Germany to Separate North v South by 2030


QUESTION:

Martin,

Following the recent State elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia which reflected voter disillusionment and discontent with the CDU and SPD how do you view the German political scene to the 2021 Federal election?

JR

REPLY: Bavaria came into existence in 1806 when Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire. It was at this time that Bavaria’s land area was greatly expanded. Our cyclical model on Bavaria suggests that it will separate from northern Germany by 2030. This will be inspired by the austerity policies that have devastated the local economy. However, this will only be augmented by the difference in religion between Protestant v Catholic. That was also a factor in why Bavaria joined with Austria, which was also Catholic, in the Austro-Prussian War that resulted in Bavaria’s defeat in 1866. Bavaria had to cede several Lower Franconian districts to Prussia.

The Bavarian conservative party, the CSU, lost its absolute majority once the Economic Confidence Model turned in 2017 during the subsequent election in 2018. Meanwhile, the Greens emerged as the second-largest political force in southern Germany. Additionally, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is impacting the municipal level and the austerity policies imposed by the north continue to brew civil discontent. The loss of the CSU in Germany undermined the survivability of Merkel which instigated her demise.

The civil unrest will turn upward sharply when this current wave concludes 2021.32. The eventual separation of Germany will most likely unfold by 2030 at the earliest.

The Coming British Elections


QUESTION: I know you were rather close to Sir Alan and Prime Minister Thatcher. I also know you are close to a number of politicians here in Britain. I was at your Edinburgh conference where they introduced you as a seventh-generation Edinburgh Scotsman I found very interesting rather than an American. You are famous here in political circles for many forecasts with the latest being the BREXIT victory. Do you have any insight into the December election? It is getting crazy here with two former Labour MPs declaring that they planned to vote for the Conservative Party because they said Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was unfit to be prime minister. Then Tom Watson quit because of Corbyn’s policies over Brexit and his anti-Semitism. But the Conservatives seem to be less reliable as well. I think Nigel Farage may surprise a lot of people in this election. What does Socrates say?

GB

ANSWER: That is an interesting question. It is hard to map because of such a diverse breakdown in the “other” category. There is no question that Nigel’s party came out on top in the EU general elections. As we can see from the chart at the top, both Labour and the Conservatives are declining and there is a rise in both the Liberal Dems and “other” against the establishment so to speak. This is part of the global trend many outside the USA call the Trump Revolution. They are not referring to something that Trump did himself. Instead, this is a global trend against established political parties everywhere.

My advice to Johnson would be to cut a deal with Nigel’s Brexit Party. There is a trend underway that is bigger than most suspect. I know Nigel has no designs on being Prime Minister. However, fate will determine the roll of the dice. Nigel may end up in a position he did not wish to be in.

We will try to refine the models to do a proper forecast. Keep in mind that the “other” category is due for a strong showing and this will most likely be Nigel’s party. Also keep in mind that his Brexit Party does not hold any seats in Parliament at this time. That will change.

Bolivia’s Ex-President Flees to Mexico


Our model has been accurately forecasting the rise in civil unrest against governmental corruption on a worldwide basis. In Bolivia, ex-President Morales has fled to exile in Mexico. Previously, he was overthrown by the military under the pretext of electoral fraud. The country is drifting into political chaos. Bolivia happens to be home to the state-owned lithium industry, which is critical to driving electrical power by the global warming crowd. Bolivia has had a history of revolutions since 1781. The previous was 1949.

British Labour Party – The Greatest Threat to Britain


There is absolutely no question that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party poses a greatest threat to Britain than Brexit. Corbyn said, “Nurses, teachers, shop workers, builders, just about everyone is finding it harder to get by, while Morgan Stanley’s CEO paid himself £21.5m last year and UK banks paid out £15bn in bonuses.” What he fails to consider is that the solution is not to raise taxes on CEOs, the solution is to reduce government. Even if they seized 100% of CEO salaries, it would not pay the expenses for a single day. But they love to point to some individual rich person and make it sound like all will be well if they just seize his money.

Socialism is dead. Before income taxes pre-World War II, the wife could stay home and raise the children. Today, that is not a possibility for most people. It takes two salaries to pay for the very same living standard pre-World War II. The more government pretends to do something, the greater the cost of government becomes. Every time they introduce some new tax, they hire more people and create more regulations for that specific tax. It is simply an endless process where now about 40% of the civil workforce is dependent upon government, which means they do not produce anything that contributes to the GDP of a nation.

Corbyn has boasted that the Labour Party is a threat to the rich. All he will do is send a massive migration from Britain. We have already been getting questions about moving companies and their domicile to the USA, as has been taking place even with major public companies in Canada

Nine American Women and Children Massacred by Mexican Drug Cartel, President Trump Offers U.S. Military Assistance to Mexican Government….


Last month the Mexican government backed-down from a drug cartel in Culiacan, releasing the two sons of drug lord El Chappo after the cartel overwhelmed the Mexican military during an attempted arrest.  The cartel defeated the Mexican military.

Today, three American mothers and six children (4 boys, 2 girls) were brutally murdered in northern Mexico by drug cartels prompting President Trump to offer military assistance to Mexican President Lopez-Obrador in the ongoing struggle against cartel violence.

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MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Gunmen killed nine women and children in the bloodiest attack on Americans in Mexico for years, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to offer to help the neighboring country wipe out drug cartels believed to be behind the ambush.

All nine people killed in Monday’s daytime attack at the border of Chihuahua and Sonora belonged to the Mexican-American LeBaron family, members of a breakaway Mormon community that settled in northern Mexico’s hills and plains decades ago.

A video posted on social media showed the charred and smoking remains of a vehicle riddled with bullet holes that was apparently carrying the victims on a dirt road when the attack occurred.

[…] A relative, Julian LeBaron, called the incident a massacre and said some family members were burned alive.

In a text message to Reuters he wrote that four boys, two girls and three women were killed. Several children who fled the attack were lost for hours in the countryside before being found, he said. He said it was unclear who carried out the attack.

[…] Trump tweeted that he would await a call from Lopez Obrador, urging him to accept U.S. assistance.

Lopez Obrador said he would call Trump on Tuesday about ways to cooperate on security but rejected what he called any foreign government intervention.

“I’ll speak with President Trump to thank him for his support, and to see if in cooperation agreements there’s the possibility of getting help,” he told a news conference. “I don’t think we need the intervention of a foreign government to deal with these cases,” he added.

[…] “War is irrational. We believe in peace,” said Lopez Obrador, a leftist who took office last December. (read more)

It’s starting to look like President Lopez-Obrador is a cartel manager.

Build the wall.