This is interesting… but not simply because of the surface visibility. Yesterday there was an event in Charlotte, North Carolina, that brought together Apple CEO Tim Cook, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Workforce policy advocate Ivanka Trump and U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue (on the margin).
Today, Apple Inc announces a restructuring of their supply chain away from China. In the media report notice the nations that likely stand to gain, and reference Trump’s 2017 golden ticket tour of Asia.
(Reuters) – Apple Inc has asked its major suppliers to assess the cost implications of moving 15%-30% of their production capacity from China to Southeast Asia as it prepares for a restructuring of its supply chain, according to a Nikkei Asian Review report on Wednesday.
Apple’s request was a result of the extended Sino-U.S. trade dispute, but a trade resolution will not lead to a change in the company’s decision, Nikkei said s.nikkei.com/31zCGhw, citing multiple sources.
The iPhone maker has decided the risks of depending heavily on manufacturing in China are too great and even rising, it said.
Earlier this month, credit rating agency Fitch said it views Apple, Dell Technologies Inc and HP Inc as potential blacklist candidates if China blacklists U.S. companies in retaliation for restrictions on Huawei.
The countries being considered include Mexico, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. India and Vietnam are among the favorites for smartphones, Nikkei said, citing sources who did not want to be identified as the discussions are private.
Last week, Foxconn said it had enough capacity outside China to meet Apple’s demand in the American market if the company needed to adjust its production lines, as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap further $300 billion tariffs on Chinese goods. (read more)
In November of 2017, President Trump traveled to a specific set of Asian nations to meet with their leaders in advance of the APEC summit. Included in the individual bilateral discussions (disconnected from APEC) was: Moon Jae-in (S Korea), Shinzo Abe (Japan), Tran Dai Quang (Vietnam), Rodriquo Duterte (Phillipines) and Narenda Modi (India).
Notice the flow… Shinzo Abe, then Moon Jae-In, then meeting with Xi Jinping.
Who are the principals in the DPRK hostage release of Kim Jong Un? Abe, Moon and Xi.
It’s clear that for two-and-a-half years U.S. President Trump has been working on two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon (Kim is hostage to China); and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.
The second phase of the 2017 tour took place after Trump visited China. Additionally, there was a simultaneous shift in language. President Trump began using the term “Indo-Pacific”. The tour continued with extended bilateral trade discussions with Vietnam (Tran Dai Quang), India (Modi), and Philippines (Duterte).
In hindsight the connection and strategy is clear. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the fulcrum for the two objectives: (1) North Korea (denuke via hostage release); and (2) China (global trade rebalance).
There are ASEAN regional economic beneficiaries for #2, breaking the Chinese supply chain and targeting a manufacturing retreat. Namely: Japan, Vietnam, India, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia… and Mexico (think USMCA).
[Additionally, Singapore and Tokyo pick up the financial benefits from worries over Hong Kong. More pressure on Chairman Xi]
Back to yesterday… Tim Cook, Wilbur Ross and Ivanka Trump:
As we noted on Day #1, if we watch how Beijing scripts the messaging we should be able to identify if Chairman Xi Jinping is taking the dragon approach toward his captive Kim Jong Un, or if Xi would instead reshape the geopolitics by announcing his release of Kim as a hostage: The magnanimous panda approach. [Critical BackgroundHEREandHERE]
It looks like we have an answer today as Chairman Xi writes a personal op-ed, published on the front page of North Korea’s state newspaper, where Xi is releasing Kim from proxy province captivity:
…”China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.”…
Yes, though important details are yet to follow, it appears Beijing is acquiescing to the unrelenting pressure from hostage rescuer President Donald Trump and allowing the DPRK to exit the controlled captivity of China. Likely denuclearization will commence.
SEOUL (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping said in an op-ed in North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun on Wednesday that China supports North Korea’s “correct direction” in politically resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.
The front-page op-ed is an honor rarely granted to foreign leaders and comes a day before Xi is set to visit Pyongyang on Thursday and Friday at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, making him the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years.
[…] Xi’s visit kicks off a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity around the Korean Peninsula ahead of the G20 summit in Japan later this month. Xi said the two Asian countries will “strengthen our strategic communication and exchanges,” adding that China will firmly support Kim’s achievements in “socialist construction” aimed at economic development and improving people’s lives, according to the newspaper.
Xi said North Korea and China would expand and develop relations in civilian sectors, including education, culture, sports, tourism, youth and rural areas.
“We will actively contribute to peace, stability, development and prosperity in the region by strengthening communication and coordination with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” Xi said. China will also engage with other stakeholders “by jointly expediting progress on dialogue and negotiations on the issues of the Korean peninsula,” he added. (read more)
We now enter a phase of great nuance and subtle signaling where we will need to carefully evaluate the scale of hostage release. Obviously western media -writ large- are oblivious to the multidimensional hostage dynamic; heck, most major western media don’t even acknowledge that China controls North Korea… So we have a front row seat to review the generally coded signals.
Two days ago (Monday) Beijing announced Chairman Xi and South Korean President Moon Jae-in were scheduled for a bilateral meeting at the G20 (Osaka, Japan – June 28th and 29th). Obviously Xi has a plan to position the best face for his magnanimous panda approach. We also know on the issue of DPRK hostage release, Chairman Xi will need to save face against President Trump very carefully (hence the phone call between Xi and Trump on Tuesday).
One way for Xi to avoid the appearance of acquiescence to Trump would be for Xi, with Beijing approval, to place the optic of victory at the feet of Moon Jae-in. As we noted from the outset the most likely scenario is China positioning themselves as magnanimous panda and South Korea as the beneficiary. Hence the pre-planned G20 meeting.
“Peace is the Prize” ~ Donald Trump
Ultimately, I don’t think President Trump really cares about who gets credit for the victory, hostage release of Chairman Kim, and denuclearization of North Korea. The world will know, though the media will not say, the victory is only because President Trump has outwitted Chairman Xi and his communist regime…. and Trump did that though strategic economic pressure.
For two-and-a-half years U.S. President Trump has been working on two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon (Kim is hostage to China); and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.
Both issues are directly connected to U.S. national security; and both issues are being approached by President Trump through the use of economic leverage to achieve national security results.
In the dynamic of the denuclearization of North Korea, the most likely scenario is Chairman Xi playing the role of magnanimous panda and *guiding* Chairman Kim Jong Un into the world of nations. Hence the op-ed outlined today.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be positioned as the hero so that Xi doesn’t look like he lost Kim to Trump. However, what we don’t know is how much autonomy Chairman Xi will allow Chairman Kim. It’s the “guiding” part we need to watch closely.
Beijing isn’t going to let Kim go fully antonymous and independent; not when they share a border; and certainly not after generations of strategic influence and control over the DPRK as a proxy province and hedge against the West. Unfortunately, South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be useless as a counter wedge against the cunning of Xi Jinping in this very important aspect.
Moon is essentially the Asian Obama; and has about as much strategic intelligence, foresight and usefulness, as a bag-of-rocks being used as a weather vane. Moon is good for the international optics of unification and dancing joyfully etc, but he’s oblivious to how Beijing may infiltrate and influence all things in/around Korea. Ideological naivete’ makes Moon the perfect person for Chairman Xi to work with.
So we need to keep eyes open for the amount of freedom Chairman Xi will give to Chairman Kim; however, simultaneously we can enjoy watching President Trump exploit the shifted dynamic by engaging with Kim as a freed hostage with full independence.
We can expect that President Trump will immediately start engaging with Chairman Kim Jong Un very openly, as if his captivity never existed. That will drive Beijing bananas, as they will not know of possible private influence by Trump. In turn, President Trump will know the engagement with Kim will drive Beijing bananas; and so Trump will take the U.S. engagement to even higher levels of independence just to watch the dragon flare his nostrils. But that’s still a long way from today….
Remember, two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon; and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.
With #1 achieved, President Trump will still intend to get #2. Heck, Trump has spent 30-years openly advocating for the principle of restoring American wealth. That means the economic pressure will continue until Beijing is defeated. If Chairman Xi expects POTUS Trump to retreat from the massive geopolitical leverage he has created, well, it’s doubtful that will happen.
President Trump has threatened more tariffs and more consequential action as it relates to non-tariff barriers, IP protection, forced technology transfers etc as a result of China reneging on their prior agreement. Additionally, President Trump has been openly, albeit with coded messages, telling the world North Korea was already no longer a threat.
The best offer -the most likely offer- from President Trump at the G20, is a return to the original 150-page agreement, constructed by USTR Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He, that Beijing and Chairman Xi walked away from. However, even that offer by President Trump is tenuously optimistic at best, because Trump knows China is on its heels.
President Trump has simply outwitted and outmatched Chairman Xi in this economic confrontation. While Xi thought he was outmaneuvering his rival, it was President Trump who was the one wearing the Panda mask all along.
In hindsight every move since early 2017 including: (1) the warm welcome of Chairman Xi Jinping to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate; (2) the vociferous praise poured upon Xi; (3) the U.N. sanctions where China and Russia agreed; (4) the November 2017 “golden ticket’ tour of Asia; (5) the direct engagement with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un; (6) the strategic relationship with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; and a host of smaller nuanced moves were all quietly building toward this conclusion.
For President Trump to have navigated Chairman Xi into such a position is the pinnacle of strategic success. The Chinese culture doesn’t even have a frame of reference for a position that includes ‘less losing’ as their better option.
World’s Top Bicycle Maker Says the Era of ‘Made in China’ Is Over
Giant Manufacturing Co. saw the writing on the wall early on. The world’s biggest bicycle maker started moving production of U.S.-bound orders out of its China facilities to its home base in Taiwan…
Trade tensions kick Asian business confidence to 10-year low:…
Confidence among Asian companies in the June quarter fell to its lowest since the 2008-09 financial crisis, as a U.S.-China trade war disrupts global supply chains and shows little sign of easing…
During the kick-off campaign rally in Orlando Florida, President Donald Trump delivered a farewell tribute to a “warrior”, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
During the first two years of the administration Sarah Sanders has stood firmly in support of President Trump and fearlessly faced a hostile and ideologically corrupt media. Tonight Trump supporters had the opportunity to say thank you. The crowd delivered a rousing standing ovation while shouting: “Sarah, Sarah, Sarah”…. WATCH:
Donald Trump Jr. delivered a rousing testimonial to the power of MAGAnomic and common sense policy during remarks today in a packed Orlando arena.
In advance of President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence arrival to kick off the 2020 Keep America Great campaign, a ‘chip off the old block‘ Donald Trump Jr. warmed up the audience. ENJOY:
President Trump is launching the 2020 campaign kickoff tonight in Orlando Florida. The venue is the Amway center and President Trump is scheduled to appear at 8:00pm EST. President Trump and Vice President Pence will announce their bid for a second term in the White House. First lady Melania Trump and second lady Karen Pence are also attending the launch.
UPDATE: Video Added
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The “45 festival” events have been ongoing all day in/around the arena, and ongoing rally speakers are speaking to a massive audience. There is a large media presence including outlets from all over the world. Several live-streams are available:
Chopper pressers are the best pressers. Departing the White House for the Orlando kick-off rally, President Trump stops by the press pool to answer questions. [Video and Transcript Below]
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[Transcript] – 4:01 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Mark Esper, who is a highly respected gentleman with a great career — West Point, Harvard, a tremendous talent — was just named Acting Secretary of Defense. I think he’ll do very well. He was Secretary of the Army. I got to know him very well and he’s an outstanding guy.
Pat Shanahan, who is a wonderful person, is, as you know, going to take some time off for family matters. And I want to thank him for his service. He’s a terrific person. And it’s a difficult time for Pat, but he’s going to take a little time off for family service and for working things out. And I think you know about it. You know very well about it.
But Mark Esper is going to be outstanding, and we look forward to working with him for a long period of time to come.
Q Did you ask Shanahan to withdraw, Mr. President?
THE PRESIDENT: Excuse me?
Q Did you ask Shanahan to withdraw?
THE PRESIDENT: No, I didn’t. I didn’t ask him to withdraw, but he walked in this morning and he said it’s going to be a rough time for him because of, obviously, what happened. But I did not ask him to withdraw. He presented me with a letter this morning. That was his — that was his decision.
Q Did you know about these allegations before you said you wanted him to be the Defense Secretary?
THE PRESIDENT: I had heard about it yesterday for the first time. I didn’t know about it. I had heard about yesterday. And it’s very unfortunate. Very unfortunate.
Q Does that make you concerned then about the White House vetting process if you had just heard about it yesterday?
THE PRESIDENT: No, we have a very good vetting process. And you take a look at our Cabinet and our Secretaries — it’s very good. But we have a great vetting process. But this is something that came up a little bit over the last short period of time.
And, as you know, Pat was Acting. And so, Acting gives you much greater flexibility. A lot easier to do things. So that’s the way it is. Too bad.
April.
Q Mr. President, will you apologize to the Central Park 5? They’ve been exonerated. There have been videos and movies shown about the case, and you came out with a full-page ad saying that they should die, that they should have the death penalty. Do you apologize?
THE PRESIDENT: Why would you bring that question up now? It’s an interesting time to bring it up.
Q There’s movies and everything about them.
THE PRESIDENT: You have people on both sides of that. They admitted their guilt. If you look at Linda Fairstein, and if you look at some of prosecutors, they think that the city should never have settled that case. So we’ll leave it at that.
Q Does not having a permanent Defense Secretary complicate your policy —
THE PRESIDENT: No, not at all.
Q — let’s say, with Iran?
THE PRESIDENT: I think, frankly, this could happen very quickly for Mark Esper. He’s very experienced. He’s the —
Q But it’s already been six months.
THE PRESIDENT: — he’s been around all of the things that we’re talking about for a very long period of time.
Q Why should Americans trust your administration to tell the truth about what’s going on with Iran? If we go to war, why should we believe you if you say why?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, we have Iran. We’ve been talking to various people on lots of different sides. And we’ll see what happens with Iran. We’re very well set. We’re very well configured. We have a lot of things going on with Iran.
I spoke with President Xi, this morning, of China. We’ll be meeting at the G20. And I think that is working out pretty much as I anticipated it would. China very much wants to discuss the future, and so do we.
So the relationship with President Xi is a very good one. We had a long talk this morning.
Q Immigration officials we’ve been speaking with say they don’t know anything —
THE PRESIDENT: Say it?
Q Immigration officials say they don’t know anything about a planned roundup of millions of people in the next few weeks.
THE PRESIDENT: Well, they know. They know. And they’re going to start next week. And when people come into our country and they come in illegally, they have to go out. And everybody is seeing that.
And as you know, Mexico has been doing a very good job the last four days. They haven’t done that in 25 years. They’re doing a very good job. I appreciate the job they’re doing. Guatemala, likewise, is much different than it was under past administrations. So we’ll see how that works out.
With all of that being said, the Democrats should get together and solve the asylum problem, which is very easy to solve. And they should solve the loophole problem, also very easy to solve.
Q Mr. President, you have an Acting Defense Secretary; you’ve had one for months. Why is it taking you so long to nominate someone permanently when you have so many hotspots in the world?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, this came up — this just came up. And I did the nomination —
Q The White House has known about it for a while.
THE PRESIDENT: This just came up, and I think we did it very quickly.
Pat Shanahan was Acting, and we put Mark Esper in. Mark is highly experienced. I think he’s going to fit in very easily.
Q Do you still want to demote Jay Powell? Is that something you’re still interested in?
THE PRESIDENT: Say it?
Q Do you want to demote Jay Powell? Are you interested in that? At the Fed? At the Federal Reserve?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, let’s see what he does. I can tell you that Draghi and the EU, if you look at what’s going on with the euro, they have a much different stance than our folks do.
As you know, he did something today that was very dramatic. And, frankly, it helped that part of the world. So we’ll see what happens. They’re going to be making an announcement pretty soon, so we’ll see what happens.
But I want to be given a level playing field. And, so far, I haven’t been.
Q (Inaudible) to demote him, do you think?
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah, I would be allowed to speak to him very easily. I speak to him anyway.
Q Mr. President, are you going to nominate Mark Esper for the permanent position, not just Acting?
THE PRESIDENT: Say it?
Q Are you going to nominate Esper for the permanent position?
THE PRESIDENT: Most likely. That’s what I’m thinking about doing.
Q When are you going to decide?
THE PRESIDENT: Most likely. Pretty soon.
Q And what’s the next step for Iran, Mr. President?
THE PRESIDENT: We’re looking at Iran. We have a lot of things going with Iran. We have — we’re very prepared for Iran. We’ll see what happens. Let me just say this: We are very prepared. Regardless of what goes, we are very, very prepared.
If you look at what’s taken place, if you look at what they’ve done, if you look at — and I’m not just talking about over the last week, I’m talking about over a long period of years. They’ve been a nation of terror. Now, we’ll see what happens. We’ll see what happens. They are a much different country today than they were two and a half years ago when I came into office.
When President Obama signed that horrible deal, they were screaming “Death to America.” I haven’t been hearing that lately.
Q Mr. President, on the 9/11 Compensation Fund, do you want to see it approved so that this never has to be revisited again — through 2090?
THE PRESIDENT: I have a meeting on that, actually, this afternoon, before my speech. I’m going down, as you know — it’s a very big crowd down in Florida — Orlando. And before that, I’m having a meeting. So we’ll — we’ll be letting you know.
Q Do you think you can reach a deal with President Xi at the G20? Or are you basically starting over?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, I have a very good relationship with President Xi, and we’ll see what happens. I think we have a chance. I know that China wants to make a deal. They don’t like the tariffs. A lot of companies are leaving China in order to avoid the tariffs. I have a very good relationship with President Xi. We’ll see what happens.
Q If that meeting goes well, are you willing to hold off on the next round of tariffs?
THE PRESIDENT: Say it?
Q If that meeting goes well, are you willing to delay that next round of tariffs?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, we’ll see what happens. I think the meeting might very well go well. And, frankly, our people are starting the deal as of tomorrow. The teams, they’re starting to deal. So, we’ll see.
China would like to make the deal, we’d like to make the deal, but it has to be a good deal for everybody.
Q Have they given you an indication that they’ve changed their position on some of the sticking points that scuttled the last deal?
THE PRESIDENT: They did. They changed their position. So I said, “We’re not going to do that.”
Q (Inaudible) immigrants do you want to see deported? Are you talking about families, children? What’s the population of people you’re going to (inaudible)?
THE PRESIDENT: You’re going to find out. You’re going to find out.
This is a good development. I strongly appreciate a U.S. President who believes in the intelligence of the U.S. voter to understand what is taking place.
President Trump is not selling the U.S. electorate short on their ability to understand the financial dynamic of ‘globalists -vs- nationalists’. President Trump is calling attention to currency manipulation by China and the EU. [Tweet]
In the big picture, what these global economies are doing is trying to offset President Trump’s ‘America First’ policy. There are trillions at stake, and when you stand back and evaluate the scale of economic cost in this process you begin to recognize the severity of ideology and history of controlled financial manipulation.
By lowering the value of their currency, China and the EU are attempting to block the impact of tariffs against their export position. Lowering the price of Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) or Euro (€) makes their exports cheaper to a stronger U.S. dollar. This is what has been happening for the past six months. There are trillions at stake.
Despite what the Wall Street financial pundits have been saying, we have been importing their manufactured deflation for six months. U.S. consumers are not paying the tariffs on imported goods. The devaluation of currency is why costs of import goods are actually less year-over-year (dollar strong). This is a strategy on their part to counter Trump, tariffs, etc. The globalist economies are trying to wait out Trump 2020. We see the evidence of this in the CPI import prices:
A stronger dollar and a weakened euro or yuan (or any other currency) makes the imported goods cost less (paid in dollars). This offsets any tariff impact and keeps the U.S. prices low. In essence we are importing deflation.
Stand back and contemplate the scale of globalist ideology at work in this dynamic.
The nations that devalue their currency drive up inflation within their own economy. In German, France, etc., and/or in China,… bread, cheese, butter or basically any product costs more. People within those economies pay more for their “stuff” as the central planning group drive down the value of their currency; it hurts the internal citizens of the country doing the devaluation. Inflation hurts them; their wages buy less; stuff costs them more.
But the ‘Big Club’ within the domestic economy doesn’t care about the cost to their citizens, they are trying to fight Trump.
In an effort to carry out their globalist ideological fight to stop Trump from reclaiming wealth (through new trade positions and the return of blue-collar manufacturing), these nations are willing to subsidize an effort to retain status even if it means hurting their own citizens in the process.
Bottom-line they are driving down their own currency, trying to defeat U.S. policies, while waiting out Trump 2020 and hoping he is defeated.
So long as the devalued nations trade among themselves the lower value of their currency doesn’t necessarily cost them anything. However, as soon as they engage with the non-manipulated currency (ie. USA), where the currency is not devalued, their lowered currency costs them a bunch.
In the short term, their exports to the U.S. drop in cost and we import their deflation. However, in turn they cannot afford to purchase U.S. products and this can hurt our exports. Fortunately, the U.S. economy is not necessarily dependent on exports; we use around 80% of the stuff we make or generate internally. But with a higher dollar U.S. agricultural exports go up in price…. hence the Big AG multinationals rail against Trump.
The moves by China and the EU to lower their currency, makes our exports more expensive; in turn this effect becomes fuel for the Big Club multinationals (Wall Street) to rail against President Trump. Again, this is all part of the globalist plan to defeat Trump.
Within this dynamic U.S. inflation is low, because the prices for durable good imports are now intentionally lowered. Simultaneously the prices of perishable goods remains low because the domestic supply is being exported less.
CTH predicted this dynamic back in 2016 when we said the prices of imports would not rise even with tariffs, and the prices of domestics would likely fall. It’s one of the key reasons we said U.S. inflation would be detached from massive growth in the U.S. economy. In essence, the entire world of suppliers are trying to keep the U.S. economy as customers for imported goods… they desperately don’t want to see the U.S. take their jobs back into America.
Right now an American worker with higher wages can buy imported stuff cheap; and can also travel cheap if desired (our dollar is strong).
Again, 80% of our GDP is internal; we are generally a self-sufficient nation… that is our strength. But the globalists can only hold out so long before their intentionally constructed anti-Trump dynamic makes their own citizens misery so bad they will grab the pitchforks….
The globalists are hoping they don’t have to wait longer than November 2020.
President Trump is launching the 2020 campaign tonight at 8:00pm in Orlando at the Amway Center. The event has turned into a “45 Festival” as tens-of-thousands of supporters participate in the day-long events. RSBN is broadcasting a livestream:
Marc Lotter
✔@marc_lotter
The party is started at #45Fest nearly 12 hours before @realDonaldTrump takes the stage in Orlando!
National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News immediately following the announcement that President Trump and Chairman Xi will have an “extended meeting” at the G20.
President Trump tweeted about a phone call this morning with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping. There will be a G20 meeting between Trump and Xi. So, extending our conversation from yesterday…. the “magnanimous panda” approach appears confirmed.
[White House] President Donald J. Trump spoke with President Xi Jinping of China this morning. The two leaders discussed the importance of leveling the playing field for U.S. farmers, workers, and businesses through a fair and reciprocal economic relationship. This includes addressing structural barriers to trade with China and achieving meaningful reforms that are enforceable and verifiable. The leaders also discussed regional security issues. The two Presidents look forward to meeting again in Osaka, Japan at the G20 Summit. (read more)
With Chairman Xi Jinping traveling to North Korea for talks with his captive Kim Jong Un prior to the G20; and with the meeting between Xi and Trump confirmed; it certainly looks like Beijing is deflecting the weakness of their economic/trade position by shifting the optic toward a geopolitical magnanimous panda. The scale of the uprising in Hong Kong was also a likely influence on the margins.
What we don’t know is whether Xi will tell/threaten Kim Jong Un to wait-out President Trump, with warnings that Trump may not be around to save him after 2020…. If Xi takes that approach with Kim it means his thinking is similar; if so, the Chairman is taking a big gamble on his own economic survival by trying to wait-out President Trump.
However, if Xi tells Kim Jong Un that Kim’s captivity is over, then the denuclearization of North Korea will be the visible outcome. In this scenario Xi will play the role of magnanimous panda and *guide* Kim into the West. South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be heralded as the hero so that Xi doesn’t look like he lost to Trump.
President Trump has threatened more tariffs and more consequential action as it relates to non-tariff barriers, IP protection, forced technology transfers etc as a result of China reneging on their prior agreement. In essence, President Trump has put Chairman Xi under threat. Beijing’s traditional and cultural position would be no-meeting and no negotiation while under threats.
Chairman Xi agreeing to meet with President Trump at the G20 would normally be a sign of weakness due to Trump threats. This indicates that some outcome from the meeting with Kim will flip “weakness” to “strength” in the eyes of China.
My best guess would be the magnanimous panda play.
However, watch out for the delay and stall approach to wait-out Trump until 2020.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America