.

China accepts and believes opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Flowing between these polar states is a natural dynamic to be used -with serious contemplation- in advancing objectives as needed.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.

If it does not benefit China, it is not done !

Therefore the economic battle must be carefully waged to deliver a series of alternative thoughts in the mind of Beijing – where they view specific action as their best interest.

Any reversal in the current standard of benefit is viewed as a loss; the Chinese will not cede to any losses.  To challenge those who hold this zero-sum position, you must first change the current standard.

This means China must lose first before the negotiations can begin.  The baseline within the negotiation must be reset.  Once the baseline position is reset, then negotiation can be viewed by the Chinese as a gain.  This is the only way to get the Chinese to agree to any terms.

If the baseline losses to China are not currently firmed, such that Beijing and Xi Jinping see their current position as the standard, then President Trump and Bob Lighthizer need to wait longer before engaging.

Big Panda must see their diminished bamboo forest as the natural, current, and diminishing forecast status.  Only then will Panda engage in negotiations.  China must be in a seemingly perpetual stasis of losing before they will contemplate their need to achieve gains.  (read more)

That 2018 CTH discussion explains the basic issue in dealing with China.  Any financial pundit or Wall Street analyst who does not start their review of President Trump’s trade policy from that foundation would always be lost. This disconnect in basic understanding has been frustrating for years.

However, check out this video segment from Jim Cramer.

For the first time a mainstream analyst is finally starting to “get it”.  In a departure from the customary analysis of President Trump’s trade leverage, Mr. Cramer finally sees the Big Picture. WATCH:

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Hey, it’s progress...

Sunday Talks: Defense Secretary Mark Esper -vs- Chris Wallace Debate Turkey, Syria, Kurds and Ultimately The Ottoman Empire and TheMuslim Brotherhood…


Defense Secretary Mark Esper discusses and defends President Trump’s smart decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Northern Syria in advance of Turkish forces launching an assault into Syria against Kurdish forces and the SDF.

The background here goes back to Turkish President Recep Ergodan, a gatekeeper between the middle-east and Europe; and his intention to use his ideological alignment with political Islam, via the Muslim Brotherhood, to recreate the Ottoman Empire.

Kaddaffi (Libya), Hosni Mubarak (Egypt), Abdullah Salah, and Ben Ali (Tunisia). “The Islamist Spring” Gatekeepers.

Extensive Phone Interview – President Trump Interviewed by Judge Jeanine…


Earlier this evening President Trump called into to Fox News host Judge Jeanine for an extensive interview covering a lot of current events.

UPDATE: Louisiana Governor Primary Results Thread: John Bel Edwards -VS- Abraham/Rispone Challenge


President Trump rallied last night in Louisiana to support a challenge to incumbent Democrat Governor John Bel Edwards. The goal is to hold JBE under 50% and force a run-off against a republican challenger.

The national Democrats have made this race a referendum on the Trump impeachment agenda, saying if JBE can win in Louisiana then it proves Trump is weak enough to be impeached.

Mr. Edwards has tried not to make this a national referendum.

If President Trump and the Republican challengers, U.S. Representative Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone, can hold Edwards to less than 50%, then one of them will challenge Governor Edwards in a state-wide runoff for the governor position.

  UPDATE: Mission Accomplished.  John Bel Edwards has been held under 50% and will face Republican businessman “Eddie” Rispone in a run-off to decide the governors race.

Link to Louisiana Secretary of State Results Here

AP Race Results HERE

Here’s the results so far.  With 82% of precincts reporting JBE is at 46%

JBE is currently at 45%. Well under the votes he needs to avoid a runoff.

Link to Louisiana Secretary of State Results Here

AP Race Results HERE

Stephen Miller Discusses the “Fourth Unelected Branch of Government” and the Impeachment Agenda…


White House senior policy adviser Stephen Miller appears with Jesse Watters to discuss the ongoing impeachment efforts and the political agenda of those within the administrative state who are opposed to President Trump.

President Trump Delivers Remarks to Value Voters Summit – 6:30pm ET Livestream…


President Trump delivers remarks at the 2019 Values Voter Summit.  Anticipated start time approximately 6:30pm to 7:00pm EDT.

UPDATE – Video Added

WH Livestream Link – NBC Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link

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President Trump MASSIVE MAGA Rally, Lake Charles, Louisiana – 8:00pm ET Livestream…


Tonight high energy President Donald Trump travels to Lake Charles, Louisiana, to hold a Keep America Great Rally at James E. Sudduth Coliseum. President Trump is expected to speak at 7:00pm CDT / 8:00pm EDT.

RSBN Livestream Link – GST Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link

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Little League Champs “Catch a Ride Home” With President Trump – Video…


Lucky Day, Lucky Day!  The president is traveling with the Eastbank All-Stars team, who recently won the Little League World Series Championship. They were told they are “catching a ride home” to Louisiana.  Cool stuff!  WATCH:

Steve Scalise

@SteveScalise

The champs are flying back to Louisiana on Air Force One with @realDonaldTrump after celebrating their Little League World Series Championship victory at The @WhiteHouse!

What an amazing day! I’m so proud of this team! ⚾️🏆

View image on Twitter
5,774 people are talking about this

Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸

@Scavino45

After today’s @WhiteHouse visit and celebration, President @realDonaldTrump offered the @LittleLeague World Series CHAMPS a ride home on Air Force One! We’re wheels up and en route to Louisiana! Read more on their INCREDIBLE accomplishment here: https://www.littleleague.org/world-series/2019/llbws/news/southwest-defeats-caribbean-8-0-captures-little-league-baseball-world-series-title/  https://twitter.com/stevescalise/status/1182761012468035584 

Embedded video

Steve Scalise

@SteveScalise

The champs are flying back to Louisiana on Air Force One with @realDonaldTrump after celebrating their Little League World Series Championship victory at The @WhiteHouse!

What an amazing day! I’m so proud of this team! ⚾️🏆

View image on Twitter
5,745 people are talking about this

President Trump Impromptu Remarks and Presser Departing White House – Video


Chopper pressers are the best pressers. Earlier this evening as President Trump departing the White House for a rally in Louisiana, he paused to take questions from the press pool. [Video Below, Transcript Will Follow]

Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸

@Scavino45

President Trump departing the @WhiteHouse shortly for Louisiana! https://www.pscp.tv/w/cHDhtTFvTlFsTFJub1dwUXd8MURYR3lwWm13UWtLTVmvhVMMhOZQHK4TQYVNcsaOwyylB670SApZ2BG7VLO5 

Dan Scavino Jr. @Scavino45

President Trump departing the @WhiteHouse shortly for Louisiana!

pscp.tv

3,417 people are talking about this

Analysis – President Trump and Vice Premier Liu He Announce “Phase One” Trade Agreement – Video


Lots of dragon-dancing with a very hungry panda.

President Trump, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gathered with their Chinese counterparts in the Oval Office for a lengthy  announcement of “phase-one” of a U.S-China trade agreement.  Vice-Premier Liu He leads the Chinese delegation.  [No point sheet on USTR website yet]  According to the presser:

Phase One has reached ‘agreement in principle‘, and includes: Intellectual Property issues; Banking and Financial Services to include currency devaluation; and major agricultural purchases ($50 billion +).  There will be several phases, and each phase will have an individually tailored enforcement mechanism. [Note: this approach sounds similar to the ‘six sectors and stages’ USTR Lighthizer discussed in March 2019.]

The Phase One agreement details still have to be put on paper over the next five to six weeks.  The U.S. and China are hopeful to have ‘phase one‘ complete by December. In exchange for current AG purchase commitments, and as an act of good faith while phase-one is finalized, the U.S. will suspend the tariff rate increases scheduled to take effect on October 15th. The tariff increase from 25% to 30% has been ‘suspended‘.

The scheduled U.S. tariff increases for December are still planned; however, they will be assessed as part of the ongoing negotiations.  Meanwhile, touchy issues like tech company Hauwei, 5G, telecom and the Chinese firms on the U.S. blocked “entity list” (ie. trade ‘blacklist’) are not part of the discussions.  Those issues fall under U.S. National Security and will not be part of any ongoing trade negotiations.

[Video Below]

Overall I wouldn’t read too much more into this than appears on the surface.

China needs to buy food.  There are a limited number of export markets that can generate the scale of agricultural imports that China demands.  A hungry Chinese people only make the issues in/around Hong Kong worse.   Pandas can become very aggressive when hungry….  China needs to buy food.

President Trump wants to sell food to help the U.S. farmers; mostly operating under BIG AG multinational contracts (ie. contract farming).   The scale of Chinese purchases is too significant to overlook….  So Trump trades the suspension of a 5% tariff to gain $50 billion in farm purchases.  That’s most of the visible picture on this deal.

That said…. as USTR Lighthizer has previously stated, the issues of consequence are going to be in the enforcement mechanisms.  An agreement on IP and Banking/Financial Services is great, but the part that matters is the enforcement mechanism.  I wouldn’t put too much faith in Phase-1 being successful until we see some indication that China will acquiesce to U.S. enforcement provisions.

If you say: “China will never comply with U.S. enforcement”… well, I wouldn’t disagree; nor would USTR Lighthizer… he’s admitted as such.  So is a deal really possible?  Too soon to know, and too few details.

Panda gets food. Farmers get sales.  That’s the only known takeaway so far.

All other pro -vs- con analysis (predictions and projections) are for domestic audiences, politics and stock market consumption.  I still think an actual deal is unlikely.

Right now we’ve got happy pandas and happy farmers…. everything else is TBD.

xi jinping letter to president trump