Stock Market Fluctuations Highlight Bets on 2018 Midterm Election Results…


This is not financial advice. CTH simply explains economic influences and how they show up visibly in various KPI’s.  This is not financial advice.

The current Wall Street stock market sell-off is (in majority) mostly an outcome of investors betting Republicans are going to lose the House of Representatives and the MAGA economic policy will be blocked by a Democrat controlled House.

The U.S. Stock Market is factoring in a House of Representatives election loss for the Trump economic agenda.  Predictably, Democrats will target the administration with legislative challenges, investigations and court cases focused on regulations and tax policy.

Democrats have announced their intent to target President Trump cabinet members for investigations; the administration will be bound up in committee oversight; Trump’s family business interests and taxes will be part of a renewed investigation; and all of the MAGAnomic policy will immediately stop amid the reistance.  That’s the reality.

From the perspective of 5-year-view investors: If you think the 2018 mid-term election will result in a Democrat controlled house of representatives; with Adam Schiff as Speaker; then getting out of the market is not an unreasonable position.

However, for those who estimate the 2018 mid-term election will result in Republicans retaining control of the house of representatives; with either Kevin McCarthy or Jim Jordan as speaker; then now through election day is the time to buy-in to the market.

If the GOP keep the house, all current year stock sell-offs (drops) will be made up on November 7th, 2018 (likely within 48 hours) as they were in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election.

Obviously there are other factors…. Obviously, this big picture aspect is simplistic; but the 2018 midterm election result is the largest current dynamic influencing market fluctuations.  There are billions at stake.

Those who think Democrats will win are selling (Wall Street). Those who think the GOP will win, and retain the house, are buying/holding (Main Street).

It is a weird, yet simple, year.

Suspicious Packages With Appearance of Pipe Bombs Sent To Various Left-Wing Political Figures…


Packages containing the appearance of Acme pipe bombs have grabbed the attention of the nation and the media. The packages were sent via U.S. mail to various left-wing political figures. None of the devices detonated or activated upon delivery. U.S. law enforcement suspect all of the packages were sent by the same group or individual.

Secret Service revealed they intercepted two of the packages en route to former President Obama’s Washington D.C. home and Hillary Clinton’s property in Chappaqua, New York. A few hours later a police bomb squad was sent to CNN’s offices in New York City as one of the packages was addressed to former CIA director John Brennan.

Additionally, the mailed devices were also reported addressed to former Attorney General Eric Holder, Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and California congresswoman Maxine Waters. The three packages addressed to Obama, the Clintons and CNN were similar to package found at liberal billionaire donor George Soros’ New York home on Monday.

The media are quick to frame a narrative of blame toward President Trump, and within minutes of breaking the news attached the hashtag #Magabomber to the motive. The White House condemned the attacks as ‘despicable’ and administration officials described the events as a coordinated ‘effort to terrorize’ just days before polarizing US elections.

Due to the nature of the overall package content, the likelihood of a staged political effort is high. The motive is undetermined; however, there is a strong history of left-wing manufactured ‘fake-hate’ to advance political objectives.

CNN broadcast pictures of the package sent to their New York office.

President Donald Trump delivered remarks about the suspicious packages during a pre-scheduled White House event on Opioid abuse:

Forget the Doom & Gloom – It’s Not That Bad


Re-Posted from Armstrong Economics Oct 25, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Martin,

I know things are dark, but you are becoming down right gloomy. If the world is falling apart in Austrialia, Europe, Japan and ultimately the USA, there must be somewhere, or somewheres, the computer says things will be great in, or get better in. Where to go now? China right now, no thank you. Maybe with a Polar shift and a physical revolution of the poles and new economic policy, then maybe. But not as it is. You could lose your everything as it is. So where? Singapore? Africa? India? Or do we just dig a hole and hide? I’ll take a cave in the Alps, or the Rookies with Solar Panels and hydroponic gardens.

I am (just) slightly older than you are and I still am ready for another 60+ years. What do we all do, us and the younger folks between now and 2080? Let’s kick it up and get going.

Joe

ANSWER: We do not necessarily have to run and hide in a cave. I will let you know if it really is that bad. What we are looking at is the collapse of governmental systems. That does mean you have to run and hide someplace. Yes, that is possible in certain areas. But politically, things change and we get to restructure.

As far as pole shifts, the climate changes yes. Where to run and hide? Who knows. The pole can just be a temporary excursion rather than a 180-degree flip. The only point of this is to ensure you have some food stored for there can be shortages with cold weather. Perhaps you will not even need it. Better safe than sorry. Nobody really knows what happens in a pole shift. One of the girls in the office fled last year because of the monster hurricane CNN said would kill everyone with a 16-foot wall of water, which maybe reach 1 foot at my house. She fled to Orlando and the joke in the office was it was following her. So it is not always wise to flee – you might be running smack into the event. Let’s just be patient and see. Places that are normally cold are warm and vice versa. This is strange so far but perhaps a leading indicator.

The worse thing would be flying at that moment in time. Airplanes are guided by where magnetic north and the North Pole has been moving more rapidly since 2010 than at any time in recent history. This has even forced changes in calibrating airports because planes would miss them and land in the water if not adjusted to where the North Pole is presently.

So, no need to run and hide. We are looking at an economic implosion. Yes, that will result in civil unrest and that will most likely be focused in the big cities. So the risk would be greater for someone living in LA or NYC rather than in the suburbs. But we are not looking at a Mad Max type event at this time. If that would occur, we are looking off into 2032-2037 period.

Besides, just perhaps if we have enough people who really UNDERSTAND the problem, then when it comes to rebuilding, we can all yell and be heard at that point – just not before the Crash & Burn. Nobody will listen and hand over any power until there is no other choice.

Categories: Economics, Understanding Cycles

Crisis in Democracy – We Have Crossed the Line


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; You are striking a cord out there. A lot more people are paying attention. Someone put this out on YouTube.

PJ

REPLY: The best thing is for people to understand the trend in motion. There is nothing we can do to PREVENT this crisis. The only thing we can do is prepare for it to survive for ourselves and our family. Even a family member may disagree with you right now. That will change. People as a whole are passive-aggressive. That means they are indeed like sheep and those in power know that. They keep pushing until we reach the breaking point. At that moment, your family members who thought you were wearing tinfoil hats at night will suddenly see the light. Unfortunately, this is simply why this erupt politically at the end. We take it and take it until we cannot any longer. Politicians are befuddled because they have been robbing the treasury for so long they cannot grasp that now you are suddenly angry at that practice. To them, you never complained before

Rosenstein Backs Out of Classified Questioning – Goodlatte and Gowdy Cancel Hearing…


Oh how the Rosenstein worm turns. In late breaking developments tonight, on the eve of Rosenstein’s agreement to testify in a closed-door, heavily controlled, classified setting… Everything gets cancelled:

“The Committees are unable to ask all questions of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein within the time allotted for tomorrow’s transcribed interview, therefore, the interview will be postponed. Mr. Rosenstein has indicated his willingness to testify before the Judiciary and Oversight Committees in the coming weeks in either a transcribed interview or a public setting. We appreciate his willingness to appear and will announce further details once it has been rescheduled.” (link)

Suspicious cat’s suspicions of Rosenstein seemingly validated. Here’s what an objective review of events seems to show.

There are voices sympathetic to a premise, a theory of sorts, that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed Robert Mueller in an effort to remove the corrupt influence of Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe in 2017.   According to the theory – Rosenstein’s modus operandi was to facilitate a genuine review of the Russian collusion/conspiracy questions through the appointment of Mueller.

However, in order for that theory to be correct – once Rosenstein discovered the fraudulent basis for the origination of the Mueller probe; meaning once he realized there was an actual FBI and DOJ scheme to construct a soft-coup; he would necessarily have needed to stop defending the false premise which built the foundation for the inquiry.

He didn’t.

He advanced it.

He defends it, even today.

Despite mountains of evidence showcasing the politicized and weaponized use of the FBI and DOJ to attack the office of the President, evidence that came out after the Mueller probe was launched, Rosenstein took no action to highlight the fraud and fold-up the inquiry.

Not only did Rosenstein take no action to confront the fraud; he has gone to extreme lengths to continue validating the Mueller probe a full year after clear evidence surfaced.  Even as late as last Friday, Rosenstein filed a ridiculous indictment against an innocuous Russian person claiming she used Facebook and Twitter in a “conspiracy to defraud the United States.”

An honest review of conduct outlines that all of Rosenstein’s actions are self-serving.  He is attempting to protect his own interests, and if that means protecting a false Mueller investigation – then so be it.  That is exactly what he has been doing.

That behavior, highlighted by several instances – including his request to President Trump to continue hiding the information behind the declassification of documents requested by congress, highlights that DAG Rod Rosenstein is attempting damage control regardless of downstream consequences.

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein controlled the James Wolfe indictment (and eventual plea).  DAG Rosenstein controlled the Natalie Mayflower Sours-Edwards Treasury leak indictment.  DAG Rosenstein wrote the recent Op-Ed defending the Mueller investigation.  DAG Rosenstein, together with Mueller, framed the indictment against the Concord group.  DAG Rosenstein controls the indictment against Ms. Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova.  These are all Rosenstein constructs.  These are all Rosenstein behaviors.

These are not the behaviors of a man who is trying to rid the DOJ of internal corruption.

These are the behaviors of a man intent on protecting the swamp, and by extension his own participation in corrupt swamp activity.

Yes, Suspicious Cat remains suspicious; and rightly so.

President Trump and President Trump’s supporters have two slightly different sets of priorities when it comes to the DOJ and FBI. From President Trump’s perspective the thorn in his administration has been Special Counsel Robert Mueller.  The declassification agreement between Rosenstein and Trump negates any concern about Mueller.

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein created the special counsel under fraudulent pretense.  That origination material (Ohr 302’s, FISA pages, origination EC, and Page/Strzok messages) is now a risk to the Deputy AG.

DAG Rosenstein does not want his involvement in the fraud to be exposed; hence his request to block/stall/delay the declassification directive. However, at any time President Trump can declassify all the documents and outline the fraudulent basis that originated the special counsel. This is essentially President Trump’s leverage.

The Robert Mueller investigation is the priority for removal for President Trump in order to continue the MAGA agenda.  For well over a year Mueller has been the cloud over the administration and has been the primary focus of most media antagonism therein.

For the Office of the President, the Mueller probe is the immediate thorn.  Ergo leverage over the DAG toward the removal of that thorn is a priority.  Exposing the previous and current DOJ and FBI corruption is of less importance to President Trump.

However, from the perspective of President Trump supporters, especially those who have done deep research into the former and ongoing abuse, the aggregate DOJ and FBI corruption is the priority; and exposing the soft-coup is the ultimate goal.

See the difference?  (continue reading)

“Elements”…


Tribal divisions, based on political ideology, exist within all government institutions – including the intelligence community.  To dismiss this truism is to be intellectually dishonest.  Our recent American history has provided us a clear reference in the example of President Obama weaponizing the DOJ, FBI and CIA  to target his political opposition, Donald Trump.

Former NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers discusses the Khashoggi murder and the role of Saudi Arabia.  Notice the use of the word “elements”…

One theory is that Jamal Khashoggi held a strong alignment with Brennan-minded U.S. intelligence officials, hence his working relationship with the Washington Post. Under this premise Khashoggi would be negotiating with officials inside Saudi for a meeting in Turkey specifically because the Pro-Iran sketchy Brennan types have close relationships with corrupt Turkish intelligence officials and could monitor closely.

After setting up the meeting at the Saudi consulate in Turkey and coordinating therein; U.S. and Turkish intelligence were closely monitoring the visit anticipating the outcome.

Brennan-aligned Saudi ideologues like ostracized Prince Alweed Talal; who use massive amounts of money to corrupt U.S. politicians and intelligence officials; coordinated an opportunity to strike back at Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MbS) through the death of Khashoggi.

This theory would explain the outcome and massive attention therein.

Forecasting Whatever Trend is in Motion Will Remain in Motion is Standard


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I believe I understand your criticism about analysis. Whatever trend is in motion people assume will remain in motion. This is dangerous is managing a company, economy, and climate. I read the New York Time from 1961 when they said the climate was getting colder. Perhaps we need to teach a course on how to analyze for the one thing that is certain, tomorrow is not identical to today.

PG

REPLY: You are correct. This type of forecasting is subject to human emotion. The only possible way to overcome this is to teach cyclical analysis for everything goes through a cycle. It is also why I have spent my time in creating a computer to analyze the future objectively. We should probably replace courts with an AI computer. Then, and only then. can we end political prosecutions.  Edward Snowden remains under the protection of Putin for revealing to the public that the government was violating the constitution. The politicians call it treason to expose what they are going which is illegal.

Forecasting that the world was getting colder was not profitable for the academics. However, by blaming humans for it getting warmer was a winner! No government can tax people for the privilege of making the climate actually change regardless if it was true of not.

President Trump Impromptu Presser Departing White House for Texas…


President Trump is departing the White House for a MEGA MAGA rally in Houston Texas as he pauses to answer questions from reporters on current events and a variety of issues.

President Trump notes the looming central American ‘migrant caravan’ is significantly more than the 5,000 to 7,000 people. As the backlash grows the scale of the mob is now being downplayed by the media.  Additional comments on Saudi Arabia (Khashoggi); the withdrawal from the nuclear forces agreement; the evolution to “Beautiful Texas Ted”; Germany purchasing LNG; horrible Nellie Ohr and possible middle-class tax cuts.

.

A very smart decision by the communications team to remove WH Press Briefings and let President Trump lead the media narrative directly to the midterms.  The best MAGA messenger is the indefatigable President who defines the MAGA message and movement.  The media are positively flummoxed at their inability to take Trump off message…

This is one of the best!

California Judge Hits Creepy Porn Lawyer with $4.85 Million Judgement…


Creepy Porn Lawyer and potential 2020 Democrat presidential candidate, Michael Avenatti, was hit with a $4.85 million judgement today awarding the settlement to an attorney for his former law firm.

Last week CPL said it was unlikely he would lose, stating: “nothing’s gonna happen on Monday” and the claims against him were “bogus”; whoopsie.

Today’s judgement is in addition to a previous award of $10 million to the same lawyer, Jason Frank.

Today’s loss comes on the heels of a financial defeat last week when Creepy and his client Stormy had their case against President Trump dismissed and that judge ordered CPL to pay all of Donald Trump’s defense costs. Another bad week for the Creepy Porn Lawyer.

LOS ANGELES — A California judge on Monday ordered Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti to pay $4.85 million to an attorney at his former law firm, the first time the potential presidential candidate is being held personally liable in the case.

Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Dennis Landin issued the ruling after turning down a request from Avenatti to have the matter moved to federal court, which the opposing side called a delay tactic.

Avenatti did not appear at the court hearing and never filed opposing arguments in the case.

The judge said Avenatti must pay the money because he personally guaranteed a settlement with Jason Frank, who had worked at his former firm.

Frank had alleged the firm misstated its profits and that he was owed millions.  (read more)

Is Goldman Sachs Banning Staff From Donating to Republicans Again?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; the Democrats are raising far more money from the various big Super-Pacs to take back the Congress. The talk is the New York bankers are telling staff not to donate to Republicans. Do you know if this is true?

SH

ANSWER: The 2016 Presidential Election was a monumental game changer. Trump did not win the money race, he only won the Presidency because the Democrats & Elitest Republicans were not prepared to overcome the turnout of the Silent Majority.  Trump defied conventional wisdom where the victory goes to the candidate who raised the most money. Clinton and her Super-PACs raised a total of $1.2 billion, less than President Barack Obama raised in 2012, but it was still twice the amount Donald Trump raised.

Hillary’s sophisticated fundraising operation included a small army of wealthy donors who wrote seven-figure checks, hundreds of bundlers who raised $100,000 or more from their own networks, and a small-dollar donor operation modeled on the one used by Obama in 2012. Hillary spent heavily on television advertising and her get-out-the-vote operation, but in the end, her fundraising edge wasn’t enough to overcome Trump’s ability to get out the vote BECAUSE he was an outsider.

Trump donated $66 million of his own money, flew across the country in his private jet, and used his resorts to stage campaign events. At the same time, the billionaire was able to draw about $280 million from small donors giving $200 or less. He did raise more from the small people than Hillary. The Super-PACs, which can take contributions unlimited in size, were similarly skewed toward Hillary Clinton. All the New York Bankers donated to Hillary – NOT Trump! No corruption was more prevalent than that of Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. had banned ALL partners from making donations to certain political campaigns, including the Donald Trump-Mike Pence presidential ticket. The audacity of Goldman Sachs to outright prohibit its staff from donating to Trump in the 2016 elections demonstrated how corrupt the entire election process has become. Any people wonder why the Democrats, who profess to hate the “rich” and special interests, and the NUMBER ONE party to whom the most corrupt people in the system donate. Not a single newspaper ever asks – Why?

I have not investigated if they are doing the same thing again for this season. It would not surprise me. Any firm which instructs their employees how to donate and restricts them from donating to their candidate of choice is violating every principle of the democratic process. God help us if they succeed.