Posted originally on Apr 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Some believe that Donald Trump is deliberately attempting to cause a sharp downturn in equities to force a flight into treasuries. If so, the Federal Reserve would have more of a reason to slash interest rates—Trump’s longstanding desire. Trump has stated that the markets are undergoing an “operation” of sorts, but I would not underestimate his long-term plan here.
Trump openly states that he wants companies to move manufacturing to the US to avoid tariffs. This will also promote domestic trade as companies will seek to avoid levies. US farmers will be incentivized to sell domestically, which could lower the price of groceries much to the pleasure of the American public.
The idea that a decline in the stock market could actually cause a flight into treasuries sounds counterintuitive on the surface, but when you understand how capital flows and confidence operate globally, it makes perfect sense. Capital moves globally and always seeks the safest place to park. Unexperienced and retail traders tend to panic at larger downturns and sell off.
Everything comes down to CONFIDENCE. A downturn in equities could cause a kneejerk reaction into treasuries because people still trust that the government will make good on their payments. Big institutional money began fleeing the public sector for the private sector years ago. What we have seen since the implementation of Trump’s tariffs is a new demand for treasuries.
The 10-year treasury yield dropped from 4.25% in late March 2025 to 4.01% by April 1, while the two-year fell to 3.68%. Billions have fled into the bond market since these tariffs were announced. JPMorgan, for example, said that there is now a 60% risk of a recession and is shifting toward the bond market.
Lowering treasury rates will make homes more affordable by decreasing mortgage rates. Individual nations were fleeing US treasuries, creating a massive risk for an eventual default. Suddenly, at least temporarily, the stock market no longer seems like a safe place to park money. The Trump Administration first showed the world that it was cutting spending and attempting to reduce the deficit. A downturn in rallies DOES NOT guarantee a rally in the bond market, but we are witnessing a short-term flow into treasuries. However, the computer has warned that 2028 will mark a major turning point in confidence where any remaining confidence in government vanishes. For now, we may enjoy a temporary decline in treasury yields due to these tariffs.
Posted originally on Apr 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
PART II
QUESTION: Is he breaking the London metals dealers’ hold to suppress the gold price?
ANSWER: I am tired hearing the same constant bullshit about gold is suppress intentionally by dealers and that is why it is not $10,000. I have traded against these people for years. Here is a clip from the Forecast with Barclay, who used to work for me years ago, talking about how he checked me out before taking the job with Goldman Sachs.
Every manipulation that these dealers ever pull off was to the upside – not to suppress gold. They sell 10x more when people think gold is rising, not declining. This BS claim was explained that they were suppressing gold to help the government keep inflation in check. This is total BS!!!!!
Back in the 1970s when I was one of the largest market-makers in gold, I was buying the scrap gold from stores in the country that people were selling to back then and refining it at Engelhard into 100-ounce bars for delivery into COMEX. PhiBro was who you would call to sell to Engelhard, locking in the prices. PhiBro made so much money that they bought Solomon Brothers, the bond house on Wall Street, and took the manipulation tactics to Wall Street, and then that blew up. That is when Warren Buffett stepped in to save the company, and that is how he got pulled into silver manipulation scams of the day.
Nelson was one of my customers. In the early days, we bought silver certificates and redeemed them at the Treasury for 1,000-ounce bars. They generally had a permanent marker applied, often with two numbers, 102.6 and 120. The first implied it was 102.3 oz., and the second may have been the number of silver certificates it represented. Nelson was buying them when silver was $1.29. The U.S. Treasury primarily used 1,000-troy-ounce silver bars for the redemption of silver certificates. These bars were standardized for commercial and governmental use, aligning with industry practices for efficient storage and handling.
Historical Context: During the redemption period (late 1800s–1968), the Treasury managed large silver stockpiles, often stored in bulk. The 1,000-ounce size was practical for large-scale transactions and storage.
Commercial Standards: The 1,000-troy-ounce bar was (and remains) a common “good delivery” standard in precious metals markets, ensuring consistency in domestic and international trade.
Legislation and Practices: Acts like the Pittman Act (1918) and the Silver Purchase Act (1934) involved melting silver coins or purchasing bullion, likely using standardized bar sizes. The Treasury’s silver reserves, including those backing certificates, were held in forms compatible with industrial and monetary needs.
Thus, 1,000-troy-ounce bars were almost certainly the standard, though smaller denominations (e.g., coins) were also available for individual redemptions.
A funny story, I had $1 million credit line by the time I was 21 with the bank. It was funny because you did not have to deal with age or things like that. I had a business with employees and inventory, as well as sales. They granted you credit based on those things. They would assume I was older and just say, “You look good for your age.” I would just reply: “Thank you.”
I went to my local bank and wanted to borrow $2 million to buy silver. I told them I had a client, Nelson, who was going to take silver up dramatically. I may have even said $50 – I don’t recall. I told the bank they could hold the silver, which I thought made sense. I was turned down, and my banker called me in and explained that I should have just said it was for inventory, and I would have been approved. It was illegal for them to lend for speculation. For years, he told people that if he had bought silver himself, he could have retired by 1980.
By February 1979, Hunt’s name was being thrown around all over the place, and they were saying silver was going to $100. That lured people in to buy, and they took silver up to test the $50 between February 1979 and January 1980. All the manipulations I have witnessed in the metals have been to lure people to buy, not sell, and suppress the prices. That is just stupid. Do they not make money by suppressing silver or gold to help the government? Come on.
Nelson was also an avid ancient coin collector. Sotheby’s sold his collection, and it remains a significant sale often referred to. His collection ranked up there with J.P. Morgan and King Faruk.
I have said countless times, gold rises NOT with inflation, but with geopolitical issues. Here was the National Debt Q2 1980 at $877.614bn. As of Q2 2024, it stood at $36,218bn. The debt has risen 40.29% since 1980. Gold hit $875 on January 21, 1980, in the cash market. If gold rose because of inflation or the debt level, then it should be $35,260 per ounce. The gold dealer could buy all of Wall Street with that price.
These people who make up these excuses are unbelievable. Gold pays no interest, which is why they lease it out. Otherwise, it is a dead asset that brings in no income. It is a hedge against the government in times of uncertainty—that’s it. It is not a hedge against inflation or the size of the debt. That has been a great sales pitch, but that is it.
Posted originally on Apr 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, I have now heard it all. When I asked why the stock market crashed, I was not told it was tariffs. I was told that “Armstrong told his clients there would be a Panic at the end of March to the first week of April. All the huge wealth funds are Armstrong’s clients.” I guess they flipped a coin. Heads, Trump did it; tails, Armstrong did it. I don’t think you will ever escape blame.
We need another WEC, ASAP.
Joe
REPLY: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened Socrates so the entire world can see it. BTW, while Tucker is blocked in China, we are not. Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion.
This is the ONLY fully functioning AI computer with over a 40-year track record. I have often heard that they may not do what we forecast, but they certainly do not want to be on the opposite side. We warned that the AI stocks had peaked. They just got overdone at the start of this year. The computer projected this crash, for as Maggia once said, It’s Just Time.
Many who hate my guts still subscribe to Socrates to hate the next forecast. I subscribe to the NYT and the Washington Post, NOT because I believe them, but because I want to know the next fake news they are reporting.
Just because some major fund takes Socrates does not guarantee they follow what it says!
Posted originally on Apr 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
England has fallen. Politicians permitted open borders and permanently altered society. England is no longer a Christian nation. They have abandoned their core traditions and beliefs for outsiders who vote for liberal policies. The UK is now debating implementing new sentencing guidelines to establish a two-tiered justice system that will ensure white, straight, Christian men receive the harshest sentences.
Under new guidelines, judges and magistrates will obtain pre-sentence reports for offenders from minority groups. They will be asked to consider an offender’s religion, race, and sexuality to ensure their treatment is favorable.
Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is reviewing the blatantly biased policy. “The guideline states that a pre-sentence report will normally be considered necessary for these cohorts. A pre-sentence report can be instrumental in assisting courts in the determination of their sentence. But the access to one should not be determined by an offender’s ethnicity, culture or religion,” she stated. “As someone who is from an ethnic minority background myself, I do not stand for differential treatment before the law like this.” You know the situation is dire when even the liberals are questioning its validity.
Sarah Jones, the industry minister, declared that England cannot have a two-tiered justice system. “We disagree with this decision. I think it’s really important in the country that people are trusting in the justice system that we have and that means you can’t have a two-tier system, it has to be fair, it has to be equal to everybody and so we have asked them to think again about this guidance,” Jones stated.
The Labour Party announced it would increase migrant spending by 30% this year. The majority of mayors in major cities are Muslim, which is not a negative but a sign of how society has changed. Muhammad has been the most popular baby boy name in the UK in recent years. The UK has lost its identity and is no longer a Christian nation. Pew Research Center believes that Muslim women will have more children than Christian women by 2035, and Islam could become the most followed religion in the world. Build Back Better nations are becoming unrecognizable as the very essence of their cultures and traditions is challenged.
I lived in London for years and fell in love with the city, but it has drastically changed, and I would not want to return as a permanent resident. Politicians are willing to change the rule of law to punish their own citizens. Britain is voting itself into extinction as repopulation theory destroys their culture and the nation they once knew.
Posted originally on Mar 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: We all know that you are friends with Anna Paulina Luna and that you endorsed her. That suggests she must be the real deal since I do not recall you endorsing anyone, even Trump. So what’s up? She dropped a bombshell on FOX that NBC has a tape proving Oswald could not have been the shooter.
Care to chime in?
PJ
ANSWER: I like to meet people face to face, not just shake hands at a cocktail party. In law, one of the first things they teach you is never to joke in court because when the transcript comes out, all that is recorded are the words: “Ya, and I killed JFK, too.” You can say that being sarcastic, but reading just the words, it looks like you confessed. I need to look into someone’s eyes, for they never lie. It is not just words; it is also how those words are said. We are in this stupid war supporting Ukrainian Neo-Nazis all because the CIA protected them because they were killing Russians, Jews, and Polish, but at least they were killing Russians so that made it all OK.
Anna has a fire in her belly. I said that to her face. She is honest and passionate. That is why Trump handed her this commission. She was not selected for some political payback BS. She is determined to get to the truth. I can vouch for that.
She will follow the evidence. Yet, she truly cares about the country and wants to keep us out of Europe’s World War III desires. She knows my advice: get out of NATO ASAP. NATO is claiming it can defeat Russia without the USA.
Because of this, the Democrats are trying to raise a war chest to defeat her and keep the corrupt Deep State status quo. Many are now realizing she is worth supporting. They just oppose Trump, yet have no actual alternative to offer, but keep the corruption in place, protecting the Deep State. As I have said, I also knew Arlan Spector, the Democratic Senator who came up with the magic bullet theory to cover up the JFK shooting. He lived a few doors from me on the beach.
The Democrats are trapped by their own stupidity, still pushing transgender and WOKE. Even the pardons with an autopen are unbelievable. Biden couldn’t have taken the time to sign these pardons personally? Even Bill Maher has called these Democrats brats.
The Progressive Europeans are doing the same as the Democrats – shutting down free speech when it criticizes their politics. At least Italy’s Meloni cautions EU on US trade war, won’t send troops to Ukraine. She was the ONLY European leader to attend Trump’s Inauguration. At least the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, a socialist, has finally agreed with her right-wing counterparts that mass migration into Europe is a significant threat to the continent’s way of life.
At what point does the country come before loyalty to your political party?
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