Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Nov 19, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: How long has Socrates been making political forecasts. Was it ever wrong?
ANSWER: The only election I would say that Socrates was both correct and wrong was that of 2000. It projected that Al Gore would win. Of course, that election went to the Supreme Court and they stopped the count and handed it to Bush. Later, the final count showed that Al Gore had won by 500,000 votes.
Other than that, Socrates has NEVER been wrong on any election. Even back in 1999, I delivered perhaps the most shocking political forecast that was ever made by Socrates – the Japan election. I stood up in Tokyo and forecast that the LDP would lose for the first time since World War II. That really did send shock waves in Japan and the LDP was not happy. Our clients in Japan believed that the entire case brought against me and Princeton Economics was instigated by the LDP because of our forecast that they would lose the election which is what took place.
Our Japanese clients believed that the entire case against me was set in motion by the LDP who had sent a letter to the Federal Reserve asking to confirm that we had $10 billion on deposit at Republic National Bank on August 18th, 1999 which was being sold to HSBC for $10 billion. The bank panicked, stole the $1 billion that was on deposit, ran to the Fed, and said $10 billion was missing and they had no idea where it was. The US authorities went back to ask to please confirm, for back then $10 billion was huge. Then 13 days later, the Japanese responded – oh so sorry, $1 billion. But the bankers had stolen the $1 billion and then could not put it back.
I did an interview in the Japanese press and told my clients the bank stole the money and they had to come file suit against the bank or they would NEVER see a dime knowing the US prosecutors ALWAYS protect the bankers in New York. They did, which is why those suits forced Republic/HSBC to plead guilty.
The government sold our notes to HSBC to hid the fact they were wrong from the outset. They then assisted HSBC to take our profit of $400 million since the notes were in Japanese yen and the move between the yen from 1995 to 1999 saw the yen collapse from 75:1 to 147:1. The US authorities could not allow this case to ever go to trial because they never understood the currency. When they did, they would have looked stupid so they hid the truth from the world to protect their personal careers.
To prevent me from helping my clients against Republic/HSBC, the corrupt court imposed a lifetime gag order on me to prevent me from providing evidence to my own clients who had filed lawsuits against the bank.
Hence, I never had any restitution, the bank’s deal, as always, they made everyone whole and no banker went to prison, and they got to keep our $400 million profit. This is the way real corruption works in New York. I seriously doubt that a few extra bucks were not shared by those prosecuting and sitting in judgment over this absurd case. As Sydney Powell explained in her books – prosecutors always just lie.
So, to answer the question about Socrates’ political forecasts, I think they have been spot on for a very long time.