Tag Archives: The Lady in Red

Apr 26 2017

More Visible Dots The Media Ignore In Trump’s Strategy Against North Korea…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 26, 2017 by

Hours before the Trump administration briefed 100 senators today on the issues surrounding North Korea, a more consequential announcement was made.

The jaw dropping announcement (hidden by U.S. media) appears to show just how long President Trump has been putting the North Korea strategy together.  However, before discussing that aspect, we review the Senate Briefing at the White House:

Today Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, presided over a meeting meeting to brief Senators.

The details of that meeting have not been made public because of their classification and sensitivity.  The meeting lasted about one hour and discussed various financial and military options available for pressuring North Korea to end its nuclear program. (link)

Here’s where it gets really interesting.

For months the media have, at random, ridiculed President Trump for not distancing himself from Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.  President Duterte has been cracking down on Filipino drug gangs in his country and his approach has been severe and extremely tough.  Indeed Duterte’s zero tolerance approach has been brutal.

However, shortly after his election, December 3rd 2016, President Trump chose not to refute Duterte for his approach toward confronting the Filipino drug gangs and drug epidemic.  The media were apoplectic.   Duterte responded by calling President Trump “a deep thinker“. Duterte said he was greatly pleased with the “rapport” he has established with the newly elected U.S. president.

Instead of President Trump calling out President Duterte for the severity of his approach, President Trump moderated any criticism and said he understood that Duterte was confronting the problem the best way he knew how for his country.

That was in December of 2016.

Well, guess who is now the rotating (every year) Chairman of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)?

Yup, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

And just yesterday, after a visit last week from Vice-President Pence, ASEAN announced:

Southeast Asian nations would adopt a softer than usual tone about South China Sea disputes at a leaders’ summit on Saturday in Manila, and exclude references to militarization or island-building, according to a draft of the chairman’s statement.

Although some Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders will express “serious concern” over the “escalation of activities” in the disputed sea, ASEAN will drop references, or even allusions, to China’s construction of artificial islands and the military hardware it has placed on them, according excerpts of the draft seen by Reuters. (link)

China has been expanding its seven man-made islands in the Spratlys (South China Sea) for several years, and the action has been a considerable point of angst for the region and for U.S. geo-political strategists in the former Obama administration.

However, despite the activity, and despite the protestations by the Obama White House and Obama State Department, the general consensus has been there’s nothing any nation can do about it because China exerts tremendous economic leverage in the entire region.  Additionally, the man-made Islands are too far along for any substantive international efforts to thwart them. 

The horse giant panda is now fully out of the barn.

There’s no President Trump policy capable of reversing the position of China in this action.  Done is done.  However, the international view of legitimacy around these islands still carries some major political leverage if applied toward a greater regional need of similar consequence.

Enter the need for the international community, and ASEAN specifically, to see North Korea pull-back from their doomsday nuclear ambitions…. and President Trump understanding that given the nature of entire issue – it all comes down to leveraging China, using complex terms of political currency, valuation and international legitimacy, against North Korea.

The Giant Panda can eliminate the problem that is Kim Jong Un.

ASEAN Chairman, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, modifying the confrontational tone of Asian nations toward China is yet another useful carrot by U.S. President Trump to stimulate China’s increased pressure upon North Korea.

That’s a really big ‘get’ for President Xi Jinping.

“Complicated business folks, ….Complicated business”…  

Again, a review of the activity timeline reveals a long-term strategic approach: 

♦February 10th – President Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Abe at the White House and at Mar-a-Lago, w/both spouses, to discuss regional issues (including N-Korea).

♦February 27th – President Trump and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi meet in the White House Oval Office to discuss regional issues (including N-Korea).

♦March 15th – Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visits Japan, South Korea and China to follow up on February’s conversations and discuss the forward path (including N-Korea).

♦April 6th and 7th – President Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago where they discussed all of the critical bilateral and regional issues (including N-Korea).  President Trump seeded the background by appointing Ambassador Terry Branstad, a 30-year personal friend of President Xi Jinping.

♦April 8th – Secretary Rex Tillerson debriefs the media.  <– CRITICAL READ

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?

  • For the first time ever, China did not support Russia in a U.N. Security Council veto vote surrounding Syria.   China abstained.
  • China turned around 12 fully loaded cargo ships laden with imported coal from North Korea.  400,000 metric tonnes refused unloading.   China begins an embargo against North Korean coal.  China begins importing coking coal for steel-making from the U.S. coal mines.
  • Additionally, in furtherance of economic sanctions – China halts oil exports to North Korea.
  • Additionally, in furtherance of political isolation – China halts direct flights between Beijing, China and Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • And in the most stunning seismic shift of geo-political alliances, China says it is now open to discussions of a denuclearized North Korea, meaning getting rid of N-Korean nukes, WITHOUT N-Korea being included in the talks. Hello?  China, the United States, Japan, Russia and South Korea discussing how to de-nuke North Korea.  (A new Marshal Plan of sorts)

♦April 14th – President Trump announces policy directive to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that there’s no need to label China as a currency manipulator.

♦April 15th – Vice President Pence arrived in Asia for a ten day visit (South Korea, Japan, China, Indonesia, Australia); positioned as the steady, stable and reliable administration policy closer (including N-Korea).

♦April 23rd – President Trump followed up on Pence’s visit with personal phone calls to China’s President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; again, the topic was North Korea.

♦April 24th – U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley brings the U.N. Security Council to the White House for lunch with President Trump.  The President spoke of the need for the U.N. to fulfill its original charter.

♦April 25th – ASEAN (Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte – rotating ASEAN Chairman) releases policy statement saying Southeast Asian nations agree to go easy on Beijing over South China Sea dispute.

Although some Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders will express “serious concern” over the “escalation of activities” in the disputed sea, ASEAN will drop references, or even allusions, to China’s construction of artificial islands and the military hardware it has placed on them, according excerpts of the draft seen by Reuters.

♦April 26th – President Trump invites all U.S. Senators to the White House for a classified briefing on North Korea.

♦April 28th – (THIS FRIDAY) U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be traveling to the U.N. to speak to the Security Council personally.

Apr 26 2017

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Talks To Lou Dobbs….


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 25, 2017 by

Ah, the simple joys in life.  Wilburine Ross interviewed by Lou Dobbs… Sip slowly.

The general status of angst created by ordinary swamp review has a tendency to wear down a soul. It’s at the times when we feel surrounded we should reflect upon how lucky we are to have the T’Rex’s and Wilburines on our team. We’ve already won, our opponents just haven’t noticed yet.

Apr 26 2017

White House Responds to Judge Orrick Defunding “Sanctuary City” Injunction…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 26, 2017 by

Apr 25 2017

Wilbur Ross Hits Canada With Soft Wood Import Tariff…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 25, 2017 by

How do you get congress to accept the NAFTA notification of intent letter? Why, you backstop the Canadian decision to undermine U.S. dairy farm exports by applying equity import tariffs and offsetting losses to U.S. manufacturers.

First stop, lumber mills. ie U.S. regional impacts, not coincidentally, represented by key Democrat constituents.

The congressional delegations from Washington State and Oregon happen to be mostly elected Democrats; and they happen to applaud the efforts; which means they are not able to criticize the approach. Hmm, it’s almost as if Wilburine and POTUS had a strategy or something.   Nah, couldn’t be.

(Via CNN) These are the first tariffs imposed by President Trump, who during his election campaign threatened to use them on imports from both China and Mexico. The decision on Monday is bound to lead to a standoff and could stoke fears of a trade war between the US and Canada, two of the world’s largest trade powers.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the tariffs, or taxes, announced Monday evening were being imposed after trade talks on dairy products fell through.

“It has been a bad week for US-Canada trade relations,” Ross said in a statement. Trump’s tariffs come as the US, Canada and Mexico prepare to renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade agreement among the three countries that came into being in 1994. Trump has directed almost all of his NAFTA criticism at Mexico, which makes this decision even more surprising.

When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Trump in February, Trump said he only expected to be “tweaking” the US-Canada trade relationship.

The tariffs — also called duties — ranged from 3% to 24% on specifically five Canadian lumber companies. For all other Canadian lumber companies, there’s a nearly 20% duty imposed on exports to the US.

The five firms were: West Fraser Mills, Tolko Marketing and Sales, J.D. Irving, Canfor Corporation, and Resolute FP Canada. West Fraser Mills will pay the highest duty of 24%.

The duties were imposed to create a level playing field for American lumber companies.

U.S. lumber companies allege Canadian firms are provided with unfair subsidies by the Canadian government.

Canadian exports of softwood lumber to the U.S. were valued at $5.6 billion last year, according to the Commerce Department.

The Commerce Department said the duties are preliminary and a final determination will be made in September. The U.S. Lumber Coalition, which represents the industry, said the duties will likely take effect starting sometime next week. The Commerce Department wasn’t available to clarify. (read more)

REACTION: Senator Ron Wyden (Democrat-Oregon.), the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, applauded the Commerce Department’s decision.

“Unfairly traded softwood lumber from Canada has for decades hurt mill towns and American millworkers in Oregon and across the country,” Wyden said.

“Today’s announcement sends the message that help is on the way,” he said. (link)

Apr 25 2017

The Fate of the Euro


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Apr 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Albert Einstein We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.

QUESTION: The bounce in the Euro is a fool’s’ game?

ANSWER: Absolutely. The Euro is doomed because especially if Le Pen loses, Brussels will be relieved and proceed as usual. The same problems will merely exist and no reform will come forward to save the day. A good wind will blow over the European banking system. You are expecting politicians to admit they were wrong and surrender power in Brussels. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. As Einstein said, you will NEVER solve the problem of the Euro with the same thinking process.

IBEUUS-M 4-24-2017

As weekly closing above the 10860 level in the Euro will imply the rally will press high to test the 112-114 level. Just look at the technical perspective on a monthly level. The Downtrend Line stands in May up at 12622. We are nowhere near reversing the trend in the Euro.

We have the French, British, and then German elections here in 2017. We do not expect total chaos before 2018. That seems to be the point of a major shift.

Apr 25 2017

If US Election Were Held today – Trump Would Get More Votes Polls Show


Armstrong Economics Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Re-Posted Apr 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Trump Sworn In

The latest polls show that most people who voted for Trump are satisfied. When the same questions have been asking about Hillary, the opposite response appears. The polls are actually showing that Trump would win a greater margin today than last year. This is interesting for it is confirming the collapse in government with Big Bang that began on October 1st, 2015.

BIG BANG ECM 2015.75

Big Bang was the start of the collapse in confidence in government. This cycle should intensify starting in 2018 running head long into 2020. This is all good for the volatility in markets we see ahead. This is the same trend that produced BREXIT and just wiped out all mainstream parties in France.

Apr 21 2017

OMB Director Mick Mulvaney Discusses The Pending Economic Policy Confrontation…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 21, 2017 by

Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney appears on Bloomberg News to discuss the seismic, epic, thundershock confrontational clash that is about to take place between the Trump administration and the DC UniParty.

There are no adjectives capable of describing the scope and immeasurable scale of the battle that is about to transpire between the White House and the Democrat/Republican UniParty.

MONEY is where every entity within the full-swamp goes nuclear against President Trump and the administration.  Despite all prior discussions toward this end, it is doubtful that more than one-in-a-million people can fully grasp the dynamic at play.

Because the procedural wonk is so inherently riddled with ten thousand tentacles of political schematics, I will defray the wonk-speak until after the video.

.

If you are interested in deep political weeds, keep reading. However, if you have blood pressure issues or are concerned about your physical or mental health, STOP HERE and go enjoy life. Believe me.

From a political perspective the outline of the assembled enemy forces are evident.  Next week former President Obama is scheduled to reappear in Chicago.  This is not coincidental.  There are trillions of dollars at stake.

Every vested financial interest has been, and is now, prepared to do battle against President Trump.  All of the body blows from the media, including their professional gaslighting efforts, was merely to soften Trump up for the pending attacks.

All of the previous accusations, ridicule, marginalization, probes and diminishment efforts by the media and their multinational corporate entities will pale in comparison to what lies ahead.

If you listen to Mulvaney carefully, and accept that the UniParty apparatus is real and purposeful, then you can see the scope of the financial strategy coming from DC.  Remember, the BIG CLUB has paid for legislative policy.  They will not allow those payments to be non-reciprocated, all of the DC politicians are now commissioned to fight without limits or rules on their behalf.

BIG CLUB: ♦Retention of ObamaCare. ♦Deep Federal Spending. ♦NO border wall. ♦Open-ended immigration until congress delivers comprehensive immigration reform to include amnesty. ♦Tax Cuts (corporate revenue enhancements).

♦House Speaker Paul Ryan will use the budgetary rules process, as a backdoor, to leverage the U.S. CoC Lobbyists construct of the Border Adjustment Tax (BAT).

♦No-one paid by the Big Club in Washington DC will willingly support the Border Wall.

Think about what Director Mulvaney is saying in the video above.   Mulvaney is highlighting the point that tax/budget will either use the reconciliation process, or not – depending on the opposition and depending on the support.

Any budget can pass the house with a simple majority, the Republicans have full control.

However, when the budget reaches the Senate if they are going to use “reconciliation” (simple majority/republicans only) the budget must be revenue neutral beyond 10 years – if the tax plan/budget is going to be permanent.

If the Tax-Plan/Budget delivered to the Senate is not deemed revenue neutral (scored by CBO) beyond 10 years, it cannot be permanent and use the reconciliation process (simple majority).   Such a plan must contain a sunset provision or an expiration date.

A permanent tax plan/budget that is: not deficit neutral, and beyond the 10 year scope, will require support from more than just 52 republican senators to pass; because it will mean long-term deficit spending.

Here’s where the FUBAR of the UniParty comes into play.  This is not a Democrat -vs- White House issue.

President Trump cannot present a balanced budget with drastic cuts to government, because UniParty republicans will not support it.  They, along with Democrats, will demand more spending.

Most of those same UniParty republicans are already opposed to the border wall.  They view funding for the border wall as a negotiation tool to keep the federal government spending on other facets.   President Trump cannot fund the wall, and simultaneously fund their big government spending indulgences without deficit spending.

Enter Paul Ryan.

Ryan will propose this Border Adjustment Tax, a program Trump hates, as the revenue tool to provide the funding for the tax/budget that contains the border wall funding.

See how that works?

[U.S. CoC and Ryan ] – The U.S. CoC get their B.A.T, which is essentially a tax against consumers allowing big corporations to fatten their bottom line, by forcing Trump to give up his border wall or go along with their proposal.

Wait, you ask: …what about renegotiated trade deals with (Mexico) via NAFTA that will, essentially, provide the revenue that more than pays for the wall?

Great question.  Yes, the renegotiated NAFTA deals would easily provide the treasury revenue that will offset any wall expenditures.

However, now you understand why congress is refusing to accept the NAFTA “letter of intent” from Commerce Secretary Ross.  The republican UniParty congress is blocking, well, actually they are ‘strategically delaying‘, Wilbur Ross from renegotiating the trade deal with Mexico – and by doing so they are blocking the revenue that would undermine their tax/budget scheme and argument in favor of the B.A.T.

Remember, accepting the letter of intent triggers the start of a 90-day waiting period before Ross can open NAFTA.   Congress is waiting to accept, until the end of the 90-day period falls AFTER October 1st 2017, the beginning of Fiscal Year 2018.

This UniParty approach robs the White House from using the anticipated Mexican money as a point of reference (political talking point) for the current tax and budget proposals which begin October 1st for fiscal year 2018.  (The B.A.T also impacts the possibility of a greater economic trade deal with Mexico from the tax side.)

See how that works?

[Hence, the blood pressure warnings]

This is not a Democrat party working against the White House.  This is a republican UniParty working against the White House.

Speaker Ryan is positioning funding for the border wall contingent upon Trump accepting the blanket B.A.T as revenue to pay for it.  This is the position of the Lobbyists within the U.S. CoC. If Ryan wins we are all screwed because essentially the tax revenue will be on our backs for every product imported and exported.   But the big corporations love the enhancements to their bottom lines.

OMB Director Mick Mulvaney is trying to position and protect President Trump from having to accept the B.A.T. because the BAT is antithetical to the economic trade policy, targeted tariff approach, President Trump wants to take.

Simultaneously, Mulvaney is trying to get President Trump the initial start up money for the Border Wall so he doesn’t have to accept Ryan’s BAT.

Ergo Mick Mulvaney is trying to draw in Democrat votes to offset the scheme of Ryan which is relying only upon Republican votes.  If Mulvaney can get Democrats to vote for funding the border wall by giving them funding to continue ObamaCare, Mulvaney won’t need Ryan’s BAT revenue because he’ll have votes to support a deficit bill.

However, Democrats don’t want the border wall either; but they also don’t want ObamaCare to collapse earlier due to funding shortages within the insurance reimbursement program (cost share programs).

FUBAR.

When challenged about the UniParty, it always helps to remind and re-emphasize to people that Republicans in congress (House and Senate – ’10 through ’16) fully funded all of Obama’s policies and programs.

Apr 21 2017

President Trump: “I do not see a role in Libya”…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 21, 2017 by

During a press conference yesterday with Italian President Gentiloni, President Trump was asked about the future U.S. role Libya.

QUESTION:  President Trump, do you see a role for your administration in helping stabilizing Libya?  And do you agree that stabilizing Libya means combating terrorism and ISIS?

PRESIDENT TRUMP:  “I do not see a role in Libya.  I think the United States has right now enough roles.  We’re in a role everywhere.  So I do not see that.  I do see a role in getting rid of ISIS.  We’re being very effective in that regard.  We are doing a job, with respect to ISIS, that has not been done anywhere near the numbers that we’re producing right now.  It’s a very effective force we have.  We have no choice.  It’s a horrible thing to say, but we have no choice.  And we are effectively ridding the world of ISIS.  I see that as a primary role, and that’s what we’re going to do, whether it’s in Iraq or in Libya or anywhere else.  And that role will come to an end at a certain point, and we’ll be able to go back home and rebuild our country, which is what I want to do.”

[Transcript]

President Trump is taking the smart and strategic approach toward Libya having previously discussed the North African country extensively with President al-Sisi of neighboring Egypt.

The smart play is for the U.S. to maintain diplomatic relationships with Libya, while supporting Egypt and al-Sisi’s position of influence.  Libya’s factional and tribal government is still missing the core elements needed for success – a stable central figure with broad moderate following.

History has shown that injecting U.S. opinion toward a centralized government that exists without leadership only brings a worse outcome.

Like Syria, Libya is a tribal nation with diverse ideological and regional perspectives.  If there isn’t an existing structure of regional representation when the dictator is removed chaos is the outcome.   However, once regional representative leaders are established, the bottom up approach can work better to find a unifying central figure.

That’s also the goal in Syria.

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Apr 21 2017

Egypt Releases American Aide Worker After President Trump Request…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 21, 2017 by

President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi began a diplomatic friendship in September ’16 before the U.S. election.  Two weeks ago President al-Sisi visited the White House and both leaders warmly praised the relationship established.

[…] “I fully trust the capabilities of President Trump … he can succeed in so many fields that others cannot. I trust him wholeheartedly.”…

~ Eqyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

As a gesture of the shift in relationship between the U.S. and Egypt, and at the request of President Trump, President al-Sisi’s administration released two imprisoned aide workers.  They arrived back in the U.S. late last night.

Maintaining a diplomatic approach, President Trump speaks little about the event except to express appreciation for the release.

(Via WaPo) […] President Trump and his aides worked for several weeks with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi to secure the freedom of Aya Hijazi, 30, a U.S. citizen, as well as her husband, Mohamed Hassanein, who is Egyptian, and four other humanitarian workers. Trump dispatched a U.S. government aircraft to Cairo to bring Hijazi and her family to Washington.

[…]  The Obama administration unsuccessfully pressed Sissi’s government for their release. It was not until Trump moved to reset U.S. relations with Egypt by embracing Sissi at the White House on April 3 — he publicly hailed the autocrat’s leadership as “fantastic” and offered the U.S. government’s “strong backing” — that Egypt’s posture changed. Last Sunday, a court in Cairo dropped all charges against Hijazi and the others. (read more)

Apr 21 2017

Stunning Research Videos – Was Berkeley Police Department Supporting Antifa Violence?….


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 20, 2017 by

This is a well presented and easy to understand video which appears to make a solid case that police munitions were fired by the Berkeley Police Department against Trump supporters, and in support of AntiFA thugs, last weekend.

The video was created by Thomas Wictor who is continuing to assemble more evidence.  WATCH, it is rather stunning to realize what could be happening:

If the video is correct the FBI needs to immediately open an investigation into the use of police munitions against political opponents by Berkeley Police.

Update: 2nd Video Added: