Re-Posted May 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; I find it really amazing how your computer picked Ukraine, then Syria, and then you said in an interview that you regard Korea as the most dangerous of the three. Is this all cyclical based?
Looking forward to Hong Kong
ANSWER: Yes. We feed all information into the system that is both economic and social or more specifically war/civil unrest. When you correlate everything into the Economic Confidence Model, it becomes clear that war and civil unrest emerge only from an economic downturn. The only exception is the conquest model from the theory of empire building. We are not “imperialistic” today as was the case during the 19th century. The US model moved from conquest to puppet vassal states – national building rather than occupying.
The Marco Polo Incident took place on July 7th, 1937 (1937.515), and is regarded as the beginning of the Sino-Japanese War, which became World War II in the Pacific venue. If we look at this from Japan’s perspective, the peak of that 51.6 year wave picked the high in the Japanese economy and confidence in the Japanese government – 1989.115. If we add 72 years to the 1937.515 target, we come to 2009.515. Adding the War Cycle, this brought us to 2012.605. This lined up with the change in trend for the dollar/yen. The yen peak against the dollar was 2011. Successful launch of the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 Unit 2 satellite aboard a three stage rocket (December 12, 2012) was in line with the War Cycle turning up 2012.605 with regard to Asia. So far, everything is in sync.
In the conflict with North Korea cannot be solved with posturing or some show of force. The only way to deal with them is to open direct talks. This nonsense of refusing to talk to North Korea until they comply is like kids in a schoolyard. Trump did say in his Reuters interview that the diplomatic efforts could ultimately fail. “There is a possibility that we will end up with a great, big conflict with North Korea.” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has called for stricter sanctions against the communist country. However, this has never worked and only provokes rocket and nuclear tests as a show of defiance and strength.
North Korea cannot reach California yet. The real danger of a North Korean nuclear attack is on Seoul or Tokyo. Keep in mind that this would be a desperate act most likely provoked by a domestic rise in civil unrest. If there is a fear that control will be lost, then an external enemy is needed to retain power. We should be more concerned about internal events right now. As long as his power is not threatened internally, then such an attack would not make sense. He does not have an arsenal of weapon to keep up a war. Beware of internal events – they are often the issue the drives madmen to act in desperation.