Category Food and Agriculture

May 13 2022

Marjorie Taylor Greene, Food Security is National Security


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance 

Earlier today ultra-MAGA representative Marjorie Taylor Greene delivered remarks about the failures of the Biden administration as they are reflected in the continual food security and pricing crisis.   I strongly recommend watching these brief remarks, very impressive.

MTG accurately identifies the origin of the current baby formula crisis, as an outcome of stress within the supply chain caused by government intervention into the overall system.  MTG then notes that FDA rules and regulations make supply interruptions worse.

Additionally, in the background of the federal DHS and HHS contracts for food products, including baby food/formula, most of those federal contracts contain a ‘first right‘ or ‘prioritized continuity‘ provision, creating a distribution outcome (via contractual mandate) where illegal aliens end up with preferential allocation.  WATCH (2:55 mins):

Apr 13 2022

Ukraine v Russian Empire


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Apr 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: We elected Zelensky who promised to end the civil war. It looks like the West is telling him not to compromise and let the Russian section go.

DH (from Ukraine)

ANSWER: On Sunday, CBS News program “60 Minutes” aired an interview with Zelensky. I believe Zelensky is still claiming evidence of Russian war crimes, saying: “We are defending the ability of a person to live in the modern world.” Despite what the press says, this is a Proxy War against Russia and the US, along with the EU and Britain. They are quite happy to use the Ukrainian people as cannon fodder. There is no possible way all of these countries would allow Zelensky to address their own people UNLESS this was a Proxy War.

The Dnieper River which runs 1,423 miles and today is the border between Belarus and Russia, was also the border of Ukraine with Russia during the Tsarist Empire at the time of Mikhail I (1613-1645) of the Romanov Dynasty. Zelensky’s claims that Putin has invaded a sovereign nation are debatable. Eastern Ukraine today was assigned to it for administrative purposes during the USSR. It was never Ukrainian territory. It is very hard to see why it is worth killing your own people for a territory that has been occupied by Russians for centuries.

This is obviously a Proxy War, and despite whatever the press says, the West is using the Ukrainian people as the Vanguard in this battle against Russia. They cannot declare war on Russia legally, so they have used Ukraine. Zelensky seems happy to accommodate, blaming civilian deaths on Putin when he shared responsibility for this war.

In Crimea, the population is predominantly Russian and Tatars where there is a population of about 250,000, accounting for about 10% of the total.

Apr 6 2022

Danish Politician Advises EU Residents to Avoid Long Showers


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Apr 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Danish Politician Margrethe Vestager is utterly uninformed about the true factors surrounding rising inflation among the 19 counties in the European Union (EU). According to EU politicians, the only problem is Russia, and the only solution is for the people of the EU to continue sacrificing their quality of life.

“Everyone is asking what I can do. You can do two things: control your own and your teenagers’ showers. And when you turn off that water, you say — “Take that Putin!” Vestager stated, declaring that limited hot showers, a simple pleasure in life, could be an act of unity with Ukraine. Putin will not ask his troops to retreat because you let your hygiene decline. This is another measure to punish the people for the ignorance of politicians.

Germany’s economic minister Robert Habeck went as far as denying the supply chain crisis. “There are currently no supply shortages,” Habeck remarked. “Nevertheless, we must increase precautionary measures in order to be prepared in the event of an escalation on the part of Russia.” Instead of making any attempt to become less reliant on Russian energy, the politicians are simply asking the people to consume less energy. Consuming less is not a solution. It is an insult to the people living within the European Union who had no say in voting for the decision-makers in charge who are sending the entire bloc into a downward spiral.

Apr 4 2022

The Myth of Green Energy


Published originally on Rumple by Energycademy  on January 31, 2022

This video looks at the official definition of green energy and critically examines how well solar and wind energy, two of the most popular form of green energy, match the official definition.

#greenenergy #solarenergy #windenergy #cleanenergy

Apr 4 2022

German Grocers Warn Consumers of Significant Second Wave Price Increases


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 3, 2022 | Sundance

The inflationary impact to any specific country is directly proportionate to the scale of the government intervention in the COVID lockdown spend.  Almost all of the nations who deployed the WEF program are in the same inflationary position.

The U.S., U.K., New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the EU, within which Germany is the largest economy, all followed the WEF spending instructions.

(Germany) – According to the German Retail Association (HDE), consumers should prepare for another wave of price hikes for everyday goods and groceries.

Even before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, prices had risen by about five per cent “across the product range” as a result of increased energy prices, HDE President Josef Sanktjohanser told the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung on Friday.

With Russia’s invasion hitting economies and the supply chain harder, yet another series of price increases is on the horizon. “The second wave of price increases is coming, and it will certainly be in double figures,” Sanktjohanser warned. (read more)

Every time the supermarket checkout rings, a yellow vested rebel is created.

Apr 2 2022

March Jobs Report Shows Increase of 431,000 Jobs Added


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 1, 2022 | Sundance 

My apologies in getting late to this but the BLS has completely revamped the way they calculate employment and all of the familiar data tables are revised. So, it takes a little longer to get to cut through the clutter and get to the data that matters.

Overall, the BLS report [DATA Here] shows 431,000 jobs regained in March from the government closures during the pandemic.

Despite the job regain number being less than expected, it’s not bad at all.

As expected, leisure and hospitality jobs [Table B-1] showed the strongest rebound with 112,000 jobs. With 25,000 job gains in hotels and 61,000 in food services (restaurants).  A little more than 2 million jobs have been regained in the last year from the COVID-19 lockdowns in this sector.

There are a few troubling indicators like a decrease in residential building jobs (-2,600), and a surprising decrease of 6,000 jobs in trucking and transportation.  Retail overall gained 49,000 jobs with most of them in the food and beverage sales sector.  However, retail furniture stores lost 1,600, electronics stores lost 1,300 and garden supply stores lost 1,900.

The retail job pattern would seem to indicate consumer spending being squeezed and priorities on spending leading to job losses in non-priority retail shops.  Boosting the disposable income concern, is a statistically significant loss of 5,000 jobs in the retail beauty and personal care stores.

On the upside, business and professional service jobs in March had a nice lift with 102,000 jobs added.

Overall, as we would expect, the national employment picture looks much like the economy that overlays it.  Jobs in food creation, sales and distribution are holding strong as a consumer priority.   However, jobs in convenience stuff, indulgent stuff, and luxury sector items are contracting.  Meanwhile the job losses in trucking are a little odd.

Wages have increased 5.6% on a yearly basis, but still significantly lags inflation.   The average workweek and overtime declined slightly in March (0.1/hrs), so there’s not any real demand side pressure visible upon the manufacturing workforce.

Apr 2 2022

Report: Chicken, Pork and Beef Prices Likely to Skyrocket Due to Massive Increases in Feed Costs


Posted originally on the conservative three house on April 1, 2022

Hopefully this does not come as a surprise to readers here; however, according to analysis by industry insiders, Chicken prices are likely to increase by 70% this year once the full price increases in grain, used as feed, start to take hold.  Overall, we will likely see a leveling off in beef prices, but pork (due to soybeans) and chicken (due to grain) will increase significantly.

The issue is one we noted in December of last year when identifying the downstream consequences of fertilizer and component products used for the production of corn, wheat and soybeans crops. “You might say those crops do not seem like they are that important.  However, keep in mind that Corn, Wheat and Soybeans represent the baseline for not only grain production in the U.S, but they are also the primary feed products for proteins: chicken, pork and beef.” {Go Deep}

(Fox Business) – Evercore ISI issued a protein inflation note this week projecting that most protein prices are forecasted to increase “substantially” due to the higher feed costs, with chicken breast reaching as high as 70% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  The analysis said pork and ground beef could climb as high as 20% year-over-year during the same period. (more)

That was last year. Those prices have doubled since then. GO DEEP

These anticipated price increases now being projected are what CTH refers to as the tail end of the second inflation wave.  We entered the second wave last month driven by massive fuel and gasoline increases.  Those costs will join with the fertilizer costs and create a snowball effect in the food sector.

Statistically the 2022 inflationary measure will look lower, because when the biggest part of the second wave hits, it will be cycling around in comparison time to the beginning of the first wave in 2021.  The percentage of change will be lower; however, the actual dollar increase in this second wave on food products will be higher than the first.

Apr 2 2022

Finally, a White House Journalist Ask a Direct and Pertinent Question About Rising Prices and Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 1, 2022 | Sundance

Apparently, this question was asked by Jacqui Heinrich (Fox News) at the tail and of the White House presser.  The question is the first time this year that a stenographer for the regime has accurately put correct context on the inflation talking points from the White House.

As each datapoint from the economy has been reported, the White House has blamed Russia and Vladimir Putin for the bad economic data.  However, as Heinrich accurately states, none of the resulting impact from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been quantified in the data.  That post Russian invasion data begins in March, will not surface until reports later this month.  WATCH:

Good question. Finally.

Mar 29 2022

We Are in Trouble, White House Journalist Asks Senior WH Official if Farmers Should Change Crops This Year


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 28, 2022 

There are often questions raised about whether the crises created by the Biden White House policy are incompetence or intentional.  For the group that believes ‘incompetence‘ is behind the chaos, well, they gained a significant data point today.

During a White House press briefing a reporter asks, “My question is about how the White House plans to prepare for food shortages, particularly as it comes to wheat …. should U.S. farmers grow more wheat this year instead of corn and soybeans given the possible food shortages?”

The Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Cecilia Rouse, answered” …”farmers respond to price signals. So, with the price of food rising, they will be responding by making additional plantings and trying to take advantage of the increased price signal.  So, the market will work as the market will work.”  Please WATCH 16:32 Prompted

The reporter and the Chair of the CEA seemingly have no idea how long it takes to farm or grow a crop.  As if switching from corn to wheat was just a Monday decision.  Good grief, June/July harvests for winter wheat this year were planted in October of last year.

Changing a crop in the spring for harvest in the summer is not akin to changing your regular order of beverages at Starbucks.

Mar 23 2022

The Coming Dust Bowl – 2025-2027?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Mar 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; You have been the first to warn of food shortages and to stockpile for the years ahead. With Russia and Ukraine accounting for 30% of global wheat, you have warned that we are looking a shortages into 2032. Does this mean the war will last for 10 years?

LC

ANSWER: No, the forecasts for shortages into 2024 are actually divided into two primary causes. There was a major crisis in crop failures in 1846-1847, which also provided the economic reasons for the 1848 Communist Revolutions throughout Europe when agriculture was 70% of the economy back then. This was followed by the next great drought which became known as the “Dust Bowl” during the years of 1935-1936. Note, this had nothing to do with CO2 and the Industrial Revolution. While the Dust Bowl was a 10 year struggle for farmers, it certainly varied from city to city. Generally 1935 to 1936 was the worse of it and by 1937 the trend began to reverse.

Our model warns that we may see another severe drought probably between 2025 to 2027 in both the US and Canada. The drought conditions are already beginning and this is in line with our model which warns it will expand into the 2025-2027 period.

Therefore, to answer your question more directly, it appears that we have a shortage first instigated by the outrageous stupidity of COVID management, and this is the accelerated by the War Cycles, and it will conclude with the weather cycle which will only add to the shortages post-2024.