June Jobs Report Shows Gains of 372,000, April and May Reports Revised Downward by 74,000


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 8, 2022 | sundance 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the June jobs report [Data Here] showing 372,000 job gains on the establishment survey of businesses.  However, the April and May reports were revised downward by 74,000 jobs, and there is an odd disconnect between the survey of businesses and the survey of households.

The survey of businesses (BLS establishment report) shows job gains of 372k for the month of June, but the survey of households (BLS household report) shows that fewer people are working.  The labor-force participation rate slipped to 62.2% from a previous high of 62.4%, fewer people are working.

This odd disconnect has many people wondering what is going on?

Wage growth comes in at 5.1% on an annual basis, which is far below the current BLS calculated rate of inflation at 8.6%. Meaning wage growth is not keeping up with inflation despite workers entering the labor force at a higher entry level wage.

Economists overall are flummoxed as job gains would indicate a strong economy. However, the actual economic activity, the creation of goods and services, is not growing.  Quite the opposite appears.  Orders for factory goods have dropped, inventories of currently available goods are climbing, and sales figures across a broad spectrum of companies are negative.  The economy as measured by the creation of goods and services is stalled, but the economy as a measure of employment is firm.

Table B-1 of the BLS report shows where the jobs gains are being recorded.  Employment in professional and business services added 74,000 jobs in June, employment in leisure and hospitality added 67,000. Transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs, and manufacturing increased by 29,000. Simultaneously, retail ‘general merchandise’ stores lost 7,000 jobs, and residential building construction lost 4,500 jobs.

It would appear that as spending priorities are definitely taking place; the jobs growth is in the current maintenance of lifestyle and not the ‘moving up’ in lifestyle.  This would align with the general sentiment of the labor force that most people are just trying to get through the massive inflation impact and sustain their current rate of household expenses.

The decline in the labor force in June “is hard to explain,” said chief economist Aneta Markowska of Jefferies LLC, in light of the strong demand for labor. (link)

It’s really not that hard to figure out what is happening.  Well, I should say, not that hard to figure out, unless your job is to pretend not to know things.

Facing Public Backlash Manhattan DA Lowers Bail for 61-Year-Old Convenience Store Clerk, Jose Alba, in Clear Self Defense Case


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 7, 2022 | Sundance 

The Safari Rules are surfacing again….

Jose Alba, 61, was working at Hamilton Heights Grocery on Broadway when a 35-year-old career criminal and ex-con, Austin Simon, stormed behind the counter and shoved him into a wall.  Austin Simon then continued to aggressively push Alba around, when the clerk grabbed a knife to defend himself and stabbed his attacker, Simon.

The entire incident was captured on CCTV footage [SEE HERE, Rumble], and the series of events were triggered when Simon’s girlfriend did not have enough money for her purchase and Jose Alba would not let her just take it without paying.  The boyfriend, Austin Simon, then enters the store, walks behind the counter and begins assaulting the 61-year-old Mr. Alba.  After a few minutes of being shoved and pushed around, Alba then grabbed a knife and stabbed Simon.  The attacker died of his injuries.  The store clerk was arrested by police, charged with murder and sent to jail with a $500,000 bail.

New York – The hard-working Manhattan bodega worker who was languishing on Rikers Island after being charged with murder for fending off a violent ex-con inside his store could be home as soon as Thursday night after a judge agreed to lower his hefty bail.

Jose Alba, who was being held on $250,000 bail in the Friday night caught-on-video attack, is due to be sprung after Manhattan prosecutors asked a judge to lower the amount to $50,000 — with relatives and Alba’s boss putting up the $5,000 needed to spring him on a bail bond. 

Alba’s attorney, Danielle Jackson of Neighborhood Defender Service of Harlem, assured the judge that her client was going nowhere.

“He has every intention to return to court and defend this case,” Jackson said.

Prosecutors with District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office had initially requested that Alba be held on $500,000 bail at his arraignment Saturday, citing a planned trip to the Dominican Republic next week as proof that he was a flight risk.

In court, Manhattan prosecutors charged Alba with second-degree murder, but refused to file charges against Simon’s girlfriend for stabbing the bodega worker.

More than 20 relatives and supporters packed the courtroom for the video-feed court hearing in support of the beleaguered bodega worker.

Simon’s family, meanwhile, stormed out of court in tears, with his sister saying, that he “was murdered in cold blood.”  “If the shoe was on the other foot my brother wouldn’t have gotten bail or bond or nothing,” she said.  (read more)

Unfortunately, there is a racial component to this as blacks and Latinos have historically been two groups with friction between them.   Then overlay the black grievance industry, and the last decade of efforts to excuse any amount of criminal conduct by black males, and the narrative becomes very familiar.  It’s the “Safari Principle.”

Essentially, the rules of the safari say you should remain indoors, or in a locked vehicle, when there are predators (young black males) in the vicinity.  If you exit your vehicle in the safari, or otherwise engage the predators, they are not to blame for your injury or death.  This social acceptance of black violence is part of the reparations process advanced by progressives and leftists.

Under the rules of the safari, you are not allowed to defend yourself from any predatory attack, and all attacks are triggered by the behavior of the victim when the attack starts.  Famously another Latino named George Zimmerman was arrested by an activist prosecutor in Florida for defending himself against an attack by a black male named Trayvon Martin.

Police Officer Darren Wilson in Ferguson Missouri also learned the rules of the safari when he was attacked by another black male named Michael Brown.  Wilson shot and killed Brown after the predator attacked him in his vehicle; however, Wilson was run out of town by angry mob who wanted him arrested for defending himself and doing his job.

As the Safari Rules have continued to evolve under the culturally Marxist advancements by Black Lives Matter, the current rules emphasize that all black male predators are to be excused for their violent behavior immediately and no self-defense is permitted.

Mr. Jose Alba has now entered into the Safari Rules legal process.

White House Press Secretary Claims Current U.S. Status is Best Economy in Our Nation’s History


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 7, 2022 | Sundance 

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is, at this point, transparently identified as the least qualified and capable person to hold that position in modern history.  She genuinely is lacking the ability to articulate intelligent responses to any questions.

It is also obvious to those who have followed Biden personnel decisions, that KJP was selected because she would spout the information given to her by Chief-of-Staff Ron Klain without a moment’s hesitation.  She is not intelligent enough to know the talking points are complete nonsense.  She spouts the most ridiculous talking points in a manner that reflects she believes them.  That said, her capacity to stumble through nonsense and pretend it is real is only surpassed by Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.

Today from the White House podium, Ms. Karine Jean-Pierre actually made the claim that our current economy is the strongest in our nation’s history.  WATCH:

It is one thing to politically ‘spin’ reality, it is another thing entirely to politically manufacture reality.

How Western Sanctions Crippled Syria


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jul 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The West has placed some form of sanctions on Syria since the Carter Administration when the nation was added to the State Sponsors of Terrorism List. George W. Bush increased sanctions in 2004 to push the “War on Terror” agenda as the US invaded sovereign nations under false pretenses. However, it was not until 2011 that the sanctions against Syria really caused the economy to fold.

Former President Obama implemented new sanctions that directly target the Syrian oil sector. This wave of sections forbids all petroleum investments and imports as well as exports. Individual assets for individuals and entities were frozen as well. Obama vowed not to lift sanctions until President Bashar al-Assad stepped down. The US used the pretense of Assad being a brutal leader who the people needed to be liberated from with the help of the world police force aka America. Transcripts from Obama’s 2011 executive order:

“The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way… As a part of that effort, my Administration is announcing unprecedented sanctions to deepen the financial isolation of the Assad regime and further disrupt its ability to finance a campaign of violence against the Syrian people.  I have signed a new Executive Order requiring the immediate freeze of all assets of the Government of Syria subject to U.S. jurisdiction and prohibiting U.S. persons from engaging in any transaction involving the Government of Syria.  This E.O. also bans U.S. imports of Syrian-origin petroleum or petroleum products; prohibits U.S. persons from having any dealings in or related to Syria’s petroleum or petroleum products; and prohibits U.S. persons from operating or investing in Syria. We expect today’s actions to be amplified by others.”

The European Union placed sanctions on Syria in 2011, as did the UK. Syria was essentially cut off from the world economy, and the hope of readmittance vanished in 2019 when former President Trump signed the Caesar Syria Protection Act. The act was named after a Syrian detainee names Caesar who documented human rights abuses and war crimes allegedly carried out by the Assad regime. Once the Caesar Act passed, there was no hope for Syria. People could not even send money to their relatives in Syria without repercussion. The US outlined six demands that needed to be met to lift the sanctions:

  1. End to Syrian and Russian aircraft bombing civilians.
  2. Iranian, Syrian and Russian forces, as well as entities connected to them, no longer restrict humanitarian access to besieged areas and allow for civilians to leave freely.
  3. All political prisoners are released, and the appropriate international human rights organizations are given full access to Syria’s prisons and detention facilities.
  4. Bombing of “medical facilities, schools, residential areas, and community gathering places, including markets” by Syrian, Russian, Iranian forces, as well as entities connected to them, ceases.
  5. The possibility for the “safe, voluntary, and dignified return of Syrians displaced by the conflict” is achieved.
  6. Accountability for “perpetrators of war crimes in Syria and justice for victims of war crimes committed by the Assad regime, including by participation in a credible and independent truth and reconciliation process.”

It all ties back to the US and Russia vying for Syrian oil. Both sides were bombing Syria into oblivion. The US has not lifted sanctions despite desperate cries for help from the Syrian people. At least 1.5% of the entire population of Syria is now dead, and over 90% live in extreme poverty. Biden recently claimed sanctions do not work, but he was referring to a country with a larger GDP and established infrastructure. Russia was able to bypass the sanctions, continue trading with allies, and most importantly hold power over one of the world’s most important natural resources. It is no wonder that Syrian men are fighting along with Russia against the West and will likely align with Eastern powers for generations to come.

The President is Not a Patriot


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jul 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Joe Biden incited violence on Independence Day by claiming that the country was “moving backward.” Is he not the elected official in control of America? Biden was referencing the Supreme Court decision to remove abortion as a constitutional right. This is his very last talking point to garner votes as his administration has managed to ruin the nation’s economy in record time.

“Liberty is under assault, both here and abroad,” Biden stated. “In recent days, there’s been reason to think this country is moving backward, that freedom is being reduced, that rights we assumed were protected are no longer.”

The president was not alone in his anti-America tirade. A slew of celebrities took to the internet over the weekend to criticize America as well, claiming that Independence Day celebrations were canceled this year due to the Roe v. Wade ruling. These same celebrities live luxurious lives due to the rights offered to them by the Constitution. They are also the same people who notoriously back the left during campaigns and offer free publicity for politicians. Forget the fact that people can no longer afford to live due to inflation fueled by the policies of the current administration. They want to divert our attention away from the real problems so that we see America as a failed nation – divided we fall.

Monmouth Poll Compiles Top 22 Priorities of American People, Ukraine v Russia and J6 Committee Outcome Does Not Appear on List


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 5, 2022 | Sundance 

Monmouth University conducted another political poll of U.S respondents [SEE Survey HERE].  In addition to the plummeting approval of Joe Biden, the worst yet approval at 36% according to the survey, the respondents were asked to list their top concerns (Question #7).

The responses were recorded but did not come from a list presented by Monmouth.  They just compiled the results.  As stated, “what is the biggest concern facing your family right now?”  The results show the top priorities of Americans and the disconnect between the priorities of congress and the American people are stark.

(Source, Question #7)

Nowhere on the expressed concerns did anyone identify supporting Ukraine or the Russia -v- Ukraine conflict, as a priority; yet, Ukraine has taken up almost all of the legislative effort from congress.  The total taxpayer-funded congressional spending is nearing $100 billion.  Additionally absent from the concerns of the American people, is any mention of the January 6th committee; again, another time wasted political exercise by a congress detached from the priorities of the electorate.

The top priorities are what we would expect to see, economic issues.  Inflation, Gas Prices, the Economy and the ability to pay everyday bills (groceries) are the priorities of the American people.  All of these issues are directly caused by Joe Biden and the policy of his administration.  Climate change, the #1 focus of the administration, is not even in the top ten.  We are in an abusive relationship with our own government.

Biden Energy Agency Quietly Starts Manipulating Weekly “On Highway Diesel Fuel Prices”, Looks Like an Effort to Block Higher Fuel Surcharges and Control Transportation Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 5, 2022 | Sundance

[Hat Tip Mailroom] This is a very interesting little bureaucratic energy issue with big downstream ramifications.

Almost every transportation and manufacturing company uses the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) “weekly publication of average diesel prices” in order to calculate shipping costs.  According to people in the industry, “this national average is what almost every trucking and logistics company bases their fuel surcharges on.”

However, on June 13th the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, stopped reporting the average weekly diesel price.  For almost a month companies have been using an outdated average price in order to calculate shipping costs and fuel surcharges. [See Screengrab]

Originally the EIA said, “We are implementing new methodology to estimate weekly on-highway diesel fuel prices. On June 13, we started conducting the On-Highway Diesel Fuel Price Survey using new statistical methodologies.” {LINK} However, the EIA has not updated anything since that announcement.

As a result, all of the transportation charges and fuel surcharges have been underestimated and priced for almost a full month.  The political motive for this move is transparent, it stops higher diesel prices from being passed along in the supply chain… which gives an artificial pause on inflation that comes as an outcome of higher diesel transportation costs (specifically trucking).  As explained to CTH:

“The department of energy has not published a national average of diesel fuel prices since the week of June 13. In all of their decades of doing this, they have never missed a week, until that week.  This EIA national average is what almost every trucking and logistics company bases their fuel surcharges on.

The DOE “changed their methodology” for calculating this and the week it was supposed to go live, their systems “crashed” (hacked?).

This is going to be a billing nightmare for trucking companies and shippers alike. The lobbying agencies in the transportation company ATA, TIA, TCA, NPTC, have all been very quiet about this. Bad stuff with lots of trickle-down implications.”

One way to tackle inflation is to take away accurate government statistics, that are used as accepted benchmarks by private industry, to calculate downstream prices.

Can you think of another reason for the political and ideological Dept of Energy to stop giving accurate estimates of current average diesel prices?

This sounds like a Dept of Energy version of “hide the ships“…

UPDATE: Suspect Captured, Highland Park Suspected Shooter Identified as 22-Year-Old, Robert E Crimo III, Suspect Vehicle 2010 Silver Honda Fit


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 4, 2022 | Sundance 

UPDATE: Suspect Captured. The suspect in the Highland Park, Illinois, mass shooting has been identified as 22-year-old Robert “Bobby” E Crimo III.  An active manhunt is underway for his capture.  Crimo is reportedly driving a silver 2010 Honda Fit (pictured below).

Update – A person of interest has been identified in Monday’s deadly mass shooting at a Fourth of July parade outside Chicago, authorities said.

Officials said he was 22-year-old Robert “Bobby” E. Crimo III and is believed to be driving a 2010 silver Honda Fit.

The gunman opened fire with a “high-powered rifle” while standing on a roof just minutes after the parade began in the tony suburb of Highland Park, where six people were left dead and 24 others injured.

The killer “was very military-style, methodical in the way he was crouched and shooting,” an attendee told WGN TV. Investigators found a rifle at the scene that is believed to have been used in the massacre. (read more)

Looks like a typical Antifa type.

Opened fire in a predominately Jewish neighborhood.

Manhunt ongoing.

Check out his abandoned Twitter Before It’s Scrubbed: https://twitter.com/awake_________

Soundcloud Account [LINK]

Manhunt Underway as Suspect Shoots 16 People During July 4th Celebration in Highland Park, Illinois


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 4, 2022 | Sundance

During a July 4th celebration in Highland Park, a suburb north of Chicago, a gunman has opened fire shooting at least 16 people and reported killing 6 people.  A press conference is pending.  The shooting took place during a parade to celebrate the Fourth of July.  {Press Conference Livestream}  The shooter is NOT in custody.

Suspect description: White Male, 18 to 20 years of age, long black hair, small build, white or light blue t-shirt.   A manhunt is underway to capture the suspect. According to local officials the shooter was positioned on a rooftop when he opened fire.

Illinois (via NBC) – […] Sixteen people were shot and at least five people were killed Monday morning in a shooting at Highland Park’s Independence Day parade, officials confirmed, urging residents to continue to “shelter in place” as the gunman remains at large.

The shooting happened just after 10 a.m. in downtown Highland Park, according to reports. A large police presence from the state and neighboring suburban Chicago departments was seen along the parade route.

“Highland Park Police are responding to an active shooter incident that occurred in downtown Highland Park during the 4th of July parade,” the city of Highland Park wrote in a statement. “This is an active incident. All individuals are advised to shelter in place. Law enforcement agencies are searching for the suspect; evidence of a firearm has been recovered. Numerous law enforcement officers are responding and have secured a perimeter around downtown Highland Park. 16 people have been transferred to the hospital; 5 individuals are confirmed deceased.” (more)

Fourth of July Celebration Price Hike


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jul 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The White House celebrated the measly 16-cent discount that Americans enjoyed last Fourth of July. As a reminder of how our leaders have catapulted our economy and opportunity to prosper, the average cost for Independence Day celebrations is now 17% higher than last year.

The White House actually marketed their $0.16 price decline in 2021. “Planning a cookout this year? Ketchup on the news. According to the Farm Bureau, the cost of a 4th of July BBQ is down from last year. It’s a fact you must-hear(d). Hot dog, the Biden economic plan is working. And that’s something we can all relish,” the White House tweeted last July. They actually thought Americans would believe that the slight price change was an indication of the Biden Administration serving the people.

The American Farm Bureau stated that the average Fourth of July traditional BBQ costs around $59.50 for a party of 10 in 2021. This year, the average party will cost consumers $69.68. That is well beneath normal estimates and does not include liquor costs.

Beef alone has risen 36% in the past year ($11.2 for 2 lbs), and even a hamburger bun package will cost an extra $1.93 this holiday. Nearly every item has risen in cost, and the farmers who provide for us are being paid less. “According to the Agriculture Department’s revised Food Dollar Series, farmers currently receive approximately 8% of every food marketing dollar,” AFBF Chief Economist Roger Cryan said. “The farmers’ share of the retail food dollar is as low as 2% to 4% for highly processed foods such as bread and cereal, and can be 35% or more for some fresh products.”

Here are some of the extra costs you can expect to see this Fourth:

Individual Prices, AFBF 2022 Summer Cookout

  • 2 pounds of ground beef, $11.12 (+36%)
  • 2 pounds of boneless, skinless chicken breasts, $8.99 (+33%)
  • 32 ounces of pork & beans, $2.53 (+33%)
  • 3 pounds of center cut pork chops, $15.26 (+31%)
  • 5 quarts of fresh-squeezed lemonade, $4.43 (+22%)
  • 5 pounds of homemade potato salad, $3.27 (+19%)
  • 8 hamburger buns, $1.93 (+16%)
  • Half-gallon of vanilla ice cream, $5.16 (+10%)
  • 13-ounce bag of chocolate chip cookies, $4.31 (+7%)
  • 2 pints of strawberries, $4.44 (-16%)
  • 1 pound of sliced cheese, $3.53 (-13%)
  • 16-ounce bag of potato chips, $4.71 (-4%)