Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Feb 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION #1`: Marty,
At the October 2019 WEC you made some eerily prescient statements about two things, first, if the market were to make a low going into the January 2020 period, that might be the bottom; or, if a high were made then(it did), then something profound would appear to happen in the February March time period…with March being the key month…we know how things played out…
Now, for some time, you have stated something is breaking come the May time period…evening stating in the blog to watch out for May 8…not knowing what could happen and impacting so many markets and things like Gold, what is your gut telling you…is this another lockdown, a new war, a failure of the vaccines resulting in more deaths and setbacks for the entire vaccination process….or, is it something political, perhaps having to do with Biden being incapacitated and there being a need for his replacement, at least on a temporary basis, with Harris? Or…is there something happening in Europe with riots or they’re canceling their currency?
ANSWER #1: I will address the May crisis that seems to be shaping up in the update for the WEC 2020 and in an overview in the Private Blog. Because we have been probably the largest institutional adviser internationally, I have always been the one they shoot the arrows at like the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis because the London FT put out our forecast that Russia would collapse. They also blamed me for the takeover boom of the ’80 because I was running around the globe showing these charts and advised many of the takeover players like Alan Bond (1938 – 2015), Lawrence James (Larry) Adler (1931-1988), Michael R. H. Holmes à Court (1937 – 1990), just to mention a few. Essentially, I taught them how to turn debt into a performing asset whereby we would borrow in one currency to buy assets in another.
I am mindful that the way people think is that someone with influence can somehow make a trend. That is just absurd. The best any such influence is with respect to volatility. I have studied markets intensely. NEVER is there any such evidence of reversing a bear or bull market BECAUSE everything is connected. Any attempt to manipulate an individual market against its trend will be met by instant arbitrage. Take the GameStop and silver calls on Reddit. In both cases our Computer was projecting a high was in the formation and silver peaked precisely on our target week for its Benchmark. That demonstrates that influence cannot alter the trend in anything! PERIOD! Nevertheless, people do not care about what is right or wrong. If they lose money, they blame someone else to pretend it was not their mistake.
QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong, I am a young widow with my husband having died of Covid only 6 months ago. I lost a lot of my income when my husband passed with no life insurance because we couldn’t afford it with his health issues. I do have a mortgage -a house with 16 acres and vehicle loan, my only debts for now, and I am able to pay bills because my younger son still lives with me and has agreed to split the bills with me where I was only charging him rent before. He is paying a lot more now. In any case, between the two of us we have less than $50,000 in cash, most of it being his. We have no other investments, IRA’s, 401K’s, nothing. That’s partly because my husband was not good with money. In any case some of our cash is in the bank and some we keep at home.
I am very concerned about the soon collapse of the dollar and don’t want to lose what little we have. I do receive a small veteran’s surviving spouse pay which is enough for my large house payment. If you were me, what would you do with your finances? Are there safer ways to reserve the money and still use it to pay bills? If you cannot answer this question or don’t have time, will you please direct me somewhere I can get advice. Can you direct me to a website or person. Unfortunately, I do not have enough of an income to pay for an advisor so just asking for any advice at this time please?
ANSWER #2: I cannot recommend people to manage your money. Far too many make decisions emotionally and therein present another variable that you can lose everything despite being correct. The dollar is NOT going to collapse. That is just nonsense. It will decline in purchasing value into 2024 and near-term you may want to wait until May/June. Additionally, by law, I am not allowed to provide personal guided advice because the government cannot distinguish between honest advice and a broker trying to sell you something.
That said, we try to keep the Private Blog entry point for the average person at just $15 a month. That way any advice is public and not “personal” so it is OK. In general, we are looking at an inflationary wave built upon shortages. So your cash will buy less into 2024. The complications will come from the Biden Administration in its desperate hunt for cash through taxation and escalating regulation. This may impact markets in the future just as their watchful eye over the gold trade has done more to keep gold in check than any manipulation conspiracy theory.
QUESTION #3: Mr. Armstrong :
I purchased the Canada 2021 report very insightful analysis you wrote it has a bit of everything which makes it didactic to read. Interesting forecast for Canada’s economy it seems a lot of challenges ahead to tell you the truth I did not know Canada is a world leader in debt maybe I am been ignorant in thinking because real state market is doing very well then that equalize into a stable healthy economy I am always confused by that also there are rumours that Trudeau will call for a spring election he seems to be certain that all the money he is been handing out to voters will pay off and he will get a majority this time will see it is true regarding of elections or not the damage to every aspect of society is already done after almost a year in continuous lockdowns.
I like what a reader wrote today (XRP&THE RISE OF BARTER)he said Martin YOU WERE BORN TO LIVE THROUGH THIS MOMENT very profound don’t you agree you are where you are because is destined to be
I can not fail to mention those naughty coins in the same post I would have never imagined there were Roman prostitute tokens really! those Roman were quite something else
Have a nice Friday evening handsome Armstrong
ANSWER #3: I will put out the forecast for the Canadian election on the Private Blog. We have blocked that from being searched by Google and since we are so well read in Canada, I certainly do not want our forecast to be used by Trudeau to make a decision to call an election or not. What is most interesting is that Trudeau lost seats in 2019 as the conservatives won, but not enough to take the majority.
As far as the Roman prostitute tokens go, they are the precise example of how the private sector will move to counter-act government regulation. Put up a traffic light after a sideroad that would allow people to skirt around it, and they will circumvent the traffic light. This is just human nature whereas those in power wrongly think that they can just a law and end some practice or vice. It will never happen and 6,000 years of recorded history stands as a witness that government will fail every time. If that were not true, we would still be reading Sanskrit and speaking Babylonian.
As for being born to live through this, it certainly seems to be the case. I personally would really prefer to leave. They tortured me to try to get me to comply with their demands and I stood my ground. But in the process, I discovered something. Someone can threaten to kill you all the time. Eventually, you pass through the hole in the needle to the other side. Once you do and you surrender any fear of death, you win. You have disarmed them for they can no longer hurt you. It becomes a game.
Me Visiting the Cell where Socrates Died in Athens
There are two instances in my life that make me concede that perhaps I was “BORN TO LIVE THROUGH THIS MOMENT” for I had named my computer Socrates long before my confrontation with the enemy that control New York. I survived even an attempt on my life after being in a coma for about a week or so (I don’t remember how long) to the dismay of my honorable captors. I was always impressed with the story of Socrates and how the Oracle at Delphi had said he was the smartest man in all of Greece. He set out to prove the Oracle wrong, but provide it to be correct. In the process, the elite hated Socrates and put him on trial for offending the gods and corrupting the youth with his ideas. His statement before the court when sentenced to death is what inspired me through my ordeal.
“[T]here is great reason to hope that death is a good, for one of two things: – either death is a state of nothingness and utter unconsciousness, or, as men say, there is a change and migration of the soul from this world to another. Now if you suppose that there is no consciousness, but a sleep like the sleep of him who is undisturbed even by the sight of dreams, death will be an unspeakable gain. For if a person were to select the night in which his sleep was undisturbed even by dreams, and were to compare with this the other days and nights of his life, and then were to tell us how many days and nights he had passed in the course of his life better and more pleasantly than this one, I think that any man, I will not say a private man, but even the great king, will not find many such days or nights, when compared with the others. Now if death is like this, I say that to die is gain; for eternity is then only a single night.
But if death is the journey to another place, and there, as men say, all the dead are, what good, O my friends and judges, can be greater than this? If indeed when the pilgrim arrives in the world below, he is delivered from the professors of justice in this world, and finds the true judges who are said to give judgment there, Minos and Rhadamanthus and Aeacus and Triptolemus, and other sons of God who were righteous in their own life, that pilgrimage will be worth making. What would not a man give if he might converse with Orpheus and Musaeus and Hesiod and Homer? Nay, if this be true, let me die again and again. I, too, shall have a wonderful interest in a place where I can converse with Palamedes, and Ajax the son of Telamon, and other heroes of old, who have suffered death through an unjust judgment; and there will be no small pleasure, as I think, in comparing my own sufferings with theirs. Above all, I shall be able to continue my search into true and false knowledge; as in this world, so also in that; I shall find out who is wise, and who pretends to be wise, and is not. What would not a man give, O judges, to be able to examine the leader of the great Trojan expedition; or Odysseus or Sisyphus, or numberless others, men and women too! What infinite delight would there be in conversing with them and asking them questions! For in that world they do not put a man to death for this; certainly not. For besides being happier in that world than in this, they will be immortal, if what is said is true.”
The other strange piece of fate was the fact that I grew up at 314 South Lippincott Ave, Maple Shade, New Jersey. So I was raised in a house with the street address being Pi.
I wrote that I DID NOT want to become a lawyer because of an incident when I was in high school whereby as students we were being harassed by the police on the direction of the mayor. He did not like the kids hanging at a sub shop next to his store so he used the police for personal gain. He directed the police to hand out parking tickets to drive us away. I went to check the law using my father’s law books on the legality of the signs. Low and behold, it required the town to place parking signs about 20 feet apart and so many feet up from the crown of the road. They did not comply. So I told everyone to sit on the hoods of their cars, we would take the tickets, I had this. When they did the same with stop signs, I rose to the cause and defended everyone in court again. I won both times and the judge admonished me and said he thought I was practicing law without a license. I responded I was not charging anyone. He came back and said he was calling my father. The town of Maple Shade had to completely redo all the signs. When I got home, the judge had indeed called my father. My father said to stop using his law books to defend my friends. From that moment on, my interest in being a lawyer was shattered. So I don’t know, perhaps there was something in the water that just made you want to stand up and fight for civil rights. Because also in another strange twist, there use to be a bar on the edge of town and that was where Martin Luther King was denied service and he said that is when he got the inspiration to lead his march.
So I do not know, but a lot of people have told me this was my destiny. Perhaps. Time will tell.
QUESTION #4: Is CDC admitting masks are ineffective if CDC is now telling us 2 masks are needed? I wish my fellow Americans would see this, if masks worked, then why the need for 2? Connect the dots people, it’s very simple math.
Uranium – global warming driven by nuclear industry, a post of yours a few years ago. Now great reset for climate change. How bullish should I be uranium miners & uranium? Might have already missed lows as there’s a Reddit sub/uraniumsqueeze and cameco 2x since Dec, but still feels like this trade has major upside if this is solution for global warming agenda?
ANSWER #4: Yes, it is well known that studies from the 1918 Spanish flu demonstrated that masks did not work. The Washington Post even said that masks were useless. This is all about scare tactics for political purposes to impose the Great Reset completely altering the economy.
As for Uranium, it peaked with the ECM in 2007 on schedule, and it bottomed 8.6 years later in 2016 also on the cyclical schedule. We are showing that a quarter closing above $35 will reignite the bull market. This is most likely caused by colder weather ahead and the fact the renewable energy such as solar panels and wind turbines do not help in ice and snowstorms. When you need heat the most is when you will freeze the most.