Giddy up. Two days of intense trade discussions begin today in the Eisenhower building led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and his Chinese counterpart Vice Premier Liu He. The stakes are high as the deadline for an agreement is March 2nd.
Ambassador Lighthizer is joined by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and China’s arch nemesis, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro.
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Adding to the intensity, the United States just charged Chinese telecommunications company Huawei Technologies and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, with conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Iran by doing business through a subsidiary. Ms. Meng was arrested in Canada at the request of the United States; her extradition has been requested by the Department of Justice.
President Trump has made sure the Chinese are aware the status quo cannot stand. Additionally, USTR Lighthizer has previously affirmed that significant, substantive and deliverable progress must be made to avoid pending tariff increases.
This is the first time China has faced such significant and openly hostile push-back within a trade discussion. To say the talks are tense would be a massive understatement. President Trump wants a deal; however, Trump, Lighthizer, Ross and Mnuchin have already put the consequences for failure in the middle of the table.
China knows what will happen on March 2nd, if they do not negotiate in full faith.
Beijing has provided little indication these current officials are willing to address the core U.S. demands to fully protect American intellectual property rights and end policies that Washington has said force U.S. companies to transfer technology to Chinese firms. Thus the severity of the two-day talks takes on a very confrontational tone.
Additionally the U.S. Team have previously accused China of cyber theft and illicit acquisition of U.S. technological trade secrets. China’s prior acquisition of U.S. technology firms is the basis for President Trump to leverage pending U.S. tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.
If an agreement is not reached President Trump will raise tariffs on $200 billion of goods from 10 percent to 25 percent, effective with the March 2nd deadline. The U.S. administration has also threatened new tariffs on the totality of all remaining Chinese products shipped to the United States.
Initially China retaliated with their own tariffs; however, following the dinner between Chairman Xi and President Trump China suspended some of their reciprocal tariffs on U.S. agriculture.
Lastly, President Trump has blunted the traditional leverage of the Red Dragon by agreeing to meet with North Korea Chairman Kim Jong-un. Not coincidentally the timing for that summit intersects with the deadline for the U.S-China trade deal.
When you plant your trees in another man’s orchard, don’t be surprised if you end up paying for your own apples…
There is a very interesting aspect of our model which will begin to come into play in 2020. The cycle is changing here in 2019 and we are entering a period of a new political trend into 2023. This not such a great thing for either party. What is clearly taking place is that the shutdown seems to have been a turning point. True, Trumps polls have collapsed to 37% approval. But at the same time, faith in Congress has also collapsed. This is introducing a trend our model has been pointing to – the rise of a 3rd Party going all the way into 2024. Polls are fickle. It is a long time between here and the election in 2020.
The attention span of the people seems to be too short to remember this shutdown one two years from now. Trump miscalculated. The President is ALWAYS credited or blamed because people assume the President is all powerful. So Pelosi understood that no matter what she does, Trump will be blamed and not her. Trump had to yield for the shutdown will reduce the GDP and he will be unable to say he has done a good job with a strong economy. That is just how politics works in Washington and it was a hard lesson Trump had to learn. Still, the damage is not really about the shutdown itself. It seems to be centered on the fact that both sides acted like children demonstrating that neither party seems capable of managing anything.
When we arrive at 2020, this is the big turning point for a 3rd Party. The Press and career politicians on both sides are out to get Trump simply because he is not one of them. But that does not mean the people are ready to surrender to career politicians once again. The crazy thing on our model is that it clearly shows that there is a 13 election year cycle coming into play in 2020 for a strong 3rd Party Showing. In 1912, there was a 30% vote for a 3rd party. Then in 1968, there was a 13% vote for a 3rd party. Since the last 3rd party took 19% in 1992 and 10% in 1996, a 3rd party this time could match or exceed 19% in 2020.
We already have the former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz talking about that he may run in 2020 but as an Independent. As crazy as that may sound to those wrapped up in party politics, our model is showing that this is the trend.
That Fox Poll is most interesting. It said that 46% of Republicans identified with Trump rather than the Republican Party. The implications of this are significant. It is not that Trump is some fantastic person, but that people are beginning to identify with candidates instead of parties. This is confirming what our computer is forecasting. The rise of a 3rd party is ripe for the taking. More and more people will vote for a person rather than a party.
The generation of Roosevelt is gone. There is really no adult from the Great Depression still alive today. Therefore, despite the critical emails I get, this is never about my opinion. The numbers are the numbers as is time. This has NOTHING to do with who I would vote for. Quite frankly, I do not see either party as doing anything to save the nation no less the world from the shift in power our computer is forecasting.
According to the DOJ announcement released today three companies: Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., Huawei Device USA Inc. and Skycom Tech Co. Ltd. are charged with bank fraud and conspiracy to commit bank fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and conspiracy to violate IEEPA, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. Huawei and Huawei USA are charged with conspiracy to obstruct justice related to the grand jury investigation in the Eastern District of New York.
Additionally Ms. Meng Wanzhou is charged with bank fraud, wire fraud, and conspiracies to commit bank and wire fraud. Acting U.S. Attorney General Matthew G. Whitaker, Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Secretary Wilbur Ross of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Attorney Richard P. Donoghue for the Eastern District of New York, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division and Assistant Attorney General John C. Demers of the National Security Division, announced the charges:
Keep in mind that China has loaned Venezuela over $50 billion in the past five years. In exchange, Venezuela gave China a 49% stake in PDVSA. Venezuela makes payments on the loans via oil shipments to China.
(VIA U.S. Treasury Dept) Today the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA) pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13850 for operating in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy. PdVSA is a Venezuelan state-owned oil company and a primary source of Venezuela’s income and foreign currency, to include U.S. dollars and Euros.
“The United States is holding accountable those responsible for Venezuela’s tragic decline, and will continue to use the full suite of its diplomatic and economic tools to support Interim President Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly, and the Venezuelan people’s efforts to restore their democracy,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin.
“Today’s designation of PdVSA will help prevent further diverting of Venezuela’s assets by Maduro and preserve these assets for the people of Venezuela. The path to sanctions relief for PdVSA is through the expeditious transfer of control to the Interim President or a subsequent, democratically elected government.”
As with previous OFAC designations of certain Venezuelan officials and their supporters, U.S. sanctions need not be permanent. Sanctions are intended to change behavior. The United States has made it clear that we will consider lifting sanctions for those who take concrete, meaningful, and verifiable actions to support democratic order and combat corruption in Venezuela, including PdVSA.
As Venezuela’s state owned oil company, PdVSA has long been a vehicle for corruption. A variety of schemes have been designed to embezzle billions of dollars from PdVSA for the personal gain of corrupt Venezuelan officials and businessmen. For example, a 2014 currency exchange scheme was designed to embezzle and launder around $600 million from PdVSA, money obtained through bribery and fraud. By May 2015, the conspiracy had allegedly doubled in amount, to $1.2 billion embezzled from PdVSA.
Abraham Edgardo Ortega, a Venezuelan national who was PdVSA’s executive director of financial planning, pled guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering for his role in the billion-dollar international scheme to launder funds embezzled from PdVSA.
In a separate case, U.S. prosecutors have alleged that, from 2011 to 2013, senior Government of Venezuela and PdVSA officials, including Nervis Villalobos, the former Venezuelan vice minister of energy; Rafael Reiter, who worked as PdVSA’s head of security and loss prevention; and Luis Carlos de Leon, a former official at a state-run electric company, sought bribes and kickbacks from vendors in exchange for helping them secure PdVSA contracts and gain priority over other vendors for outstanding invoices during its liquidity crisis.
Today’s action designating PdVSA follows a determination by Secretary Mnuchin pursuant to E.O. 13850 that persons operating in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy may be subject to sanctions.
Concurrent with this action, OFAC is issuing general licenses that authorize certain transactions and activities related to PdVSA and its subsidiaries within specified timeframes.
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of PdVSA subject to U.S. jurisdiction are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. (link)
8:15 p.m. – AP – The Mexican government says it disagrees with a map displayed by the White House that shows Mexico among those countries that support Venezuela’s embattled president, Nicolas Maduro.
National security adviser John Bolton held a press briefing Monday with a map that showed in red the countries supporting Maduro and in blue those nations supporting the Venezuelan congress leader Juan Guaido, who has declared himself Venezuela’s interim president.
Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. told reporters in Washington that her government isn’t taking sides in the crisis.
In Ambassador Martha Barcena’s words: “We are not against the U.S. regarding the position on Venezuela. We are not siding with Maduro. We are not siding with Guaido. We think a third way of a peaceful solution can be found.” (read more)
Internal polling and fear of resistance backlash must be significant for the democrats. President Donald Trump accepted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s invitation to deliver his State of the Union speech on Feb. 5, a week later than originally scheduled.
White House Director of Strategic Communications appears on Fox News to discuss the ongoing appropriations discussion, and the White House position on border security to avoid another shutdown in three weeks.
Investigative reporter Chris Ramirez reported on the security crisis and crime on the southern border in New Mexico. He speaks with New Mexico border residents about the security challenges on the border, with one resident noting, “we have a crisis down here.” The report ran on the local New Mexico NBC news station KOB 4. Watch:
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President Trump drew attention to this report moments ago on Twitter:
It is a rather incredulous dynamic where President Trump is fighting to secure the southern border, while the Democrat speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, coordinates resistance bribes from Mexican cartels to stop him. I digress…
In this segment from Fox News Sunday, acting Chief-of-Staff Mick Mulvaney discusses the issues around trying to get funding for U.S. border security and the possibility of another government shutdown.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo holds a press conference on the crisis in Venezuela, and introduces Elliot Abrams as the primary U.S. liaison and point-of-contact for the Venezuela Democracy Initiative.
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[Transcript] SECRETARY POMPEO: Good afternoon, everyone. Today I am incredibly excited to announce that a seasoned, principled, and tough-minded foreign policy veteran is joining our State Department team. Elliott Abrams is coming aboard to lead our efforts on Venezuela.
His critical work will get started right away. Tomorrow, he will travel with me to the UN Security Council, where the United States has called a long overdue meeting to urge other nations to support Venezuela’s democratic transition.
Elliott’s long career in foreign affairs includes a great deal of time as a senior leader in this very organization. Under President Reagan, he served as assistant secretary of state for human rights and humanitarian affairs and assistant secretary for inter-American affairs as well.
Under President George W. Bush, he served on the National Security Council as the senior director for democracy, human rights, and international affairs; senior director for North African and Near East affairs; and deputy national security adviser for global democracy strategy.
Elliott’s passion for the rights and liberties of all peoples makes him a perfect fit and a valuable and timely addition. This week, the Venezuelan people have rejected former President Maduro’s illegitimate rule. Consistent with Venezuela’s constitution, and with the support of the Venezuelan people and the National Assembly, Juan Guaido has declared himself the interim president of Venezuela.
These are just the first steps on Venezuela’s road to liberty. Elliott will be a true asset to our mission to help the Venezuelan people fully restore democracy and prosperity to their country.
On this issue and all others, he is eager to advance President Trump’s agenda and promote the ideals and interests of the American people.
And now Elliott would like to say a few words.
MR ABRAMS: Thank you. Very briefly, I left this building 30 years ago this week, last time I worked here. So it’s very nice to be back. This crisis in Venezuela is deep and difficult and dangerous, and I can’t wait to get to work on it. Thank you.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Thanks.
MR PALLADINO: All right, guys, we’ve got time for a question or two. Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg, please.
QUESTION: Mr. Secretary.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Yes, sir.
QUESTION: Can you talk a little bit – in a little bit more detail about what Mr. Abrams will be doing, what will his first task be, what will his chief focus be, will he travel to the region? And also, can you talk a little bit about some of the – what will happen to Venezuela’s overseas assets? For example, the gold that it has in the Bank of England, money it has in overseas accounts – will the expectation be that the interim president would have control over those funds?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Well, as to your first question, Elliott will have responsibility for all things related to our efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela. It’s a global challenge. There are multiple dimensions to how we hope to assist the Venezuelans in achieving democracy there, and he will be responsible for leading that effort.
We have an enormous team here that’s done truly remarkable work to date to get us to the point we are at today, and they’ve done this over certainly my eight months, but long preceding that as well. I’m incredibly proud of the work that our State Department team has done to date. Elliott will now lead our effort that relates directly to our efforts on behalf of the Venezuelan people.
I would expect, though, that his first task will be to get up to speed and then travel with me to New York tomorrow morning for the UN Security Council meeting. And after that, I couldn’t tell you where it will take him. Wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up traveling to the region, but what – the road ahead will be driven by the demands of the Venezuelan people and how we can assist them in achieving the outcome that America wants them to achieve.
QUESTION: And on the overseas assets?
SECRETARY POMPEO: On the overseas assets, we’ll have announcements from other places later today talking about how it is that we anticipate the interim President Juan Guaido will have the resources he needs to lead the Government of Venezuela forward.
MR PALLADINO: Let’s take a question from South America, so NTN. Gustau, please.
QUESTION: NTN 24, Gustau Alegret. Among the countries that has not recognized Juan Guaido as president are Mexico and Uruguay, and both countries has offered their diplomacies in order to help in the crisis. Is the U.S. thinking to work with them, or is the U.S. asking them to recognize Guaido? What’s the position of the State Department with these two countries?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Well, we think every country ought to recognize the constitutional leader of Venezuela, and that’s who the United States has concluded Juan Guaido is, the interim president of Venezuela. We think every country ought to recognize the Venezuelan constitution, the demands of the Venezuelan people.
So whether it is Mexico or Uruguay or any other country, we hope to work with them to achieve the sense that we can ultimately have a free and fair election in Venezuela, where the voices of the Venezuelan people who, under the Maduro regime, have been starved. Enormous medical and humanitarian situation in Colombia, more than a million refugees have fled the horrors of the Maduro regime. We’ll work with all nations to try and achieve that outcome. We think every country ought to take steps towards achieving that, and not side with this cruel dictator in Venezuela who has caused so much devastation for the people of Venezuela.
MR PALLADINO: Wrap it up, sir?
SECRETARY POMPEO: I think one more.
MR PALLADINO: Let’s go to Washington Post. Carol Morello.
QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, I think a lot of people are concerned about the diplomats who are down there. Would you tell us what you’re prepared to do if tomorrow, when the 72-hour deadline passes, they – the Venezuelans cut off electricity and water, maybe even surround the building, or even try to go in to bring out the diplomats by force? Could you be specific about what you are prepared to do in the event of any of these scenarios? And how can you assure people that they are protected?
SECRETARY POMPEO: I appreciate that question. There’s been no activity that’s taken more of our time over the past days than ensuring the protection of all those folks that are under our chief of mission authority there in Venezuela. We’re working diligently to make sure that they are protected. There’s no higher priority for the Secretary of State, and you should know no higher priority for the President of the United States. We have discussed this at some length.
With respect to the way we will deliver that, we’ve made clear to everyone that it is our expectation that the U.S. officials that are there, that have now been invited to be there by interim President Juan Guaido have a right, they have the privileges and immunities that accrue to having been invited to be there by the duly credentialed leader of Venezuela, and we have every expectation that those rights will continue to be protected.
You would have seen today that we have ordered a – have an ordered departure. We’re beginning to move some of our staff out. This is consistent with what the State Department does every day. The first briefing I get every morning is all around the world, every mission, every consulate, every facility where we have officers, I receive a briefing on risk and risk analysis. We’ll continue to do that in Venezuela. It is literally a 24/7, moment-by-moment exercise to evaluate risk to the people who work for me in the State Department, and we’ll get this right. We will make sure that we protect our folks on the ground and take all appropriate measures to ensure that they’re protected.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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