Tag Archives: China

Jan 28 2026

Big Picture: President Trump and Trade Using the Art of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy


Posted originally on CTH on January 27, 2026 | Sundance

People might be interested in the recent stories of Canadian Premier Doug Ford and his reversal of position on Chinese EV production. Ontario Premier Ford now welcomes Chinese EVs into Canada.

Or people might be interested in the recent story of the EU announcing a historic trade deal with India. The European Union is now looking to find new markets to replace the U.S., while simultaneously agreeing to establish a new immigration/recruitment process to accept massive numbers of Indian migrants.

Yes, Canada reverses their position on trade with China, that’s odd. And somehow the EU immediately forgets their demands for India to stop buying Russian oil or face EU sanctions, another oddity.  This is like watching someone you don’t like, get engaged to your smelly, fat ex-girlfriend. [Matthew 15:14]

Canada and the EU take trade and economic positions seemingly against U.S. interests. Simultaneously Mexico modifies all their trade positions to come into alignment with the USA. Yesterday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Mexico will no longer ship oil to Cuba.

What’s going on?

Well, to really understand what is happening you need to look at President Trump’s responses to all of the individual issues outlined above and take a much bigger picture view.  President Trump is the master of the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy.’

♦ CANADA – When President Trump was asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney creating a new trade agreement with China, President Trump responded that he didn’t care – it was irrelevant to him.  Yet, simultaneously inside the USMCA President Trump has the power to veto any trade agreement between Mexico or Canada and a non-member nation.

So, why didn’t President Trump care?  Easy, because in President Trump’s mind there’s not going to be a USMCA; so, he really doesn’t care if Canada runs to violate it.  In real terms, Canada doing bilateral deals with other countries, especially deals potentially detrimental to the USA, only strengthens his position on dissolving the USMCA.

If Canada violates the terms and spirit of the USMCA, it makes dispatch of the unliked trade agreement even easier.  Canada is helping President Trump remove the congressional justification they could use to block him.  If Canada is violating the USMCA (CUSMA), Congress is kneecapped from interference.

Provoking Canada into a trade position, that puts them at a disadvantage trying to stop the dissolution of the CUSMA, stops Congress from opposing the fracture, and then opens the door to a bilateral trade agreement, is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that is entirely controlled by President Donald Trump.

[I pointed this out on the ‘Russian Sanctions’ map four years ago for a reason.] 

♦ EUROPE – In the last few months, the EU has been pressuring President Trump to join them in putting sanctions against India for purchasing Russian oil.  Suddenly, all those Russian energy issues are dropped, and the EU signs a trade agreement with India.  Again, just like with Canada, President Trump doesn’t care; he’s working on a much bigger objective.

Both Canada and Europe are independently, out of necessity, taking action that takes apart the trade and economic system they created.  At the core of the old trade system both Canada and Europe were exploiting the USA, exfiltrating wealth and skimming the independent entrepreneurial innovation that originates from within the U.S. economic system.

That necessary exploitation happened because the USA is innovative (freedom-based capitalism), while the CA/EU system is built on government control mechanisms.  The CA/EU energy policy is just one impactful example of their pontificating inability to be insightful when it comes to consequences.  The EU and Canada are now stuck looking for markets that will do the dirty jobs, provide them with core components, while simultaneously looking for markets for their finished products.

On the other side of the approach is President Trump, working to expand U.S. industrial dirty job capacity, create our own core components, then create finished goods entirely on our own.  A complete revitalization of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base.  Our U.S. GDP is currently expected to grow north of 5%.  This is not happening by accident.

Additionally, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is not bragging about importing Indian IT workers in a vacuum.  If the EU cannot skim off the IT capabilities of America, they have to find another Braintrust to tap.  Just like the innovative dependencies of China, the EU is intellectually frigid; compliance is ingrained in their academia.  Within the USA, we still have foundational disposition of ‘screw you‘ in our DNA.

Look at the advancements of Artificial Intelligence, or AI. All of the growth in that tech sector is being led by America. President Trump is taking every approach to ensure we remain the world’s dominant power in AI development. As much as Elon Musk’s quirks and quasi-friendly politics annoys me personally, strategically, on the technology side, it’s good to see him chumming around with President Trump; at least that’s what I tell myself.

♦ MEXICO – This is where it gets really, super interesting.  You might remember that China was set to invest between $5 billion and $10 billion (total) in Mexico for EV auto manufacturing.  In December of 2023, three Chinese auto manufacturers, MG, BYD, and Chery, announced they were going to spend billions building new EV manufacturing plants.  Each Chinese manufacturer was initially going to spend between $1.5 to $2.0 billion.  By March 2024, the reasoning was evident – Biden was supporting it.

When President Trump won the November 2024 election, all of those Chinese investments and plans inside Mexico were cancelled.

As we noted at the end of last year, splitting the USMCA into two bilateral trade deals, one for Mexico and one for Canada, will be one of the most interesting and long-term economically significant moves in U.S. trade history.  It is going to be a lot of fun to watch these negotiations, and the pre-positioning gives us a preview of what is to come.  Mexico is doing everything almost perfectly in preparation for their bilateral deal, including their stopping of oil shipments to Cuba.

This alignment follows the Mexican government passing a sweeping set of tariffs against Chinese imports. The Mexican government, led by Sheinbaum, made moves throughout 2025 to stay in alignment with a favorable U.S. trade agreement.  Meanwhile, the Canadian government, led by Mark Carney, has been more antagonistic and positioning Canada to lose badly.

♦ SUMMARY: Some people have construed the bilateral trade preference of President Trump to be the elimination of globalism in favor of nationalism in trade agreements. While the outcome of Trump’s approach indeed aligns with that theme, it is not specifically the objective of President Trump to eliminate global trade, but rather to focus on specific interests in trade that benefit the unique nature of each party involved.

Canada can embrace China, and Europe can embrace India; in the bigger picture it really doesn’t matter.  These relationships only create dependencies which are the natural outcome of globalism.  From President Trump’s position, what really matters is what happens within our borders and how the United States economy is positioned.  This is President Trump’s singular focus.

Do you remember President Trump leaving the 2025 G7 meeting in Canada early? The final day invitation list brought Australia, Mexico, Ukraine, South Korea, South Africa, India, the United Nations and the World Bank into the G7.  President Donald Trump smartly exited the G7 assembly a day early, he departed before that crowd of interests arrived.  The world leaders came because the process to keep USA wealth inside the USA is against their interests.  That’s why they came, and that’s why President Trump left.

Globalism, in its economic construct, is a series of dependencies. However, the opposite is also true. If nations are not dependent, they are sovereign – able to exist without the need for support from other nations and systems. If nations are sovereign, then globalism is no longer needed. If each nation of the world is operating according to its individual best interests, the position of Donald Trump, then what happens to the governing elite who set up the system of interdependencies?

“G7”?

Jan 28 2026

Ontario Premier Doug Ford Appears in Awkward Presser – We Love Chinese EVs Now


Posted originally on CTH on January 27, 2026 | Sundance

Ontario Premier Doug Ford went for a pizza with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.  Following the meeting Doug Ford appears on camera for a debrief to explain how he has reversed his opposition to Chinese EV imports.  The presser looks like a hostage video (prompted):

USMCA Article 32.10 – Non-Market Country FTA (key provisions):

“A Party intending to negotiate a free trade agreement with a non-market country shall inform the other Parties at least three months prior to commencing negotiations and, upon request, provide information regarding the objectives of those negotiations.

A Party that enters into a free trade agreement with a non-market country shall provide the other Parties with the full text of the agreement prior to signing.

If a Party enters into a free trade agreement with a non-market country, the other Parties may terminate this Agreement on six months’ notice and replace it with a bilateral agreement.” [SOURCE]

Jan 25 2026

President Trump Threatens to Hit Canada with 100% Tariff if they Become a Transshipping Hub for Chinese Imports


Posted originally on CTH on January 24, 2026 | Sundance 

Canada signing a trade agreement with China to permit the import of EVs is another escalation in the exploitation of the USMCA compact.

For the position of China, using Canada as a route to ship component goods into the United States is just a slight expansion of their current technique to avoid U.S. tariffs.  However, President Trump is taking action immediately.

Noting on his Truth Social platform, President Trump announced that if Canada does effectively go through with allowing the import of Chinese electric vehicles, then the U.S. will impose a 100% countervailing duty against all Canadian imports.

[SOURCE]

“[…] As a part of the deal, Canada will ease the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles that it imposed in tandem with the U.S. in 2024. In exchange, China will lower retaliatory tariffs on key Canadian agricultural products.” ~Politico

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney continues giving President Trump the ammunition to dissolve the USMCA trade agreement this year.

USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have both expressed anticipation of a new bilateral trade agreement to stop all this Canadian nonsense.

Jan 23 2026

The Stupidity of Davos Explained Using an Example of Their Own Creation


Posted originally on CTH on January 22, 2026 | Sundance 

It’s around lunchtime and I’ve spent so much time deep in the weeds of an issue that I need a break.  So, here’s a little funny story from my real-world travels in the past few years that given the current Davos meeting topics you might find interesting.

I went to Russia in 2024, because what I was hearing in western media about the sanctions did not align with what I was seeing from reports inside Russia.  Before I went into Russia, I spent several weeks in Northern and Eastern Europe visiting various institutions, reading material and checking to see how systems in Europe were engaging with commerce given the Russian sanctions.  It wasn’t very exciting work, and sometimes I literally just sat in the lobbies of banks listening to conversations.

When I went into Russia (April, May, June and July ’24) I noticed many of the “Uber cars” were BYD brand, Chinese electric vehicles.  It made sense given two years of existing sanctions and few cars from Europe or America available except under costly brokerage fees for acquisition.  They like the Geely brand better, but BYDs are much cheaper.  A brand new BYD costs around $5,000 to $10,000 USD, in some places even less.

Then later I noticed even more of these BYD cars in Europe.  I started to pay attention to them and saw them everywhere.

When I went back into Russia a year later in 2025, there was a very noticeable increase in BYD cars.  It was crazy, they were everywhere.

My travels also took me to southeast Asia and again those damned BYD’s were all over the place.  In Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, these BYD’s were everywhere, maybe even 30% of total vehicle traffic at times – most certainly well over 50% of all EVs – and there are digital billboards for “Build Your Dream” (BYD) all over the place throughout Asia.

Australia is stocked full of those things, and the middle east, yup, even there too.  It became increasingly weird to notice.  So many were visible I was wondering how the heck China can mass produce and ship this many cheap EVs so fast.

Then as serendipity would have it, I ran into a Chinese guy, professionally an actuary, in a hotel restaurant.  He explained to me that China produces the BYD not to make money from the automobile, but rather to sell the carbon credits the automobile generates within the auto industry.

The actual value to Beijing is in selling the carbon credit worthiness to various automakers who are fined or penalized by their government for producing gasoline powered vehicles.

BYD is, in essence, not a car per se’, but a mechanism to generate a carbon credit certificate that can be sold to other car companies. It’s the carbon credit certificate that generates the revenue, not the sale of the vehicle.  As my dinner guest explained, the auto insurance industry was having fits about this because the actuaries couldn’t accurately put a correct figure on the cost of the insurance warrantee within the industry (that’s another story).

The bottom line is that China is manufacturing a product to create a carbon credit certificate in response to the demand for carbon credits from all the world auto-makers.  Any nation that has a penalty or fine attached to their climate goals is a customer. Those are nations with fines or quotas associated with the production of gasoline powered engines if the auto company doesn’t hit the legislated target for sales of electric vehicles.

In essence, EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car companies buy Chinese car company carbon credits, to avoid the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN fines.  The Chinese then use the carbon credit revenue to subsidize even lower priced Chinese EVs to the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car markets, thereby undercutting the EU/AU/CA/RU/ASEAN car companies that also produce EVs.

Big Panda brilliantly exploits the ridiculous pontificating climate scam and has an interest in perpetuating -even emphasizing- the need for the EU/AU/RU/ASEAN countries to keep pushing their climate agenda.  China even goes so far as to fund alarmism research about climate change because they are making money selling carbon credit certificates on the back end of the scam to the western fear mongers.  This is friggin’ brilliant.

My dinner buddy was in the business of identifying the cost/benefit equation between the climate change fines and the prices Big Panda could charge for the carbon credit certificates.   If, as an example, Brussels dropped the quotas for EVs, China would need to lower the price for the carbon credit certificates.  So, Beijing wants Brussels to make sure they don’t drop the quotas.  See how that works?

The climate change alarmists are helping China’s economy by pushing ever escalating fear of climate change.  You just cannot make this stuff up.

What does the outcome look like?

Well, in this example we see thousands of unsold BYDs piling up in countries that emphasize climate regulations with no restrictions on the import of EVs (which most don’t even manufacture), which is almost every country.  Big Panda doesn’t care about the car itself; they care about generating the carbon credit certificate to sell in the various carbon exchanges.

Put this context to the recent announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney about his new trade deal with China to accept 49,000 EVs this year.

Prime Minister Carney bragged about getting the Chinese to agree to only super low prices for the Canadian market.  Mark Carney was very proud of his accomplishment to get much lower priced vehicles for Canadian EV purchasers.   No doubt Big Panda left the room laughing as soon as Carney made his grand announcement.

1. China sells EV’s in Canada, creating credits available on the carbon exchange scheme. Europe et al will purchase the carbon credits because Bussels has fines against EU car companies.

2. With a foothold already established in Europe, China will then take the money generated by the carbon credit purchases and lower the prices of the Chinese EV cars sold in Canada.

It’s gets funnier.

3. Carney bragged about forcing China to only sell low price EV’s as part of the trade agreement. The low price of the EV’s in Canada will be subsidized by Europe. China doesn’t pay or lose a dime.

But wait….

4. Carney can’t do anything about the scheme he has just enmeshed Canada into, because Canada has a Carbon Credit exchange in law. Big Panda wins again.

[…] In a statement published Thursday, BYD said sales of its battery-powered cars rose nearly 28% to 2.26 million units.

Musk openly laughed at the mention of BYD while being interviewed on Bloomberg TV in October 2011. He said he did not see the company as a competitor to Tesla, adding: “I don’t think they have a great product.” Meanwhile, Tesla said Friday it delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025. [SOURCE]

Elon thinks BYD are building cars.  They aren’t.

Jan 21 2026

Domestic Demand Wanes in China


Posted originally on Jan 21, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

China Taiwan Map

China’s GDP advanced by 4.5% in Q4 2025, slightly down from the 4.8% in Q3. Economic output for the year was 5%, in line with the target and aided by a strong industrial output of 5.2% in December. Notably, retail sales grew at a slow pace of 0.9% for the month, and growth slowed 4.5% YoY, highlighting the decline in domestic demand.

When an economy is truly healthy, domestic demand leads. The consumer spends, business expands, imports rise, and you see balanced growth. Instead, what we are seeing is the opposite. External trade is carrying the headline numbers while the internal economy becomes more fragile.

Beijing is leaning on industrial activity and exports, and this is where the imbalance becomes glaring. China posted a nearly $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, with exports rising about 5.5% even as imports showed little growth. China is selling to the world because it cannot fully absorb production domestically.

You also see this in the real estate collapse and the investment drag. Property has been the primary store of wealth and confidence for the Chinese. Reuters noted property investment fell 17.2% in 2025 and that consumption and investment are dragging while exports remain robust.

This is precisely why I have warned for years that you cannot look at “trade surplus” as some trophy without understanding the internal dynamics. The surplus is exploding because domestic demand is not keeping pace. Imports are not surging because the internal consumer and internal business confidence are not driving the same kind of pull. This is the classic imbalance of an economy becoming dependent on external demand. China is still on the rise long-term, but they’re looking at an economy that has become one-sided, which can be dangerous in today’s landscape of trade wars, regulations, supply chain constraints, and war itself.

Jan 19 2026

Israel Not Happy with Trump Appointed Turkey and Qatar Roles in Assisting Gaza Stabilization and Executive Board


Posted originally on CTH on January 18, 2026 | Sundance

Last week President Donald Trump officially announced the members of the Gaza Board of Peace; an organization headed by President Trump and tasked to oversee the second phase of his plan to end the Israeli conflict in Gaza, specifically the reconstruction and disarmament of Gaza and Hamas respectively. [SEE HERE]

The members of the “Board of Peace,” chaired by Trump himself, includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Emissary Steve Witkoff; Jared Kushner; former British Prime Minister Tony Blair; an American-Jewish billionaire named Mark Rowan; World Bank President Ajay Banga; and Deputy National Security Advisor of the United States, Robert Gabriel. President/Chairman Donald Trump has also appointed Aryeh Lightstone and Josh Gruenbaum as senior advisors to the Board of Peace.

At the same time, President Trump announced another executive body that would operate under the Peace Council to assist with the facilitation of a new Palestinian government, the “Gaza Executive Board.” This structure is intended to manage day to day events on the ground instead of a Hamas loyalist govt.  The appointees to the executive board have upset the Netanyahu government of Israel.

According to the White House announcement, the Gaza Executive Board will include: Witkoff; Kushner; Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan; senior Qatari official Ali al-Thawadi; Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad; Tony Blair; billionaire Mark Rowan; UAE Minister Reem Al Hashimi; former Bulgarian Foreign and Defense Minister Nickolay Mladenov, who also served as the UN envoy for the Middle East peace process; U.N Representative Sigrid Kagg, and Israeli-Cypriot businessman Yakir Gabbay, who specializes in real estate, technology and international investments.

Additionally, to establish security, preserve peace, and establish a durable terror-free environment, Major General Jasper Jeffers has been appointed Commander of the International Stabilization Force (ISF), where he will lead security operations, support comprehensive demilitarization, and enable the safe delivery of humanitarian aid and reconstruction materials. [link]

According to Israeli media Netanyahu is not happy, and planning to protest the Turkish, Qatari and UAE appointments to Marco Rubio (not Trump):

“A very unusual statement by the prime minister against the US president, following the publication of the members of the “Executive Committee for Gaza” – which includes, among other things, the Turkish foreign minister and a senior Qatari official. “The announcement of the panel was not coordinated with Israel and is contrary to its policy,” the Prime Minister’s Office said.

“The announcement of the composition of Gaza’s Executive Committee, which is subordinate to the peace conference, was not coordinated with Israel and is contrary to its policy,” the Prime Minister’s Office said, adding that “the prime minister has instructed Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar to contact US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on this matter.” (more)

Within the appointments for the executive board, the use of Turkey, Qatar and UAE officials for the governance and reconstruction of Gaza explains the recent parsing of the Muslim Brotherhood chapters as terrorist enablers.  When Secretary Rubio made the terrorist designation announcement, the Turkish and Qatari Muslim Brotherhood chapters were notably absent.  With the Gaza initiative ongoing, now we see coordinated pragmatism at work.

Rubio chose to focus on Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon to target the Muslim Brotherhood.  As we noted, “The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood were chased out of the country by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi over a decade ago. The Jordanian chapter is similarly aligned and was previously targeted by King Abdullah. The Lebanese faction is not as well known, but their support for Hamas is well understood.” {Go Deep}

A few things are obvious.

First, President Trump and Secretary Rubio knew in advance they were going to need the strong influences of Qatar and Turkey if they were going to stabilize the interim Gaza reconstruction governing system.  Secondly, both Trump and Rubio knew Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wouldn’t like that; however, pragmatically Trump and Rubio are doing what is in the best interest of the region as a whole, not being narrowly focused on Israel.  Additionally, these appointments have upset the Israel-first influencer group in the U.S.

President Trump is restructuring mid-east stability without the need for direct U.S. intervention.  Instead, under President Trump’s approach conflict resolution is the responsibility of the regional stakeholders with strong support from President Trump.  It is a similar outlook conveyed to Europe about needing to be responsible for their own defense and security solutions while the USA role is supportive in nature.

In this approach the sharp tendrils of U.S. influence start to be untangled, and the national security focus returns to the USA domestically. Mutually beneficial national sovereignty replaces toxic and unending globalist intervention.  This is a similar worldview that President Trump also takes toward trade agreements.

Multilateral trade agreements like the Transpacific Trade Partnership (TPP) or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), or even the NAFTA/USMCA trade agreement are rejected in favor of direct bilateral free trade agreements with individual nations.

In Trump’s trade policy the multilateral deals are dissolved, while the bilateral deals are affirmed. The same outlook holds true for massive institutional agreements that end up with large entanglements often carrying disproportionate costs and disparate benefits.  Like NATO, the USA usually ends up with the largest price tag and least benefit from the agreement.

Is NATO/Europe going to fight China over Taiwan? Of course not. If they were, Canada wouldn’t be making deals with Beijing, and Europe would not be allowing China to purchase stakeholder interests in the European car market.  The same pragmatic and reasonable outlook applies right now toward how the EU has responded to the Russia/Ukraine conflict; only “willing” if the USA puts our blood and treasure on the line.

This nationalistic outlook is honestly encapsulated in this recent soundbite from President Trump when asked about Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney making a trade agreement with China. President Trump genuinely doesn’t care. WATCH:

Canada can make whatever deal they want with China; however, that doesn’t mean it will work out well for Canada when the USMCA is dissolved and a new bilateral trade deal between the USA and Canada is renegotiated.  Factually, it means Canada will end up in a worse economic place, just look at the history of countries that hugged Big Panda.  It is their own independent right to be blind to the risk.

Despite all the warnings from President Trump, Europe became dependent on Russia for low-cost energy; how’d that work out for them?  Germany now seriously regrets their green energy approach, but there’s nothing President Trump can do to stop multinational assemblies from being collectively stupid; the only thing he can do is mitigate any collateral damage to the USA.

Instead of European leaders calling President Trump every time Turkish President Recep Erdogan does something against their interests, eventually the group will learn how to engage him individually.  In a world of bilateral respect, the lessons from Trump could even have the downstream effect of training the EU to drop their obsession with Russia-bad everything.

The Ukraine conflict could end when Europe finally realizes it’s much easier to turn on a Nordstream gas valve than it is to rebuild 30 German nuclear power plants.  President Trump’s refusal to commit U.S. troops to Zelenskyy’s security guarantee will hopefully hasten that conversation.

The same pragmatic realism applies to Greenland.  Europe will never respond to any increase in strategic threat presented by China or Russia in the Arctic, and the U.S. will shoulder all the costs if that risk were to materialize.  Strategic pragmatism combined with economic realism is why President Trump is focused on the security of the North American continent.

Lastly, there is a segment of MAGA that is angered by President Trump’s interim and necessary approach to removing our foreign policy entanglements in both the European and Mideast continents.  Those who are short-sighted don’t see how President Trump is strategically and factually withdrawing U.S. policy from a world of enmeshed dependencies, because in reality charity –along with security– begins at home.

Thankfully, the former Lyndon LaRouche assembly from Promethean Action have begun to recalibrate their British-centric focus, and they’ve started to look at Trump policy beyond the ramifications to London and through the more accurate prism of Trump’s global pragmatism.  President Donald Trump isn’t trying to unilaterally destroy British imperialism, not directly. Instead, that old, stuffy and elitist collapse is a consequence of reestablishing independent sovereignty.

Smile, live your very best life and watch it all unfold.  After all, Davos is going to be a must-watch event next week.

.

Jan 18 2026

DAVE BRAT: China Is Making Trade with Country With Already War with The United States


Posted originally on Rumble on Bannon War Room on: January 17, 2026

Jan 17 2026

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney Bows to Big Panda, Looking for Financial Assistance Against Godzilla Trump


Posted originally on CTH on January 16, 2026 | Sundance |

My dear Canadian conservative friends, things look very troubling. You have my deepest sympathies for the events of the next few years that are about to unfold.

[A Full Deep Dive Background Context is Here]

If I am not wrong!

We have researched, tracked, measured and followed each detail.

Having travelled to regions of the world in discussions with people who factually determine economic outcomes, it is clear that every single policy shift undertaken by the Canadian government of Mark Carney is exactly the opposite of what is needed.  In the next 24 months, the lifestyle of every Canadian will forever change.

Prime Minister Mark Carney bows to Big Panda. The most alarming words spoken during the formal welcome ceremony are prompted below.  WATCH: “The New World Order”

Too many words; too small a man.

President Trump is reestablishing an entirely new economic, trade and finance system. The era of the Marshal Plan is over; it has been factually deconstructed in the past 12 months.

Canadians and Europeans are desperately trying to offset the ramifications, hold on to their economic benefits and find a new mechanism to afford the domestic indulgences now eliminated by President Trump and the absence of money.

Both the EU and Canada are looking to China and ASEAN partnerships as a financial offset.  However, the ASEAN group has no domestic wealth and can only provide one-way benefits.

Despite the reality of things, denial is rampant.  Here are three facts that will not change.

Fact #1: Asia is not a purchaser; they are producers. There are no customers in Southeast Asia, only workers. ASEAN nations are not customers. Any ASEAN trade agreement does not materially gain the EU or Canada any exports.

Fact #2: China is a closed economic system.  China does what is in China’s best interests. When negotiating with China, Chairman Xi wears a panda mask to cover the dragon face.  China now sees the EU/Canada refusal to adapt as an opportunity to exploit.

Fact #3:  The EU and Canada have chased ‘climate change’ and ‘green energy’ schemes into a dead end of economic crisis. The direct and collateral damage is generational, and only just now beginning to surface.  When combined with their intransigent resistance to adapt to President Trump’s global economic and trade reset, core issue “reciprocity”, this reality takes both economies down a path that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Choosing to embrace China in lieu of modifying bilateral trade agreements with the USA is a short-sighted fool’s errand. Unfortunately, with political calculations each entity, Canada and/or the EU collective, are pandering to their base out of an unwillingness to change trade behavior as demanded by Trump.

Yes, Canada may end up exporting more very specific goods to China; an offset for some of the USA losses, but at what cost long-term.

Think about the EU auto-sector as an example.

To avoid paying their own climate change fines, the EU automakers are purchasing carbon credits from Chinese EV automakers. In the short term, that trick may diminish the auto company fines to Brussels but think about the longer-term problem.

China takes the revenue from the EU companies and uses it to subsidize their EV exports making their EVs cost substantially less than EU electric vehicles in the EU.

Geely, BYD, etc. can lower the price of an EV in Europe because EU car companies are giving them money. The EU is paying China to destroy the EU auto industry. You cannot make this stuff up.

As a consequence, BYD is now building a factory in Hungary.  Additionally, Geely owns 10% of Mercedes.  You might have noticed that Mercedes recently announced they are shifting production of their Model-A to Hungary.  20,000 jobs shifted from Germany to Hungary.  Victor Orban is good friends with Donald Trump.  These are not coincidences.

In the Canadian model, Mark Carney may end up selling slightly more stuff to China but he’s going to end up selling less to the USA because Chinese components are subject to ever-enlarging USA trade tariffs.  The USMCA is on the cusp of being cancelled, it will happen this year.

Canada is betting they can export more $$ to Beijing than they will lose in diminished export $$ to the USA. Fine, that’s the bet (a political calculation). However, the reality of the end result is increased dependency on China. That never ends well.

Beijing keeps the panda mask on while the dependency is created, see belt and road; however, as soon as it is in Beijing’s interest to drop the panda mask, Canada will see the dragon face behind it.

From Ottawa to London, to Paris, Berlin and Brussels the geopolitical landscape is changing permanently as President Donald Trump resets their global trade relationship to the United States.

NOTE: despite the claims of the Lyndon LaRouche group (Promethean Action), President Trump doesn’t sit around thinking about how to destroy British imperialism or the multinational financial system. That result comes as an outcome of his reset, a consequence; it is not however, the intent of it.

Instead, President Trump is leveraging the largest consumer market in the world to the benefit of the customer; that’s America.  Trump’s direct and specific intent is transactional, to rebuild an industrial and self-sufficient nation that is the envy of the world.

For several generations, Canada and the EU have exploited their biggest customer and taken the U.S. for granted.

In the end, the customer always controls the success of the business.

Visual Reference:

Jan 8 2026

China Loses Access to Venezuelan Oil


Posted originally on Jan 8, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Image

China became Venezuela’s largest oil purchaser through oil-for-debt deals. Socialism failed, and the nation was desperate for funds, especially after being ostracized from Western trade. Beijing supplied Venezuela with credit in exchange for heavily discounted crude. China’s access to cheap oil from Venezuela came to a sudden halt after the US takeover.

China was purchasing around 778,000 barrels a day before Maduro’s capture. Venezuela had borrowed up to $100 billion from China in loans since 2007, using PDVSA crude sales to ChinaOil as collateral. Venezuela agreed to ship fixed volumes of crude to Chinese buyers through small “teapot” refineries. While the average output was 778,000 bpd DAILY, exports reached 952,000 bpd at the end of 2025. These flows accounted for 4% of China’s total oil imports.

China is now looking to Iran and Russia for crude, furthering the disconnect between the East and West. Cargoes secured in Asian waters can cover two and a half months of China’s demand, easing any immediate shocks. Yet, Venezuela still owes China around $19 billion in outstanding debt that was largely secured by long-term crude imports.

China is enraged. Foreign Ministry spokespeople Mao Ning and Lin Jian demanded Venezuela retain “full and permanent sovereignty” over its natural resources and accused the US of “seriously breaching” international law. China’s “legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be protected,” according to state media. China’s United Nations representative reiterated this statement, demanding that the US  “cease its bullying and coercive practices.”

Russia stepped in to protect China’s short-term investments using a military submarine to protect an oil carrier from US forces. However, US forces successfully boarded and seized the cargo ship. There was no direct conflict between Russia and the US, but “direct” is key as Russia is showing its willingness to oppose Western influence.

Canada’s Carney chimed in to offer clean Canadian oil as an alternative. No one cares if the oil is clean; everyone wants the best deal.

Rest assured China will ensure it is repaid. Yet, the Trump Administration may not permit repayment in crude. The situation is unfolding and tensions are rapidly rising. The international community is split on America’s actions, with even America’s European allies condemning the move. Europe is now painting Trump with the same brush as Putin by insisting he will continue nation-building and expanding the great American Empire. The models pointed to geopolitical upheaval during the first week of January as we move toward the pinnacle of the panic cycle set to explode in 2026.

Jan 5 2026

Why Did Trump Really Take Venezuela? It Wasn’t Just Oil!


Posted originally on Jan 4, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

COMMENT: You said these podcasts that Venezuela had the oil but the big question is China. Would like to expand on that now? Socrates showed the dollar taking off in October 2024 and the fourth quarter was a turning point. But it now shows volatility rising from February on. It looks like this is not over as you say until the fat lady sings.

FDS

Venezuela Bolivar Y 1 3 26

ANSWER: OK. I suppose I can now give the bigger picture that headlines miss. Trump’s comment throws in energy secondly. He does not mention drugs. Most of the drugs come in through Mexico. As I have said, China is the #1 client of Venezuela. This all depends on the takover of those oil assets by the American oil companies and do they cut off China. That may not be in the cards just yet because Venezuela owes a lot of monet to China. However, overlooked here is the connection to Russia. That is the real issue nobody is taking about and this has been a goal of Rubio for a very long time.

Russian lawmaker Alexei Zhuravlyov told Gazeta.ru on November 1st, 2025 that Russia MAY supply Venezuela with its new Oreshnik and Kalibr missiles, stating “I see no obstacles to providing our friendly nation with new systems such as the Oreshnik or the well-proven Kalibr missiles.” This wasn’t merely hypothetical posturing but a direct response to U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean. This threat was taken seriously. The Oreshnik, with a reported maximum range of about 3,400 miles, could theoretically threaten much of the continental United States as well as Puerto Rico. The Kalibr is thought to have a range of between 930 and 1,550 miles, which could possibly threaten the southern continental U.S., as well as facilities throughout the Caribbean.

From Venezuelan territory, the missile could target most of South America, the Caribbean, Mexico, and large portions of the United States—with Washington likely among its primary targets, given the tense relations between the US and Maduro’s regime. Even parts of Canada could fall within its range.

The relationship between Venezuela and Russia and China represented one of the most significant geopolitical realignments of the 21st century, built on anti-American sentiment, oil-for-loans arrangements, and mutual opposition to U.S. hegemony. This trilateral dynamic evolved from modest beginnings under Hugo Chávez into a comprehensive strategic partnership that has sustained the Maduro regime through economic collapse and international isolation.

The relationship between China and Venezuela took formal shape in 2006, under President Hugo Chávez, with Caracas signing several trade agreements with Beijing and describing China as a “Great Wall” against US influence. Chávez, seeking to diversify Venezuela’s oil exports away from the United States and counter American regional dominance, found in China an eager partner with rapidly growing energy needs and no political conditions attached to its financing.

The financial dimensions proved staggering. China began extending large loans to Venezuela, backed by future oil supplies of oil. In 2006, Beijing provided $2 billion in loans, which rose to $7 billion in 2007. Of the $150 billion the Chinese Development Bank loaned to Latin America in the past 12 years, a third went to Venezuela. These weren’t traditional loans but rather oil-collateralized arrangements where Venezuela repaid through petroleum shipments to Chinese state companies.

In 2007, China and Venezuela set up a joint fund worth $6 billion–$4 billion loan from the China Development Bank (CDB) and $2 billion from El Fondo De Desarrollo Nacional S.A. (FONDEN) set up by Caracas. This fund doubled to $12 billion by 2009. The mechanism was straightforward: China provided upfront capital, and Venezuela committed to shipping specified quantities of oil at predetermined prices. When oil prices collapsed in 2014 and Venezuela’s economy imploded, China extended additional lifelines including a $10 billion loan to support the country’s balance of payments.

The relationship peaked between 2010 and 2013, when Venezuela received approximately 64% of China’s new credit lines to Latin America. However, as Maduro’s mismanagement destroyed the oil industry and production plummeted, Chinese enthusiasm collapsed as a result. By 2016, Venezuela received only 10% of Chinese regional lending, and new financing essentially ceased. China focused instead on restructuring existing debt and protecting already-committed investments.

China is owed by Venezuela at least $20 billion in loans established before 2017. Some estimate that is even higher. The relationship shifted from expansion to damage control. Maduro’s rampant corruption and mismanagement has led to the region’s worst economic depression, creating unfavorable investment conditions, affecting oil production and exports, and limiting return on Chinese investment and Venezuela’s ability to repay Chinese loans.

Now, that said, we must look at the Russian comment and look at this video. Who is standing there with Trump? Marco Rubio. If you remember, Rubio was also running for president against Trump in 2016. Who was funding his campaign? Goldman Sachs. Rubio has pushed for regime change in Venezuela because of Russia for years. Marco Rubio has held many titles during Donald Trump’s presidency, and he now adds another: Viceroy of Venezuela.

Russia’s engagement with Venezuela followed different patterns than China’s, emphasizing military cooperation alongside energy sector involvement since Russia did not need their oil. Where China provided infrastructure loans, Russia sold weapons systems. From 2005, Venezuela purchased more than $4 billion worth of arms from Russia. These sales included fighter aircraft, helicopters, armored vehicles, and air defense systems, transforming Venezuela’s military from American-equipped forces to Russian-supplied ones.

Russia and Venezuela forged a comprehensive strategic partnership centered on anti-hegemonic solidarity and pragmatic cooperation. This wasn’t merely commercial but explicitly geopolitical. Chávez and later Maduro positioned Venezuela as Russia’s foothold in the Western Hemisphere, allowing military exercises and bomber flights that signaled Moscow’s reach into America’s traditional sphere of influence.

The energy relationship proved more complex than China’s. Russia’s state oil company Rosneft provided billions in loans and took equity stakes in Venezuelan projects, though on smaller scale than Chinese financing. Russia’s state-backed oil company Rosneft loaned $2.3 billion, excluding interest. Critically, Russia helped Venezuela circumvent U.S. sanctions by facilitating oil exports through complex shipping arrangements and providing technical expertise to maintain declining production.

The trade balance between Moscow and Caracas increased by 64% in 2024, demonstrating sustained engagement despite Venezuela’s economic deterioration. Russia viewed Venezuela through multiple lenses simultaneously both as an economic opportunity, as well as a strategic geopolitical asset.

The Geopolitical Chess Move

Checkmate 2

I hope this explains behind the curtain for this is NOT simply a grab for oil NOR is it simply about drugs. We will see if Trump/Rubio cuts off the energy flow to China. But I believe that is a card to be played later in the game. I believe that #1 reason is to prevent Russia using Venezuela as a foothold like Cuba in 1962. But this is again only one reason in a complex strategic geopolitical move that is beyond the headlines right now.