Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appears with Fox Business Maria Bartiromo for an extended interview on multiple current economic aspects. Economic Security is National Security. There are three segments.

Secretary Mnuchin discusses: the agreement between President Trump and Chairman Xi for immediate shifts within the U.S-China trade relationship, and the anticipated immediate deliverables; the USMCA agreement; the auto industry and the overall economy.

Segment two and three below:

In segment two Secretary Mnuchin discusses the auto industry. Worth noting today is the day when the German auto leaders are meeting at the White House. Likely POTUS Trump wants to know how they intend to respond to the 75% rule of origin within the USMCA.

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In segment three Secretary Mnuchin discusses the overall economy and the future outlook.

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Within the dynamic of the U.S -vs- China trade confrontation, CTH noted the Wall Street (globalist) multinationals would likely go bananas.  There are trillions at stake and President Trump is confronting three decades of financial influence from the corporate lobbyists.   To the angst of Wall Street, POTUS Trump tweets the dynamic:

President Trump has been brutally consistent for more than three decades on his intent and purpose with the Chinese.  President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.

Additionally, while carrying out the objectives of the confrontation, Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross, Ambassador Lighthizer and adviser Navarro are well aware of Beijing’s panda mask; POTUS Trump will never let them forget about it.

Some call it ‘Globalism vs Nationalism’, at other times it is best described as “Wall Street -vs- Main Street”; however, the overarching bigger picture is a battle over economics and the financial power structures that oppose President Trump.

CTH has often said ‘everything is about the economics’, because it is. Ask the ‘why’ question five times to any issue and you will find the root issue is money.  Power, greed and control, it is all about the money and the economics.

Opposition to President Trump’s singularly unique and transformational reset of the U.S. economic system boils down to a battle against the ‘Big Club’.

Every political confrontation is a move within this dynamic. The structural battle is not based on party affiliation, it is based on control and ownership of economics. This confrontation represents the biggest challenge; a brief example:

Hundreds of millions were spent on the 2018 election by owners within the ‘Big Club’; at a surface level those expenditures are discussed by punditry thus: “we were outspent” (insert Kevin McCarthy and/or Ronnda McDaniel here). But if you have followed the challenge more closely, over the course of years/decades, you have a more substantive understanding of the dynamic.

Billionaires on one side of the UniParty spend hundreds-of-millions in opposition to the MAGA agenda. That agenda, that economic agenda, is the existential threat to the Big Club’s grip on power.

Here’s the critical aspect: When it comes to the economics, there are no big spending billionaires on the nationalist side of the equation. The interests of Wall Street Democrats and Wall Street Republicans are based on globalism; Wall Street not Main Street.

In the ‘globalist’ multinational, Wall Street dynamic, the Big Club DNC donor base and the Big Club RNC donor base have mutual self interests.  Within this interest, President Trump is their unified opposition.

The only defeating mechanism that can structurally override this dynamic is an independent Billionaire and a massive amount of tax-paying small donors, ordinary middle-Americans, who can supplement the financial arsenal.   Think back to 2015/2016, and you will see the single-successful-reference for this reality at work.

Everything is about the economics.

The Big Club opposition to President Trump is based on financial best-interest.  That opposition is not bound to a political party ideology.  It is an ideology based on economics.  In essence, this is a structural economic battle that is being waged politically.

Decades of financial policy were intentionally structured to the benefit of the BIG CLUB and the multinational Wall Street alliance represented by U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue.  This is not a Republican -vs- Democrat issue; this is a larger confrontation between those who hold financial power and a singular person, President Donald Trump, who is determined to remove that grip.

In headlines: Big Club board member Alan Greenspan declares that President Trump’s tariff policies are “insane” [link].  This expression by Greenspan is directly representative everything noted above.

However, conversely, the outcome of those MAGA tariff policies are EXACTLY what we said they would be.  The BLS released information quantifying inflation across all sectors (emphasis mine).

Food – The food index declined 0.1 percent in October as the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent and the index for food away from home rose 0.1 percent. Three of the six major grocery store food group indexes declined in October. The fruits and vegetables index fell 0.7 percent in October, its third consecutive decline.

The index for fresh fruits fell 1.8 percent, while the fresh vegetables index increased 0.3 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products fell 0.6 percent, and the index for dairy and related products declined 0.4 percent. (link)

Notice how the prices for food are dropping as the MAGAnomic trade policies of President Trump are being carried out.

Notice how the timing of the decline is directly related to the tariff actions, and the counter-actions, by the targeted countries.

President Trump is fracturing the multinational corporate ‘controlled market’, and his trade policies are beginning to reconstitute supply and demand pricing in a nationalist market.

This inflation data, specifically within the fastest sector to show indicators (most perishable = fastest turnover) highlights what we have been explaining for years:

[…] The biggest lie in modern economics, willingly spread and maintained by corporate media, is that a system of global markets still exists.

It doesn’t.

Every element of global economic trade is controlled and exploited by massive institutions, multinational banks and multinational corporations. Institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and World Bank control trillions of dollars in economic activity. Underneath that economic activity there are people who hold the reigns of power over the outcomes. These individuals and groups are the stakeholders in direct opposition to principles of national economics. (cont.)

The process of charging the U.S. consumer more for a product, that under normal national market conditions would cost less, is a process called exfiltration of wealth.

It is never discussed.

To control the market price some contracted product may even be secured and shipped with the intent to allow it to sit idle (or rot). It’s all about controlling the price and maximizing the profit equation. To gain the same $1 profit a widget multinational might have to sell 20 widgets in El-Salvador (.25¢ each), or two widgets in the U.S. ($2.50/each).

Think of the process like the historic reference of OPEC (Oil Producing Economic Countries). Only in the modern era massive corporations are playing the role of OPEC and it’s not oil being controlled, it’s almost everything, including food.

Yes, President Trump, the man and his policy team, is an existential threat to the elitist hierarchy of things well beyond the borders of the DC Swamp. In the era of explaining the complex it’s a planetary economic reset almost too massive and consequential to encapsulate in words.

There are massive international corporate and financial interests who are inherently at risk from President Trump’s “America-First” economic and trade platform. Believe it or not, President Trump is up against an entire world economic establishment.

President Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale discusses how the campaign used social media to break through the firewall of MSM control.  Additionally, Parscale confronts the reason why the approach is needed in an era where MSM gatekeepers attempt to manipulate the type of information.

Within the interview Brad Parscale directly confronts the MSM gate-keeping mindset, as advanced by an interviewer who is ideologically predisposed to support control over any content he disagrees with.  The result is a lengthy but very interesting interview.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their manufacturing review today highlighting continued expansion of the underlying economy.  The results today from within the overall manufacturing industry emphasize the 27th consecutive month of growth…. and a future-view that seems to be predicting much more.  Much more!

ISM Release […] Manufacturing expanded in November, as the PMI^® registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. “This indicates growth in manufacturing for the 27th consecutive month, led by strong new orders, production output and continued slowing supplier delivery performance,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. (more)

Okay CTH, so take the business wonk-speak out of this – what does it mean?

Here’s the summary: Manufacturers are increasing new orders (making more stuff). Production outputs and employment within the manufacturing sector are still growing. Suppliers are still having a tough time filling material orders, but they are finding new and innovative ways to speed up shipments of raw material. However, despite the speed (increased efficiency in delivering the raw material), the backlog of requests is still growing (new orders exceed supply chain). Customer inventories are too low (hence the backlog for new stuff). Inflationary pressure still exists, but the rate of price growth is slowing (increased supplier efficiency). Manufacturing exports and imports are growing. The economy is expanding.

The story within the manufacturing sector is the story within the middle-class U.S. economy.  This is MAGAnomics at work.

The bad news is, if you can call it bad news, that our America-First economy is so strong we are struggling to produce, secure and ship enough stuff to fuel the underlying demand.  Every nation wishes they had this problem.

The manufacturing sector is trying to find ways to produce more stuff, as the infrastructure for producing more stuff is not yet ready.  When the new production capacity (prior investment) comes on-line, it will be easier to make more stuff.

“Efficiency Drivers” – You are seeing this in a few different ways.  [Transport] Think about tractor-trailers (18 wheel big rigs) on the roads; you are seeing more dual-trailers being hauled.  This is a way to ship more stuff, quicker.  Additionally, Trump’s cabinet is pushing the economic gas pedal with DOT Secretary Elaine Chao allowing younger (18-year-old) apprentice truck haulers; to help fill the insatiable need for truck drivers etc.

The manufacturing expansion shows up in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics production efficiency third quarter report known as “Productivity”.

BEA – Q3 […] Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2 percent during the third quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (more)

Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.

If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time.  Your productivity, measured in the last four loaves, is higher.

Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation.  Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.

From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%.  However, in the third quarter of 2018 productivity was strong at 2.2% [Q2 productivity 2.9%].  That means total business output increased significantly as more product was demanded from within the business operation.  Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.

Improved gains in efficiency/productivity (more bread needed) supports faster economic growth without generating higher inflation; no need to raise prices because your cost to make each loaf of bread decreases the more you make.  Higher sales and lower per unit cost means more profit for the bread-maker at the same price.  No need to raise prices.  Without inflation, there should be no motive for the Fed to raise interest-rates.

Increases in productivity generally means the economy is generating more stuff.  The more stuff generated the higher the value of all economic activity; this increases GDP growth.

When we see higher productivity in direct alignment with GDP increases, the increased production indicates sustainable GDP growth.

We made 4.1 percent more stuff, and only worked 1.8 percent longer. The net is a 2.2 percent productivity increase:

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, as output increased 3.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.9 percent. Productivity increased 1.5 percent in the durable manufacturing sector, as output rose 4.9 percent and hours worked increased 3.4 percent. Over the last four quarters, total manufacturing sector productivity increased 1.3 percent, as output increased 3.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.1 percent. Unit labor costs in manufacturing increased 0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2018 and increased 0.9 percent from the same quarter a year ago. (link)

So what do we have?  Low inflation; expanding employment opportunity; record low unemployment; and rising wages – meaning more money in your pocket.

These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans. Prices for durable goods are stable, and wage growth is exceeding inflation. That means more disposable income in the middle-class…. which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.

This creates a situation where the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage within tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.

That is economic nationalism.

That my friends is MAGAnomics.

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2:35 PM – Dec 3, 2018

Sec. Wilbur Ross

✔ @SecretaryRoss

Pleased to join @IvankaTrump, @BetsyDeVosED, @SecretaryAcosta and Swiss Economics Minister @_BR_JSA at today’s MOU signing on #apprenticeships. This agreement provides an opportunity for the U.S. to apply on a broad scale the best practices from the Swiss apprenticeship system.

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1:43 PM – Dec 3, 2018

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses some of the key specifics within the dinner table conversation between President Trump and Chairman Xi.  [*note* at the very end of this briefing, Kudlow is asked about the German auto visit tomorrow]

President Trump has been brutally consistent for more than three decades on his intent and purpose with the Chinese.  President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.  Additionally, while carrying out the objectives of the confrontation, Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross, Ambassador Lighthizer and adviser Navarro are well aware of Beijing’s panda mask; POTUS Trump will never let them forget about it.

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With a full quarter of trade data to analyze the impacts, the Chinese tariff results are now measurable.  A multinational group studying the outcome (full pdf), identified that approximately 4.5% of the current tariff impact is being carried by American consumers.  The overwhelming cost of the tariff is being paid (20.5% absorbed) by Chinese producers.

There is no doubt in my mind that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. President Trump takes strategic messaging toward the people of China very importantly. President Trump has, very publicly, complimented the friendship he feels toward President Xi Jinping; and praises Chairman Xi for his character, strength and purposeful leadership. Trump knows how to play their panda/dragon games.

In June and July last year it became obvious President Trump was going to initiate a full-frontal geopolitical confrontation with China based on their ambitions for economic conquest.  We labeled the confrontation: Eagle -vs- Red Dragon.

Specifically around: intellectual property theft; massive U.S. trade imbalances; imposed tariffs, and ridiculous non-tariff barriers put in place by China, we anticipated the conflict would eventually force Beijing to drop the Panda mask and expose their economic intentions.  Additionally there was clarity within President Trump’s approach for any observer who was willing to accept the history of Mr. Trump’s views on the larger issues. In short, POTUS Trump will not back down.

In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices.  [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.  However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up.

Due to the severity of communist ideology, and the intransigence of China to make any modification to their global economic plans, Chairman Xi Jinping made the strategic decision to elevate the confrontation in full Red Dragon mode.  The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress.  The 301 review of China was pulled back off the shelf in August 2018, and President Trump began executing his trade-war strategy.

When President Trump and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, in combination with Round #1 tariffs on imported Chinese products, the Wall Street financial media went bananas with dire predictions of inflation.

However, in September, October and November the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the August and Sept measures of inflation in consumer goods.  Despite the doom-and-gloom predictions from the self-interested multinationals, the inflation rate is still below 0.2% the same result as July ’18.  Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, is hovering between 0.1% and 0.2% overall.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 250,000 in October, following an average monthly gain of 211,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job growth occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Low inflation; expanding employment opportunity; low unemployment; and rising wages.

These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans.  Prices for durable goods are stable and wage growth is exceeding inflation.  That means more disposable income in the middle-class…. which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.

This creates a situation where the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage within tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.

President Trump’s economic policy cabinet is the most effective group of individuals every assembled in modern U.S. history; arguably in all of U.S. history.   The economic policy plans are working exactly as projected; and, in combination with the domestic economic strength, this empowers President Trump’s international engagements with a stunning amount of influence and leverage.

Economic Security is National Security.  We are seeing this multidimensional truth being carried out for the first time in our lifetimes, thanks to a blue-collar billionaire.

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One of the less discussed aspects to President Trump’s economic cabinet is the careful selection of specific members who operate above the financial influence of ‘The Big Club’. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are two key positions able to focus on economic nationalism without worrying about undue influence from the globalist lobbying pressure of Tom Donohue and the U.S. CoC.

The baseline of financial independence, and disconnect from self-interest, is unique in our lifetime; and allows the resulting execution of economic policy to focus, very deliberately, on America First objectives.  Secretary Mnuchin discusses the China confrontation:

A lengthy interview (recently released) between Greta Van Susteren and President Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Argentina.  The topics include: the USMCA trade agreement; the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; overall global trade; issues within the global climate change economy; Brexit, China, the U.S. economy and immigration.

As most CTH readers are aware MAGAnomic policy, economic nationalism, is the largest focus of President Trump.  Beyond all other issues, this is the POTUS priority. Within this interview the president walks through the geopolitical issues and interests for the U.S. economy.  Well worth watching:

Too funny… this is what we would call a win/win.   President Trump delivering remarks to the media aboard Air Force One on the flight back to the U.S.

(Via Associated Press)  President Donald Trump says he will shortly be providing formal notice to Congress that he will terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement, giving lawmakers six months to approve the replacement he recently signed.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One while returning to Washington from Argentina, Trump says: “I will be formally terminating NAFTA shortly.”

Seeking to gain leverage with skeptical lawmakers to approve the revised trade pact, Trump says Congress “will have a choice” as it considers the agreement he signed with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Friday during the Group of 20 summit.

He says they can choose between the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or “pre-NAFTA, which works very well.”

Trump has made renegotiating NAFTA a centerpiece of his presidency.  (link)

The USMCA is structurally more beneficial to the U.S. and Mexico than Canada.

Factually, it was the U.S. and Mexico who wrote the agreement, and Canada joined in only to mitigate their losses after the majority growth architecture was constructed.  There is almost nothing inside the USMCA agreement which structurally expands the Canadian economy; it is a very weird trade-dynamic.

It was the exploitative nature of the NAFTA construct that benefited Canada and Mexico to the detriment of the United States.  As a result, President Trump is OK with the final USMCA result which removes the majority of the parasitic benefits; and he is ok with no USMCA and no NAFTA, and a return to pre-NAFTA trade structures.

Like NAFTA the USMCA is a “trade agreement”, with various opt-out initiatives for any party; it is not a trade “treaty” – and therefore only requires a simple majority vote.

President Trump and USTR Lighthizer really have created a Win/Win.

…”He says [congress] can choose between the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or “pre-NAFTA, which works very well.””..

Damnedest thing ever.

You could hope it passes; or hope it fails – the end result is similar.

Statement from the White House Press Secretary Regarding The President’s Working Dinner With China:

“The President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, and President Xi Jinping of China, have just concluded what both have said was a “highly successful meeting” between themselves and their most senior representatives in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Very importantly, President Xi, in a wonderful humanitarian gesture, has agreed to designate Fentanyl as a Controlled Substance, meaning that people selling Fentanyl to the United States will be subject to China’s maximum penalty under the law.

On Trade, President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10% rate, and not raise it to 25% at this time. China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.

President Trump and President Xi have agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10% tariffs will be raised to 25%.

It was also agreed that great progress has been made with respect to North Korea and that President Trump, together with President Xi, will strive, along with Chairman Kim Jong Un, to see a nuclear free Korean Peninsula. President Trump expressed his friendship and respect for Chairman Kim.

President Xi also stated that he is open to approving the previously unapproved Qualcomm-NXP deal should it again be presented to him.

President Trump stated:

“This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China. It is my great honor to be working with President Xi.”  (Link)

The U.S. delegation headed by President Trump and the Chinese delegation headed by Chairman Xi Jinping attended a much anticipated bilateral dinner at the conclusion of the G20 summit in Argentina.  The dinner lasted for two and a half hours:

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Immediately following the dinner the U.S. delegation went straight to Airforce-One for the flight home.

(Reuters) […] With the United States and China locked in an economic dispute that has unnerved global financial markets and weighed on the world economy, Trump and Xi sat down with their aides for a working dinner at the conclusion of a two-day gathering of world leaders in Buenos Aires.

Trump told Xi at the start of the meeting he hoped they would achieve “something great” on trade for both countries. The leaders finished their talks after about 2-1/2 hours and Trump departed for his scheduled flight back to Washington.

While neither side issued any immediate statements on the outcome, White House chief economist Larry Kudlow told reporters as he boarded Air Force One that the talks went “very well.” He offered no specifics.

The editor of a major Chinese state-run newspaper also said the talks went well.

“Based on information I received, talks between Xi and Trump went well and consensus was reached,” Hu Xijin, the editor of the Global Times, published by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, wrote on Twitter, without giving details.  (Read More)

It is likely the tariffs will continue until reciprocity improves.

The Big Club will go bananas next week.

There is no doubt in my mind that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. President Trump takes strategic messaging toward the people of China very importantly. President Trump has, very publicly, complimented the friendship he feels toward President Xi Jinping; and praises Chairman Xi for his character, strength and purposeful leadership. Trump knows how to play their panda/dragon games.

Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and then the  action continues. The red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. The Art of War.

President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask. Chairman Xi and President Trump are scheduled for a dinner on Saturday night; their first face-to-face meeting in a year.

The entire planet is focused on the dynamic of Chairman Xi and President Trump.  Billions waged on the position of an eyebrow, or the hint of a smile.  Epic stuff.  In the multinational finance world this is bigger than the moon landing, world cup and Olympics combined.  Every nuance and inference to be reviewed in slow-mo replay by hedge-fund managers looking for any indication of hope.

The funniest thing is Donald Trump doesn’t care about all that.  He has the desired ‘America First’ outcome gamed out; POTUS is only looking to see which direction Xi is leaning.  From there Trump puts the instructions to the team (Mnuchin, Pompeo, Ross, Lighthizer and Navarro); yet even they don’t know the full plan, no-one does except President Trump… for a reason.

The Wall Street global financial crowd is on pins-and-needles hoping desperately the confrontation between China and the U.S. doesn’t escalate.

Meanwhile, blue-collar Main Street USA is hoping ‘bull-in-a-china-shop-Trump‘ punches Xi in the nose; diplomatically of course.

The bamboo forest is shrinking…