Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  As President Trump departs the White House traveling to Cincinnati, Ohio, for a MAGA rally, the high energy POTUS stops to answer questions from the press pool.  [Video Below – Transcript ADDED]

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[Transcript]  THE PRESIDENT: Yes.

Q Mr. President, why the tariffs against China now? And are you concerned about the nosedive the Dow took today as a result?

THE PRESIDENT: No, I’m not concerned about that at all. I expected that a little bit because people don’t understand quite yet about what’s happened.

We’ve taxed China on 300 billion dollars’ worth of goods and products being sold into our country. And China eats it because they have to pay it. Because what they do is they devalue their currency and they push money out.

Our people haven’t paid, as you know. We’re also charging them 25 percent on $250 billion. So we’re taking in many billions of dollars. There’s been absolutely no inflation. And frankly, it hasn’t cost our consumer anything; it costs China.

Now, what has happened is a lot of companies are moving out of China so they can, you know, avoid. And China has had a rough twenty- — this is their worst year in 27 years, according to yesterday’s Wall Street Journal. I don’t want that.

But when my people came home, they said we’re talking. We have another meeting in early September. I said, “That’s fine.” But in the meantime, until such time as there’s a deal, we’ll be taxing them.

We’re just getting — and we’re getting very good numbers from the border. The 21,000 soldiers supplied by Mexico. And I want to thank Mexico. They’re doing a great job. The numbers are way down at the border.

Q On North Korea, sir. On North Korea, they apparently just launched their third missile in about a week. Is Kim testing you?

THE PRESIDENT: I think it’s very much under control. Very much under control.

Q President Trump, we’re talking about a full-blown trade war here. What do you say to American —

THE PRESIDENT: Well, what would you say it is?

Q No, I’m asking you —

THE PRESIDENT: Let me ask you a question.

Q What do you say to American business owners —

THE PRESIDENT: Right. Right. Right.

Q — and consumers who are going to pay the price for these tariffs, sir.

THE PRESIDENT: Sure. Sure. What would you say when China, for the last 20 years, has been taking hundreds of billions of dollars out of our country? And we had a President that would never do anything — a number of Presidents that never would do anything about it. What would you say?

For many years, China has been taking money out by the hundreds of billions of dollars a year. We have rebuilt China. So now it’s time that we change things around. If they don’t want to trade with us anymore, that would be fine with me. We’d save a lot of money.

Q Mr. President, sir, do you believe that Xi is slow-walking this? And is this 10 percent tariff a bit of a hurry-up call?

THE PRESIDENT: No, I don’t know. I think President Xi, who’s somebody I like a lot, I think he wants to make a deal. But frankly, he’s not going fast enough. He said he was going to be buying from our farmers; he didn’t do that. He said he was going to stop fentanyl from coming into our country — it’s all coming out of China; he didn’t do that. We’re losing thousands of people to fentanyl. And this was time.

And very importantly, for many years — you know this better than anybody; you’ve been covering it for a long time — for many years, China has been taking out hundreds of billions of dollars a year and rebuilding China. It’s time that we rebuild our country.

And, you know, the one thing I have to say — and you have to say this: What China is doing is they’re devaluing their currency and they’re pumping money out like they’ve never done before. And they’re paying for these tariffs; we’re not.

Q Are you concerned by reports that the Chinese army may be preparing to intervene in Hong Kong against the demonstrators? And what do you say to the accusation that the U.S. is somehow behind these protests?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, something is probably happening with Hong Kong because when you look at, you know, what’s going on, they’ve had riots for a long period of time. And I don’t know what China’s attitude is. Somebody said that at some point they’re going to want to stop that. But that’s between Hong Kong and that’s between China, because Hong Kong is a part of China. They’ll have to deal with that themselves. They don’t need advice.

Q You put a date — you put a date of September 1 on these tariffs. Are you giving Xi a chance to negotiate himself out of this?

THE PRESIDENT: No. No, no, no. It’s September 1. The reason is, it takes a long time for the ships to come over. And it’s a period of time. So I’m giving him four — like a four-week period of time before the tariffs go on.

But we’re now taking in tariffs on 10 percent on over $300 billion, and 25 percent on $250 billion. And it’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.

Q Mr. President —

THE PRESIDENT: Go ahead. Go ahead.

Q Thank you. About North Korea, North Korea launched two missiles again yesterday. How did you feel about that? And —

THE PRESIDENT: Short-range missiles. We never made an agreement on that. I have no problem. We’ll see what happens. But these are short-range missiles. They’re very standard.

Q And your response to Bernie Sanders who says —

THE PRESIDENT: Go ahead. What?

Q — that you are a pathological liar, sir?

THE PRESIDENT: Go ahead.

Q Thank you. Mr. President, are you concerned about reports that your DNI nominee, Congressman Ratcliffe, has embellished his record at all — that Democrats plan to oppose his nomination?

THE PRESIDENT: Congressman Ratcliffe is an outstanding man and I’m sure that he’ll be able to do very well. I think he’s just outstanding. Highly respected by everybody that knows him.

Q On Huawei, what will you do on Huawei to give relief to the companies —

THE PRESIDENT: Well, we’ve not changed on Huawei. We’re not allowing Huawei into our country. We’re not changed on that. We can do business for non-security things with Huawei because that’s — you know, we’ll do that. But anything having to do with national security, we’re not dealing with Huawei.

Q Mr. President, what do you think about the decision to not prosecute James Comey for leaking?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I haven’t actually heard that. I know there’s a lot of things going on. That’s a piece of it, I guess. But I really don’t know. I haven’t spoken to them about that.

I would, frankly, be surprised, because what James Comey did was illegal. So I would be surprised, but I don’t know anything about that.

Q Mr. President, in Cincinnati, at your rally tonight, are you prepared to tell your supporters to stop if they begin chanting something problematic?

THE PRESIDENT: I don’t know what’s going to happen. I can tell you this: I’m going to Cincinnati. The arena is a very large one. And we’ve sold it out. We could sell it out probably 10 times, from what I hear. The applications for seats, as you know — never had an empty seat — the applications are very big. I have no idea.

We have a great group of people. They love our country. They love the job we’re doing. And when they see the kind of people that want to represent us from the last two nights, that’s not what they want.

I don’t know — I can’t tell you whether or not they’re going to do that chant. If they do the chant, we’ll have to see what happens.

Q Will you stop it, sir? You think you will?

THE PRESIDENT: I don’t know that you can stop people. I don’t know that you can. I mean, we’ll see what we can do. I’d prefer that they don’t, but if they do it, we’ll have to make a decision then.

Q Mr. President, do you have a message — do you have a message for them now, like before they go in?

THE PRESIDENT: I do have a message. My message is for the people I’m going to — so, we had over 100,000 applications for whatever the size of the — I think it’s a 14,000-seat arena. But we’re way over a hundred and — I think 122,000 applications for those seats.

You know what my message is? I love them. And I think they love me.

Q So your message is not “don’t do this”?

THE PRESIDENT: I actually think they love me.

Q India has rejected your offer of help on Kashmir. India is also — India has rejected your offer of help on Kashmir. India says Kashmir is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan.

THE PRESIDENT: Have they accepted the offer or not?

Q No, they have not.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, that’s up to — it’s really up to Prime Minister Modi. And I met with Prime Minister Khan; I got along great with — I think they’re a fantastic people, Khan and Modi. I mean, I would imagine they can get along very well.

But if they wanted somebody to intervene or to help them — and I spoke with Pakistan about that, and I spoke, frankly, to India about it. But that’s been going on, that battle, for a long time.

Q How do you want to resolve the Kashmir —

THE PRESIDENT: If I can — if they wanted me to, I would certainly intervene.

Yeah.

Q Is the U.S. government involved in the death of Hamza bin Laden?

THE PRESIDENT: I can’t comment about that. But he was very threatening to our country. He was saying very bad things about our country. I will let you make your own comment about it.

Q Did you hear anything about it?

THE PRESIDENT: But I don’t comment. But I will say, Hamza bin Laden was very threatening to our country, and you can’t do that. As far as anything beyond that, I have no comment.

Q Mr. President, Robert Mueller said last week that Russia is interfering in U.S. elections right now. Did you raise that with Vladimir Putin yesterday?

THE PRESIDENT: You don’t really believe this. Do you believe this?

Q He said it last week. Did you raise that with President Putin yesterday?

THE PRESIDENT: We didn’t talk about that. I spoke with President Putin of Russia yesterday. They’re having massive fires in the — in their forests. They have tremendous — I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s very big.

I just offered our assistance because we’re very good at putting out forest fires, frankly. And if they should need it, I offered our assistance. We had a good talk — a short talk but a good talk. And I think he appreciated it.

So we would be able to help them. It’s — these are massive fires like I haven’t seen. That was the primary importance of the conversation. And I think they — I think they very much appreciated it.

Q Mueller said right now, he believes, Russia is interfering with the election.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I watched Mueller. I’m not sure Mueller knows what’s going on, if you want to know the truth. But all I do know is he said, “No collusion with us. No collusion,” and ultimately “no obstruction,” because it led to no obstruction by a very smart group of people, including our Attorney General. So, no collusion, no obstruction.

As far as Mueller’s performance, you would have to say it was, maybe, not so good.

Q On the Fed, sir? Sir, on the Fed? Mr. President, on the Fed, why wasn’t a quarter rate cut good enough?

THE PRESIDENT: So, our country is doing very well. We’re setting records in every way, including employment, unemployment. We have now more people working in the United States than ever before. The stock market, it will take a little hit, but it will be phenomenal because ultimately it will be much better because of what I’m doing. Somebody should have done this with China a long time ago. They decided not to do it; they made a big mistake.

But I will say this: There has never been a time in the history of our country like we have right now. The highest number of people employed, the best employment numbers for African Americans, Hispanic, women — for everybody. I mean, the best numbers we’ve ever had.

Our military is being rebuilt and it’s almost fully rebuilt. It’s going to be at a level, in a very short period of time, stronger and better than ever before with new aircraft, new missiles, new everything. Hopefully, we don’t have to use it.

Go ahead.

Q Mr. President, what did you think of the Democratic debate last night? Biden and, specifically, the charge from Congresswoman Gabbard that you’re assisting al Qaeda.

THE PRESIDENT: So, yeah, nobody knows what she meant by that. I think even you probably didn’t like that statement, John. She doesn’t know what she’s talking about. If you remember, a short while ago, I defeated ISIS. We have 100 percent of the caliphate.

So, you know, you’re always going to have somebody around. We’re — right now we have captured over 10,000. We have 2,500 ISIS fighters that we want Europe to take because they were going back into Europe — into France, into Germany, into various places. So we have, right now, 2,500 ISIS that we captured. We’ve captured 100 percent of the caliphate. And we’ve done a big job on al Qaeda and everybody else.

So for her to make that statement is ridiculous, frankly. For her to make that statement is so ridiculous. And she has taken a lot of heat on it because nobody has done more against that war than I have.

So we have thousands ISIS fighters that we want Europe to take. And let’s see if they take them. And if they don’t take them, we’ll probably have to release them to Europe.

Q Will you still negotiate, sir? Sir, can you still negotiate with Kim after what he’s done this week?

THE PRESIDENT: Say it? What?

Q Can you still negotiate with Kim after what he’s done now?

THE PRESIDENT: Oh, sure. Sure. Because these are short range missiles. We never discussed that. We discussed nuclear. What we talk about is nuclear. Those are short-range missiles. Sure. And a lot of other countries test that kind of missile also.

Q Mr. President, why was the tariff 10 percent and not 25? And then on the Fed —

THE PRESIDENT: (Laughs.) Oh, that’s funny.

Q — you said a quarter point wasn’t good enough. What would be good enough for you on the Fed, sir?

THE PRESIDENT: That’s so interesting, because everyone says, “Gee, that’s so tough.” And now you’re saying I should have done more.

Q But why didn’t you do more?

THE PRESIDENT: Look, I did more than anybody thought with the first $250 billion. And the 10 percent is for a short-term period, and then I can always do much more or I can do less, depending on what happens with respect to a deal.

But I’m very happy the way it is right now. My people came back. They’re going to meet again in September. I said, “Look, if you meet, that’s great.” But in the meantime, we’re going to pay — they’re going to pay a tariff and it’ll be a very substantial tariff.

Now, if you remember, when I did the 25 percent, I did it in stages. And this can also be lifted, ultimately, in stages, or it can be taken off. But it can be lifted in stages. So we’re starting at 10 percent, and it can be lifted up to well beyond 25 percent. But we’re not looking to do that necessarily.

But this would be done in stages. So I put on 10 percent on 300 — it’s approximately $300 billion. We already have a 25 percent tariff on the first $250 billion. So, the 10 percent follows the $250 billion at 25 percent.

Q Mr. President, thank you. Are you considering a blockade or quarantine of Venezuela, given the amount of foreign involvement from Russia, China, and Iran?

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, I am.

Q You are considering it?

THE PRESIDENT: Yes, I am. Yes. Yes, I am.

Q I want to ask you, Mr. President, since the Mueller hearing, 116 House Democrats have said they want to launch a House inquiry. Why do you think that number continues to go up?

THE PRESIDENT: You know, it’s interesting — nobody has even mentioned this question to me in so long.

Q Right.

THE PRESIDENT: Until last night at the very end, it wasn’t even mentioned in the debates. People aren’t even thinking — it’s a hoax. I don’t know if you know that. You know it’s a hoax, right?

So, nobody has mentioned it to me.

One thing I will say that you haven’t covered: Two days ago, a highly respected judge in the Southern District of New York, in Manhattan, came out with a decision on the whole Russia hoax, and he said exactly that: it’s a hoax.

You ought to read the decision. This is a decision by a judge who is highly respected — who was appointed by Bill Clinton when he was President — and he came out and he said, “It’s a hoax.” And that’s exactly what it is. This was a case brought by the Democrats against me, and nobody wants to talk about it. You know why? Because it’s fake news.

Q Mr. President, what did you tell Putin about the INF Treaty?

THE PRESIDENT: We didn’t discuss the INF. Mostly, we discussed the forest fires in Siberia and other parts of Russia. And I said, “Look, we have the greatest equipment. If we can help you, let us know.” Large sections are burning. And so I said to President Putin, “If we can help you, let me know.”

Q But we’re pulling out of the treaty tomorrow.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, we’ll see what happens.

By the way, I will say, Russia would like to do something on a nuclear treaty. And that’s okay with me. They’d like to do something, and so would I.

Q What’s your response to Elizabeth Warren’s comment last night that —

THE PRESIDENT: Say it again.

Q What’s your response to Elizabeth Warren’s comment last night that white supremacy should be considered domestic terrorism?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I think, Elizabeth — I mean, I’ve watched Elizabeth Warren, sometimes referred to as “Pocahontas,” with her phony try at an ancestry that she didn’t have. I’ve watched her and, I don’t know, to me, she doesn’t have credibility. It’s possible I’ll have to run against her. But everything she did was a fraud. She got into colleges, she got teaching jobs. She said she was of Indian heritage. It turned out to be a lie. So Elizabeth Warren really has a big lack of credibility.

Q Mr. President, what did you think about the statements from —

THE PRESIDENT: The which?

Q The statements between Tulsi Gabbard and Kamala Harris. Do you think Tulsi really got Kamala (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: I didn’t really — no, I didn’t look. I think that Kamala did not do well last night. I think that — I think Biden did okay. He came through. He came limping through, as I say about Sleepy Joe. He limped right through it. But he got through it. He really did. I think he was okay.

I think Kamala had a bad night last night, I would say. But it’s really boiling down to four or five of them. Let’s face it. I don’t think — I don’t see anybody coming from (inaudible).

Q Do you have a message for Poland on the anniversary of Warsaw Uprising, which is today?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I have a lot of respect for Poland. And, as you know, the people of Poland like me, and I like them. And I’m going to be going to Poland fairly soon. And I know they’re building an installation that — and they’re putting in all of the money — 100 percent of the money. So they’re building something very nice for the United States to have.

Go ahead.

Q On Nancy Pelosi — I’m sorry. Just so I don’t have to yell at you here, if you don’t mind. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — I don’t know if you saw — but she described Jared Kushner as a kind of Baltimore slumlord because he owns property there. Do you think your son-in-law bears any responsibility for those conditions?

THE PRESIDENT: No. I think the responsibility is the people that have run Baltimore for so many years, obviously headed up by Elijah Cummings. They’ve run Baltimore into the ground. We’ve given billions and billions of dollars to Baltimore. The people of Baltimore appreciate what I’ve done for them by bringing this up.

It’s the number one city, proportionately, in the United States on crime. I saw a statistic where it’s worse than Honduras, right now. And I think what the people of Baltimore — I think they really appreciate what I’m doing. The money was stolen or misspent or wasted. And a lot of things happened. A lot of bad things.

But the government, for many years, has been very good to Baltimore. We have to help the people. Elijah Cummings has not helped the people. But maybe at some point we’ll get together and we’ll get it straightened out. But what happened in Baltimore is disgraceful. And it’s not only Baltimore, it’s other Democrat-run cities, and you ought to report on it sometime. Thank you.

Q Mr. President, (inaudible).

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I haven’t seen the (inaudible) at all, but I’ll take a look at them. But I will tell you, the church has loved me and I love them. You know, we’ve got about 84 percent of the vote. And the churches love Donald Trump and I love them.

TRANSCRIPT END 4:06 P.M. EDT

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin returned from two days of talks in Shanghai on Thursday.  After debriefing President Trump on the results the president announced a decision to apply a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese products.

This announcement would answer the question of whether the Chinese were willing to restart discussions from the previous point of contention.  Obviously they are not.

The Wall Street financial/investment class will go bananas.  U.S. based multinationals who have invested massively in Chinese manufacturing are apoplectic.  The ‘Wall Street’ -vs- Main Street battle now enters a new phase of confrontation and adversarialism.

As we have discussed, President Trump consistently implied he did not see how any deal with China is possible unless they were willing to fundamentally restructure their trade position. It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China. Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.

There was always only a very small chance a trade deal with China will be reached. The reforms within the original Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He agreement were antithetical to Beijing. Chairman Xi Jinping and the communist politburo rejected them.

For Beijing the compliance and enforcement sections within the agreement were too severe and did not allow China to retain control over the trade terms.

The agreement was rejected.

President Trump understands Chairman Xi is looking at this as a zero-sum position. As we stated earlier, it’s was not a matter of “if” Trump would apply more tariffs; it was always a matter of “when” Trump would apply the tariffs.

Price inflation is low because manufacturing economies (EU and China) are devaluing their currency, and subsidizing their industries (China), in an effort to avoid Trump’s trade policies (tariffs). Their efforts increase the value of the dollar and we are importing deflation.  As a consequence of those factors, and the high value of the dollar, any tariffs on Chinese imports will not raise consumer prices.

The .25 point lowering of the federal reserve rate did nothing to lower the value of the dollar.  Now is the perfect time to hit China will larger tariffs.  There will be no U.S-China trade deal unless Beijing agrees to the compliance issues.

An excellent discussion between White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro and Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo about the current state of President Trump’s Main Street policy and economy.  The second half of the interview is the best part. Navarro outlines the background of the second quarter GDP result, and he hits the nail on the head. Hi Pete.

As CTH previously highlighted, the two primary drags on the Q2 release are also the most volatile: Export/Import contributions (-.65%), and Inventory contributions (-.86%) [table 2]. However, consumer spending was much stronger than anticipated (+4.3%) showing the internal strength of the U.S. labor market and the impact of wage growth which now exceeds 5.5 percent.  The rebound in Q3 is going to be very, very good.

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Note to Mr. Navarro: Enjoy the winning. Relax, you’re solid. Despite the financial punditry class consistently trying to downbeat the good news; you don’t have to carry the burden of adversarialism. You’re a good warrior; we know.  You don’t have to prove your salt. The American people can see the results, and the entire MAGAnomic team, including you, have our full support. Have some fun.

GO PLACIDLY amid the noise and the haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible, without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.

Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons; they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter, for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals, and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment, it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth.

Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be. And whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.

By Max Ehrmann © 1927
Original text

 

We previously outlined Mr. Zhongtian Liu [HERE] as part of the early 2018 explanation for how China was exploiting the NAFTA loophole as an end-run around tariffs.  Today the Central District of California U.S. Attorney announces his indictment.

LOS ANGELES– A federal grand jury indictment unsealed late Tuesday alleges a complex financial fraud scheme in which a Chinese company exported to the United States huge amounts of aluminum – disguised as “pallets” to avoid customs duties of up to 400 percent – and “sold” the purported pallets to related entities to fraudulently inflate the company’s revenues and deceive investors around the world.

The 53-page indictment alleges that China Zhongwang Holdings Limited, Asia’s largest aluminum extrusion company; Zhongtian Liu, the company’s former president and chairman; and several individual and corporate co-defendants lied to U.S. Customs and Border Protection to avoid paying the United States $1.8 billion in anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) that were imposed in 2011 on certain types of extruded aluminum imported into the United States from China.

The aluminum sold to United States-based companies controlled by Liu were simply aluminum extrusions that were spot-welded together to make them appear to be functional pallets, which would be finished goods not subject to the duties, according to the indictment. In reality, there were no customers for the 2.2 million pallets imported by the Liu-controlled companies between 2011 and 2014, and no pallets were ever sold. (read more)

Photograph of Mr. Liu Zhongtian’s aluminum stockpile hidden in Mexico.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary datayesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.

There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.

As the Wall Street Journal put it:

(Table 6 – BEA Data Release)

(VIA WSJ) […] Recall how liberals blamed “secular stagnation” as the reason worker incomes weren’t growing faster during the latter years of Barack Obama’s Presidency. Yet employee compensation has increased by $150 billion more in the first six months of 2019 than all of 2016.

Compensation increased 42% more during the first two years of the Trump Presidency than in 2015 and 2016. This refutes the claim by liberals that the economy has merely continued on the same trajectory since 2017 as it was before.

The economy barely skirted recession in the final Obama years, and economic policy changed in 2017. Deregulation has unleashed repressed animal spirits, especially in energy. Tax reform has also spurred business investment in new facilities and equipment, which over time should translate into higher worker productivity and wages.

Those reforms are continuing to pay economic dividends despite the damage from Mr. Trump’s trade policies. While Democrats and even some conservatives complain that workers haven’t benefited from tax reform, the evidence suggests otherwise. (read more)

SUMMARY: The U.S. consumer is driving the economy.  The jobs and labor market remains strong.  Wage growth is rising in proportion to the diminished availability of the labor pool. Price inflation is low because manufacturing economies (EU and China) are devaluing their currency, and subsidizing their industries (China), in an effort to avoid Trump’s trade policies (tariffs).  Their efforts increase the value of the dollar and we are importing deflation.

Simultaneously, global manufacturers -multinationals- need access to the U.S. consumer market.   As President Trump applies a series of strategic global trade moves, intended to draw manufacturing back to the U.S., those multinationals are in somewhat of a holding pattern for further investment.  Simply, the multinationals are trying to figure out where to put their investment capital for the highest return.

Example: The U.S. economy is strong, unemployment is low and wage rates up; so if China is a non-option, the profit determination shifts.  Where to manufacture? It might be more profitable for a multinational in either Southeast Asia or North America. The key is which country has a long-term agreement with the U.S.  That’s why the USMCA is critical.

CTH still predicts POTUS Trump will eliminate the uncertainty as soon as the USMCA is ratified.  I suspect President Trump will drop massive tariffs on all Chinese goods.

Think of China like a big lake filled with U.S. economic value. Through his Asian discussions with Vietnam, S Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Japan, et al, President Trump has stealthily built a thin levy, an ASEAN dam of sorts, that will direct the China lake of economic value into Southeast Asia.

Once the USMCA is signed, Trump will blow the dam by triggering the tariffs.  This will move all of the multinationals who are in a ‘holding pattern’, and capital investment will flow fast.   The China exodus will benefit North America (USMCA) and those ASEAN nations who have partnered with Trump and made proactive trade agreements.

Chopper Pressers are the best pressers; and today we get two. One upon departure, and one upon return to the White House from Virginia. [Video Below – Transcript will follow]

Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  Earlier today President Trump held an impromptu press conference as he departed the White House for an event in Virginia.

[Video below – Transcript ADDED]

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[Transcript] – 9:12 A.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: So I just want to tell you the economy is doing fantastically well. We have people over in China right now. We’re negotiating with China. We’ll see what happens. We’re either going to make a great deal or we’re not going to make a deal at all. But a lot of great things are happening, and including with China.

Our country has gone way up in terms of its differential. We’re the number one economy in the world. It’s picked up tremendously in the last three years since I’ve been here. So a lot of great things are happening. A lot of really great things are happening. The economy is through the roof. I guess we’ll hopefully get good decisions from certain branches of government. We’ll see what happens. But we have a lot of good things happening.

We were just speaking with the Department of Commerce, and we have interest in our country like we’ve never had before.

Q Mr. President, do you regret targeting Baltimore?

THE PRESIDENT: No. Baltimore has been very badly mishandled for many years. As you know, Congressman Cummings has been there for a long time. He’s had a very iron hand on it. It’s a corrupt city; there’s no question about it. All you have to do is look at the facts. The government has pumped in, over the years, billions and billions of dollars to no avail — to absolutely no avail.

Baltimore is a — it’s an example of what corrupt government leads to. Billions of dollars have been given, and I feel so sorry for the people of Baltimore. And if they ask me, we will get involved. But we’re already involved from the standpoint that, over many years, billions and billions of dollars have been given to Baltimore. It’s been misspent. It’s been missing. It’s been stolen with a lot of corrupt government. And as you know, Cummings has been in charge.

Now, I will say this: I think that Representative Cummings should take his Oversight Committee and start doing oversight on Baltimore. He’d find out some real things.

Q On China, how did the talks go today? And on the Fed, what should the rate cut be?

THE PRESIDENT: So the talks are moving very well with China, but they were often with China. But China always makes a new deal at the end, or seems to. We’re taking in billions and billions of dollars from China in the form of tariffs. Our people are not paying for it. China reduced their currency. They devalued their currency, and they’re pumping money into the system in order to pay for it.

They had the worst year in 27 years. They’ve had a terrible year because of the tariffs. A lot of companies are moving out of China. You’ve never seen this before. The United States is doing phenomenally well and we’re taking in tens of billions of dollars for — from China.

We’re giving some money to our farmers who have been really targeted by China to do a number on them, and — because they like me. The farmers like me and I love the farmers. And I will say that the farmers are very grateful. The most they’ve ever spent on agricultural product is $16 billion. So when they pulled out, I took just a small part of the money that China is paying us, and I gave it toward the farmers and the farmers are very happy.

Q Is a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed enough for you, sir?

THE PRESIDENT: The Fed moved, in my opinion, far too early and far too severely. It puts me at a — somewhat of a disadvantage. Fortunately, I’ve made the economy so strong that nothing is going to stop us. But the Fed could have made it a lot easier. I would like to see a large cut, and I’d like to see immediately the quantitative tightening stopped. It should be stopped. For them to have done quantitative tightening and also higher interest rates simultaneously, I think, was a big mistake.

I also think that had they not done it — as good as we’ve done, we’ve set a record, as you will tell, as you will say, in the stock market. We have the all-time high in the history of the stock market. I think I would have been 10,000 points higher and I think we would have been in the fours with GDP.

President Obama had zero interest rates; we have normalized interest rates. With zero interest rates, anything happens. And yet we still blew his economy away.

Q Was it a mistake not retaining Janet Yellen?

THE PRESIDENT: I don’t talk about that. I just — I’m very disappointed in the Fed. I think they acted too quickly by far. And I think I’ve been proven right. People have said I was right; they were wrong. The Fed is often wrong. The Fed is often wrong.

Q (Inaudible) Washington Post op-ed called Mitch McConnell a “Russian asset.”

THE PRESIDENT: The Washington Post called Mitch McConnell what?

Q A Russian asset.

THE PRESIDENT: I think the Washington Post is the Russian asset, by comparison. Mitch McConnell loves our country. He’s done a great job. We’re trying to pass an infrastructure bill. It’s being written up right now, as we speak, for our highways and our roadways.

Mitch McConnell has got more judges than probably any — I mean, in all fairness, with my help. But at the combination, we’ve got up — we’re going to be up very soon to 179 federal judges. Nobody has ever seen anything like that. And other than George Washington, we’ll end up having the highest percentage of judges put on the court and it’s going to be a legacy.

Mitch McConnell is a man that knows less about Russia and Russia’s influence than even Donald Trump. And I know nothing.

So I think it’s a horrible thing when a paper — which is really just a paper for the benefit of Amazon — the Washington Post is fake news, just like the New York Times is fake news. It’s put there for the benefit — the Washington Post — of Amazon. That’s my opinion. And I think it’s a disgrace.

And if they actually said that, I didn’t read it. If they actually said that — that Mitch McConnell is an asset of Russia — they ought to be ashamed of themselves and they ought to apologize.

Q Are you going to watch the Democratic debate tomorrow night? And do you have a sense yet, in your gut, as to who your likely opponent will be in 2020?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I think right now — I am watching — I think right now it will be Sleepy Joe. I think. I feel he’ll limp across the line. That’s what I think.

So what I think doesn’t mean anything, but I know the other people. I know him. I think he’s off his game by a lot, but I think — personally, I think it’s going to be Sleepy Joe.

Q Mr. President, do you think you’re alienating voters when you tweet at the Squad and at Congressman Cummings?

THE PRESIDENT: No, I think I’m helping myself because I’m pointing out the tremendous corruption that’s taken place in Baltimore and other Democratic-run cities. All you have to do is look at the past mayors in Baltimore — see what happened. No, I think I’m helping myself.

And I’ll tell you what: The White House and myself — in letters and emails and phone calls — have received more phone calls than I think on any other subject, of people from Baltimore and other cities corruptly run by Democrats, thanking me for getting involved. Those people are living in hell in Baltimore. They’re largely African American. We have a large African American population and they really appreciate what I’m doing and they’ve let me know it. They really appreciate it.

And, by the way, the numbers just came out. Unemployment for African Americans is the lowest it’s been. The best numbers — meaning, in the history of our country. The lowest in the history of our country.

But people have called from Baltimore thanking me so much, because all that money that’s been spent over 20 years has been stolen and wasted by people like Elijah Cummings.

Q Do you want a free trade agreement with Brazil?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I have a great relationship with Brazil. I have a fantastic relationship with your President. And he’s a great gentleman. He was here, as you know. In fact, they say the “Trump of Brazil.” I like that. That’s a compliment.

And, by the way, I think he’s doing a great job. It’s a tough job, but I think your President is doing a fantastic job. He’s a wonderful man with a wonderful family.

Q And you will discuss free trade agreement?

THE PRESIDENT: Yeah, we’re going to work on a free trade agreement with Brazil. Brazil is a big trading partner. They charge us a lot of tariffs, but other than that we love the relationship.

Q Are you concerned about the health of Russian opposition leader —

THE PRESIDENT: The what?

Q The Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, who apparently might’ve been poisoned while in prison. Have you heard about that?

THE PRESIDENT: I don’t — I’ve heard about it. I don’t know about it, but I’ll find out about it. This is new. I heard about it last night.

Q Are you concerned more about the Ratcliffe nomination? You have Democrats and Republicans who say a Trump loyalist should not be in a DNI position.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, John Ratcliffe is a brilliant man. He is a wonderful person. I spoke to him long before about this — long before, months ago. I spoke to him long before the Mueller fiasco. That was a fiasco. I think probably nobody in the history of Capitol Hill has embarrassed themselves like what Mueller did to himself and to the Democrats.

But John Ratcliffe — I spoke to him about this for a long time. He’s a very talented guy. He’s a strong man. It’s what we need in that position.

Q More and more people are calling you “racist.” Does that bother you?

THE PRESIDENT: I am the least racist person there is anywhere in the world. When con men — who I’ve known almost — you know, almost all my business life, because I had to deal with him, unfortunately, in New York. But I got along with him — Al Sharpton. Now, he’s a racist. He’s a racist. But when people — when people —

Q Racist against who?

THE PRESIDENT: Let me explain it to you. What I’ve done for African Americans in two and a half years, no President has been able to do anything like it. Unemployment at the lowest level in the history of our country for African Americans — nobody can beat that. You look at poverty levels, they’re doing better than they’ve ever done before. So many things: Opportunity Zones, criminal justice reform. President Obama couldn’t get it done. It was done.

Really, the biggest beneficiary, probably, is African Americans. I got criminal justice reform done. President Obama couldn’t get it done. No other President was able to get it done. What I’ve done for African Americans, no President, I would say, has done.

Now, I’ll say this: They are so happy — because I get the calls. They are so happy at what I have been able to do in Baltimore and other Democratic-run, corrupt cities. The money has been stolen — what they’ve done. It’s been wasted and it’s been stolen — billions and billions of dollars. And the African American community is so thankful. They’ve called me and they said, “Finally, somebody is telling the truth.”

Q Mr. President, do you think there will be a trade deal with China before November of 2020?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I think the biggest problem to a trade deal is China would love to wait and just hope — they hope it’s not going to happen. I hope. But they would just love if I got defeated so they could deal with somebody like Elizabeth Warren or Sleepy Joe Biden or any of these people because then they’d be allowed and able to continue to rip off our country like they’ve been doing for the last 30 years.

China has been taking out hundreds of billions of dollars a year with our country. And now what I’ve done with the tariffs is — number one, they had the worst year they’ve had in 27 years, yesterday — the Wall Street Journal. The worst year in 27 years. Companies are leaving China by the thousands, and their prices are coming down.

And I will tell you this: China is dying to make a deal with me. But whether or not I’ll do it — it’s up to me; it’s not up to them.

Q What can you get China to give you this week? Just this week, what do you think you can get China to give you in the negotiations?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I think China is willing to give up a lot. But I — that doesn’t mean I’m willing to accept it. I think if China had their wish, they’d wait until after the election, they’ll pray that Trump loses, and then they’ll make a deal with a stiff — somebody that doesn’t know what they’re doing — like Obama and Biden, like all of the Presidents before. Because what they’ve done is they’ve just picked our pockets as a nation. That’s not happening with Trump.

Q On Virginia — the black Virginia lawmakers are boycotting your event today.

THE PRESIDENT: That’s okay.

Q What do you say to them? I mean, they’re offended by your remarks.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I think if that’s the case, I’d be shocked. But if that’s the case, they’re fighting against their people because the African American people have been calling the White House. They have never been so happy as what a President has done. Not only the lowest unemployment in history for African Americans; not only Opportunity Zones for — really, the biggest beneficiary are the inner cities; and not only criminal justice reform. But they’re so happy that I pointed out the corrupt politics of Baltimore. It’s filthy dirty. It’s so horrible. And they are happy as hell.

So, you may have a couple of politicians boycott, but it’s all a fix. It’s all a fix. The fact is African American people love the job I’m doing because I’m working for them. I’m not working for the politicians.

Q Mr. President, do you believe that congressional oversight, is (inaudible), in your case?

THE PRESIDENT: Oh, absolutely. It’s — what he should do — what Elijah Cummings should do is he should take his Oversight Committee, bring them down to Baltimore, and invest all of it, and really study the billions and billions of dollars that’s been stolen. It’s been wasted; it’s been stolen. They ought to take that beautiful waste of an oversight committee, go down to Baltimore and other Democratic-run cities, and take a look. See if you can find the billions that have been stolen.

Q Is your goal in North Korea simply containment — just a status quo?

THE PRESIDENT: My relationship with Kim Jong Un is a very good one, as I’m sure you’ve seen.

We’ll see what happens. I can’t tell you what’s going to happen. I know one thing: that if my opponent was President — if she won — you would be in a major war right now with North Korea. And we are nowhere close.

So we’ll see. I have a good relationship with him. I like him; he likes me. We’ll see what happens.

Q Mr. President, are you willing to visit Baltimore to go see — are you willing to visit Baltimore and go tour it today?

THE PRESIDENT: At the right time, I’ll visit.

But the people of Baltimore are very thankful — they have let us know by the thousands of people — because of the fact that finally somebody is pointing out how corrupt Baltimore is, how billions and billions of dollars have been stolen. And the ones that like it the best — what I’m doing — are African American voters. Those are the ones.

Thank you.

END 9:29 A.M. EDT

Good interview between Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo and former White House trade official Clete Willems.  Essentially Willems confirms the current outlook of the Trump administration that a deal with China is not likely in the short-term; however, Willems is optimistic of the probability in the longer term (as China realizes consequences).