Posted originally on CTH on October 29, 2025 | Sundance
South Korea is 13 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Time. At 5:23pm Wed Eastern / 6:23am Thur local, President Trump sent the following message:
Tag Archives: China
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Informs Govt and Business Leaders No Trade Deals Possible
Posted originally on CTH on October 28, 2025 | Sundance
For those who have followed along with the U.S-Canada trade positioning, the current status of conflict between the Trump administration and the government of Canada is not surprising. {GO DEEP} Going all the way back to the replacement of NAFTA, with the USMCA, President Trump always said he did not favor multilateral trade deals with multiple countries; instead, he preferred bilateral free trade agreements.
Some people have construed the bilateral preference of President Trump to be the elimination of globalism in favor of nationalism in trade agreements.
While the outcome of the Trump approach indeed aligns with that theme, it is not specifically the objective of President Trump to eliminate global trade, but rather to focus on specific interests in trade that benefit the unique nature of each party involved.
As a result, the USMCA -or CUSMA as said in Canada- is not in alignment with a bilateral free trade agreement, and the conflicted differences between trade with Mexico and trade with Canada are an outcome of this dynamic. The solution is simply to eliminate the multilateral in favor of the bilateral approach. This is the objective of President Trump as expressed.
That said, the USMCA covers approximately 60% of U.S-Canada trade, and the remaining 40% is being debated and argued. President Trump would prefer to just deal with 100% of the trade sectors in one free trade agreement; hence, his ambivalence until the USMCA is dissolved.
Canada, on the other hand, continues to demand that all trade conflicts be resolved without opening up the entire USMCA. Again, another conflict. Canada is like the dependent spouse in a divorce arguing for child support payments when the “children” are in their twenties.
The current status is President Trump pulling back completely from discussions with Canada, while the various provincial Premiers and Prime Minister Mark Carney antagonize over the issue.
At a certain point, when the entire national economic plan of Canada is based on “Donald Trump bad”, and all political messaging internally is to proclaim they have no alternative policy positions, the Canadians might not realize it, but they are confirming complete and total dependency on the nation Donald Trump represents.
As the Canadian government continues demanding President Trump pay attention to their needs, U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, informs the Carney administration, and various stakeholders, any trade agreement is no longer possible.
CANADA – The U.S. ambassador to Canada doesn’t foresee a new security and economic deal between Canada and the United States — which could see the reduction or full removal of tariffs amid an ongoing trade dispute — before the new year.
“We have stopped negotiations with Canada,” Pete Hoekstra said in a keynote address to the Coalition of Concerned Manufacturers and Business Canada on Monday. “I don’t see any way that there will be an agreement before American Thanksgiving.”
“I’m not sure what it’s going to take to get people back to the table in a constructive and positive mode,” he added.
Hoekstra’s comments come just days after U.S. President Donald Trump said he is terminating trade talks with Canada and increasing levies on Canadian goods by 10 per cent in response to an anti-tariff ad by the government of Ontario which featured the voice of former Republican U.S. president Ronald Reagan. Ontario has since pulled the ads, effective Monday.
Government sources had told CTV News that Canadian officials were hopeful there could be movement on a steel and aluminum deal by this week’s APEC Summit in South Korea.
[…] Asked by event attendees whether he sees any way to get negotiations back on track, such as an apology for the ad, Hoekstra said: “No.”
Speaking more broadly about the state of negotiations, Hoekstra laid the blame at Canada’s feet for the soured relationship.
Hoekstra has previous expressed his distaste for what he’s called “anti-American” sentiment in Canada, and on Monday pointed to some provinces removing U.S. liquor from store shelves and Canadians being discouraged from travelling south of the border as examples.
He also said the ad amounts to foreign interference, with the U.S. Supreme Court set to start hearing arguments on the legality of Trump’s tariffs on Nov. 5, as well as some gubernatorial and state legislative elections happening next week.
“Canada burnt the bridges with America,” he said. “Donald Trump did not slam the door.”
“Donald Trump could do the only thing that a leader of a sovereign nation could do when a neighbour, another sovereign nation, decided to interject itself into American politics,” he added. “Canada slammed that door shut all by itself.” (read more)
Canada is trying to force President Trump to give them preference, in a similar way the EU demanded special trade privileges.
President Trump is trying to end the Canadian one-way benefits toward the U.S. market.
President Trump is currently touring Asia, gathering up bilateral trade deals with various countries all across the ASEAN network.
In the bigger context, Trump is cutting all the tentacles and tools of China, and isolating them from Southeast Asia, as it relates to trade with the USA.
The bigger strategy of President Trump is very clear now, reduce dependency on China by retracting all of the manufacturing dependency.
All of the surrounding nations in Asia stand to benefit from this approach through bilateral free trade agreements with the USA. Beijing’s influence is being seriously diminished as the lead-up to President Trump sitting down with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping on Thursday.
Inside China, throughout the Chinese Communist Party, there are indications they are recognizing how successful President Trump has been at working around their influence. Some outside observers have even started to believe the “moderates” within China feel empowered over the “hardliners” represented by Chairman Xi. There is a lot going on behind the scenes.
This internal pressure inside Beijing’s politics works to President Trump’s favor, because it makes it even harder for Xi Jinping to be aggressive. Additionally, with the Chinese economy being uncertain, perhaps significantly weak, Chairman Xi might even face a challenge to his power structure. Meanwhile President Trump hops around shaking hands and making deals.
Canada Likely to Take Chinese EV Production as Offset to Lost U.S. Trade
Posted originally on CTH on October 27, 2025 | Sundance
As previously outlined, Canada is so entrenched with their ‘orange man bad’ syndrome, they just cannot get out of their own way on stupid trade decisions. {GO DEEP}
You might remember Mexico retreating from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) development following the November 2024 election of Donald Trump.
China was on the cusp of investing $5 to $7 billion in new EV manufacturing in Mexico, when President Trump announced he would impose massive tariffs to block any import of Chinese EVs made in Mexico. Trump won the election and together China and Mexico scrapped their plan.
Europe then stepped on the Chinese EV rake and began purchasing carbon credits from Chinese EV companies to avoid the “climate change” auto goals and subsequent fines to EU car companies for not hitting EV production targets. In essence, Europe is paying Chinese EV companies for carbon credits, thereby subsidizing lower priced Chinese EVs in Europe. The EU is paying China to destroy their own auto industry.
Now, it’s Canada’s turn.
As a result of President Trump asserting tariffs against imported autos, the large auto companies are abandoning plans to build or expand auto manufacturing in Canada. The Canadians are angry, and the professional political class in Canada is doing everything they can to continue ramping up opposition to Donald Trump.
With increased tariffs against Canada, and with the likely dissolution of the USMCA (CUSMA) coming in the near future, the Canadian govt of Mark Carney has been traveling the world to find alternative markets for their goods and services. The main targets for new Canadian economic and trade relations are the U.K, EU and China.
In a deal to expand the trade relationship with China, the Canadian government of Mark Carney is now proposing to drop tariffs against Chinese EVs in a deal to sell more pork and canola oil. That’s correct, in essence Canada will take the EV auto business abandoned by Mexico.
This was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s grand plan as he attended the ASEAN summit in Malaysia.
Keep in mind, as we have outlined all along during Trump’s trade reset, the USMCA is going to be abandoned in favor of two bilateral free trade agreements; one with Mexico and one with Canada.
As outlined in the Mexican decision to cancel EV investment, Mexico is aligning for a favorable trade relationship with President Trump and the USA.
The Mexican govt can see the benefits and accepts their regional dependency to the world’s largest consumer market. However, Canada is doing exactly the opposite and increasing the disconnect between Canada and the United States on key sectors of trade and commerce.
Canada may benefit in the short term from sales of pork and canola to Beijing, while simultaneously gaining Chinese investment in cobalt mining and auto development for EVs. But those EVs will never be permitted to cross the border into the USA and any effort to enhance Chinese EV sales in Canada will only disconnect them more from trade with Donald Trump and the USA.
[BACKGROUND HERE] – [Canada/Chinese EV Deal Here]
Canada Likely to Take Chinese EV Production as Offset to Lost U.S. Trade
Posted originally on CTH on October 27, 2025 | Sundance
As previously outlined, Canada is so entrenched with their ‘orange man bad’ syndrome, they just cannot get out of their own way on stupid trade decisions. {GO DEEP}
You might remember Mexico retreating from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) development following the November 2024 election of Donald Trump.
China was on the cusp of investing $5 to $7 billion in new EV manufacturing in Mexico, when President Trump announced he would impose massive tariffs to block any import of Chinese EVs made in Mexico. Trump won the election and together China and Mexico scrapped their plan.
Europe then stepped on the Chinese EV rake and began purchasing carbon credits from Chinese EV companies to avoid the “climate change” auto goals and subsequent fines to EU car companies for not hitting EV production targets. In essence, Europe is paying Chinese EV companies for carbon credits, thereby subsidizing lower priced Chinese EVs in Europe. The EU is paying China to destroy their own auto industry.
Now, it’s Canada’s turn.
As a result of President Trump asserting tariffs against imported autos, the large auto companies are abandoning plans to build or expand auto manufacturing in Canada. The Canadians are angry, and the professional political class in Canada is doing everything they can to continue ramping up opposition to Donald Trump.
With increased tariffs against Canada, and with the likely dissolution of the USMCA (CUSMA) coming in the near future, the Canadian govt of Mark Carney has been traveling the world to find alternative markets for their goods and services. The main targets for new Canadian economic and trade relations are the U.K, EU and China.
In a deal to expand the trade relationship with China, the Canadian government of Mark Carney is now proposing to drop tariffs against Chinese EVs in a deal to sell more pork and canola oil. That’s correct, in essence Canada will take the EV auto business abandoned by Mexico.
This was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s grand plan as he attended the ASEAN summit in Malaysia.
Keep in mind, as we have outlined all along during Trump’s trade reset, the USMCA is going to be abandoned in favor of two bilateral free trade agreements; one with Mexico and one with Canada.
As outlined in the Mexican decision to cancel EV investment, Mexico is aligning for a favorable trade relationship with President Trump and the USA.
The Mexican govt can see the benefits and accepts their regional dependency to the world’s largest consumer market. However, Canada is doing exactly the opposite and increasing the disconnect between Canada and the United States on key sectors of trade and commerce.
Canada may benefit in the short term from sales of pork and canola to Beijing, while simultaneously gaining Chinese investment in cobalt mining and auto development for EVs. But those EVs will never be permitted to cross the border into the USA and any effort to enhance Chinese EV sales in Canada will only disconnect them more from trade with Donald Trump and the USA.
[BACKGROUND HERE] – [Canada/Chinese EV Deal Here]
Mohamed El-Erian Outlines Stunning Success of President Trump’s Tariff, Trade and Economic Policy Agenda
Posted originally on CTH on October 27, 2025 | Sundance
Wharton Professor and noted economist Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Fox News to discuss the jaw-dropping success President Trump is having with his global trade reset.
As noted by El-Erian no one, including El-Erian himself, expected President Trump to be able to navigate a global trade and economic reset with such stunning success. The entire economic policy is being driven by the personal influence of President Trump as he leverages tariffs and policy incentives to the benefit of the USA economy exclusively.
The scale of Trump’s agenda is difficult to overstate, and China is now positioned to feel incredible pressure to align Beijing policy with the requests of President Trump. “We thought there would be a massive retaliation against the US, there hasn’t been” El-Erian noted. “We’re collecting $800 Billion of tariff revenue” and “inflation has waned,” he said. This is a remarkable situation that few economists could accurately predict. WATCH:
This is not a surprise to readers here as we have discussed the Trump trade agenda with clear, non-pretending eyes. The ASEAN trip by President Trump is a masterclass in leveraging trade relationships and creating isolation for China. The downstream consequences for Canada continue to build as the Carney administration doubles down on their entrenched and futile opposition.
If President Trump can formulate a strong, actionable and enforceable free trade agreement with Chairman Xi, it will undercut the ability of Canada to assemble cheap component goods not available in the U.S. manufacturing equation for total cost of goods. This puts Trump in an even stronger position heading into the 2026 USMCA (CUSMA) dissolution phase.
Additionally, despite the mainstream thoughts to the contrary, putting distance between Russia and China is not averse to the interests of Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, who would strategically prefer to do business with the ‘West’ over Beijing. However, China does not want to see their Biden-created tentacle weakened in Russia.
China retains a vision of a global financial market option beyond the dollar, and Xi plays that long-term strategy game with Putin quite effectively. It is only President Trump who holds the key to weakening that strategy, and Chairman Xi likely reminds everyone -through his emissaries- that they can wait out the Trump administration.
However, during the ASEAN conference, again we see President Trump drawing heavily on the personal factor as a part of his strategic influence operation to push distance between Southeast Asia and Beijing. Cunning Panda can undoubtedly see that play, however, culturally they may underestimate the strength of the dynamic. President Trump leverages the world’s biggest market with a smile. The world’s biggest sellers want and need to keep that smile on the face of their #1 customer.
President Donald Trump is a friendly dealmaker, until he is not. Southeast Asia understands this dynamic very well.
China Accuses Taiwan of Psychological Warfare
Posted originally on Oct 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Taiwanese intelligence launched a psychological warfare attack to spread separatist activities, according to the Chinese Communist Party who has placed a cash bounty on the heads of 18 Taiwanese military officials.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry called the accusations “despotic and pig-headed thinking.” Chinese authorities believe Taiwan’s “psychological warfare unit” deliberately created online games depicting Taiwan fighting for independence against China as part of its disinformation campaign. Names, identification numbers, and photographs of the 18 wanted individuals have been spread across Taiwan, with China promising a $1,400 USD bounty for any information leading to an arrest.
The manhunt comes one day after Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te announced an escalation in the “T-Dome” defense air system project. The T-Dome multi-layered air defense system is modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome and intended to protect Taiwan against Chinese aggression. The “sensor to shooter” mechanism will intercept all aerial threats including missiles and drones. Taiwan is relying on American manufactured Patriot Misses as one major component of this defense system.
“The increase in defence spending has a purpose; it is a clear necessity to counter enemy threats and a driving force for developing our defence industries,” he said in his National Day address, to applause from the crowd. “We will accelerate our building of the T-Dome, establish a rigorous air defence system in Taiwan with multi-layered defence, high-level detection, and effective interception, and weave a safety net for Taiwan to protect the lives and property of citizens.”
The Taiwanese government plans to spend tens of billions of dollars to produce the T-Dome over the next several years, but China would NEVER allow that to happen. State-controlled Chinese media mocked the project as “an expensive mirage” that will financially cripple the island.
Lai plans to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP immediately, increasing the figure by 5% by 2030. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun condemned Lai, who is not recognized as a president with any power, as a “war-maker” who is creating danger. Beijing firmly declares Taiwan as “an inseparable part of China’s territory.” China has permitted Taiwan to self-govern under its careful eye, but now, the time to fully re-integrate Taiwan may come sooner than expected.
China Purchased $38B from the US in Semiconductor Chips
Posted originally on Oct 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Taiwan’s global dominance of semiconductor chip manufacturing has been at the forefront of the US-China technology war. The focus has been on Taiwan, leaving other avenues of Chinese influence ignored. China used loopholes in US law to purchase over $38 billion in chip-making technology in the last year alone, marking a 66% rise in imports since 2022, when legislation was passed to restrict Chinese access to US chip technology.
Military modernization has become the focal point of concern. These advanced chips have been utilized to develop highly detailed surveillance systems, hypersonic weapons, and cutting-edge AI technology. US intelligence believes national security is at risk and there must be an effort to “impede the PRC’s ability to procure and produce the technologies necessary for its military modernization” to “protect our world-leading technologies and know-how so they aren’t used to undermine our national security.”
The US House of Representatives Select Committee on China is calling for a broad ban on importing US chip technology to China, following the release of a report detailing how Chinese firms have bypassed loopholes in US law to purchase this technology legally.
“These are the sales that made China increasingly competitive in the manufacture of a wide range of semiconductors, with profound implications for human rights and democratic values around the world,” the report said. China accounted for 39% of aggregate sales to Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, ASML, and Tokyo Electron. Legislation has curbed but not deterred sales to China.
A spokesman for Tokyo Electron stated that sales to China have declined since 2022, when the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) implemented a law entitled “Export Controls on Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items to the People’s Republic of China.” The legislation expanded on Export Administration Regulations (EAR) to include foreign-produced advanced computing items and semiconductor chips.
US businesses seeking to conduct business with Chinese semiconductor companies must obtain a license that is notoriously difficult to acquire. The latest report revealing the $38 billion in sales has raised bipartisan concern, and increased restrictions are expected.
This brings the attention back to Taiwan. China may not purchase advanced technology from the US, and if Taiwan were to move 50% of production to US soil, China would certainly lose its competitive edge. Furthermore, China is also not willing to share technology with the US–why would enemy nations share the most crucial components needed to engage in next-generation warfare? China reclaiming Taiwan would eliminate America’s access to semiconductors. Both China and the US can tariff each other to death, but neither can afford to lose the jewel of Taiwan.
Poland’s PM Praises Man Accused of Destroying Nord Stream Pipeline
Posted originally on Oct 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes the man who allegedly destroyed the Nord Stream pipeline did his country a great service. Tusk is considering breaking international law by harboring the fugitive who is wanted by the German government. The man, of course, will be the scapegoat for the incident. More telling is Warsaw’s response, rooted in old geopolitical tensions and willful ignorance of how drastically the explosion hurt their own economy.
“The problem of Europe, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland is not that Nord Stream 2 was blown up, but that it was built,” Tusk said. “It is certainly not in the interest of Poland to hand over this citizen to a foreign country.” Poland will hold the man in its custody for an additional 40 days, during which it will consider Germany’s demand that he be extradited for prosecution.
“Russia, with money from some European states and German and (Anglo-) Dutch companies, built Nord Stream 2 against the vital interests not only of our states, but of all of Europe, and there can be no ambiguity about that,” Tusk concluded.
Poland has always been caught between Germany and Russia. From the Polish partitions in the 18th century to Soviet domination in the 20th, the Polish political class views any direct German-Russian cooperation as an existential threat. Poland initially protested the pipeline because it felt that Germany was attempting to remove Eastern Europe’s main bargaining chip with Moscow — energy transportation. They invested in LNG terminals, aligned with US energy interests, and positioned themselves as the eastern front against both Russian and EU central control.
The European Union and the euro could never erase generations of geopolitical hatred and scars. Warsaw simply sees Berlin as the lesser of two evils when it comes to Moscow. Tusk’s comments are a deliberate attempt to create friction with Germany and undermine the power they continue to hold over Poland as the economic center of the EU.
One bad apple spoils the bunch, and in the case of Europe, one bad economy will do the trick. Europe was reliant on Russian energy for many years prior to the war. Poland was purchasing 95.5% of its oil from Russia in 2012; the figure declined to 63.1% by 2021 before the war. Yet, Tusk is condemning former German Chancellor Angela Merkel for agreeing to the Nord Stream pipeline. Energy prices spiked by 30% after the pipeline demolition, fueling valid fears of energy shortages across the continent.
The pipeline itself may have been a Russian majority asset, but the infrastructure projects and joint ventures sprouting from the pipeline benefited Europe. European firms, including Wintershall Dea (Germany), E.ON (PEG Infrastruktur, Germany), Gasunie (Netherlands), and ENGIE (France), collectively held 49% of the Nord Stream AG operating company, while Gazprom itself retained 51%.
By now, the world knows that Western intelligence agencies deliberately targeted the pipeline in an act of war. The man detained would be considered a terrorist if these charges were factual. Perhaps they do not want to conduct a fake investigation or trial that would raise suspicions. Tusk needs to look down and realize he’s been shot in the foot with the destruction of this pipeline that ALL of Europe, not merely Germany, benefited from.
Chaebols and Youth Unemployment in South Korea
Posted originally on Oct 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Nepal, Morocco, Madagascar, and now South Korea—the youth are not accepting economic hardships quietly. South Korea passed a “public intimidation law” that criminalizes threats or acts of crime against the general public with a penalty of 20 million won ($13,700) or five years imprisonment. New data has found that half of the suspects are in their 20s and 30s, according to ministry data obtained by Representative Song Seok-jun.
The most common motive noted in around one-third of cases is anger or resentment toward society. The law went into effect back in March and there have been over 70 cases of public intimidation. Authorities have arrested over 50 people, mostly men in their 20s. Crimes vary from online hate to bomb threats.
Seoul National University’s School of Public Health reported in May that 55% of adults in South Korea are living in a state of “prolonged emotional frustration,” and 70% reported that society is “fundamentally unfair.”
Youth unemployment in South Korea has reached 15%, with the national average sitting at 5%. Over 1.2 million young people are unemployed, despite South Korea having one of the highest rates of higher education. Working for a family-run conglomerate or a chaebol is seen as prestigious compared to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) where working conditions and pay are less desirable. SK, LG, Samsung, and Hyundai alone accounted for 40.8% of the national GDP in 2023. In fact, 84.3% of all GDP can be traced to 64 companies ,but they compose only 10% of available jobs.
“The figures make clear that the chaebols’ impact on the Korean economy cannot be easily disregarded. But the 64 chaebol’s share of employment is lower than their share of revenue, which means they need to more aggressively expand their hiring,” said Oh Il-seon, director of the Korea CXO Institute.
Over 70% of Koreans between 25 and 34 hold a college degree, which is 20 points higher than the OECD average. Studies show that only 24% of college graduates in South Korea earn more than those with a high school diploma. In contrast, 69% of college graduated in America are employed.
South Korean children begin training for a position at a chaebol. The market is saturated with educated, eligible employees. Housing and the overall cost of living have skyrocketed. The youth followed the playbook and lost the game. South Korea already has a plethora of political turmoil, but no one is more vocal or willing to cause unrest than the youth.
Chopper Presser – President Trump Delivers Impromptu Remarks Departing the White House
Posted originally on CTH on October 5, 2025 | Sundance
President Trump pauses to answer press pool questions as he departs the White House to attend a Navy celebration event in Virginia.
President Trump took questions on Ukraine, Russia, Gaza, Chicago ICE efforts, Portland Antifa activity, Venezuela drug combat efforts and Israeli hostages getting released. WATCH:
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