On June 22nd, 2019, President Trump agreed to postpone any deportation enforcement after a call with Speaker Nancy Pelosi:
Two weeks from June 22nd, would be July 8th, 2019.
However, a review of Nancy Pelosi’s congressional calendar reflects Pelosi’s House has been out of session since June 28th, and does not return until July 9th.
This schedule and deadline is exactly why House Democrats are pulling border stunts and urgently pushing media narratives in the headlines. Pelosi had no intention of fixing the legislative issues; instead, she used the time-delay to create maximum political position for herself, democrats in congress and their media allies.
WHITE HOUSE – Yesterday, a single, unelected district judge in Seattle issued an injunction that prevents the government from ensuring the detention of those aliens who cross the border unlawfully until the completion of their immigration court proceedings.
The decision ignores an express statutory prohibition on granting class-wide injunctive relief against enforcement of the immigration laws and also holds unconstitutional a statute passed by bipartisan majorities in Congress during the Clinton administration that specifically prohibits the release of certain immigrants on bond.
The district court’s injunction is at war with the rule of law. The decision only incentivizes smugglers and traffickers, which will lead to the further overwhelming of our immigration system by illegal aliens.
No single district judge has legitimate authority to impose his or her open borders views on the country. We must restore our democracy and ensure Americans have the voice to which they are entitled under our Constitution. (link)
Excellent news from White House manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro as he discusses the re-engagement in U.S. and China trade discussions. Great INFO.
You won’t see this interview highlighted by MSM. As we anticipated the prior 150 page agreement negotiated by USTR Robert Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He, previously dismissed by Beijing after three months of intense discussions, is now the starting point for new talks. This means the Chinese have acquiesced to the prior terms they rebuked.
The seven chapters, each assigned to a specific trade sector, are the baseline for Lighthizer and Liu He to re-engage. Excellent news from the position of the U.S. team.
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The CNBC knucklehead injecting about a Hauwei compromise was quickly corrected by Navarro. The Commerce Department restrictions and process for 90-day licenses to do business with Hauwei remains unchanged.
On May 20th, 2019, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, would be issuing Temporary General License (TGL) permits for U.S. business interests who wish to engage in commercial exchanges with Huawei.
The Commerce Department reviews each request, outlines what products can be exchanged, and restricts the company to a transaction of product approved by the license. Each license lasts 90-days.
“The Temporary General License grants operators time to make other arrangements and the Department space to determine the appropriate long term measures for Americans and foreign telecommunications providers that currently rely on Huawei equipment for critical services,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “In short, this license will allow operations to continue for existing Huawei mobile phone users and rural broadband networks.” (link)
Additionally, with the exception of the transactions explicitly authorized by the Temporary General License, any exports, reexports, or in country transfers of items subject to the Export Administration Regulation (EAR) will continue to require a special license granted after a review by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under a presumption of denial.
Under the new regulations any company wishing to engage in a commercial transaction with Huawei has to apply and gain pre-approval from the U.S. Commerce Department. Hence, the issuance of a 90-day license. Any product or service not approved by the license is not allowed to be exchanged.
This process began on May 20th and still exists today. This process is what President Trump was referencing when he announced the U.S. and China would restart trade negotiations as it related to Huawei. Specifically when the president said: “Ross will evaluate each request”.
Nothing can be purchased from, or sold to, Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd and/or its sixty-eight non-U.S. affiliates, without getting permission from the U.S. commerce department. Nothing in the agreement between President Trump and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping changes that process.
Navarro is now confirming Beijing has accepted the closed chapters of the prior negotiation as a starting point between the Chinese and U.S. teams. The agreements between all parties, prior to the collapse, is now the agreed starting point.
This indicates the hawks in Beijing, those who formerly balked, have now retreated from their antagonistic position toward the agreement negotiated by Liu He.
It is likely they saw growing ramifications and consequences over the past 30+ days. In essence, after getting a taste of what was coming, Beijing saw a cycle of continual collapse as their future; they had no option but to try and stop the downward spiral.
This internal outlook, overlaying their historic zero-sum perspective, would make sense given the latest developments; partly because the reality of an increasingly losing position was their new baseline. A cessation of further damage was their best scenario.
Summary: Trump forced Beijing to see less-loss as the better loss.
However, as noted in the attitude of President Trump, he retains the larger tariff level despite China’s re-engagement. Trump has allowed the restart itself to be the face-saving Xi needed, yet he retains the prior tariff gains. Team Trump yielded nothing back.
Do not take this dynamic lightly. China has never negotiated for, nor accepted, less-lossbefore. Understanding this is new ground for them we can only imagine the anxiety within internal discussions. Vice-Premier Liu He cannot turn to the Beijing Hawks and say: ‘I told you so’. He can only start again and hope the same outcome does not repeat.
Both teams know the prior closed chapters were negotiated in good faith by Liu He, Robert Lightizer and Mnuchin. It wasn’t the U.S. who walked away from prior commitments. Therefore it makes additional sense for Chairman Xi to offer the Ag purchases as a show of good faith; and, in turn, President Trump gives the optics of compromise on high-tech.
Returning to the original point of collapse, the stickler point was/is the enforcement mechanism if China cheats. This is where Lighthizer had built sector-by-sector, product-by-product, escalating and countervailing tariffs into the compliance chapters.
Unlike traditional trade agreements with one enforcement chapter that encompasses all of the sectors within the aggregate agreement, Bob Lighthizer built specific enforcement mechanisms into each sector. Essentially, each product had it’s own compliance requirements unique to the sector of trade.
That multi-layered compliance is where China recoiled because they saw the U.S. as having ultimate decision-making about whether the rules were being followed. However, that construct was/is the unidirectional price Lighthizer was applying due to the history of Chinese duplicity and cheating.
Any U.S. company (or U.S. entity) harmed by Chinese trade practices (ie. ‘cheating‘, ‘theft’, ‘coercion’, etc.) would have a set of enforcement provisions to protect their interests specific to their unique sector inside the agreement. The scale of this approach is rather overwhelming to consider; however, as Lighthizer told congress this is the only way to insure compliance and protect very diverse U.S. trade interests.
You have to write the agreement while predicting the other party will attempt to lie, cheat and steal; and they will do so with the sanctioning of the communist government.
Lost in all of the discussions by western media is the fact that no-one has ever attempted to structure a comprehensive and enforceable trade agreement with China before. What the U.S. team is attempting will be the road-map for all other nations who will likely write similar agreements of their own.
Writing a trade agreement between a free-market (USA) and a controlled-market (China) is where the challenge lies. One of the inherent issues will always be how the free-market system can hold the controlled-market system accountable if they cheat.
Given the controlled-market’s governmental support for the cheaters, the accountability will naturally have to come from outside the system. It remains to be seen if it can be done.
Arguably President Trump has a disposition that he doesn’t see how a deal is possible. However, Trump is willing to allow Lighthizer, who really is brilliant (along with Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary Ross), plenty of space to approach this problem with unique solutions.
As President Trump just said: “The quality of the transaction is far more important to me than speed. I am in no hurry.”
The tariffs will continue until behavior improves.
Many Democrat presidential candidates will be traveling to Iowa for July 4th events as part of their campaign effort. Interestingly, according to the recent updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Iowa has some of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation:
Iowa has three of the top five lowest unemployment regions in the nation:
(BLS DATA) In May, Ames, IA, and Burlington-South Burlington, VT, had the lowest unemployment rates, 1.5 percent each, followed by Midland, TX, 1.7 percent; Iowa City, IA, 1.8 percent; and Dubuque, IA, 1.9 percent.
While Democrats have falsely been saying the economy isn’t working for all Americans, the facts are that blue-collar middle-class Americans have been the largest beneficiaries.
The periods when GDP exceeds potential are typically when workers enjoy the greatest wage gains and members of historically sidelined communities find jobs. In recent years, those periods have not lasted long, a fact that Fed and other officials are wrestling with as they weigh possible interest rate cuts and assess just where the U.S. economy now stands. (link)
Last night President Trump sent a series of tweets that seems to be disconnected from most reporting on the 2020 Census. Originally, after the DOJ lawyers informed litigantsin the case about the census going to print, everyone believed the 2020 census questionnaire would not include the citizenship question. Then last night this:
It is possible the 2020 census printing could begin without the actual page that would carry the citizenship question. No-one seems to know what the actual status is.
Jumping Ju-Ju bones. Wow. The North Korean broadcast of the meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un has now been fully translated to English.
Initially, even without the translation, we could see the optimistic message and a mutual strategy that would align the interests of Chairman Kim and President Trump. However, the translation is even better than anticipated. The message to the North Korean people is not just optimism and propaganda, the message directly and purposefully conveys an incredibly strong message of respect for U.S. President Trump. WATCH:
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Traditional propaganda messaging would convey great power and respect for Dear Leader Kim Jong-Un and a message of moderate diminishment toward the U.S. President. This type of propaganda narrative is also what the U.S. Main Street Media had stated Kim Jong-un would use. But they’re wrong… all of them.
The actual message conveyed to the citizens of North Korea is one of united celebration and magnanimous respect for Chairman Kim and President Trump. The broadcast specifically cites “wisdom”, “respect” and praise for the “incredible courage” of President Donald J Trump. Exactly the opposite message predicted by the DC naysayers.
All over southeast Asia the media reports are optimistic, positive and upbeat with the possibility of a generational crisis finally coming to an end. President Trump is being called a hero throughout Southeast Asia for bringing peace to Korea.
Yes the DPRK broadcast is “propaganda”, but this type of propaganda with a message of optimism and peace that proclaims the dignity and respect of both leaders is the best kind of propaganda. This is not anti-American, this is specifically pro-American.
What an incredible shift in the dynamic.
Watch the cinematography of the video and it’s obvious the DPRK message is strategically positive. The emphasis on Moon Jae-in also indicates a hopefulness of a unified Korea. Both leaders united; both nations at peace. Incredible.
Happiness and optimism for the future of North Korea is the message. The video and accompanying storyline makes it clear how Kim Jong-un is comfortable, joyful and mutually respectful around U.S. President Trump.
The more this message is broadcast the greater likelihood President Trump and Kim Jong-Un will achieve a peace agreement and break free from the captivity of Chinese manipulation.
In essence this is the type of propaganda where Kim Jong-un is intentionally putting pressure on himself by elevating the optimistic expectations of his country. His country will want success, this empowers Kim to break free from Chairman Xi.
In my humble opinion this approach is a coordinated feature (aided by Donal Trump), not a happenstance outcome of fortunate events. President Trump indicated the value of this internal messaging when he delivered the first video of optimism for the people of North Korea to Kim Jong-un in Singapore highlighting what is possible.
Both President Trump and Chairman Kim are creating a scenario where momentum to peace is unstoppable.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in appears to have seen the brilliance of this approach now; and is positioning himself to facilitate not impede. Under this unified Trump-Kim strategy to weaken the illicit influence of Beijing’s dragon masters, the people of North Korea need to regard President Trump as an ally; this strengthens the position of Chairman Kim amid his own people.
With the people of North Korea genuinely supporting Kim, over time the Beijing elements within the Kim government can be isolated and removed. The goal is peace, diminishment of Beijing authoritarian influence/control, and with eventual release – freedom for the entire Korean peninsular.
Well, this will not come as a surprise to CTH readers, but it affirms prior suspicion of Chairman Xi Jinping’s motives and intents in the pre-G20 trip to North Korea. There is also an aspect to this propaganda highlighting that Beijing actually had this narrative written prior to the outcome, I’ll explain below.
As predicted, China’s state media are proclaiming that Chairman Xi Jinping, playing the role of magnanimous panda, is responsible for the success and restart of the discussions between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un of North Korea:
CHINA – […] Ten days before the Kim-Trump meeting, President Xi Jinping made a historic visit to North Korea, with one of the key aims being to show political support and help North Korea and the US to break the deadlock in their negotiations, Zheng said.
Xi also met Trump in Osaka on the sidelines of the G20 Summit on Saturday, when they also discussed the peninsula issue. Xi has encouraged both Kim and Trump to push forward negotiations and reach an agreement eventually.
Zheng said the third Kim-Trump meeting proves that China’s mediation and encouragement are effective, and at least the friendly atmosphere of the region has been rebuilt successfully.
“Without China’s encouragement, Trump might not be so confident to propose such a meeting at the DMZ so soon, since he would not have been sure what Kim was thinking,” according to Zheng. (more)
The article is the typical propaganda from a currently hostile Beijing toward President Trump who they now openly see as an adversary and have dropped the panda mask.
So you might read that first part as boilerplate Beijing propaganda, which it is; however, in the latter part of the state-media presentation the footprints of the dragon plan becomes visible. Read (emphasis mine):
[…] Trump said talks with North Korea would resume, and the US team would be led by US special representative for North Korea Steve Biegun, CNN reported.
This shows that after North Korea expressed anger over US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and demanded the US remove him from the nuclear talks after the unsuccessful Hanoi summit, the Trump administration has made a decision and given a positive response to North Korea, Zheng said.
Hawkish diplomats like Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton are given a smaller role now since Trump has found these senior officials could make negotiations with North Korea very difficult, Diao noted.
“If Trump gives special authorization to Biegun and allows him report to the Oval Office directly, he can minimize the negative impact from hawkish politicians like Pompeo. Fortunately, it seems like Biegun is an acceptable figure for North Korea,” Diao said. (read more)
Obviously Beijing is hoping readers don’t actually watch the video of Trump’s visit to the DMZ; especially the video from the DPRK propaganda piece, where Kim Jong-Un is warmly greeting Secretary Mike Pompeo, and especially where the two, Pompeo and Kim, are smiling and laughing together.
Two points indicated by this article:
#1) The outline of this Beijing script was actually written before the DPRK visit. Obviously they didn’t consider or expect the visible fallacy of the Pompeo interaction with Kim Jong-un. The visible facts don’t fit the Beijing script; and, more importantly….
#2) As we suspected and wrote earlier in the year, it was Beijing’s control agents who were opposed to Secretary Mike Pompeo as an emissary in the talks. China doesn’t want Pompeo in the picture. He is viewed as a risk to their interests.
Expanding on #2, it becomes even more clear that Beijing (Chairman Xi) is controlling all of the officials in/around Kim Jong-un. The Pompeo factor highlights: Yes, THIS IS INDEED a hostage rescue effort; and we are seeing just how severe the scale of control is. [Keep in mind, those reading this are very far ahead of anyone in understanding what this is all about.]
Chairman Xi Jinping not only controls North Korea as a proxy province, but this is even more evidence Xi controls everyone -at the highest levels of DPRK government- in/around Chairman Kim Jong-un. Can you imagine the scale of 24/7 stress this hostage is going through?
Slowly President Trump is changing the dynamic and actually removing the tentacles of Chinese control over North Korea. However, this is a stunningly complex dynamic to try and negotiate through.
Understanding the dynamic of a hostage rescue effort we certainly have respect and appreciation for the success President Trump has been able to achieve so far.
Fox News host Tucker Carlson traveled to Osaka Japan for the G20 meeting between President Trump and China’s Chairman Xi Jinping. After the summit meeting Carlson interviews President Trump and broadcast the interview this evening:
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Additionally, Tucker Carlson traveled with President Trump to South Korea for the DMZ visit with Kim Jong-un.
President Trump has completely reset the pre-existing hostile dynamic that existed between the U.S. and North Korea. By focusing on the root cause of the issue, Beijing China, Trump has been able to reach a position with Kim Jong-un that seemed impossible two years ago.
All over southeast Asia the media reports are optimistic, positive and upbeat with the possibility of a generational crisis finally coming to an end. President Trump is being called a hero bringing peace to Korea.
The North Korean state-run media has broadcast the video below.
I have no idea what the narrator is saying, but it’s obvious the primary message is one of optimism and hope. Yes, it’s propaganda, but propaganda with a message of optimism and peace is the best kind of propaganda.
Watch the cinematography of the video and it’s obvious the DPRK message is positive. The emphasis on Moon Jae-in also indicates a hopefulness of a unified Korea. WATCH:
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Happiness and optimism is the message, and it’s clear Kim Jong-un is comfortable and joyful around U.S. President Trump.
The more this message is broadcast the greater likelihood President Trump will achieve a peace agreement. In essence this is the type of propaganda where Kim Jong-un is putting pressure on himself by elevating the optimistic expectations of his country.
In my humble opinion this approach is a coordinated feature (aided by DJT), not a happenstance. President Trump indicated the value of this messaging when he delivered the first video to Kim Jong-un in Singapore highlighting what is possible.
Both Trump and Kim are creating a scenario where momentum to peace is unstoppable. Moon Jae-in appears to have seen the brilliance of this approach now; and is positioning himself to facilitate not impede. This Trump-Kim strategy weakens the illicit influence of Beijing’s dragon masters and strengthens Kim amid his own people.
Also worth noting in this regional dynamic, the Asian community loves Ivanka Trump and anywhere she goes they report on her with great regard and expressions of affection.
China, Japan, Korea and Asia writ large treat Ivanka Trump as an imperial princess delivering hope with a joyful spirit. They friggin’ love her, and President Trump knows how to leverage that influence.
Today, July 1st, is the first day of the third quarter 2019. As typical some of the earliest economic reporting from June is released. One of the first reports comes from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) as they compile the manufacturing sector.
As noted in the ISM review, manufacturing growth remains strong with an overall index of 51.7 (anything above 50 is growth), and the results are stronger than initially predicted by the financial media (Wall Street).
The manufacturing production index for June is 54.1 versus last month’s 51.3 (May); generally this means manufacturing outputs are growing, order backlogs are being reduced, orders are being fulfilled faster. This is an indication that new production investment is now coming on-line and delivering actual products from orders.
In the past CTH had noted the heavy Main Street investment which began in 2017 would start to come on-line in Q2 2019, it generally takes about two years for a new manufacturing facility to start producing, and then increases in production efficiency follow. The ISM result shows we were pretty close with that forecast.
Within the review there are particular notes for additional interest. First, the June manufacturing employment index is 54.5, very strong; (last month 53.7). In essence manufacturers are hiring at a fast rate. One cause is better weather (seasonal), and the majority cause is filling the jobs from new production facilities coming on-line.
Secondly, and very interestingly, the June price index is 47.9 (deflation) and reflects a very significant drop in manufacturing material prices from May’s 53.2 index. This is exactly the opposite result of what all financial media were claiming would happen based on tariff predictions. The prices of manufacturing materials are lower in June, significantly lower, which will ultimately mean no higher consumer prices.
A key point to note is how lower prices are not driven by excess inventory. The inventory index in June is 49.1 (lower than May’s 50.9). So it’s the actual material cost and production efficiencies driving lower manufacturing prices.
So the question is: “if tariffs are present -even enhanced higher- and not driving manufacturing material prices higher, then what’s lowering that price”?
The answer is likely a combination of two factors:
#1) Global material supply is consistent, but global demand is weak. It’s the U.S. material demand that leads the world. As the U.S. economy is the strongest economy, the in-bound manufacturing supply costs reflect prices lowered because we are the biggest customer (and strongest need).
#2) China has to retain manufacturing position. To retain position Beijing is subsidizing export costs. In essence China is offsetting the tariffs by lowering their prices. Yes, China paying the tariffs – not the U.S. consumer.
When reviewing President Trump’s economic policies in 2015 and 2016, CTH saw the potential for significant Main Street wage growth starting in Q2 2018. The wage result in the second quarter 2018 jumped to 3.4% and has remained in that range for over a year.
At the same time in 2015/2016 CTH saw the potential for significant ‘new’ Main Street manufacturing coming on-line in Q2 2019. We are happy to report all things are on track.
“Against the backdrop of a slower economy and heightened uncertainty on the trade front, the fact that manufacturers are not only hiring but doing so at a faster pace suggests a degree of confidence in the business outlook.”
~ Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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