The Disease Cycle

Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jul 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, You have forecasted that your disease model turned up here in 2022. COVID was exploited, but it was no worse than the flu. Then there is monkeypox. But the latest is the much more lethal Marburg virus in Africa. Is this going to be the real one?


ANSWER: The model did not target a specific virus. There are serious outbreaks throughout history but they are not always the same virus or bacteria. The history of this particular virus only goes back to 1967. This particular virus has a base cycle of 5-year intervals. The major outbreak was 2004-2005 which lasted into 2008. Ideally, our model projected that would reappear in 2013 and it showed up in 2012 a little ahead of schedule.

A major outbreak should come in the 2027-2028 time period. But keep in mind that this has not turned into a pandemic and has been confined to Africa. It is spread through bodily fluids so which usually involves sex or touching an open sore. So I would not be concerned that this will spread to your neighborhood without human intervention. The most devastating disease cycle will be from 2027 into 2050.

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