Posted originally on The Conservative Tree House on December 20, 2020 by Sundance
An interesting article from the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) is gaining increased attention as questions about asymptomatic spread of COVID-19, the baseline for all COVID mitigation, is being reconciled with the latest tracing data.
In essence, the larger question being asked is: can people without coronavirus symptoms spread the COVID-19 virus? This question is at the heart of all current COVID mitigation efforts. If there is no asymptomatic spread then what is all of this mask wearing nonsense and shut-down mandates all about?
A research paper published on November 20th highlights a case study of almost 10 million people in China. What the study found was there were 300 cases of Coronavirus in the population being carried without any symptoms at all. So the scientists then tracked the asymptomatic carriers. The contact tracing of 1,174 “close contacts” with the asymptomatic carriers showed ZERO transmission. Not a few, not a couple, but zero -none- not a single transmission of Coronavirus from a person without symptoms.
The conclusion is not that asymptomatic spread is rare or that the science is uncertain. The study revealed something that hardly ever happens in these kinds of studies. There was not one documented case. Forget rare. Forget even Fauci’s previous suggestion that asymptomatic transmission exists but not does drive the spread. Replace all that with: never. At least not in this study for 10,000,000.
[STUDY] … Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated.
No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
One might suppose that this would be huge news. It would allow us to open up everything immediately. With the whole basis for post-curve-flattening lockdowns crumbled, we could go back to living a normal life. The fear could evaporate. We could take comfort in our normal intuition that healthy people can get out and about with no risk to others. We could take off our masks. We could go to movies and sports events.
… We keep hearing about how we should follow the science. The claim is tired by now. We know what’s really happening. The lockdown lobby ignores whatever contradicts their narrative, preferring unverified anecdotes over an actual scientific study of 10 million residents in what was the world’s first major hotspot for the disease we are trying to manage. You would expect this study to be massive international news. So far as I can tell, it is being ignored. [More]
In essence, what the study of 10 million people confirmed is what many people, doctors, scientists and World Health Organization already suspected.
Like the common cold and flu when a person is infected with the virus they are only infecting others when they have symptoms: cold, runny nose, coughing, aching, sneezing, fever, congestion etc; hence, when a person has an illness they should isolate to not spread the virus. However, when a person has no external symptoms of the virus, just like the cold and flu, they are not a risk of transmitting the virus to others.
♦ This is a major issue with massive ramifications because all of the current COVID-19 mitigation effort is based on the principle that people can carry and spread the virus while having no idea they have it, and no symptoms.
If asymptomatic transmission is not happening, and it appears with scientific certainty it is not, then all of the current lock-down regulations, mask wearing requirements and social distancing rules/decrees are based on a complete fallacy of false assumptions.
The asymptomatic case study published in November affirms the earlier reporting from the World Health Organization that COVID-19 is only known to transmit from people who are showing symptoms of the virus. In June of 2020, Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the World Health Organization’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said transmission of the coronavirus by people who aren’t showing symptoms is “very rare.”
As you can see from the video explanation, in June 2020 Ms. Kerkhove could not identify a single study or case that was traced to asymptomatic spread; but scientists still thought it might be possible so she -and others- kept using the “very rare” terminology.
However, with the latest information and a far more lengthy timeline to study the disease, the cumulative 2020 data shows “very rare” actually means “never”, asymptomatic spread just doesn’t happen – EVER.
So why is the entire world engaged in COVID-19 mitigation processes to block the transmission of a virus that has never, not even once, been identified as occurring?