The assertion that carbon dioxide is a “pollutant” has been the centerpiece of public policy on climate for the developed world in recent years.
Demonizing CO2 has impacted virtually every aspect of modern Western civilization. It condemns the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, the use of combustion engines for transportation, and the employment of carbon fuels for virtually everything supporting modern civilization – even down to the kind of washing machines and kitchen stoves that are deemed acceptable. It forms the basis for the most grotesque of all the alarmist shibboleths – the “social cost of carbon”.
The theory that CO2 is malevolent was enshrined in the so-called “Endangerment Finding” issued by the Environmental Protection Agency in 2009, which held that carbon dioxide is a “pollutant” that “threatens public health and safety”.
CO2 radicalism rests on one main assumption – that increases in atmospheric CO2 will cause a linear and dangerous increase in global temperature. The belief that more CO2 emitted equals significantly more heat and higher temperature is a cornerstone of the ruling scientific paradigm.
But what if this assumption – the most ubiquitous of all modern conventional wisdoms – turns out to be mistaken?
This conventional wisdom has been questioned over the last decade by impeccably credentialed scientists who have undertaken actual science – not political science – to contradict this primary assumption underlying the AGW belief system.
Case in point is the peer-reviewed analysis completed in June, 2020 by eminent physicists William Happer and William van Wijngaarden. Mr. Happer is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University and van Wijngaarden is a professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at York University in Toronto, Both men are accomplished and renowned physicists with over 500 published papers to their credit. Mr. Happer is best known as the brilliant scientist whose insight into the physics of the atmosphere empowered the success of the Strategic Defense Initiative.
They applied highly detailed mathematical analytics to the physics of CO2 in the atmosphere and raised serious doubts about CO2’s ability to absorb heat after becoming “saturated” at current levels of 400 parts per million, and therefore unable to absorb significanty more heat from the Sun. Thus, any further increases in atmospheric CO2 – even doubling that amount to 800 parts per million – would only result in minimal increases in atmospheric temperature of 0.5C, or 1degree Fahrenheit.
This mathematically rigorous finding was validated through a controlled laboratory experiment conducted by a team of seven Viennese researchers in 2024. They measured the back infrared radiation of CO2 in a test chamber with increasing CO2 concentrations emulating realistic atmospheric conditions. They concluded that doubling CO2 from pre-industrial levels from 400 to 800 ppm “shows no measurable increase in infrared radiation absorption, and thus can lead to just 0.5C warming increase at most”.
This conclusion illustrates the reason why climate alarmists have never been able to explain the reason why the Earth has never experienced runaway warming in the past when CO2 levels were 5-10 times more concentrated than today, nor why the UN climate models based on linear warming theory have been proven to be so terribly wrong.
If the CO2 concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere is well beyond the level where increases are causing additional radiation to be absorbed, then all the government policies intended to reduce or eliminate CO2 emissions in order to stop climate change are just as effective as King Canute’s efforts to control the tides.
In short, these saturation analyses thoroughly refute the conventional wisdom that increasing levels of CO2 will cause catastrophic global warming.
And they are not alone.
For example, in 2020 German chemist Michael Schnell published his study “Experimental Verification of the CO2 Greenhouse Effect” which also confirmed that the saturation effect of CO2 results in minimal warming. In addition, Franz-Karl Reinhardt, a professor with the leading Swiss research facility EPF, undertook another study in 2017 which demonstrated that a doubling of the current level of atmospheric CO2 from 400ppm to 800ppm would produce only be one quarter of 1 degree Celsius – too small to even be accurately measured.
The impact of all these recent studies – and there are many more than just the ones mentioned above – is clear: the conventional wisdom regarding CO2 warming is unraveling. The demonization of CO2 – one of the greatest popular delusions in modern human history – may finally be coming to an end.
It may well not be not true that an increase in CO2 causes a linear and catastrophic increase in atmospheric temperature.
The implication of CO2 saturation is a game changer, and should provide the Trump Administration with a substantial line of questioning of EPA’s Endangerment Finding.
Remember all that alarmist guff about Antarctica sea ice recording lower levels in winter a couple of years ago? Georgina Rannard of the BBC wrote a story headed ‘Antarctic sea ice at “mind-blowing” low alarms experts‘, while Clive Cookson at the Financial Times gave us his suggestion that the area “faces a catastrophic cascade of extreme environmental events… that will affect the climate around the world”. The scare story caravan has moved on to pastures new these days, not unrelated to the fact that at the end of 2024 the extent of sea ice in Antarctica was roughly the same as the 1981 to 2010 average. According to the U.S.-based National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), “this provides a sharp illustration of the high variability of Antarctica sea ice extent”. It does indeed, and it also provides us with a classic case study of how a short-term natural variation, well understood by many scientists, is weaponised by activists in science, politics and journalism to induce mass climate psychosis with the aim of promoting the political Net Zero lunacy.
The less hysterical NSIDC would appear to be the same NSIDC that published a paper updated as recently as last July asking, “has Antarctic sea ice hit a breaking point?”. As the Daily Sceptic has reported in the past, Antarctica has been a bit of a disappointment to the climate cry-baby crowd since it has shown little warming for at least 70 years. “Now scientists are eager to know if climate change has finally caught up with Antarctica sea ice,” notes the NSIDC paper. Helpful as ever in the mission of preaching climate Armageddon, Rannard of the BBC provides us with an “experts say” quote: “Without its ice cooling the planet, Antarctica could transform from Earth’s refrigerator to a radiator.”
Interestingly, the second author on the Rannard story was ‘data’ specialist Becky Dale who subsequently enrolled for the six-month sabbatical run by the Green Blob-funded Oxford Climate Journalism Network. This is a crash course in climate catastrophisation reporting. Previous participants have been asked to write about how fruits such as mangos are less tasty than in the past due to climate change. A recent speaker has called for “fines and imprisonment” for those expressing scepticism about “well supported” science.
The ’mind-blowing’ quote that made headlines around the world has been attributed to Dr. Walter Meier of the NSIDC. Dr Meier, reported Rannard and Dale, “is not optimistic that the sea ice will recover to a significant degree”. At the height of the scare, Meier claimed the 2023 winter dip was far outside anything we’ve seen. Again as we have reported in the Daily Sceptic, Dr. Meier seems a tad forgetful of the past work he has done on the obvious cyclical nature of Antarctica sea ice. Ten years earlier, Meier was part of a science team that unlocked the secrets of early Nimbus satellite photographs. These revealed significant Antarctica sea ice variability in the 1960s including a high in 1964, not seen again until 2014, and a low in 1966, similar to the recent dip. At the time, Meier commented that extreme ice highs and lows “are not that unusual”.
During November and December 2024, mid to late spring in the Southern Hemisphere, the daily Antarctica sea ice loss was 140,000 square kilometres compared to 165,000 sq kms for the 1981-2010 average. By the end of December the sea ice extent was roughly around the average recorded in the 30 years to 2010. Now it seems the NSIDC is a re-convert to stressing long-term trends, noting that the 2016-2024 timeline “is too short to definitely determine that a regime shift has occurred”.
Perhaps the NSIDC ought to mark the card of the British Antarctica Survey (BAS) team, who as late as May last year issued a press release claiming that the 2023 lows would be a one in 2,000 year event without climate change. Needless to say, this scaremongering twaddle was the product of a computer model. The model told the BAS that such “evidence” adds to existing observational evidence “that the last few years’ low sea ice could signal a lasting regime shift in the Southern Ocean”. More BS than BAS, the uncharitable might conclude.
Needless to say, the recent cyclical recovery in Antarctica sea ice has been ignored by mainstream media. It’s been a bad period for alarmists, coming so soon after years of record growth of coral on the Great Barrier Reef put an end to yet another profitable supply of constant alarums. Thankfully the BBC finds ever more obscure ways to keep the fast-fading Net Zero fantasy alive. Perhaps not as headline-grabbing as ice and coral, but it appears that a bumble bee has been sighted recently in Scotland. It was claimed that critters were “nest building” and this was due to climate change. Britannica does not find such a sighting very surprising, noting that in winter when the temperature outside rises above 10°C, bees will leave the hive momentarily to relieve themselves of waste. Possibly with a cheery wave and a “back in three, going for a wee”.
All of the confusion – designed to constantly promote Net Zero – arises because narrative-driven commentators assign most weather and climate changes to humans adding trace amounts of a trace gas into the atmosphere. It leaves little room for explaining the role of natural variation in the changing climate. Antarctica has not warmed for at least 70 years and a recent paper found that the summer temperature had shown a dramatic 1°C fall from 1977-1999, followed by a pause since the turn of the century. Another paper found that Antarctica sea ice extent had slowly increased since the start of continuous satellite recordings in 1979.
This case study of the recent hyped sea ice alarm in Antarctica shows how the scientific process is torn up and ridiculous claims, often produced by computer models, are made on the flimsiest of short-term evidence and observation. Lectures on disregarding short-term variations only resume when normal, and often cyclical, trends reappear and follow inconvenient directions.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’sEnvironment Editor.
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I hope you come to Dubai for a conference next year. After your Syrian forecast that the civil war would end only 13 years from the start in 2011, those of us here are still in shock and awe, as you say there in the States. I know your models have considered the cycles in Syria from Roman times. Is 2027 still the target in the Middle East?
BAF
ANSWER: Syria has a very long history. Antioch was the link to the Silk Road for all the dies and spices from Asia. As you can see, it is sandwiched between Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. Historically, it has also been known as the Levant and a strategic chess piece in the global war of geopolitics. The Seleucid Empire was a Greek state in West Asia during the Hellenistic period. It was founded in 312BC by the Macedonian general Seleucus I Nikator (312-281BC) when the Macedonian Empire founded by Alexander the Great was divided after his death among his generals.
Thus, this became known as the Seleucid dynasty until its annexation by the Roman Republic under Pompey in 63 BC, who conquered the region, transforming Syria into a Roman province. This has lent Syria the opportunity to provide a rich database extending centuries for computer analysis. First, you must acknowledge that laws are always silent during war and civil unrest. They are the decorations of civilization and only apply when there is civil discord – not war and upheaval.
The first Syrian to become a Roman Emperor was Elagabalus (218-222AD). This is always the same pattern of the conquered/slave eventually becoming king. Some pointed that out when Obama became President. This is a mere fact of history. The king is dead – long live the king. Another fact of history is when there is a civil uprising, the king may fall, but the victor quickly assumes the same policies as those he vanquished.
The English Civil War tore down the rule of law, and here you see Oliver Cromwell quickly issued coinage styled as the very king he had beheaded for daring to defend against him in the civil war. He put King Charles on trial, found him guilty for losing the civil war, and then beheaded him.
Civil Wars tend to last 4.3 years (American Civil War), 8.6 years (English Civil War), and even 13 years (Cambodian Civil War, 1967-1975). However, go beyond that 8.6-year period, and it will extend to 13 years.
Countless times when there have been civil wars, you find the head of state when captured, is often executed. This seems to be standard. When they are dead, they will routinely topple their statues as they did throughout Eastern Europe, toppling the statues of Lenin.
Civil Wars always invoke deep hatred, and when leaders are not executed, what you find is often assassinations of the victor. They assassinated Julius Caesar after he won the civil war. These are cyclical patterns that routinely take place. There was an attempted assassination of Zelensky, and he fired his head of security because it was Ukrainians – not Russians. There was a similar attempted assassination of Hitler.
Assad is wise to flee with his family to Russia, for they would have all been executed just as the Russian Revolution executed the entire family of the Czar. People who engaged in civil wars and/or revolutions always responded the same way, no matter what culture or nation was involved. The Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi also fled Iran in 1978 during that revolution. These things may appear to be a shock, but they are standard in the playbook of geopolitics.
I have previously warned that Turkey has the largest army in the Middle East, and Erdogan praised the Hamas attack because he dreams of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire and he sees himself as the leader. They are mortal enemies of Greece and that goes back to the fall of the Byzantine Empire. Turkey has funded these rebels, and that became possible only because Israel destroyed Hezbollah. On the one hand, you have the US cheering Al-Qaeda all because the Neocons have been trying for years to overthrow all three dictators they created in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. Now, they can get the pipeline from Qutar to cut off Russia’s energy sales to Europe. So this is all about Russia, Russia, Russia. Meanwhile, they are so fixated on conquering Russia that they have ignored the real threat in the Middle East of the resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.
I will update the prospects for war in the Middle East and the power vacuum that is unfolding that is hidden behind the headlines. Most people have no idea that it was the West that created all of these arab states. They were never independent nation-states. With World War I, the West finally took down the Ottoman Empire. This was when the Sykes-Picot Agreement was established as a 1916 secret treaty between the United Kingdom and France, with the consent of Russia, Italy, and the United States. They were carving up the Ottoman Empire, which they mutually agreed to establish spheres of influence, thereby partitioning the Ottoman Empire. Syria was created, and the rule of Assad was in the economic interests of the West.
I have been asked why I do not write much about the Israeli war and offer a solution. There is NONE!!!! This is a religious war, and a ceasefire will only be temporary. Israel’s enemies is not limited to Iran. It also includes Turkey as we move forward in time.
We will publish an update on the geopolitical future of the Middle East for the Arab world and Israel. This will be released in January.
Posted originally on Dec 2, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Dear Martin,
I listened to Joe Rogan’s podcast interview w/Marc Andreessen where Marc reported that the Biden administration has been secretly meeting with AI companies. Their message: “Don’t even bother starting AI companies. There will only be 2-3 approved companies, and we’ll control them completely.”
It made me think of you and your ordeal, so many years ago.
Thank you for being on the right side of history.
Happy belated Thanksgiving ?
warmly, RH
COMMENT #2: Wikipedia is a vile organization that is controlled by the Deep State when it has anything to do with politics, including health. I was there in Amsterdam the night of your film showing when those of us in the financial and banking community were invited. I remember well when the moderator asked you if you got to keep the claimed missing $1 billion, and you turned to the audience and asked if it was possible that $1 billion could be removed from a bank, but nobody knew where it was. The audience burst out in laughter. What these people did to you on not just a false charge but on a charge that was impossible, and organizations like Wikipedia will never report the truth is a warning to us all.
Thank you for your courage. I do not know many who could have survived what they put you through, from torture to attempting to kill you.
GVB
COMMENT #3 What the Biden administration did with dictating to social media over COVID was a clear warning to us all that even Wikipedia is a tool to manipulate society. What they did to you refusing to report that the bank is the one that pleaded guilty and had to repay all your clients demonstrates that Wikipedia is propaganda. We can no longer trust mainstream media; every social media aspect has been corrupted. This is why individual podcasts are becoming popular. If you believe Wikipedia on anything political, you cannot possibly have a functioning brain. They have become the symbol of the decline of our society.
Gerry
REPLY: There is no question that those in power want to control AI and ensure it only puts out their propaganda. OMG, you ask it a question, and it tells the truth? That is just unacceptable. We are no different from the old USSR. That was Lenin’s view – control the press, and you can manipulate society. He has been proven correct time and time again. We are just a herd of sheep being led to the slaughter.
The computer I created and named Socrates has forecast every significant financial crisis and geopolitical event, including war. When the CIA wanted me to build the model for them in 1998 after it forecasted the collapse of Russia, I offered to run any study they wanted, but I was told they had to own it. I understand that was their view from a national security perspective, and nobody else should have that information. At the end of the day, I realize my refusal to turn over the source code has placed a target on my back. So be it. I didn’t realize developing AI would become a risk in a free society.
Not only did I stand up at our World Economic Conference in December 2011, held in Philadelphia, and forecast that war would begin in 2014, but I even put on the blog in 2013 that the place it would begin was Ukraine – the country to watch.
In June 1998, we held our World Economic Conference in London. Little did I know that a journalist from the London Financial Times was there and put our forecast that Russia would collapse on the front page in the weeks ahead. That appeared in the FT on June 27th, 1998. When that happened, the bankers blamed me, claiming I had too much influence, and instructed the CFTC to shut us down.
The computer had forecast Russia’s collapse, manifested in the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis in September 1998. That compelled the Federal Reserve to bail out the bankers and even a hedge fund since they were all on the same trade. They expected a never-ending 30%+ return on Russian debt (GKO) supported by the IMF. Still, the Economic Confidence Model had also projected the very day of the high years in advance for the stock market would be July 20th, 1998. Even the 911 attack took place precisely on the Pi Target during that wave, and the Dow Jones then bottomed precisely in 2002 on the very day of the end of that wave. All of those forecasts came true, and the bankers were just trying for the guaranteed trades, bribing the IMF and people in various governments, never risking a dime from their view.
Let me explain something. To even do the movie on me, The Forecaster, also available on DVD, they had to be insured against slander, etc. Lloyds of London insured the film, and to do so, we had to prove that they wanted the computer code since that was NEVER publicly stated in the case openly. A client offered to rent the Institute to keep the forecasts going. I have been told that the bankers instructed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to shut down our forecasting because they would always lose. Even in the film, one employee said he did his due diligence on my firm with Goldman Sachs before taking a job. He stated in the film that Goldman Sachs always thought they could crush me, but I usually won.
I was asked to invest $10 billion into Hermitage Capital Management to take over Russia. They blackmailed Yeltsin owner a $7 billion money laundering scam to step down and they were going to install Boris Berezovsky as the new President of Russia. All the gold in Russia would go through the Republic National Bank in New York, and I was told I would get $100 billion back as my return. I refused. I was not into regime change.
That blackmail took place in June 1999, and they ran to the government claiming $1 billion was missing, and they had no idea where it was. The prosecutors were so stupid and never asked how someone gets $1 billion out of a bank with no trace. But why let reality stand in the way of a good prosecution in New York City, as Trump discovered?
Then, they appointed Alan Cohen receiver to run my company, which Goldman Sachs then hired. They ran Princeton Economics from the boardroom of Goldman Sachs. You object to this conflict of interest and are told to shut up. Trump discovered how a prosecutor is then raised to an “acting” judge who gets his case and Bannon. What luck from a random assignment.
Posted originally on the CTH on November 19, 2024 | Sundance
For very obvious reasons I don’t believe them. However, that said, take an elevated position on the issue for a moment and ask yourself, ‘what are the implications if the United States Pentagon are fabricating claims about North Korean troops on the ground in Kursk, Russia?’
The United States Defense Department asserted today that DPRK troops are on the ground in the Kursk region. Actual North Korean troops on the battlefield fighting against Ukraine. Has anyone seen any single physical attributable example, a picture, a photograph, a video, a satellite image, a drone video, a declassified field report; heck, anything – anything at all – to support such a claim?
.
This claim, and the total lack of evidence for it, is really nuts if you think about it.
Where are the journalists who look at these officials and say, “prove it.” I mean, the path we are traveling ends in a very dark place for the U.S-NATO and Russia. Shouldn’t someone, anyone, ask some very pointed questions? Where the heck is Biden?
New York Times – Early this morning, Ukraine’s military launched a volley of American-made ballistic missiles into Russia for the first time. The attack came on the 1,000th day of the war and less than a week after President Biden gave the Ukrainians permission to do so in a major shift of American policy.
The strike targeted an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of southwestern Russia, causing explosions, Ukrainian officials said. Russian officials claimed to have shot down five of the six missiles. The use of long-range American weapons was a show of force that demonstrated how continued Western support could help Ukraine more easily degrade Russian forces.
The pre-dawn attack struck an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of southwestern Russia, Ukrainian officials said. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said that Kyiv used six ballistic missiles known as ATACMS, for Army Tactical Missile System. A senior American official and a senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing operations, confirmed that ATACMS were used.
The strike represented a demonstration of force for Ukraine as it tries to show Western allies that providing more powerful and sophisticated weapons will pay off — by degrading Russia’s combat capabilities and relieving pressure on Kyiv’s overstretched forces.
The attack came on the same day President Vladimir Putin lowered Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. He declared that Russia could use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is threatened, even against a nonnuclear state so long as that state is backed by a nuclear power — similar to the situation in Ukraine. The timing of the long-planned move was clearly meant to send a message to Europe and the U.S.
The White House said it had observed “no changes to Russia’s nuclear posture” and played down Putin’s new doctrine. The reaction was telling, my colleague David Sanger wrote. Over nearly three years, the war in Ukraine has inured Washington and the world to the renewed use of nuclear weapons as the ultimate bargaining chip. (read more)
Posted originally on the CTH on November 19, 2024 | Sundance
President Trump flew to Texas to attend the 6th launch of the massive SpaceX Starship 6th flight. The target launch time is 4:00pm CT / 5:00pm ET Livestream Links Below:
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 