Apparently the rumors of our economic demise were greatly exaggerated.  Yes, amid the gnashing teeth of the Wall Street pundits hoping for another lucrative Fed rate decrease, the Main Street economy continues to defy expectations:

“Today’s jobs report shows the U.S. economy continues to create jobs at a strong pace even as we enter the longest period of economic expansion on record.” ~Tony Bedikian, Citizens Bank.

According to the BLS Report – June saw 224,000 jobs added; and importantly the private sector wage growth knocks a very solid +3.2% year-over-year. [Table B-8]  You might remember in the May 2019 jobs report 299,000 people moved from Part-Time to Full-Time employment.  In today’s report total payrolls added another 224,000 workers.

These are stunningly numbers.  The 224k new jobs this month is higher than same month last year (2018).  The Main Street economy is continuing to expand.  Private sector growth in wages continues to run above 3% for the 11th straight month.   Wage Growth is a critical driver because over inflation is around 1.3%. Wage growth is more than double inflation.

Key Point: Economic numbers, statistics, are subject to narrative engineering.  Those pushing a negative economic narrative are Wall Street pundits.  Wall St. has a self-interest to push negative economic news to get lower interest rates.  Lower interest rates means cheap money and a higher stock market.

Having said that we can see why Wall Street doomsaying has an inherent motive.  Wall Street wants lower interest rates to make money from borrowing.  However, President Trump also wants lower interest rates for a different reason.

President Trump wants lower interest rates to offset Chinese and EU currency manipulation which is intended to keep their exports cheap and battle Trump’s tariffs.

Wage Growth.  Private Sector wages grew at 3.2%.  [Table B-8]

Overall wage growth of 3.1% is very strong.  Private Sector wage growth of 3.2% is even better, and driven primarily by increased wages in “non-supervisory” payroll; ie. the actual workers (non mgmt). June was the 11th straight month with annual wage gains of at least three percent. Wages for non-supervisory workers continue to rise at a faster rate of 3.4 percent.

With inflation remaining low (1.3% in June); and assuming inflation is relatively unchanged in July; the 3.4% non-supervisory wage growth, at current wage rates, is equivalent to over $900 per year in real wage growth for a blue-collar worker at 40 hours per week.   In may regions of the country these excellent results are actually the low-end.

There are massive parts of the U.S. where the labor market is so hot wage growth is far higher than the national average.  It won’t surprise anyone to hear those areas of highest growth are the same areas where prior economic, trade and manufacturing policy had a negative effect.

President Trump is the blue-collar president.

Since the mid-to-late 1980’s the U.S. economy split into two divergent economic engines. One traditional engine powered by Main Street, and a second engine powered by Wall Street.  For thirty-plus years the distance between those engines was growing as federal monetary policy provided low interest rate support for investment, but the end destination for the investment was NOT in the U.S. [Hence, globalism]

For more than 30 years monetary policy has been driven by Wall Street influence.  FED interest rates made borrowing cheap, but the money -the actual investment itself- flowed out of the United States.  The end product from the investment, steered by multinationals, created products overseas.  Within this flow of capital there was no benefit to Main Street.

President Trump’s America-First policy has reversed the dynamic.   As a result of his focus and demand, the end product(s) from capital investment are now here in the U.S.A.

The MOUSE is money or investment. The CHEESE is end products, manufactured stuff.

Rather than beg the Wall Street investment mouse to change direction in the manufacturing maze, president Trump has simply moved the cheese to Main Street.  The mouse’s travel changed accordingly.

(BEA Table 4 – pdf)

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. (link)

As companies reevaluate the best place for investment (highest return), and they see that Trump’s policies (corp taxes, tariffs, material and labor costs) focus on greatest benefit being inside the U.S, then companies return to Main Street.  This is what has been happening since Trump took office; and it continues through today.

The prices of highly consumable goods (food, fuel, energy) is kept low by Trump policies  that increase energy production and return a genuine supply-side dynamic to domestic production prices. [The battle with Big AG]

Meanwhile multinationals, and some foreign governments, fight to keep their footing abroad (original investment) by keeping down the price of durable goods manufactured overseas.  This is done by increase productivity, adjusted supply chains and retention incentives afforded by the benefiting nation.  This is done to offset Trump tariffs which are designed to influence a shift in the manufacturing process.

The end result of both production dynamics, domestic and abroad, is low inflation.

This price dynamic is happening at the location of output, internally to the operations that are determining the output price, based on their determination of what U.S. market prices will absorb.

Key Point – The pricing is NOT a result of decision-making on new investment; and therefore the pricing dynamic is not able to be impacted or influenced by FED monetary policy.

Only when the majority of manufacturing investment fully returns to the U.S. will FED policy have any significant bearing on manufacturing prices.  This is the parity point where Main Street’s economic engine is recoupled to inflation.

There was 30 years of distance in the FED disconnect, and it will take more than a few years for the recoupling of Main Street to FED monetary policy.

MAGA, bitches.

We are the elites now!

The Fourth of July Celebration continues today as President Donald Trump participates in a Salute to America at the Lincoln Memorial. Approximate time 6:30pm – 7:30pm EST

President Trump honors America’s armed forces with music, military demonstrations, flyovers and much more. Participants will include the Old Guard Fife and Drum Corps, the U.S. Army Band (“Pershing’s Own”), the Armed Forces Chorus, the United States Marine Corps Silent Drill Team, and many others.

RSBN Livestream Link – Fox10 Livestream Link – White House Livestream Link

Capitol Concert – 8 p.m. – 9:30 p.m., West Lawn of the U.S. Capitol: This all-star salute to America’s 243rd birthday with performances by Grammy Award-winning music legend Carole King, multi-platinum recording artist Vanessa Williams, Grammy Award-winning singer-songwriter Colbie Caillat, the National Symphony Orchestra, and a special appearance by the Sesame Street Muppets!

Fireworks Display – 9:07 p.m., National Mall & Neighboring Parks: Independence Day culminates with a spectacular fireworks display launched from West Potomac Park and behind the Lincoln Memorial which will be visible from many locations throughout D.C. and Northern Virginia.

The Republican party presents an Independence Day message from President Trump:

Back in 2015 I explained why CTH would support Donald J Trump, and what the statement: “Make America Great Again”, really meant from my perspective.  Not only has Donald Trump been a President true to his word, he has far exceeded our expectations.

America, our America, is greatest -most blessed- nation on the face of the earth; and every person within her borders is lucky.   I make no apologies for my patriotism and neither does United States President, Donald J Trump.   American independence is a swagger:

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President Trump proudly says: “We will Make America Great Again”, and when I hear that, I hear someone who gives a damn about America.  Actually, physically, purposefully and intently ‘gives-a-damn’ without the hint of apology for it.  And that is buckets more valuable to me than a perfected highly-rehearsed set of 30 second sound bites and think-tank policy.

You see, from my perspective any average hard-working American could eat every one of DC’s political elites’ lunches, all of them; and if they want to go down the intellectual superiority path… well, where it really matters, intellectualism is useless.

• Florida Power and Light won the prestigious International W. Edwards Deming award for excellence in multi-platform engineering quality and efficiency superiority. They didn’t blow every PhD intellectual out of the water with slide rules, CAD programs and engineering acumen.  Nope, they did it with hard hats and dirty fingernails.

Because they lost the award, the Japanese team spent six months studying FPL and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FPL “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: “WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY”….

• When every Kuwaiti oil field was blown up by Saddam Hussein, they said it would take five to ten years to cap them all off and restart their oil pumping industry. The Kuwaiti’s and Saudi’s called Texans; we had them all capped and back in working order in ten months.

We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.

• When the Northern Chile mine workers were trapped two miles underground, they said no-one could save them. Who did they call for help? A bunch of hick miners from USA coal country who went down there, worked on the fly, engineered the rescue equipment on site, and saved every one of them….

That’s our America.

• When a half-breed Islamic whack job, armed with an AK-47 and a goal to meet his imaginary virgins began opening fire on a train in France, the Americans on board didn’t run to the nearest safe room and hide themselves amid baguettes and brie. They said “let’s go”, and beat the stuffing out of that little nut with a death wish.

Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us.  That’s just how we roll.

Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre.  Yet for the better part of the past decade a group of intellectual something-or-others have been teaching an insufferable narrative that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other.

Enough.

When I hear Donald Trump say “Let’s Make America Great Again”, I also hear the familiar echo “cowboy up” people.

It’s high time we stop being embarrassed about our exceptional nature, and start being proud of it again.   Because when it matters most, when it really counts, when it’s really needed, there’s a whole bunch of people all around this world of ours that are mighty happy when swagger walks in to solve their problems.

Yeah, “let’s make America great again”.  Swagger on !

Happy Independence Day !!

Justin Amash, aka “Justin China”, chooses the Fourth of July to announce his political departure from the Republican party.   No big surprise here; and choosing the Washington Post as the venue for his proclamation is a cherry atop his insufferable nonsense.

Justin China is specifically at risk from the ‘America First’ trade and economic policy of President Donald Trump.  [Detailed Here]  With extensive family financial holdings dependent on Chinese manufacturing there is a specific level of transparent self interest.

Additionally, as President Trump noted in his response, Justin was likely to lose a republican primary challenge from within his district that was going to see him removed from office.  His attempt to re-position his political defense while decrying the “partisanship of politics” is the height of hypocrisy.

Good riddance.

After DOJ lawyers representing the Commerce Department informed the court and all parties the 2020 Census was being printed yesterday without the citizenship question, President Trump sent out a tweet today seeming to contradict the announcement by DOJ lawyers:

After reviewing the tweet from President Trump, the Maryland District court called an emergency telephonic hearing.  Here is the transcript [Cloud pdf – Scribd pdf]:

On June 22nd, 2019, President Trump agreed to postpone any deportation enforcement after a call with Speaker Nancy Pelosi:

Two weeks from June 22nd, would be July 8th, 2019.

However, a review of Nancy Pelosi’s congressional calendar reflects Pelosi’s House has been out of session since June 28th, and does not return until July 9th.

This schedule and deadline is exactly why House Democrats are pulling border stunts and urgently pushing media narratives in the headlines.  Pelosi had no intention of fixing the legislative issues; instead, she used the time-delay to create maximum political position for herself, democrats in congress and their media allies.

(Calendar Link)

…..So it does not come as a surprise to see this series of tweets today from President Trump:

WHITE HOUSE – Yesterday, a single, unelected district judge in Seattle issued an injunction that prevents the government from ensuring the detention of those aliens who cross the border unlawfully until the completion of their immigration court proceedings.

The decision ignores an express statutory prohibition on granting class-wide injunctive relief against enforcement of the immigration laws and also holds unconstitutional a statute passed by bipartisan majorities in Congress during the Clinton administration that specifically prohibits the release of certain immigrants on bond.

The district court’s injunction is at war with the rule of law. The decision only incentivizes smugglers and traffickers, which will lead to the further overwhelming of our immigration system by illegal aliens.

No single district judge has legitimate authority to impose his or her open borders views on the country. We must restore our democracy and ensure Americans have the voice to which they are entitled under our Constitution. (link)

Excellent news from White House manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro as he discusses the re-engagement in U.S. and China trade discussions. Great INFO.

You won’t see this interview highlighted by MSM.  As we anticipated the prior 150 page agreement negotiated by USTR Robert Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He, previously dismissed by Beijing after three months of intense discussions, is now the starting point for new talks.  This means the Chinese have acquiesced to the prior terms they rebuked.

The seven chapters, each assigned to a specific trade sector, are the baseline for Lighthizer and Liu He to re-engage.  Excellent news from the position of the U.S. team.

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The CNBC knucklehead injecting about a Hauwei compromise was quickly corrected by Navarro. The Commerce Department restrictions and process for 90-day licenses to do business with Hauwei remains unchanged.

On May 20th, 2019, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, would be issuing Temporary General License (TGL) permits for U.S. business interests who wish to engage in commercial exchanges with Huawei.

The Commerce Department reviews each request, outlines what products can be exchanged, and restricts the company to a transaction of product approved by the license.  Each license lasts 90-days.

“The Temporary General License grants operators time to make other arrangements and the Department space to determine the appropriate long term measures for Americans and foreign telecommunications providers that currently rely on Huawei equipment for critical services,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “In short, this license will allow operations to continue for existing Huawei mobile phone users and rural broadband networks.”  (link)

Additionally, with the exception of the transactions explicitly authorized by the Temporary General License, any exports, reexports, or in country transfers of items subject to the Export Administration Regulation (EAR) will continue to require a special license granted after a review by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under a presumption of denial.

Under the new regulations any company wishing to engage in a commercial transaction with Huawei has to apply and gain pre-approval from the U.S. Commerce Department.  Hence, the issuance of a 90-day license.  Any product or service not approved by the license is not allowed to be exchanged.

This process began on May 20th and still exists today.  This process is what President Trump was referencing when he announced the U.S. and China would restart trade negotiations as it related to Huawei.  Specifically when the president said: “Ross will evaluate each request”.

Nothing can be purchased from, or sold to, Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd and/or its sixty-eight non-U.S. affiliates, without getting permission from the U.S. commerce department.  Nothing in the agreement between President Trump and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping changes that process.

Navarro is now confirming Beijing has accepted the closed chapters of the prior negotiation as a starting point between the Chinese and U.S. teams.  The agreements between all parties, prior to the collapse, is now the agreed starting point.

This indicates the hawks in Beijing, those who formerly balked, have now retreated from their antagonistic position toward the agreement negotiated by Liu He.

It is likely they saw growing ramifications and consequences over the past 30+ days.  In essence, after getting a taste of what was coming, Beijing saw a cycle of continual collapse as their future; they had no option but to try and stop the downward spiral.

This internal outlook, overlaying their historic zero-sum perspective, would make sense given the latest developments; partly because the reality of an increasingly losing position was their new baseline. A cessation of further damage was their best scenario.

Summary: Trump forced Beijing to see less-loss as the better loss.

However, as noted in the attitude of President Trump, he retains the larger tariff level despite China’s re-engagement.  Trump has allowed the restart itself to be the face-saving Xi needed, yet he retains the prior tariff gains.   Team Trump yielded nothing back.

Do not take this dynamic lightly.  China has never negotiated for, nor accepted, less-lossbefore.  Understanding this is new ground for them we can only imagine the anxiety within internal discussions.  Vice-Premier Liu He cannot turn to the Beijing Hawks and say: ‘I told you so’. He can only start again and hope the same outcome does not repeat.

Both teams know the prior closed chapters were negotiated in good faith by Liu He, Robert Lightizer and Mnuchin.  It wasn’t the U.S. who walked away from prior commitments. Therefore it makes additional sense for Chairman Xi to offer the Ag purchases as a show of good faith; and, in turn, President Trump gives the optics of compromise on high-tech.

Returning to the original point of collapse, the stickler point was/is the enforcement mechanism if China cheats.  This is where Lighthizer had built sector-by-sector, product-by-product, escalating and countervailing tariffs into the compliance chapters.

Unlike traditional trade agreements with one enforcement chapter that encompasses all of the sectors within the aggregate agreement, Bob Lighthizer built specific enforcement mechanisms into each sector.  Essentially, each product had it’s own compliance requirements unique to the sector of trade.

That multi-layered compliance is where China recoiled because they saw the U.S. as having ultimate decision-making about whether the rules were being followed.  However, that construct was/is the unidirectional price Lighthizer was applying due to the history of Chinese duplicity and cheating.

Any U.S. company (or U.S. entity) harmed by Chinese trade practices (ie. ‘cheating‘, ‘theft’, ‘coercion’, etc.) would have a set of enforcement provisions to protect their interests specific to their unique sector inside the agreement.  The scale of this approach is rather overwhelming to consider; however, as Lighthizer told congress this is the only way to insure compliance and protect very diverse U.S. trade interests.

You have to write the agreement while predicting the other party will attempt to lie, cheat and steal; and they will do so with the sanctioning of the communist government.

Lost in all of the discussions by western media is the fact that no-one has ever attempted to structure a comprehensive and enforceable trade agreement with China before.  What the U.S. team is attempting will be the road-map for all other nations who will likely write similar agreements of their own.

Writing a trade agreement between a free-market (USA) and a controlled-market (China) is where the challenge lies.  One of the inherent issues will always be how the free-market system can hold the controlled-market system accountable if they cheat.

Given the controlled-market’s governmental support for the cheaters, the accountability will naturally have to come from outside the system.   It remains to be seen if it can be done.

Arguably President Trump has a disposition that he doesn’t see how a deal is possible. However, Trump is willing to allow Lighthizer, who really is brilliant (along with Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary Ross), plenty of space to approach this problem with unique solutions.

As President Trump just said: “The quality of the transaction is far more important to me than speed. I am in no hurry.”

The tariffs will continue until behavior improves.

Many Democrat presidential candidates will be traveling to Iowa for July 4th events as part of their campaign effort.  Interestingly, according to the recent updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Iowa has some of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation:

(Waterloo Iowa Headline Link)

Iowa has three of the top five lowest unemployment regions in the nation:

(BLS DATA) In May, Ames, IA, and Burlington-South Burlington, VT, had the lowest unemployment rates, 1.5 percent each, followed by Midland, TX, 1.7 percent; Iowa City, IA, 1.8 percent; and Dubuque, IA, 1.9 percent.

While Democrats have falsely been saying the economy isn’t working for all Americans, the facts are that blue-collar middle-class Americans have been the largest beneficiaries.

The periods when GDP exceeds potential are typically when workers enjoy the greatest wage gains and members of historically sidelined communities find jobs. In recent years, those periods have not lasted long, a fact that Fed and other officials are wrestling with as they weigh possible interest rate cuts and assess just where the U.S. economy now stands. (link)

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Reuters Top News

✔@Reuters

As U.S. expansion notches record, recovery may have only just begun https://reut.rs/2Nr3NZc 

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1:50 AM – Jul 1, 2019

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