There are Trillions of Dollars at Stake. CTH has been highlighting the hidden motivation for years. Opposition is all about the economics folks.
Against President Trump’s promise to renegotiate trade deals, withdraw from TPP and TTIP, walk away from the fraudulent economic scheme within the Paris Climate Treaty, and renegotiate or pull out of NAFTA. Well,… it’s called a strategy session folks:
President Trump uses economic leverage as a national security policy; and to understand who opposes President Trump specifically because of the economic leverage he creates, it becomes important to understand the objectives of the global and financial elite who run and operate the institutions. The Big Club.
That is: global financial exploitation of national markets:
♦Multinational corporations purchase controlling interests in various national elements of developed industrial western nations.
♦The Multinational Corporations making the purchases are underwritten by massive global financial institutions, multinational banks.
♦The Multinational Banks and the Multinational Corporations then utilize lobbying interests to manipulate the internal political policy of the targeted nation state(s).
♦With control over the targeted national industry or interest, the multinationals then leverage export of the national asset (exfiltration) through trade agreements structured to the benefit of lesser developed nation states – where they have previously established a proactive financial footprint.
Against the backdrop of President Trump confronting China; and against the backdrop of NAFTA being renegotiated; revisiting the economic influences within the import/export dynamic will help conceptualize the issues at the heart of the matter. There are a myriad of interests within each trade sector that make specific explanation very challenging; however, here’s the basic outline.
For three decades economic “globalism” has advanced, quickly. Everyone accepts this statement, yet few actually stop to ask who and what are behind this – and why?
Influential people with vested financial interests in the process have sold a narrative that global manufacturing, global sourcing, and global production was the inherent way of the future. The same voices claimed the American economy was consigned to become a “service-driven economy.”
What was always missed in these discussions is that advocates selling this global-economy message have a vested financial and ideological interest in convincing the information consumer it is all just a natural outcome of economic progress.
It’s not natural at all. It is a process that is entirely controlled, promoted and utilized by large conglomerates and massive financial corporations.
Again, I’ll try to retain the larger altitude perspective without falling into the traps of the esoteric weeds. I freely admit this is tough to explain and I may not be successful.
Bulletpoint #1: ♦ Multinational corporations purchase controlling interests in various national elements of developed industrial western nations.
This is perhaps the most challenging to understand. In essence, thanks specifically to the way the World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1995, national companies expanded their influence into multiple nations, across a myriad of industries and economic sectors (energy, agriculture, raw earth minerals, etc.). This is the basic underpinning of national companies becoming multinational corporations.
Think of these multinational corporations as global entities now powerful enough to reach into multiple nations -simultaneously- and purchase controlling interests in a single economic commodity.
A historic reference point might be the original multinational enterprise, energy via oil production. (Exxon, Mobil, BP, etc.)
However, in the modern global world, it’s not just oil; the resource and product procurement extends to virtually every possible commodity and industry. From the very visible (wheat/corn) to the obscure (small minerals, and even flowers).
Bulletpoint #2 ♦ The Multinational Corporations making the purchases are underwritten by massive global financial institutions, multinational banks.
During the past several decades national companies merged. The largest lemon producer company in Brazil, merges with the largest lemon company in Mexico, merges with the largest lemon company in Argentina, merges with the largest lemon company in the U.S., etc. etc. National companies, formerly of one nation, become “continental” companies with control over an entire continent of nations.
…. or it could be over several continents or even the entire world market of Lemon/Widget production. These are now multinational corporations. They hold interests in specific segments (this example lemons) across a broad variety of individual nations.
National laws on Monopoly building are not the same in all nations. But most are not as structured as the U.S.A or other more developed nations (with more laws). During the acquisition phase, when encountering a highly developed nation with monopoly laws, the process of an umbrella corporation might be needed to purchase the interests within a specific nation. The example of Monsanto applies here.
With control of the majority of actual lemons the multinational corporation now holds a different set of financial values than a local farmer or national market. This is why commodities exchanges are essentially dead. In the aggregate the mercantile exchange is no longer a free or supply-based market; it is now a controlled market exploited by mega-sized multinational corporations.
Instead of the traditional ‘supply/demand’ equation determining prices, the corporations look to see what nations can afford what prices. The supply of the controlled product is then distributed to the country according to their ability to afford the price. This is how the corporation maximizes it’s profits.
Back to the lemons. A corporation might hold the rights to the majority of the lemon production in Brazil, Argentina and California/Florida. The price the U.S. consumer pays for the lemons is directed by the amount of inventory (distribution) the controlling corporation allows in the U.S.
If the U.S. harvest is abundant, they will export the product to keep the U.S. consumer spending at peak or optimal price. A U.S. customer might pay $2 for a lemon, a Mexican customer might pay .50¢, and a Canadian $1.25.
The bottom line issue is the national supply (in this example ‘harvest/yield’) is not driving the national price because the supply is now controlled by massive multinational corporations.
The mistake people often make is calling this a “global commodity” process. In the modern era this “global commodity” phrase is particularly BS.
A true global commodity is a process of individual nations harvesting/creating a similar product and bringing that product to a global market. Individual nations each independently engaged in creating a similar product.
Under modern globalism this process no longer takes place. It’s a complete fraud. Currently, massive multinational corporations control the majority of product inside each nation and therefore control the entire global product market and price.
EXAMPLE: Part of the lobbying in the food industry is to advocate for the expansion of U.S. taxpayer benefits to underwrite the costs of the domestic food products they control. By lobbying DC these multinational corporations get congress and policy-makers to expand the basis of who can use EBT and SNAP benefits (state reimbursement rates).
Expanding the federal subsidy for food purchases is part of the corporate profit dynamic. With increased taxpayer subsidies, the food price controllers can charge more domestically and export more of the product internationally. Taxes, via subsidies, go into their profit margins. The corporations then use a portion of those profits in contributions to the politicians. It’s a circle of money.
In highly developed nations this multinational corporate process requires the corporation to purchase the domestic political process (as above) with individual nations allowing the exploitation in varying degrees. As such, the corporate lobbyists pay hundreds of millions to politicians for changes in policies and regulations; one sector, one product, or one industry at a time. These are specialized lobbyists.
EXAMPLE: The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS)
CFIUS is an inter-agency committee authorized to review transactions that could result in control of a U.S. business by a foreign person (“covered transactions”), in order to determine the effect of such transactions on the national security of the United States.
CFIUS operates pursuant to section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended by the Foreign Investment and National Security Act of 2007 (FINSA) (section 721) and as implemented by Executive Order 11858, as amended, and regulations at 31 C.F.R. Part 800.
The CFIUS process has been the subject of significant reforms over the past several years. These include numerous improvements in internal CFIUS procedures, enactment of FINSA in July 2007, amendment of Executive Order 11858 in January 2008, revision of the CFIUS regulations in November 2008, and publication of guidance on CFIUS’s national security considerations in December 2008 (more)
Bulletpoint #4 ♦ With control over the targeted national industry or interest, the multinationals then leverage export of the national asset (exfiltration) through trade agreements structured to the benefit of lesser developed nation states – where they have previously established a proactive financial footprint.
The process of charging the U.S. consumer more for a product, that under normal national market conditions would cost less, is a process called exfiltration of wealth.
It is never discussed.
To control the market price some contracted product may even be secured and shipped with the intent to allow it to sit idle (or rot). It’s all about controlling the price and maximizing the profit equation. To gain the same $1 profit a widget multinational might have to sell 20 widgets in El-Salvador (.25¢ each), or two widgets in the U.S. ($2.50/each).
Think of the process like the historic reference of OPEC (Oil Producing Economic Countries). Only in the modern era massive corporations are playing the role of OPEC and it’s not oil being controlled, it’s almost everything.
Again, this is highlighted in the example of taxpayers subsidizing the food sector (EBT, SNAP etc.), the corporations can charge U.S. consumers more. Ex. more beef is exported, red meat prices remain high at the grocery store, but subsidized U.S. consumers can afford the high prices. Of course if you are not receiving food payment assistance (middle-class) you can’t eat the steaks because you can’t afford them. (Not accidentally, it’s the same scheme in the ObamaCare healthcare system)
Individual flower growers in Florida go out of business because they didn’t join the global market of flower growers (controlled market) by multinational corporate flower growers in Columbia and South America, who have an umbrella company registered in Mexico allowing virtually unrestricted access to the U.S. market under NAFTA.
Agriculturally, multinational corporate Monsanto says: ‘all your harvests are belong to us‘. Contract with us, or you lose because we can control the market price of your end product. Downside is that once you sign that contract, you agree to terms that are entirely created by the financial interests of the larger corporation; not your farm.
The multinational agriculture lobby is massive. We willingly feed the world as part of the system; but you as a grocery customer pay more per unit at the grocery store because domestic supply no longer determines domestic price.
Within the agriculture community the (feed-the-world) production export factor also drives the need for labor. Labor is a cost. The multinational corps have a vested interest in low labor costs. Ergo, open border policies. (ie. willingly purchased republicans not supporting border wall etc.).
This corrupt economic manipulation/exploitation applies over multiple sectors, and even in the sub-sector of an industry like steel. China/India purchases the raw material, ore, then sells the finished good back to the global market at a discount. Or it could be rubber, or concrete, or plastic, or frozen chicken parts etc.
The ‘America First’ Trump-Trade Doctrine upsets the entire construct of this multinational export/control dynamic. Team Trump focus exclusively on bilateral trade deals, with specific trade agreements targeted toward individual nations (not national corporations). ‘America-First’ is also specific policy at a granular product level looking out for the national interests of the United States, U.S. workers, U.S. companies and U.S. consumers.
Under President Trump’s Trade positions, balanced and fair trade with strong regulatory control over national assets, exfiltration of U.S. national wealth is essentially stopped.
This puts many current multinational corporations, globalists who previously took a stake-hold in the U.S. economy with intention to export the wealth, in a position of holding contracted interest of an asset they can no longer exploit.
Perhaps now we understand better how massive multi-billion multinational corporations and institutions are aligned against President Trump.
♦The Modern Third Dimension in American Economics – HERE
♦The “Fed” Can’t Figure out the New Economics – HERE
♦Proof “America-First” has disconnected Main Street from Wall Street – HERE
♦Treasury Secretary Mnuchin begins creating a Parallel Banking System – HERE
♦How Trump Economic Policy is Interacting With The Stock Market – HERE
♦How Multinationals have Exported U.S. Wealth – HERE
At the end of the first round of NAFTA renegotiations, Sunday, I shared a confidence level of “3” on a 10 point scale; as to whether a deal was likely. [Explained Here]
On Monday Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer debriefed President Trump the on the results of the first round (5 days). USTR Lighthizer and Secretary Ross were both at the White House during the eclipse viewing.
On Tuesday, following that briefing, President Trump shares his opinion on NAFTA. WATCH:
Remember, this statement follows the discussions with Ross and Lighthizer a day earlier. It would appear that President Trump did not like the information they shared. Knowing that POTUS Trump isn’t going to accept or compromise on an economic deal that doesn’t fix the issues; and knowing he’s wanted to walk away from NAFTA in favor of bilateral trade deals from the outset; I might need to lower my confidence to a “1” or lower…
Aug 21, 2017 by
1) KILLED TPP
2) $350+ billion deal with Saudi Arabia ($110 billion in arms $250 billion in trade/investment) creating 100,000’s of jobs in both countries, historic.
3) Pulled out of PARIS ACCORD
4) Had a major victory on sugar exports from Mexico. The agreement increases the price at which raw and refined sugar is sold to Mexican mills and reduces Mexico’s refined sugar exports to the United States. Keeps Mexico from dumping raw sugar on the US and increasing the amount of refined sugar. Will help our sugar industry and the US sugar mills that produce refined sugar from raw sugar.
5) Notified Congress of NAFTA renegotiation on May 18th. Talks can start 90 days later on Aug 16th, 2017
6) China Trade deal opening up beef and LNG gas as well as giving a way to get 1 billion Chinese credit scores so the USA can offer them credit. Trade deal was done in record time.
7) Sec Ross has slapped more than $2 billion in fines on China and Canada for illegal trade practices.
8) the U.S. Department of Agriculture has reached agreement with Chinese officials on final details of a protocol to allow the U.S. to begin the beef exports to China (6/12/17). The first beef has been imported to China (06/30/17 and Sec Predue cut and ate a USDA prime rib in China)
9) REOPENING KORUS trade deal per Sarah Sanders press briefing on 06/30/17)
1) Unemployment rate 4.3% U-3 and 8.4% U6
2) Proposed a $1 Trillion infrastructure project
3) Stock Market at Historic Highs (as of 6/11/17 Dow up 16% NASDAQ up 19.5% since election day)
4) US homes prices climb at fastest pace In 3 years per CNBC.
5) Jobless claims hit 28 year low in Apr
6) OPEC broken can no longer set prices due to USA energy production unleashed
7) Secured $50 billion investment from Japan
8) Secured $20 billion investment from Exxon in Gulf coast
9) Gasoline at $1.95/gallon in Central NC (lowest price at this time of year since 2005 for entire US 06/30/17)
10) Repealed 14 Obama regulations via CRA saving $ billions in costs to the economy
11) Atlanta Fed sees 3.6% growth in 2nd qrt
12) Federal debt is 130,455,438,424.64 billion LOWER since Dec 30th 2016 (as of 06/24/17) per treasurydirect.gov
13) Federal surplus was $182 billion at end of Apr (unexpected)
14) Consumer and business confidence at record highs
15) North Dakota experiencing a boom since Dakota access pipeline finished (500,000 Barrels now flowing through pipeline per day)
16) Keystone pipeline construction ongoing
17) Mining, steel and oil/gas jobs booming
18) Mines reopening
19) 600,000+ JOBS created since Jan1st (per BLS) 800,000+ per ADP
20) Directed Dept. of Commerce to streamline Federal permitting processes for domestic manufacturing
21) Launched United States-Canada Council for Advancement of Women Entrepreneurs and Business Leaders with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau
22) Cut 1.6 billion costs from Air Force one and F-35 airplanes.
23) Regulatory freeze on all federal governmental agencies
24) Making agencies cut 2 regulations for each new one.
25) Saw the opening of the first NEW COAL MINE IN PA in YEARS creating 70 jobs at the mine and more than 400+ supporting jobs in the community. (06/10/17) Per FoxNews.
26) Coal for Central Appalachian coal has increased 8.95% this year. Increasing the economy for SE OH, SW PA, VA, MD and WVA
27) Maine unemployment at 32 year low. The State Dept. of unemployment forced to lay off people because of lack of claims
28) Food Stamp spending is down almost $1 billion per month and $12 billion per year per USAD
29) Black unemployment at a 17 year low in May at 7.5% per Bureau of Labor Statistics. (06/24/17)
30) Coal mining rose 19% in USA for first 5 months per US energy Department
31) 1st qrt. GDP revised up to 1.4%
32) USA now pumping 500k more barrels of oil per day since Dec 31st. Now at 9.3 million bpd. 3rd in the world only 1.2 million bpd. behind Russia and Saudi Arabia
33) USA is the world leader in natural gas production
34) Institute for Supply Management says its manufacturing index rose to 57.8 last month from 54.9 in May. Anything above 50 signals that factory activity is increasing (07/03/17)
35) 15 of 18 manufacturing industries posted growth in JUNE per ISM (07/03/17)
36) The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) statistics for fiscal year (FY) 2017 show that food stamp enrollment decreased nationwide by 2.9 percent over the past year (07/05/17)
1) Authorized DHS to hire 10,000 ICE officers & 5,000 border patrol agents
2) Secured funding for more immigration judges for deportation cases in 2017 budget
3) Ended “catch and release policy
4) ICE arrests up 40% as of May
5) ICE arrests are 75% criminal illegals as of May
6) Ice Arrests for non-criminal illegals up 150% as of May due to sanctuary cities polices making Ice go to the home instead of the court houses
7) 70%+ decrease in border crossings of illegal aliens in JAN, FEB, MAR, APR) 64% down in MAY
8) No Cuban refugees seen by Coast Guard in Apr first time in 7 years
9) Open bidding and plans submitted for the WALL. Finalists selected, prototypes to be unveiled this summer per CBP official/Breitbart news.
10) 6ft chain linked fences being replaced by 20ft hardened steel fencing at border
11) More than 1400 gang members have been arrested by ICE
12) This year the U.S. has already deported 398 MS-13 gang members back to El Salvador – compared to only 534 for all of 2016
13) Texas has passed a law outlawing sanctuary cities
14) Foods stamp requests by ILLEGALS D O W N
15) The Trump administration has moved to reopen the cases of hundreds of illegal immigrants who had been given a reprieve from deportation by Obama
16) Per Sec Kelly Plans are to start building the WALL by end of summer.
17) Travel ban EO cut refugees to 50,000. Has been blocked by courts so far.
18) per Breitbart Sec Kelly has refused to expand H2-B visa program in FY 2017 Update 06/22/17 Sec Kelly will expand the H2-b visa program for a limited number of businesses that are in danger of failing and can’t find employment per Breitbart.
19) Pres Trump Sec of DHS ended DAPA (06/16/17)
20) Refugees dropped by half entering the USA in first three months of Pres Trump’s admin over Obama’s admin. (6/24/17 per Washington Times)
21) Per Pres Trump 6,000 MS-13 gang members arrested in first 5 months
22) Per Sec Kelly 66,000 mostly criminal illegals arrested by ICE in first 5 months
23) Kate’s Law passed the House 06/29/17)
24) No Sanctuary Cities Law Passed the House (06/29/17)
25) Illegal immigrant arrests in San Diego, Ca have more than doubled from 2016 and 2015 figures per the San Diego Union Tribune (07/04/17)
26) In a reversal of Obama administration policy, federal prosecutors with Operation Streamline are filing criminal charges against migrants the first time they are caught crossing the border illegally. Per Tucson.com and Breitbart (07/05/17)
27) Refugee Arrivals Plummet in Week After Supreme Court Ruling on Trump Executive Order per Breitbart and Department of State website (07/05/17)
ON LAW AND ORDER
1) Authorities have arrested an unprecedented number of sexual predators involved in child sex trafficking rings in the United States and around the world
2) DOJ issues new sentencing guideline to enforce tougher laws on drug dealers
3) DOJ stops Obama’s slush funds
4) Massive raids on gangs going on across the nation
5) More arrests for voter fraud in 2017 then anytime in recent history.
6) DOJ and DHS ordered to take on transnational criminal gangs
7) No tolerance for violence against LEO with a signed EO
8) Fired FBI director who is and was unstable
9) Nominated Wray for FBI director
10) Nominated 21 conservative judges to the federal court
11) AG Sessions dismantling the Obama legal doctrine brick by brick at the DOJ per Bloomberg (06/29/17)
12) Operation Broken Heart lead by the DOJ arrested over 1,012 sexual child predators across the nation bringing 69,000 cases against them. (06/28/17)
13) AG Sessions has asked for an extra $26 million to hire 300 prosecutors devoted to gang violence and deportation cases per Bloomberg (06/29/17)
14) DOJ drops case against the Washington Redskins (06/30/17) the era of Political correctness is over.
15) AG Sessions condemned murder of NYPD on (07/05/17) calling the attack cowardly.
ON CONGRESSIONAL AND EXECUTIVE ACTION
1) Confirmed Gorsuch to SCOTUS
2) Signed 39+ Laws so far
3) Signed more than 30+ Executive Orders
4) Reviewing the Obama land grabs
5) Reviewing and repealing Obama’s regulations
6) Obamacare repeal and replace passed House stuck in Senate
7) Tax cuts and reform moving through Congress
8) Submitted 2018 Budget that cuts spending and give a pathway to a balanced budget in 10 years.
9) Returned power to make decisions on transgender bathrooms to states
10) Instituted 5-year lobbying ban for all Executive branch appointees
11) Instituted permanent lobbying ban for foreign governments for all Executive branch appointees
12) Banned aid helping foreign countries provide abortions (Mexico City Policy)
13) Formed Commission on voter fraud led by VP Pence
14) Returned the mission of NASA to space exploration
15) Installing aspects of extreme vetting at points of entry to the USA
16) signed Two bills into Law on June 2nd that makes it easier for family members of slain LEO to get benefits and that helps hire Veterans as LEO
17) Sec of VA is starting process to combine the DOD and VA medical records to improve Veteran’s health. Massive shift in government policy.
18) Pushing a massive overhaul of our FAA Air Traffic control
19) House votes to roll back Dodd Frank goes to the Senate
20) Senate votes for VA accountability act. Goes to House passed house 06/13/17 major victory for Trump agenda signed into law on 06/23/17
21) Pushing an apprentice program to train skilled works to fill 6 million open positions.
22) The U.S. Treasury Department unveiled a sweeping plan on Monday to upend the country’s financial regulatory framework, 80% of which will be done from the executive side and does not need Congress. MAGA!!!!!
23) Signed EO to reshape the education system of the USA to include votech and apprenticeships
24) Did away with rules requiring the Federal government to report on the Y2K bug 17 years after 2000.
25) President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating an accountability and whistleblower protection office at the Department of Veterans Affairs.(04/ 27/2017)
26) Sec. Zinke moves to purge the Interior department of Obama holdovers (6/16/17 per Washington post)
27) Energy Department eliminating the Office of International Climate and Technology
28) 22 federal agency task force formed to help the rural America fight regulations and lack of prosperity led by Sec Perdue
29) Environmental Protection Agency has ended a nearly $1 million program that provided gym memberships for employees
30) 5-0 in special elections (GA6 primary, KS, MT, GA6 final election, SC)
31) Sec Kelly dropped many “Pro-Obama Islamic groups from funding” Groups that pushed for sharia law and closed Muslim communities within the USA. (06/23/17 per Breitbart)
32) TRAVEL BAN upheld by SCOTUS by 9-0 ruling. Extreme vetting will now become law of the land.
33) Scott Pruitt signed #WOTUS proposed rule, supporting @POTUS order to restore the rule of law.
34) Travel BAN now in full effect across the world. (06/29/17)
35) Signed agreement to construct oil pipeline into Mexico
36) Opening up LNG centers to ship LNG across the world (06/29/17)
37) Introduced 6 point plan to unleash American energy (off shore, Nuclear, coal, NG, Oil, renewable) (06/29/17)
38) President Trump Signs EO Reviving The National Space Council (06/30/17)
39) Pentagon halts Obama’s transgender plan (07/01/17 per Breitbart)
40) Sec DeVos has stopped two Obama regulations from going into effect which would have harmed for profit colleges. The Gainful Employment rule and the Borrower Defense rule (06/30/17)
41) On May 4th, 2017 Pres Trump signed the Religious Freedom EO ordering his admin among other things to not enforce the Johnson amendment.
42) Reduced White House expenses by $22 million by reducing staffing levels form Obama levels. Doing more with less
43). Donald Trump’s first-quarter salary donation will help fund the restoration of two projects at Antietam National Battlefield, Department of Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke announced Wednesday per Breitbart (07/05/117)
ON FOREIGN POLICY
1) Secured a 34,000 Arab force to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria
2) Sent 3 carrier battle groups to NK to pressure them on nuclear program, installed THADD in SK and Japan
3) Working with China on NK
4) Sent Navy to south China Sea to secure sea lines
5) Fired 60 Tomahawks after a gas attack
6) Got the G7 countries to agree that a nation has a right to control migration and immigration
7) Had G7 countries agree NK was a threat
8) Had G7 nations agree that Trade should be FAIR as well as FREE and that nations can punish non fair trade
9) Had NATO agree to pay more and got more countries to pay their fair share of defense pact
10) Have met with more than 100 of the world leaders many at the white house
11) Pulled out of Paris Accord and freed the USA from the economic Slavery Obama sold us into
12) Have surrounded ISIS in Iraq and Syria strongholds
13) Have killed the ISIS commander in Afghanistan and reduced their strength by 2/3rd in Afghanistan
14) Dropped the MOAB on ISIS killing more than 90 ISIS fighters
15) First sitting POTUS to pray at the Western Wall
16) Restarted peace process between Israel and PLO
17) Visited the land of the three major religions in the world
18) Opening of center to defeat radical Islam in cyberspace during Saudi Arabia visit. One orb to find them in the darkness and bind them.
19) Gave powerful speech in the heart of Islam about the need to reform Islam and drive out the radicals
20) Had G7 countries agree that refugees should stay as close as possible to home country and be returned when the threat is gone
21) Got the Arab nations to cut ties to Qatar for funding terrorists. Massive historic shift in diplomatic actions in the Muslim world.
22) Started the assault on Raqqa in Syria to defeat ISIS on June 6th 2017.
23) Got Romania to up it’s NATO funding to 2.1% of GDP
24) Has the Special Forces helping relieve siege in Philippines.
25) visiting Poland (07/05/16)
26) Per Sec. Tillerson. The PLO has stopped the payments to terrorists families. Major change in PLO policy.
27) Pres. Trump’s State department secured the release of American citizen Otto Warmbier from NK without paying $400 million ransom
28) Pres Trump admin secured the release of American citizen, Aya Hijazifor, from Egypt Jail without paying $400 million ransom.
29) Obama appointed Ambassador to Qatar “quit” during the biggest Crisis in Qatar’s history. What was she hiding?
30) Gave Sec. Mattis authority to set troop numbers in Afghanistan to turn the tide of the war. 06/16/17
31) Rolled back Obama’s Cuban policy. 06/16/17
32) Canada promised to increase defense spending by 70% (06/16/17)
33) Gulf Countries sent Qatar a list of demands to defund terrorism, reject the Muslim brother hood so Qatar can return to the fold, direct consequence of Pres Trump’s trip to the Middle East. Qatar has since rejected these demands setting a possible military conflict (updated 06/30/17)
34) NATO countries (excluding the US) increase defense spending by 4.3% from last year per daily mail and Breitbart(06/30/17).
35) Per Iraq military Mosul has fallen. ISIS no longer controls the city. Just a couple pockets of resistance left per independent (06/30/17)
36) Imposed Sanctions on major China Bank for it’s funding of North Korea and has declared the admin will work to cut North Korea off from access to the US financial market. (06/29/17)
37) approved a $1.42billion arms deal with Taiwan (07/02/17)
38) Reached out by Twitter to offer help to save baby Charlie Gard (07/03/17)
39) The US ambassador to the UN threatens China and other countries who trade with North Korea with blockage from the USA market. (07/05/17)
40) Pres Trump increases the threat to use of trade access to the US market to stop North Korea setting up a potential for a trade war with China (07/05/17)
A very familiar pattern is emerging as President Trump turns his attention toward solving the ongoing issues within Afghanistan. A very uniquely Trumpian geopolitical strategy based on assigned ownership, economics and self-interest.
Last night as President Trump addressed the nation to discuss the ongoing conflict within Afghanistan he took the first step: Trump assigned strategic ownership to Pakistan:
[…] “The next pillar of our new strategy is to change the approach in how to deal with Pakistan. We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond.
“Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our effort in Afghanistan. It has much to lose by continuing to harbor criminals and terrorists. In the past, Pakistan has been a valued partner. Our militaries have worked together against common enemies.
“The Pakistani people have suffered greatly from terrorism and extremism. We recognize those contributions and those sacrifices, but Pakistan has also sheltered the same organizations that try every single day to kill our people. We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars, at the same time they are housing the same terrorists that we are fighting. But that will have to change. And that will change immediately.
“No partnership can survive a country’s harboring of militants and terrorists who target U.S. service members and officials. It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilization, order, and to peace. (transcript link)
If anything President Trump stated was not the brutal reality the placement of strategic ownership would not work. However, the entire international community knows that Pakistan, including their intelligence service ISI, has a great deal of hidden sympathy toward Islamic extremists within Afghanistan.
Never was that reality more stark than when the international community realized that 9/11 terrorist Osama Bin Laden held refuge inside Pakistan for almost a decade. Within the governing systems inside Pakistan there is a large contingent of Taliban sympathy. This reality has been the 800lb gorilla amid public discussions of international national security for several years.
Last night President Trump called it out, publicly.
This is where those who follow Trump closely will note a familiar pattern emerging.
The Taliban in Afghanistan are to Pakistan, as the DPRK is to China.
Remember, the solution to the threat that is Kim Jong-un was to assign direct responsibility toward Beijing. In a similar approach, the solution toward eliminating the threat of extremist violence from the Taliban is to assign direct responsibility toward Pakistan. President Trump began that process last night.
However, those who have followed closely will note there’s additional references.
♦When the threat is Sunni Extremism, the problem was/is the Muslim Brotherhood and the enabling of Qatar. Trump assigned responsibility for solving that issue to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council. It is the GCC who are confronting Qatar, not the United States.
♦When the threat is Syria’s chemical weapon, the problem was/is the Assad regime and ISIS. Trump assigned responsibility for solving that issue to Russia; Russia initially refused to solve it, so Trump bombed the shit out of Assad – Russia/Assad took ownership, the chemical weapon use stopped; further action was not needed by the United States.
♦When the threat is DPRK’s nuclear weapons, the problem was/is Kim Jong-un and the enabling China. Trump assigned responsibility for solving that immediate threat to China. It was Beijing who told Kim Jong-un to stand down. Not the United States.
See the pattern? In each example President Trump assigns responsibility. However, the important element is the underlying ownership must be based entirely on truth. In each of the examples the truth was/is that Gulf States/Qatar, Assad/Russia, and China/Beijing were manipulating and enabling the problem behavior. By calling out that truth, each enabler was forced to take ownership and corrective action.
The same approach extends here with Afghanistan. However, the solution is not Pakistan eliminating the Taliban per se’; the solution lies in leveraging Pakistan to force the Taliban into negotiations with the legitimate Afghan government. Like the previous examples of Saudi Arabia and China, Trump has now assigned ownership of this objective to Pakistan.
The U.S. Military can/will engage the Taliban and Pakistan is on notice it better not act to enable the extremists. Cliff Notes:
Additionally, this approach only works if there’s leverage to cajole Pakistan to act. Fortunately creating “leverage” is almost a uniquely Trumpian life-skill. Throughout Trump’s business career he’s been a master at leverage. Now with control of the largest economy and market in the world, he’s got massive economic leverage to generate beneficial national security outcomes.
Saudi Arabia was leveraged by U.S. economics and our commitments to their national security. China was/is being leveraged by U.S. economics and their need to keep access to our markets. So what approach will POTUS Trump use for Pakistan, yep – economics. It’s right there:
[…] “We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars, at the same time they are housing the same terrorists that we are fighting.”…
Who is Pakistan’s biggest regional adversary? India.
[…] “Another critical part of the South Asia strategy or America is to further develop its strategic partnership with India, the world’s largest democracy and a key security and economic harbor of the United States.
“We appreciate India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development.” (transcript)
♦For the North Korean problem, Japan, South-Korea and India are all economically leveraged against China by President Trump via favorable trade and market access opportunities.
[Note that “bilateral” trade deals are essential in these efforts.]
♦For the Afghanistan problem, India again becomes the economic leverage against Pakistan. China has a great deal of investment in Pakistan, and China also views India as an economic threat to their one-road/one-belt plans.
For those who are worried about expansive military endeavors that will result in death and quagmire I would advise to put your mind at ease. The military is needed as the visible alternative to economic leverage, see North Korea. It is a reference; but military engagement unto itself is not the central tenet or fulcrum upon which the economic leverage is dependent.
The U.S. military is not the leverage, the military helps creates leverage. The leverage itself is economic. Financial interests are always the best leverage to use because inherent within the fundamental principles of economics is ‘self-interest’. Actions taken generate financial benefits; those benefits are direct and immediate to the interests of those generating the results.
From the policy and outlook of trade and U.S. economic engagement, obviously India’s Prime Minister Modi is a much more preferred ally. Both China and Pakistan fully understand the dynamics of this mutually beneficial Trump/Modi relationship and what it can mean for their own economic self-interests.
Finally Afghanistan’s government appears fully aware of the approach.
So what can we anticipate as next steps? Well if the familiar pattern repeats:
- Look for Pakistan to attempt to avoid ownership.
- Look for President Trump and Secretary Tillerson to keep pulling Pakistan into each discussion point when referencing Afghanistan.
- Look for President Trump tweets aimed at creating and affirming the U.S. expectations of Pakistan. Each time this happens the ownership gets stronger.
- Look for our diplomatic team to talk about Pakistan helping to solve the problem.
- Look for any affirming U.S. signals of warmth and friendship toward India.
These will all be indications of the ongoing strategy. So far, this economic geopolitical approach has worked well with Syria/Russia, Qatar/Saudi Arabia and DPRK/China. No reason not to be optimistic about Afghanistan (Taliban)/Pakistan.
“I am here tonight to lay out our path forward in Afghanistan and South Asia. But before I provide the details of our new strategy, I want to say a few words to the service members here with us tonight. To those watching from their posts, and to all Americans listening at home. Since the founding of our republic, our country has produced a special class of heroes whose selflessness, courage, and resolve is unmatched in human history.
“American patriots from every generation have given their last breath on the battlefield – for our nation and for our freedom. Through their lives, and though their lives – were cut short, in their deeds they achieved total immortality.
By following the heroic example of those who fought to preserve our republic, we can find the inspiration our country needs to unify, to heal and to remain one nation under God. The men and women of our military operate as one team, with one shared mission and one shared sense of purpose.
“They transcend every line of race, ethnicity, creed, and color to serve together and sacrifice together in absolutely perfect cohesion. That is because all service members are brothers and sisters. They are all part of the same family. It’s called the American family. They take the same oath, fight for the same flag, and live according to the same law.
“They are bound together by common purpose, mutual trust, and selfless devotion to our nation and to each other. The soldier understands what we as a nation too often forget, that a wound inflicted upon on a single member of our community is a wound inflicted upon us all. When one part of America hurts, we all hurt.
“And when one citizen suffers an injustice, we all suffer together. Loyalty to our nation demands loyalty to one another. Love for America requires love for all of its people. When we open our hearts to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice, no place for bigotry, and no tolerance for hate.
“The young men and women we sent to fight our wars abroad deserve to return to a country that is not at war with itself at home. We cannot remain a force for peace in the world if we are not at peace with each other.
“As we send our bravest to defeat our enemies overseas, and we will always win, let us find the courage to heal our divisions within. Let us make a simple promise to the men and women we ask to fight in our name, that when they return home from battle, they will find a country that has renewed the sacred bonds of love and loyalty that unite us together as one.
“Thanks to the vigilance and skill of the American military, and of our many allies throughout the world, horrors on the scale of September 11, and nobody can ever forget that, have not been repeated on our shores. But we must acknowledge the reality I am here to talk about tonight, that nearly 16 years after September 11 attacks, after the extraordinary sacrifice of blood and treasure, the American people are weary of war without victory.
“Nowhere is this more evident than with the war in Afghanistan, the longest war in American history – 17 years. I share the American people’s frustration. I also share their frustration over a foreign policy that has spent too much time, energy, money, and most importantly, lives trying to rebuild countries in our own image instead of pursuing our security interests above all other considerations. That is why shortly after my inauguration, I directed Secretary of Defense Mattis and my national security team to undertake a comprehensive review of all strategic options in Afghanistan and South Asia.
“My original instinct was to pull out, and historically I like following my instincts. But all my life, I have heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the oval office. In other words, when you are president of the United States.
“So I studied Afghanistan in great detail and from every conceivable angle. After many meetings over many months, we held our final meeting last Friday at Camp David with my cabinet and generals to complete our strategy. I arrived at three fundamental conclusion about America’s core interests in Afghanistan.
“First, our nation must seek an honorable and enduring outcome worthy of the tremendous sacrifices that have been made, especially the sacrifices of lives. The men and women who serve our nation in combat deserve a plan for victory. They deserve the tools they need and the trust they have earned to fight and to win.
“Second, the consequences of a rapid exit are both predictable and unacceptable. 9/11, the worst terrorist attack in our history, was planned and directed from Afghanistan because that country by a government that gave comfort and shelter to terrorists. A hasty withdrawal would create a vacuum that terrorists, including ISIS and al Qaeda, would instantly fill, just as happened before September 11. And as we know, in 2011, America hastily and mistakenly withdrew from Iraq.
“As a result, our hard-won gains slipped back into the hands of terrorists enemies. Our soldiers watched as cities they had fought for bled to liberate and won were occupied by a terrorist group called ISIS. The vacuum we created by leaving too soon gave safe haven for ISIS to spread, to grow, recruit and launch attacks. We cannot repeat in Afghanistan the mistake our leaders made in Iraq.
“Third and finally, I concluded that the security threats we face in Afghanistan and the broader region are immense. Today, 20 U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The highest concentration in any region anywhere in the world. For its part, Pakistan often gives safe haven to agents of chaos, violence, and terror. The threat is worse because Pakistan and India are two nuclear-armed states, whose tense relations threat to spiral into conflict, and that could happen.
“No one denies that we have inherited a challenging and troubling situation in Afghanistan and South Asia, but we do not have the luxury of going back in time and making different or better decisions.
“When I became president, I was given a bad and very complex hand, but I fully knew what I was getting into. Big and intricate problems. But one way or another, these problems will be solved. I am a problem solver. And in the end, we will win.
“We must address the reality of the world as it exists right now, the threats we face, and the confronting of all of the problems of today, an extremely predictable consequences of a hasty withdrawal. We need look no further than last week’s vile, vicious attack in Barcelona to understand that terror groups will stop at nothing to commit the mass murder of innocent men, women, and children.
“You saw it for yourself. Horrible. As I outlined in my speech in Saudi Arabia, three months ago, America and our partners are committed to stripping terrorists of their territory, cutting off their funding and exposing the false allure of their evil ideology. Terrorists who slaughter innocent people will find no glory in this life or the next. They are nothing but thugs and criminals and predators, and, that’s right, losers.
“Working alongside our allies, we will break their will, dry up their recruitment, keep them from crossing our borders, and yes, we will defeat them, and we will defeat them handily. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, America’s interests are clear.
“We must stop the resurgence of safe havens that enable terrorists to threaten America. And we must prevent nuclear weapons and materials from coming into the hands of terrorists and being used against us or anywhere in the world, for that matter. But to prosecute this war, we will learn from history.
“As a result of our comprehensive review, American strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia will change dramatically in the following ways: A core pillar of our new strategy is a shift from a time-based approach to one based on conditions. I’ve said it many times, how counterproductive it is for the United States to announce in advance the dates we intend to begin or end military operations.
“We will not talk about numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities. Conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables, will guide our strategy from now on. America’s enemies must never know our plans or believe they can wait us out. I will not say when we are going to attack, but attack we will.
“Another fundamental pillar of our new strategy is the integration of all instruments of American power, diplomatic, economic, and military, toward a successful outcome. Someday, after an effective military effort, perhaps it will be possible to have a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban and Afghanistan, but nobody knows if or when that will ever happen. America will continue its support for the Afghan government and the Afghan military as they confront the Taliban in the field.
“Ultimately, it is up to the people of Afghanistan to take ownership of their future, to govern their society, and to achieve an everlasting peace. We are a partner and a friend, but we will not dictate to the Afghan people how to live or how to govern their own complex society. We are not nation building again. We are killing terrorists.
“The next pillar of our new strategy is to change the approach in how to deal with Pakistan. We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond.
“Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our effort in Afghanistan. It has much to lose by continuing to harbor criminals and terrorists. In the past, Pakistan has been a valued partner. Our militaries have worked together against common enemies.
“The Pakistani people have suffered greatly from terrorism and extremism. We recognize those contributions and those sacrifices, but Pakistan has also sheltered the same organizations that try every single day to kill our people. We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars, at the same time they are housing the same terrorists that we are fighting. But that will have to change. And that will change immediately.
“No partnership can survive a country’s harboring of militants and terrorists who target U.S. service members and officials. It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilization, order, and to peace.
“Another critical part of the South Asia strategy or America is to further develop its strategic partnership with India, the world’s largest democracy and a key security and economic harbor of the United States.
“We appreciate India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development. We are committed to pursuing our shared objectives for peace and security in South Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
“Finally, my administration will ensure that you, the brave defenders of the American people, will have the necessary tools and rules of engagement to make this strategy work and work effectively and work quickly.
“I have already lifted restrictions the previous administration placed on our war fighters that prevented the secretary of defense and our commanders in the field from fully and swiftly waging battle against the enemy. Micromanagement from Washington, D.C., does not win battles. They are won in the field drawing upon the judgment and expertise of wartime commanders and front-line soldiers, acting in real time with real authority and with a clear mission to defeat the enemy.
That is why we will also expand authority for American armed forces to target the terrorists and criminal networks that sow violence and chaos throughout Afghanistan.”
These killers need to know they have nowhere to hide, that no place is beyond the reach of American might and American arms. Retribution will be fast and powerful.
As we lift restrictions and expand authorities in the field, we are already seeing dramatic results in the campaign to defeat ISIS, including the liberation of Mosul in Iraq. Since my inauguration, we have achieved record-breaking success in that regard.
We will also maximize sanctions and other financial and law enforcement actions against these networks to eliminate their ability to export terror. When America commits its warriors to battle, we must ensure they have every weapon to apply swift, decisive and overwhelming force.
Our troops will fight to win. We will fight to win. From now on, victory will have a clear definition — attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan and stopping mass terror attacks against America before they emerge. We will ask our NATO allies and global partners to support our new strategy, with additional troop and funding increases in line with our own. We are confident they will.
Since taking office, I have made clear that our allies and partners must contribute much more money to our collective defense, and they have done so.
In this struggle, the heaviest burden will continue to be borne by the good people of Afghanistan and their courageous armed forces.
As the prime minister of Afghanistan has promised, we are going to participate in economic development to help defray the cost of this war to us. Afghanistan is fighting to defend and secure their country against the same enemies who threaten us. The stronger the Afghan security forces become, the less we will have to do.
Afghans will secure and build their own nation and define their own future. We want them to succeed. But we will no longer use American military might to construct democracies in faraway lands or try to rebuild other countries in our own image. Those days are now over. Instead, we will work with allies and partners to protect our shared interests.
We are not asking others to change their way of life but to pursue common goals that allow our children to live better and safer lives. This principled realism will guide our decisions moving forward. Military power alone will not bring peace to Afghanistan or stop the terrorist threat arising in that country.
But strategically-applied force aims to create the conditions for a political process to achieve a lasting peace. America will work with the Afghan government as long as we see determination and progress.
However, our commitment is not unlimited, and our support is not a blank check. The government of Afghanistan must carry their share of the military, political and economic burden. The American people expect to see real reforms, real progress and real results.
Our patience is not unlimited. We will keep our eyes wide open. In abiding by the oath I took on January 20, I will remain steadfast in protecting American lives and American interests. In this effort, we will make common cause with any nation that chooses to stand and fight alongside us against this global threat.
Terrorists, take heed. America will never let up until you are dealt a lasting defeat. Under my administration, many billions of dollars more is being spent on our military. And this includes vast amounts being spent on our nuclear arsenal and missile defense. In every generation, we have faced down evil, and we have always prevailed.
We prevailed because we know who we are and what we are fighting for. Not far from where we are gathered tonight, hundreds of thousands of America’s greatest patriots lay in eternal rest at Arlington national cemetery. There is more courage, sacrifice and love in those hallowed grounds than in any other spot on the face of the Earth.
Many of those who have fought and died in Afghanistan enlisted in the months after September 11, 2001. They volunteered for a simple reason: they loved America and they were determined to protect her. Now we must secure the cause for which they gave their lives. We must unite to defend America from its enemies abroad. We must restore the bonds of loyalty among our citizens at home, and we must achieve an honorable and enduring outcome worthy of the enormous price that so many have paid.
Our actions and in months to come, all of them will honor the sacrifice of every fallen hero, every family who lost a loved one and every wounded warrior who shed their blood in defense of our great nation.
With our resolve, we will ensure that your service and that your family’s will bring about the defeat of our enemies and the arrival of peace. We will push onward to victory with power in our hearts, courage in our souls and everlasting pride in each and every one of you.
May God bless our military, and may God bless the United States of America.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Jon McNaughton has just completed his latest artwork and it represents an incredible vision of the middle-class American family carefully nurturing a sprouting seedling.
(click to enlarge)
Video below from Mr. McNaughton describing his perspective on the painting:
An interesting article in the Washington Times poses a possibility of President Trump holding a deconfliction summit with North Korea –SEE HERE– And that begs a question of whether or not it’s actually plausible. I would state unequivocally yes, and here’s why.
If you have followed the foreign policy pattern of President Trump you immediately recognize he does not restrain himself to DC political customs or DC political norms. Indeed as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi optimistically noted, President Trump can accomplish many things because he brings a unique perspective to the world of policy and diplomatic engagement. Later repeating: “He Can Do The Impossible“.
Additionally since we originally outlined the likely scenario for a restart of the ‘six party talks‘ (China, South Korea, Russia, Japan and the U.S.), on August 13th, there has been some visible activity providing further evidence toward that end.
•Japan (Shinzo Abe) has stated they have “great confidence” in President Trump’s Asian national security approach. •South Korea (President Moon Jae-in) has stated they are “confident there will not be war again on the Korean peninsular“; •and they are willing to send a special envoy to North Korea to begin talks. •In addition, China has quietly removed the 71-year-old veteran diplomat, Wu Dawei, from the position of negotiator toward the DPRK, and replaced him with 58-year-old Kong Xuanyou. Kong is a long time Chinese diplomat in charge of Asian affairs and he speaks Korean.
All of this generally under-reported diplomatic activity has taken place within the past week while the American media was busy pushing Charlottesville narratives. But more importantly this activity took place while President Trump directed USTR Lighthizer to begin a section 301 trade investigation into China. POTUS Trump is ramping up the pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping, but more specifically this action targets Beijing’s communist old guard who control both their economy and the DPRK behavior.
Additionally, into this uniquely Asian geopolitical dynamic we have India, and Prime Minister Modi, apparently finding some new energy to push back against their neighboring nemesis China. Literal “pushing back“, heck they got into a fist fight.
Now, between Trump’s China trade action, and Modi’s regional geographic action, there appears to be a traditional squeeze play working out. It would be intellectually dishonest not to recognize the appearance of some coordination, especially given the plans for Ivanka Trump to travel to India next month. [*nudge, nudge* *wink, wink* say-no-more]
Here’s where it gets interesting.
When you understand that Beijing is really the support structure for Kim Jong-Un, in that China uses the DPRK to keep the Western (mostly U.S.) economic threats out of Asia, you realize it’s against Beijing’s interest for President Trump and Kim Jong-un to deconflict.
If diplomacy prevails in the Korean Peninsular, the historic economic arrow is gone from China’s quiver. Indeed, many would argue there’s no greater threat to China’s overall ‘One-Road/One-Belt’ economic program. With peace comes viable economic relationships. The ability of China to use the DPRK as a sweatshop for their economy would potentially and realistically collapse.
So Beijing would want to impede diplomatic efforts. It’s in their sneaky-self best interests; it’s also just how they roll. However, even though China controls much of the Washington DC swamp via purchased lobby activity, they can’t control Trump; and they certainly can’t control Trump’s diplomatic approach toward engaging a foreign government.
Therefore China’s default position would be for China to ‘control‘ any meeting between the U.S., South Korea, and/or Japan, with Kim Jong-un. When you recognize this, you recognize what that provides – MORE TRUMP LEVERAGE.
See how that works?
POTUS Trump knows it would be against Beijing’s interests for Kim Jong-un to meet a reasonable and non-political deal maker like President Trump. That knowledge only fuels the probability of such a meeting taking place.
In an effort to control such a possibility, China will have to move fast to cut off any back channel discussion between Godzilla Trump, T-Rex and Dennis Rodman’s BFF Kim Jong-un. Hence, we discover the motive for Beijing working to quickly get Kong Xuanyou, the new emissary, into place. China is simply trying a better play for control by putting ‘six party talks’ back on the table.
Don’t be surprised to hear of those “six party talks” within days or weeks. And don’t be surprised to hear of the potential for direct talks and direct engagement with North Korea either by South Korea or Japan, or by…. wait for it, yup Godzilla Trump via T-Rex.
President Trump isn’t constrained to DC political customs and diplomatic outlooks of non-engagement with North Korea. Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make a move within the next 30 days toward those ends.
After all, almost every bit of recent activity in Asia dovetails nicely with the position as it appeared only a little more than a week ago: August 13th:
However, President Trump cannot be completely open with the strategy because part of the long-term plan is to allow China to save face by giving up North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
It would be against Trump’s interests if the entire global and geopolitical community understood what was happening.
So the question becomes, how will we know when President Trump has won in the economic and national security challenge? Well, first let’s look at the geopolitical landscape and the known and identified calendar to view the goal timeline:
♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.
♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year. Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.
So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.
Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Narendra Modi hugs.
President Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship. China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Ballywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.
Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.
Again, President Trump holds all the economic cards. Just look at what he did to neuter Russia’s economy when everyone was paying attention to the bouncing laser dot on the wall. The American and Western media missed it, but President Trump moved the entire geopolitical world via a strategic energy platform.
Sip this next paragraph slowly to enjoy the strategery:
From OPEC (Saudi Summit) to the EU and Baltic States (Poland Pre-G20); to North African energy development via President Macron (Libya and Mali); to walking away from the Paris Climate agreement; to discussions with Theresa May on a bilateral trade deal; to massive shipments of coal to U.K. and France; to closing a deal to deliver Ireland massive amounts of Texas LNG; to our own internal U.S. energy production policy with pipelines, Oil, Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) etc.
President Trump used all of those “allied” relationships to lower global energy prices.
The bigger part of the ‘big-missed-picture‘ was how that energy strategy impacted adversaries like Russia, Iran etc. and simultaneously supported the larger America-First economic and geopolitical space.
President Trump thinks seriously long-term, and really BIG picture.
President Trump thinks so far out in front of his detractors they genuinely cannot fathom the sequential logic behind the day-to-day granular activity.
Yes, in large part this is what makes President Trump so enjoyable to watch politically. Just like the American media, our international adversaries and competitors have no reference point for a U.S. President that is entirely independent from influence.
So we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly desperate China.
China will structure the DPRK talking points to set up the meetings. This is a part of how China is allowed to save face and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.
The six party talks will be essentially a Marshal Plan of sorts for North Korea. Japan, South Korea, The United States, China, Russia and North Korea will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy and reducing tension.
President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.
Meanwhile, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to the representatives who all line up with their requests.
President Trump’s golf partner Shinzo Abe will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along. The only real negotiations will be between the U.S. Russia and China. Russia will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again, and China negotiating to retain as much of the $500 billion trade surplus as possible.
The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; the U.N. enters under carefully negotiated terms, and Big Panda promises to the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein. Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.
That’s essentially the way the bright economic and national security future looks today.
Then again, it might get brighter – gilded even.
After all, this is President Donald Trump we’re talking about.
Armstrong Economics Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Re-Posted Aug 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
Comment added by Centinel2012: There are two sides to the Bannon story I agree with Martin on the economic side but I do not agree on the political side. However, both sides need to be be shown so this is the economics side.
Steve Bannon has been fired from the Trump team, and many are saying good reddens. It was Bannon who has been the one with the most confrontational approach and has really been clashing behind the curtail. Bannon said in the interview that the main front was China: “We are in a trade war with China” and if the US were not to win this war, they would fall back as a world power permanently into insignificance. Bannon’s statement is really absurd for he has clearly no real understanding of the world economy. His focus of China and trade is the same stupid reason James Baker created the G5 back in 1985. We are plagued by people who pontificate on the world economy with zero experience.
Bannon is an American media executive, formerly a film producer, who served in the Navy for 7 years and then worked at Goldman Sachs as an investment banker mergers and acquisition but never rose very high. In the 1990s, he became an executive producer in the Hollywood film and media industry; he produced 18 films between 1991 and 2016. He may understand media, but I believe he is clueless with regard to how the world economy functions.
Bannon is being very vindictive. He has come out and said: “The Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over.” He added: “We still have a huge movement, and we will make something of this Trump presidency. But that presidency is over. It’ll be something else. And there’ll be all kinds of fights, and there’ll be good days and bad days, but that presidency is over.”
It’s all connected. The “Big Ugly” is underway. Intellectually honest people know the CEO boards and advisory council members were on the White House team to shape and protect their collective stakes in the upcoming America First economic trade reset. Nothing more.
The intents of the prior participants were to protect their interests, period. There was no ideological American altruism within any of the motives. Globalists, multinationals and the participating leaders, who make their livelihoods on globalist economic expansion, were simply protecting their interests. Fortunately for the livelihood of the American middle-class they ran into economic granite, the Monolith that is Donald Trump. Faced with the futility of their self-interested endeavor, they exit under false pretense. C-Ya.
With NAFTA ongoing, and freed from the original concern about undermining America-First MAGAnomics by domestic industrial leadership, which was the entire premise of assembling them in the first place; in conjunction with Big Panda telling their bag-man in the DPRK to stand down, President Trump now positioned to fire-at-will:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States on Friday formally launched an investigation into China’s alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property, a widely expected move following a call from President Donald Trump earlier this week to determine whether a probe was needed.
The probe is the administration’s first direct measure against Chinese trade practices, which the White House and U.S. business groups say are bruising American industry.
“After consulting with stakeholders and other government agencies, I have determined that these critical issues merit a thorough investigation,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the nation’s top trade negotiator, said in a statement.
Trump repeatedly railed against Chinese trade practices on the campaign trail, but as president he had not taken significant action until this week.
China had rebuffed attempts by previous American presidents to take action against its IP practices. Administration officials have said that China’s theft of U.S. intellectual property could amount to as much as $600 million.
The probe will likely further complicate the U.S. relationship with China, the country’s largest trading partner. The Trump administration has been pressing Beijing to take steps to encourage North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile programs. (read more)
Remember, this is Trump. Looking out for U.S. economic interests is the baseline for trade “leverage”, a tactic and skill uniquely evident in this administration’s trade team. Section 301 is a tool, actually a massive atomic sledgehammer, to force compliance.
Historically S-301 trade investigations are considered so scary to the receiving country that almost every nation just complies with USTR requests and the investigations became moot. The sanctions which follow the 301 investigations are rarely needed.
When trade negotiations are carried out on behalf of lobbyist interests, there’s not much need for strategy and leverage. This is the historic reference for the U.S. in the past 30 years.
In the modern era, almost all U.S. trade agreements have been constructed for political benefit and special interest lobbyists, not necessarily tied to the U.S. economy.
The results of these decades-long special interest approaches are visibly evident across most of the U.S. rust belt states. Additional reference points can be found in the historic North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA – Mexico/Canada), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP – Asia), and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP – Europe).
Much to the angst of the lobbying team within the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, President Trump has dispatched both the TPP and TTIP schemes in favor of bilateral trade deals with individual nations; and NAFTA renegotiation has started.
Last week President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a previously scheduled phone call. No doubt the keenly instinctual negotiator President Trump would give the respect of advance notice to Xi Jinping if 301 investigations are going to be announced.
Again, what is often forgotten is that modern China has never seen the U.S. launch a 301 trade investigation against it, or anyone else. China’s rise to economic power has been within two prior decades where prior U.S. administrations’ were selling out the American economy using the World Trade Organization (WTO), created in 1995.
This is why launching a series of 301 Trade Investigations is such a big deal. The conclusions are drawn from facts, there’s no way to skewer the data or hide the tariff that China applies to U.S. goods. If China applies a 35% import tariff on something, Section 301 allows the U.S. to apply the same tariff to the import of that something from China.
When you grasp how much this 301 equalizer can impact trade opponents, and recognize how one-sided our trade deals are with China, you begin to grasp how devastating it will be for China if 301’s are utilized. This is atomic sledgehammer type unidirectional leverage. China has nothing they can do, other than the silly threats they have already made.
Now you know why China was/is using North Korea as their only bargaining chip.
Even the announcement of deploying the S-301 investigations is enough to move markets once the young traders teach themselves what the end ramifications are.
For those who think President Trump will blink on these core economic issues, or doubt the severity of his commitment to follow through on them, you only need to look upon the amount of grief he is willing to endure from opposition to stay focused on it.
If the economic council needs to disband, ok – go. If the CEO board needs to be removed, ok- so be it. Anything or anyone who anticipates being able to modify President Trump’s 30-year-long position and commitment to these economic issues at the heart of the core erosion of U.S. interests, finds themselves in the position of a gnat looking into a thermonuclear furnace. Don’t be surprised to see Gary Cohn removed if he’s not part of the solution.
POTUS Trump ain’t flinching on the economic stuff.
Transgenders, bathroom policing, identity politics et al – POTUS Trump could care less what anyone agrees -or disagrees- to do in political consensus. Send him whatever the damned thing is and he’ll sign it…. moving on. POTUS Trump isn’t that kind of Republican; and it drives some people nuts.
POTUS Trump is looking at a much, much bigger picture than who is wearing high-heels, labels and definitions of today’s biggest PC offender.
Economics is survival.
Economics is the big stuff.
Remember these words:
…”Either we have a country or we don’t.”…
MAGA is essentially President Trump defining 2009 Tea-Party Economic outlooks in modern day 2017.
The constitution doesn’t mean much without a country within which to apply it.
Trump is seemingly one guy, yet he has them surrounded.
And he’s fighting for Big Stuff.
POTUS Trump is the Monolith, and those who oppose him be like: