Tag Archives: Destroy ISIS. Beat ISIS

Aug 30 2017

China Recommits To U.N. Sanctions Against North Korea…


RE-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 30, 2017 by

Things are going swimmingly, strategically, seemingly according to plan.  When the full measure of history allows time to review, observers will note the strategic victory was achieved on August 5th, 2017; that’s the original date when Russia and China agreed to the U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea.  That first, historic, Russia and China U.N. Security Council vote against North Korea came as a result of eight months of assembled economic leverage created by President Donald Trump.

As a result of this ongoing strategy, every time North Korea’s Kim Jong-un takes an action, President Trump hits China’s Xi Jinping with an additional economic squeeze.  As Beijing feels the squeeze, they tell Kim Jong-un to act. Every time Kim Jong-un acts, President Trump squeezes Beijing with more economic pressure.  Wash-Rinse-Repeat.

Communist Beijing has boxed themselves into this inescapable cycle. The only way out of the box is to concede and lay the DPRK defeat at the feet of Kim Jong-un.  The conceding will evidence itself when Beijing inevitably calls for ‘Six Party Talks‘.  Today:

(Via Associated Press) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says his country will “fully and completely” abide by U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions on North Korea.

Wang told reporters Wednesday China would work with other members of the council on how best to react to North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday.

He says, “We will make a necessary response.”

While acknowledging long-standing ties between the Pyongyang and Beijing, Wang says China was compelled to act to guard against further instability. China accounts for around 90 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade and has provided limited diplomatic cover for its actions, despite growing increasingly frustrated at continued provocations.

The latest sanctions hit Chinese businesses hard by way of a ban on North Korean exports of coal, iron, lead and seafood products, together worth over $1 billion for a country with total exports valued at just $3 billion last year. (link)

REMINDER Looking at the geopolitical landscape, and the known and identified calendar of upcoming events, we discover a likely Trump Administration timeline to achieve their goal:

♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.

♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year.  Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.

So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.

::::smiling:::::

Yup.

Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Prime Minister Narendra Modi hugs.

Prime Minister Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship.  China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Bollywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.

Those who doubt Trump’s strategic economic approach with India only need to look at how the U.S. has given Pakistan the responsibility to bring tribal extremists in Afghanistan to the table of negotiation.  China and Pakistan are allied via massive Chinese investment, while the U.S. has now allied in common principle with India who is invested in Afghanistan.

Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.

Strategery.

::::still smiling::::

Again, President Trump holds all the economic cards.  Just look at what he did to neuter Russia’s economy when everyone was paying attention to the bouncing laser dot on the wall.  The American and Western media missed it, but President Trump moved the entire geopolitical world via a strategic energy platform.

Sip this next paragraph slowly to enjoy:

From OPEC (Saudi Summit) to the EU and Baltic States (Poland Pre-G20); to North African energy development via President Macron (Libya and Mali); to walking away from the Paris Climate agreement; to discussions with Theresa May on a bilateral trade deal; to massive shipments of coal to U.K. and France; to closing a deal to deliver Ireland massive amounts of Texas LNG; to our own internal U.S. energy production policy with pipelines, Oil, Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) etc.

President Trump used all of those “allied” relationships to lower global energy prices.

The bigger part of the ‘big-missed-picture‘ was how that energy strategy impacted the economies of adversaries like Russia and Iran and simultaneously supported the larger America-First economic and geopolitical space.

Obviously President Trump thinks seriously long-term, and really BIG picture.

President Trump thinks so far out in front of his opposition and detractors they genuinely cannot fathom the sequential logic behind the day-to-day granular activity.  Thinking this way is what caught China off-guard.  They did not anticipate the scope of the geopolitical economic squeeze –OUTLINED HERE– that President Trump could initiate.

Yes, in large part this is what makes President Trump so enjoyable to watch politically. Just like the American media, our international adversaries and competitors have no reference point for a U.S. President that is entirely independent from influence.  They continue to underestimate his effectiveness and ability to impact them economically.

::::Yup, smiling::::

So we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly desperate China.

China will structure the DPRK talking points, the “terms”, to set up the meetings.  This is part of how China is allowed to save face and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.

The six party talks will essentially be a modern Marshall Plan of sorts for the DPRK and Southeast Asia.  Geopolitical allies Japan, South Korea, and The United States -vs- China, Russia and North Korea.  All six nations will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy, deconflicting Southeast Asia, and reducing tension.

Eventually President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the Beijing patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.

Meanwhile, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to the representatives who all line up with their requests.

President Trump’s golf partner, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along.  The real negotiations that matter will be between the U.S. Russia and China.  Russia’s angle will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again.  China’s priority will be economic, with tough trade discussion as they negotiate to retain as much of the $320 billion U.S. trade surplus as possible and retain their one-road/one-belt initiative.

The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; a group of nations promising economic assistance (size TBD), and some official enterprise of ASEAN partners enters as an agency to oversee nuclear compliance under carefully negotiated terms.  Big Panda (Xi Jinping) promises the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein.  Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.

That’s essentially the way the economic and national security future looks today.

Then again, it might get brighter.

After all, this is President Donald Trump we’re talking about.

Aug 29 2017

Trade Stuff: Trump Refuses Chinese Steel Compromise – Mexico Sees NAFTA Collapsing, Turns to China…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 29, 2017 by

There is an saying people use to criticize President Trump based on the people around him:

“People are policy, and policy is people”…

The basic argument is that Mr. Trump can be swayed or distracted from his mission by his staff and those he hires.

This is a common catch-phrase brought about by historic and conventional wisdom.  However, when applied to President Trump, it’s also just plain wrong.

No similar cliche is appropriate for Donald Trump, nothing deters or influences him from his larger decades-long ‘America-First’ economic strategy. Nothing.

Donald Trump is the policy. There’s no assembly of advisers on economic issues that can ever sway his instinct.

Example:

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump last month rejected a Chinese proposal to cut steel overcapacity, despite the endorsement of some of his top advisers, the Financial Times said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Beijing proposed cutting steel overcapacity by 150 million tonnes by 2022 in a deal twice rejected by Trump, who instead urged advisers to find ways to impose tariffs on imports from China, the paper said, citing the sources.

The deal was endorsed by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross a week before U.S. and Chinese officials held a high-level economic dialogue, the FT added, citing a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter.

White House spokeswoman Natalie Strom declined to comment on the “purported internal discussions” between the president and his cabinet members when contacted by Reuters.  (read more)

Panda expected POTUS Trump to go for the “Wimpy strategy”? ‘We’ll pay you Tuesday (2022) for our steel access today‘.

Nope.

That’s not going to happen; now is now.  U.S. Steel industry is at a critical mass; if we wait five years for a Chinese production reduction we might not have an industry.

Even if Secretary Wilbur Ross endorsed it, he’s not going to sway POTUS Trump on an economic dynamic Trump has already mapped out.  President Trump respects Wilbur Ross; heck, the Manhattan bankers hired Ross when they were in battle with Trump over the Atlantic City Casino loans.  Donald Trump and Wilbur Ross were adversaries then.  Why do you think President Trump wanted hired-gun Ross as his Commerce Secretary?

But even “Killer” Wilburine isn’t going to hold sway when it comes to an economic issue that cuts to the central point of MAGAnomics and Making U.S. Manufacturing Great Again.  However, that’s probably where the ‘bring me tariff’s” story’s came from.

♦Second issue.  Mexico realizes they might be getting played with this NAFTA renegotiation strategy.  President Trump might indeed be letting Canada and Mexico spin their wheels only to say ‘oh well’, and walk away at a time of his choosing.   Even USTR Robert Lighthizer and Secretary Ross are not guaranteed to know in advance.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto will travel to China next week to discuss trade and investment, as Mexico looks for ways to decrease its dependence on NAFTA, especially trade with neighboring United States.

He will hold a bilateral meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping and participate in a summit of the BRICS nations, a grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, on Sept. 4 and 5, Mexico’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Pena Nieto’s visit comes as U.S., Mexican and Canadian negotiators meet Sept. 1-5 in Mexico City for a round of talks to revamp the 23-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Mexico is trying to increase trade with Latin America and Asia, and on Monday took part in the first of three days of talks in Australia aimed at reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, disrupted by the withdrawal of the United States.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to scrap NAFTA, which he has cast as killing jobs and exacerbating the U.S. deficit, and ripped into trading partners Canada and Mexico. (read more)

Mexico might think they are hedging their bets, however they are actually playing right into Donald Trump’s preferred method of confronting adversaries.   Trump prefers united opposition; it’s easier to leverage a better outcome when the mutual interests of two parties who oppose you are in alignment and plain view.

Rather than face Mexico and China individually, POTUS Trump would much rather have Mexico and China attached in economic interest. It doubles the leverage by enlarging the target; we are the customer for both; and we can play each against the other.

In addition, it’s a commonly accepted open secret that China and Mexico are already working together to exploit the U.S. market via NAFTA back doors.  Why not remove Panda mask and make it formal opposition? Much easier that way.

However, Trump is steadfast on big picture USTR Trade Deals for manufacturing, but not necessarily intransigent on specific sector details; ie. willing to give Canada and U.S. teams more negotiation time to work out the lumber issues with Commerce, prior to tariffs:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Monday announced a 2-1/2 month delay in determining final anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Canadian softwood lumber to buy more time to negotiate a settlement of the trade dispute.

The Commerce Department had previously been scheduled to announce final lumber duties on Sept. 6, a step that would have ended the current negotiating process with Canada’s government. Ross set a new deadline of no later than Nov. 14.

“I remain hopeful that we can reach a negotiated solution that satisfies the concerns of all parties,” Ross said. “This extension could provide the time needed to address the complex issues at hand and to reach an equitable and durable suspension agreement.”

U.S. and Canadian softwood lumber producers and government officials have all said they want to reach an “equitable” arrangement to settle U.S. claims that Canadian lumber is unfairly subsidized and dumped onto U.S. markets below cost. (read more)

“Taking the lumps out”, and pushing the deadline past NAFTA rounds #2 and #3…

Aug 29 2017

Trump is He His Own Worst Enemy?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted Aug 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You seem to have given up hope on Trump getting his agenda through Congress. Do you agree that the Trump presidency is a failure?

BV

ANSWER: There is no question that the powers that be are out to stop Trump at all costs. They are indeed winning. But Trump is his own worst enemy. The press know all they have to do is ask him a loaded controversial question that criticizes him and he responds in kind. If he were smart, he would play it like Hillary – lie to the press and the public and privately assure everyone that’s not her real agenda.

Trump is too honest in that regard and that hands the press all the ammunition to turn every single event into a controversy. I watched the Trump press conference and he said the Wall is needed to stop the drug trade. When CNN ran it on the nightly news, they cut his statement ending it with security, implying the racist issue rather than drugs.

On the Charlottesville  incident, clearly this demonstrates he does not understand how to deal with the press. Yes, there is the issue of both extreme sides rising.  There is no question that the dominant issue was State’s Rights. However, the white supremacists are not preaching that – they are preaching hate of blacks and Jews. The extreme left are Communists following Marx. These two sides are both responsible without question. Nevertheless, the political cartoons reflect the perception that all the evil lies on one side. Trump has to understand that the event in focus must be addressed in isolation. He should have immediately condemned the white supremacists for they openly say Trump is too liberal for them. He should have confined his remarks to just the one side and then address the left when they try to dig up graves or will no doubt protest the Columbus Day parade on October 9th in New York City.

CNN and others will fan the flames and they are creating the divide within America. Eventually, we will see the USA break up probably after 2032. Trump was elected because of the rising tension. He is a symptom, not the cause. Nevertheless, he is his own worst enemy aiding this divide.

I seriously question if Trump will get his agenda through. Even if he resigned and he was succeeded by the VP, the agenda will not be passed and therein lies the problem for the Republican Party betraying the people once again.

Aug 28 2017

Harvey Flood Impact Continues – Peak Water Anticipated Wednesday and Thursday…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 28, 2017 by

Ongoing record rainfall from TS Harvey continues to bring record flooding to East Texas.  Almost 25 inches of rain has fallen on the region following Hurricane Harvey’s landfall last weekend.  As the rain continues, weather forecasters now anticipating peak water on Wednesday or Thursday as Harvey’s rain begins impacting Southwest Louisiana. [Reuters Picture Gallery Here]  Texas is only about half-way through the anticipated impact timeline.

Thousands of rescue missions have taken place, most by ordinary citizens using private boats and vessels to retrieve stranded residents in the area.  12,000 National Guard troops are working 24/7, and volunteers from several states have arrived to supplement local, state and federal search and rescue efforts.

TEXAS – A new record daily max rainfall of 16.07 inches was set at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston on Sunday, breaking the old record of 8.32 inches from 1945, according to National Weather Service (NWS) measurements. The airport was closed in the wake of Harvey.

In the last two days, 24.44 inches of rain has fallen in Houston, the NWS reported on Monday. The rainfall from Harvey has already made this August the wettest month on record for Houston.

ABC News meteorologists expect up to 50 inches of rain to accumulate in the southeastern part of Texas by Wednesday as a result of the storm.

Harvey has so far affected about a quarter of the Texas population, or 6.8 million people in 18 counties, according to The Associated Press.

At least three people are confirmed dead in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, a number that is expected to rise.

The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) has performed more than 2,000 multi-person rescues in the Houston-Galveston area as of Monday morning. There have been more than 250 survivors from air rescues alone.

The USCG has 20 helicopters and 9 Flood Punt Teams conducting search and rescue operations in the Houston area.

The Houston Fire Department received 5,500 calls for help in the past 24-hour period, fire officials said Monday.

The Houston Police Department has completed about 2,000 rescue missions since Harvey began, Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said today on “Good Morning America.” (read more).

Aug 28 2017

President Trump Reverses Obama Executive Order Blocking Military Surplus From Police Purchase…


RE-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 28, 2017 by

Today President Trump has issued an executive order revoking a previous Executive Order #13688, put in place by President Obama, which blocked local and state law enforcement from purchasing military surplus gear.  Effective with today’s order local law enforcement will have access to U.S. military equipment.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions cited two studies which concluded that the use of military-style equipment can have positive effects, reducing citizen complaints and assaults on officers.

EXECUTIVE ORDER – By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Revocation of Executive Order 13688. Executive Order 13688 of January 16, 2015 (Federal Support for Local Law Enforcement Equipment Acquisition), is hereby revoked.

Sec. 2. Revocation of Recommendations Issued Pursuant to Executive Order 13688. The recommendations issued pursuant to Executive Order 13688 do not reflect the policy of the executive branch. All executive departments and agencies are directed, as of the date of this order and consistent with Federal law, to cease implementing those recommendations and, if necessary, to take prompt action to rescind any rules, regulations, guidelines, or policies implementing them.

Sec. 3. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

DONALD J. TRUMP – THE WHITE HOUSE, August 28, 2017.

Overall, the militarization of our local and state police forces presents a complex dynamic. On one hand we want our law enforcement to have the most effective tools needed to deal with threats and public safety. On the other hand seeing an MRAP vehicle in the local police parade on the 4th of July is not something to be cheering about.

This can be a slippery slope if not well managed, and local people need to be engaged with their public officials to express valid opinions and concerns.

Aug 28 2017

North Korea Launches Another Missile – Attempts Escalation By Crossing Northern Japan…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 28, 2017 by

Beijing (China) is attempting to “trigger” President Trump’s internal neo-con and militaristic opposition. Stay frosty, avoid emotional reports demanding military engagement, and remain steady with a high altitude perspective.

Multiple reports now confirming that North Korea has conducted a missile test. The flight path escalates the issues by crossing over part of Northern Japan. In essence, Beijing China just threw an elbow at President Trump. [The likely “Why” follows breaking report]

TOKYO (Reuters) – North Korea fired a missile that passed over northern Japan early on Tuesday, the Japanese government said. The government’s J-Alert warning system advised people in the area to take precautions, but public broadcaster NHK said there was no sign of damage.

The Japanese military did not attempt to shoot down the missile, which passed over Japanese territory around 6:06 a.m. local time (2106 GMT). (Reuters)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, speaking to reporters in Tokyo after the launch, said the missile appeared to have passed over airspace and that the government was urgently collecting intelligence on the incident and doing everything to ensure the safety of its citizens, according to remarks broadcast on NHK, Bloomberg News reports.

Beijing China controls Kim Jong-un. Period.

Looking at the big picture, there’s no single event being responded to by this missile launch; rather, what we are seeing is a reaction to: A.) the cumulative effect of very strategic recent geopolitical maneuvering by President Trump (Venezuela, Pakistan, India etc); and, B.) the words spoken by the administration -including Trump, tillerson and Haley- that are removing China’s panda face.

Remember, China doesn’t draw a distinction between Peace and War.  It’s yin/yang. All actions toward China’s larger objectives are viewed as natural to achieve victory.  War or Peace it makes no difference to them; they don’t accept mutually beneficial outcomes. Either they win, or they lose.  All action to achieve victory is part of same world view.

When you accept this approach, you being to understand what happens when a nation built upon such outlooks feels squeezed. They fight back harder. To them it’s a zero-sum battle.

China’s objective is conquest.  China’s tool for conquest is economics.  President Trump entire geopolitical strategy of using economics in a similar way is an existential threat to China’s endeavor.  Communist Beijing calls the proverbial shots.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

♦Squeeze #1. Trump and Mnuchin just sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue.  Venezuela now needs more money.  China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding.  Now China and Russia will need to loan more, directly.

♦Squeeze #2.  China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal.  Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has driven down energy prices. Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria.  Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent.

♦Squeeze #3. Trump and Tillerson just put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan.  Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China.

♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India.  President Trump has just embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals.  The play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India.  That’s a big play.

♦Squeeze #4.  President Trump has launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property.  This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.

♦Squeeze #5.  President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer are renegotiating NAFTA.  One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

♦Squeeze #5. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. conclude with NAFTA renegotiation.

♦Squeeze #6.  President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

♦Squeeze #7.  President Trump has formed an economic and national security aliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan.   It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired today over the Northern part of Japan.  Quite simply, Beijing told him to.

Add all of this up, and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical strategy toward China.  The best part of all of it – is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of all of “it”, coming.

Just like Trump’s economic council (a bunch of globalists and Wall Streeters) thinking they were pulling POTUS Trump away from “America First”, only to realize he was simply giving them that impression so that he could advance his agenda….

By the time they realized, it was too late.  Well, so too did China not quite realize the scope and totality of how well thought out and strategic President Trump’s geopolitical economic doctrine really is.

You know why?  Because President Trump doesn’t tell anyone what the final product is, they only know the piece of the puzzle they carry. The picture, the big objective, is inside his head and he doesn’t share it with anyone.  That’s what living amid the Apex Predators in brutal rabid-dog-eat-rabid-dog Manhattan teaches you.  Oh, and he ain’t flinching or moderating his will one bit in carrying it out and putting it all together.

What happens when you surprise Beijing China with a massive awakening that suddenly has them peering toward a horizon showing potential economic defeat?

Well, for that answer we go full circle and remember how China perceives any action as a natural evolution of struggle, so long as it takes them toward victory…

Stay steady.  Avoid the chaff and countermeasures.  It’s all about the economics and the tectonic financial plates he’s shifting.

Aug 28 2017

Next Target for North Korea Sept 11th/12th


Armstrong Economics Blog/North Korea

Re-Posted Aug 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Our models seem to be right on target for the escalation of military threats from North Korea. We gave a out two targets for the opening of  window for a conflict on our war model to watch are August 12/13, 2017 and September 11/12, 2017. We must be on guard for this is the prime period where a confrontation could emerge.

This time he fired a missile over Japan. True, he could hit South Korea and Japan before they could launch any counter-measure. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called the “most serious and grave” threat to the country. There is no question he is doing this to show strength to retain control. There are always people within who would assassinate him if he appeared weak.

We expect tensions to rise into the next target September 11/12th

Aug 28 2017

North v South & Revising History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Aug 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Robert E. Lee, before the outbreak of the war, was overwhelmingly regarded as the finest military mind in the U.S. army. Winfield Scott offered him command of all Union forces at the outbreak of hostilities. But he chose allegiance to his state of Virginia, rather than the Federal government. He didn’t fight for slavery. He freed his slaves. He was fighting for states’ rights. He was an honorable God fearing noble man. Stonewall Jackson was an extremely religious man who waged war with a passion, but also taught Sunday School to slaves. Lee and Jackson must be viewed in the context of the 19th century rather than being judged by the standards of the 21st century.

The vast majority of Confederate soldiers who did the fighting and dying during that war didn’t own slaves. They weren’t fighting to maintain slavery. They were fighting because a foreign army had invaded their land. In 1860 this nation was more an amalgamation of states than a centralized government. States still had a tremendous amount of power and leeway to run their states the way they chose. The ever increasing power of a central authority occurred during and after the Civil War. The South were not the bad guys. Their leaders, generals and soldiers were not evil. They were Americans.

The revisionist history now being peddled by the left wing media and their non-thinking acolytes lacks a factual basis, historical context and a true understanding of history. The Civil War was the climax of decades of tension between the North and the South over states’ rights, economic policies, slavery, and a myriad of other complex issues. Examined within the context of generational theory, it was a Fourth Turning that was unavoidable. It was a crucial important event in U.S. history. It wasn’t the shameful episode portrayed by the brain dead faux journalists babbling on CNN and MSNBC

….

RJB

REPLY: You are correct. Robert E. Lee wrote to the New York Times to correct what was written and he said before the war he would free his slaves within five years. Indeed, even George Washington owned slaves. You are correct that slavery was only one issue. The majority of the issue was considered to be States Rights, which was supposed to be the cornerstone of the union. Regardless of the issue be it slavery to abortion or marijuana, the issue of States Rights has been a key debate. Does the Federal government have the right to impose a law upon all States?

In District of Columbia v. Heller (2008), the United States Supreme Court ruled that gun ownership is an individual right under the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution, and the District of Columbia could not completely ban gun ownership by law-abiding private citizens.  In Martin v. Hunter’s Lessee, 14 U.S. 304 (1816), and Cohens v. Virginia, 19 U.S. 264 (1821), the Supreme Court held that the Supremacy Clause and the judicial power granted in Article III give the Supreme Court the ultimate power to review state court decisions involving issues arising under the Constitution and laws.

The Supremacy Clause has effectively nullified State’s Rights. Justice Scalia is famous for writing a letter on the subject of seceding from the union. He wrote:  “I cannot imagine that such a question could ever reach the Supreme Court.” Scalia added: “To begin with, the answer is clear. If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede.”

The overwhelming number of confederate soldiers were not slave owners. They were indeed fighting for States Rights, not to own slaves they did not have. The “rich” plantation owners had the slaves – not the individual Confederate soldier. As always, everything is reduced to a single cause and effect when the issues were far more complicated. The capital is Washington , DC, only because Thomas Jefferson would not support Hamilton’s idea of a national debt unless the capitol was moves to the center of the country from New York City. It was always a contention between North and South underlying the current events, which is brewing once again.

This is the seed of the Civil War I have been warning we can move into. These extremists are now trying top stop Columbus Day parades, blow up Mt. Rushmore, and they are trying to dig up graves of Confederate soldiers to chop up their bodies. This is going completely insane. CNN and others are fueling this discontent and supporting this type of revisionist activity exactly as ISIS and the Taliban do in the Middle East – destroy history because they disagree with the past.

Aug 27 2017

House Speaker Paul Ryan Stands Against Arpaio Pardon…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 26, 2017 by

Weasels gotta weasel.  Jeff Flake, John McCain and now House Speaker Paul Ryan all stand in opposition to President Trump pardoning Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

More fuel for the Big Ugly:

Washington (CNN) – House Speaker Paul Ryan disagrees with President Donald Trump’s decision Friday to pardon Sheriff Joe Arpaio, his spokesman said Saturday.

“The Speaker does not agree with this decision,” spokesman Doug Andres said in a statement. “Law enforcement officials have a special responsibility to respect the rights of everyone in the United States. We should not allow anyone to believe that responsibility is diminished by this pardon.” (read more)

Aug 26 2017

Understanding Gary Cohn -vs- President Donald Trump…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 26, 2017 by

Recently there has been a great deal of opinion on Chief Economic Advisor to President Trump and his recent critique of President Trump’s comments surrounding the events in Charlottesville, Virginia.  For many people the latest Cohn -vs- Trump scenario is just more proof that President Trump is succumbing to influence/pressure from the wrong side of the ideological spectrum.

This outline is intended to directly speaking toward those concerns.  However, to understand the dynamics of Gary Cohn -vs- Donald Trump it is first necessary to understand the perspective of Gary Cohn and President Trump.

Few people have an appropriate understanding of the scale, scope and seismic shift President Trump is delivering to the world of geopolitical financial influence.  A recent comment by someone who appears to understand the dynamic reads thus:

Enjoy this because we will never see this again. You’ll never see your president shift the pendulum the way Donald Trump is. The international market of high-pressure real estate development and financing incorporates every facet of business activity known to humanity and no President we have ever had has been more prepared to do what needs to be done then President Donald J Trump. In addition to trying to right the ship he has to navigate waters filled with landmines and torpedoes and those firing the torpedoes claim to be Americans. God bless this man.  ~ FromSeaToShiningSea

That’s a good a place as any to elevate the discussion, review the historic nature of the participants, and comprehend the dynamics behind: Manhattan -vs- Queens; Global finance -vs- National interests; Wall Street -vs- Main Street; and ultinately Gary Cohn -vs- Donald Trump.

I’m not going to go through the history of Donald Trump’s ambition to head into Manhattan as a property developer and the warnings from his Father Fred Trump about leaving Queens to engage with the sharks; the “killers”; most readers have some familiarity with the story.

Suffice to say the young man who grew up picking up good nails on job sites while learning the value of a dollar, decided he would cross boroughs into the most Machiavellian cut-throat and dangerous real-estate in the world, and conquer the killers.  He decided to prove his merit in the brutal world, amid the most brutal people, in a place where survival meant crushing your opposition before they crushed you.  Against all odds and adversity Trump scrapped, ascended and finally conquered.

Why does that matter now?

The answer is simple really. The same elemental forces Donald Trump fought and defeated for three four decades carry the same principle opposition today.  The difference is the scale is much larger, the opposition even bigger, and the consequences far greater.

Wall Street -vs- Main Street doesn’t even begin to accurately assign the scope of current opposition.  Wall St. -vs- Main St was the appropriate context to understand the 2016 presidential election.  However, the election is over, Trump won.  Now President Trump is engaged in an epic economic battle between ‘Global Multinational Financial Interests’ -vs- ‘America-First Economic Interests’.

Gary Cohn was the President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs for eleven years prior to joining President Trump as Chief Economic Advisor.  Gary Cohn is a financial apex predator amid a closed circle of well known multinational apex predators.

[Why Cohn joined Trump, is a weird dynamic, but at it’s core there’s a dichotomy few have noted.  Apex Financial Cohn came out of a blue collar pool within U.S. Steel, a Main Street enterprise.  Additionally, Cohn’s last twenty years of Wall Street experience shifted him onto a unique and specific track to be the top candidate for Chairman of the Federal Reserve (after Yellen).]

President Trump has been thinking about the cancer within the globalist advancement for about the same length of time Cohn was ascending amid the global financial elite.  Review interviews from 1980’s, congressional testimony from 1990’s, all the way through Trump’s 2015 announcement to run for President and you’ll see the exact same perspectives repeated for three decades.  In short, Trump knows the problem – and he’s obviously been thinking about how to deal with it for a long time.

Obviously ‘dealing with it’ means confronting the predators within the systems of greatest familiarity to Gary Cohn; not only confronting them, but deconstructing much of their enmeshed and globalist high-finance structures.  Candidate Trump knew President Trump was going to be disrupting a financial system – that carries risks of economic failure if not handled carefully.

That’s where the value of Gary Cohn comes in.  Cohn represents a stabilizing and known commodity amid the apex predators who President Trump would be confronting.  Trump needed to keep the financial system satiated and stable while creating the underlying architecture of the America-First economy.  Trump’s economic policies benefit Main Street over Wall Street and reverse three decades of Wall Street favoritism by DC fiscal policy.

President Trump needed, and needs, a steady overall financial system while the economic policy shift is taking place. Having Cohn on board while the economic shift is happening keeps the people within the system from reacting too heavily to the shifts.  That’s Cohn’s value to Trump.

President Trump’s value to Gary Cohn, and those of like-minded association, comes from their anticipation of a smooth transition in Federal Reserve Chairmanship.  However, much like Trump’s approach to conquering Manhattan – he’s also intent on severely, and yet subtlety, changing the geography of the predators themselves.  This truism is unmistakable when you look at current economic path and the way-points already passed. Things are definitively changing, bit by planned and sequential bit.

Within the circle of key Donald Trump America-First economic principals you find Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.  These two people are critical for President Trump as trade and finance act in concert with the larger America-First policy.  Ross and Mnuchin are to economic policy as Mattis and Tillerson are to foreign policy.

Additionally, people who think that President Trump is likely swayed by the influence of Gary Cohn should have noticed something recently that would put those fears to rest.  However, I totally understand why most would miss it – the media never shares it.

Think of the social circle of Gary Cohn, and the current business network of Mr. Cohn, against the backdrop of his being President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs for the past 11 years.   Put yourself in his shoes for the next few paragraphs.

♦Three months ago Goldman Sachs purchased almost $3 billion in bonds from Venezuela state owned national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA.  At a discount rate of .30 on the dollar.  Goldman Sachs joined other PDVSA multinational bond holders like BlackRock, T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, JPMorgan Chase and Ashmore.

These are massive multinational banking and financial players.  However, even for Goldman Sachs a three billion bond purchase is a big stake in PDVSA.

♦Now, – What did President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin do yesterday?  President Trump dropped and executive order MOAB on PDVSA.

(Via LA Times) The Trump administration on Friday slapped sweeping financial sanctions on Venezuela, barring banks from any new financial deals with the government or state-run oil giant PDVSA.

[…] The new actions prohibit dealings in new debt and equity issued by the government of Venezuela and its state oil company. It also prohibits dealings in certain existing bonds owned by the Venezuelan public sector, as well as dividend payments to the government of Venezuela. (read more)

(Via AP) The fourth round of sanctions announced by the Trump administration is the strongest yet. They prohibit U.S. financial institutions from engaging in any new financial deals with the Venezuelan government or state-run oil company PDVSA.

This includes any transactions involving new debt or equity issued by the Venezuelan government or PDVSA. It also bans PDVSA’s American subsidiary, Citgo, from sending dividends back to Venezuela as well as the trading of two bonds recently issued by Maduro’s government to circumvent the growing financial stranglehold.

[…]  The sanctions will make it harder and costlier for Venezuela to scrounge up badly needed financing, raising the possibility that it will have to stop payment on its ballooning foreign debt. The government and PDVSA have about $4 billion in debt payments coming due before the end of the year but only $9.7 billion in international reserves on hand, the vast majority consisting of gold ingots that are hard to trade immediately for cash.

So far Venezuela has shown itself to be a reliable borrower, prioritizing bond payments to foreign lenders even while Venezuelans suffer widespread food and medicine shortages. It also has options in allies Russia and China. In the past both have stepped in to fill financial holes, albeit under increasingly exacting terms requiring Venezuela to put up part of the world’s biggest oil reserves and even a 49 percent stake in Citgo as collateral. (more)

How are all those multinational bond holders going to get their PDVSA bond returns back if the Venezuela government can’t issue additional new bonds or engage in new financial deals on behalf of its state run oil enterprise?

President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin have just increased the risk to all of the Venezuela bond holders. As SayIt2016 Rightly Explains:

[…] All of the holders of these bonds are now dependent on the deal that President Trump strikes with Venezuela. They literally are at his mercy. BlackRock, T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, JPMorgan Chase and Ashmore etc., as well as other countries that hold these bonds as well.

President Trump could identify all of the entities and the total amount of exposure they have on their bonds (dollar wise) whether it be Private holders, Security holders or Gov holders that hold these bonds and determine what their business product or areas of influence are.

The one holding all of the cards (TRUMP) gets to make the rules. They want something tangible from Trump, well he might want something tangible from them. Trump gets what he wants or they do not get what they want; either way the US wins.

Yep.  You see President Trump is not afraid to engage those multinational financial predators and/or make their paper finances worth-less, or worthless if need be.  He’s not beholden to them or anyone else.  Trump, Mnuchin and Ross are fearlessly engaged on America First and focused like a laser on achieving that objective.

Now think about Economic Advisor Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs COO and current personal friend of Lloyd Blankfein CEO of Goldman Sachs, sitting in the room with President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin on Wednesday and Thursday while hearing about the upcoming sanctions against Venezuela and PDVSA that Trump was going to deliver via Executive Order, and announce on Friday.  Oh, and Gary Cohn can’t say a word about it to anyone outside of the room.

If that’s not a prime example of how President Trump, Mnuchin and Ross are going about the business of America-First and Gary Cohn being completely irrelevant on the actions and policies, I don’t know a better current example to provide you.

Those Wall Street and Multinational interests that everyone rightly reviews through the prism of globalist advancement are being confronted and dismantled as part of the larger America First economic policy.  Gary Cohn has a useful purpose in that his presence settles the nerves of Trump’s domestic economic adversaries, but Cohn’s presence doesn’t change the policy direction of America First at all.

Those who hold an adverse interest position to Trump’s America really didn’t think he was serious about this MAGA economic plan.  Like all other times in the history of Donald Trump his opposition has completely underestimated him; but what they are really underestimating is his will.

In the battle of Queens -vs- Manhattan, Main Street -vs- Wall Street, Nationalism -vs- Globalism, or Trump -vs- Cohn…

…. just like Donald Trump did before, he’s winning.