Capital Flow Analysis


Posted originally on Nov 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Capital_Flow_Analysis

Next week, those attending the World Economic Conference can pull this report from your portal. This is a special report issued on the request of so many institutional clients to explain how I arrived at capital flows analysis back in the 1980s and its application today, as some central banks have adopted this methodology in light of the failure of Keynesian Economics. This is the first time I have outlined this form of analysis in a specialized report. This also deals with the velocity of money and the back-drop behind booms and busts.

This report will be available to non-attendees and non-virtual Attendees for $300 after the conference.

Capital_Flow_Analysis Index

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US GDP Rose 2.8% in Q3


Posted originally on Oct 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

GDP 3

According to data provided by the Commerce Department, the US economy grew 2.8% during Q3, beneath expectations of a 3.1% increase. GDP has slowed from the 3% posting during Q2.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 3.7% last quarter, marking the strongest performance since Q1 of 2023. The US federal government’s spending is factored into growth, albeit another reason why these data points never provide a true indicator of economic growth in the long term. The government managed to increase spending by an astounding 9.7% — 14.9% of which was spent on defense.

Personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.5%, providing a bit of good news for Fed who looks and causing optimism about a rate drop during the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Core PCE remained at 2.2%.

Consumer spending, one-third of US GDP, has risen, but Americans are spending more on less. The government is not releasing the true figures or painting an accurate picture of the economy. Sure, consumer spending is up, but personal savings fell to 4.8% from 5.2%. Americans are spending more, but they are also falling into debt.

The US remains the safe haven for international capital. We saw a 5.87% increase in capital flows to the US on a monthly basis based on the Global Market Watch, and Socrates predicts it will continue to increase.

The Biased Media Coverage of Harris v Trump


Posted originally on Oct 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

FP Harris no show

The majority of Americans are ready for the election to be over. The constant bombardment of political ads, emails, and texts has been overwhelming. The media has been covering Trump and Harris 24/7 through an extremely biased lens.

The Media Research Center conducted a study that found the evening news coverage of the presidential race has been the most one-sided display of fake journalism in history. Looking back to media coverage from July when Joe Biden was ousted from the race, ABC, CBS, and NBC have provided Kamala Harris with 78% positive coverage. In comparison, these agencies have only provided 15% negative or neutral coverage of Donald Trump.

Babylon BeeTrump_Indicted_For_Inciting_Assassination_Attempt

The study followed 660 stories and noticed that the Big Three networks painted Kamala Harris as a hero in July. After the first Trump vs Harris debate in September, the Big Three revised its propaganda to focus on Donald Trump. Instead of painting Harris as an American hero, the narrative became a constant bombardment of demonizing the Republican nominee who was actually nominated.

Trump Criminal

The demonization of Trump has been stronger than during the 2016 US Presidential Election when the Big Three used 91% of airtime to provide negative air time for Trump as they also painted Hillary Clinton in a negative light 79% of the time. Even during the 2020 race, these media outlets only provided Joe Biden 66% positive coverage compared to 92% coverage on Trump.

The study also found that one-third of Trump’s airtime has covered his personal controversies, with the January 6 incident receiving the most airtime followed by Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was unfair. Harris only faced 5 minutes and 22 seconds of negative personal criticisms.

Trump Dictator Kagan Nuland Washington Post
Media

Immigration, the economy, and abortion are the three main issues that the media has covered. There is no denying that Harris is unprepared and has no solution to these crises. In terms of coverage on policies, the playing field is a bit more even with Trump receiving 63% negative coverage and Kamala 55%. Yet, the media rarely covers the issues Americans face, and this race has been turned into an American idol popularity contest.

Most concerning, 90% of the positive coverage Kamala Harris received simply celebrated her without mentioning her policies or past achievements. The media has pushed the “woman of color” narrative as if America needs a DEI hire to solve its issues.

Trump Flees NYC

If Trump rightfully wins, the mainstream media will have a meltdown. The study only covered three networks but 99% of them are abiding by the same mockingbird media narrative that Trump is Hitler reincarnated. He will continue to be persecuted as long as he is in the public light or simply alive.

President Trump Attends Final Tucker Carlson Live Event in Arizona – 10:00pm EDT Livestream


Posted originally on the CTH on October 31, 2024 | Sundance 

Tonight, President Donald Trump is traveling to Arizona to attend the final Tucker Carlson Live event. Just five days before the election, Tucker Carlson will host a live interview of President Trump in front of the American people. All profits from this event will be donated to relief efforts for those affected by Hurricanes Milton and Helene.  President Trump is anticipated to arrive around 10:00pm EDT.  Livestream Links Below.

RSBN YouTube Livestream – RSBN Rumble Livestream – Donald Trump Campaign Livestream

Steve Bannon Interviews Jeff Clark About Top Concerns for Election Week and Beyond


Posted originally on the CTH on October 31, 2024

Having recently been released from federal prison, Steve Bannon is back doing his podcast on Rumble.  In this segment, Mr Bannon interviews attorney Jeff Clark about expectation for the election and litigation thereafter. {Direct Rumble Link Here}

Jeff Clark notes the importance of winning the down ballot races, particularly the House races, to support the election outcome. WATCH:

President Trump MAGA Rally – Henderson, Nevada – 6:30pm EDT Livestream


Posted originally on the CTH on October 31, 2024 | Sundance

Departing New Mexico, President Donald Trump heads to a rally in Henderson, Nevada.  President Trump is anticipated to speak at 6:30 pm EDT, with pre-rally speakers ongoing.  Livestream Links Below

RSBN YouTube Livestream – RSBN Rumble Livestream – Trump Campaign Rumble Livestream

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Joe Rogan Interviews JD Vance


Posted originally on the CTH on October 31, 2024 | Sundance

Joe Rogan interviews Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance for over 3 hours.  The full interview below:

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Harris Campaign Surrogate/Knucklehead Mark Cuban Says Women Supporting Trump are Weak, Unintelligent and Intimidated – Women Supporting President Trump Hit Back


Posted originally on the CTH on October 31, 2024 | Sundance

Despite Donald Trump’s campaign managers in 2016 and 2024 being women, and despite many of the top executives in the Trump organization being women, and despite most of the spokespeople for President Trump being women, Kamala Harris campaign surrogate Mark Cuban said yesterday, “you never see him around strong, intelligent women. Ever. It’s just that simple. They’re intimidating to him. He doesn’t like to be challenged by them.”

This set off a firestorm of pushback against the insufferable sexist Mark Cuban, a billionaire who spews hatred and vitriolic nonsense on an almost daily basis.  “More of the same condescending rhetoric from Harris allies,” said Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa. “This strong, intelligent woman voted for Donald J. Trump — and I’ve been proud to be on the road across this great country with @TeamTrump!”

“Trying to think of a response to sissy man @mcuban but I’m too dumb and weak to do so,” quipped conservative columnist Julie Kelly. “Just when you think the Kamala camp can’t possibly alienate and divide people any more than they already have, now they attack women who support Trump. Nice job, Mark,” added Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump. Wyoming congressional representative Harriet Hageman had this video response:

https://twitter.com/CatalinaLauf/status/1852084068927545524

President Trump MAGA Rally – Albuquerque, New Mexico – 2:00pm EDT Livestream


Posted originally on the CTH on October 31, 2024 | Sundance 

Three big Trump audience events today in New Mexico (2pm), Nevada (6:30pm) and Arizona (10pm w/ Tucker Carlson).

Putting more states in play and solidifying others, today, President Donald Trump begins by heading to New Mexico to hold a rally in Albuquerque.  The anticipated start time for President Trump is 2:00pm EDT with Livestream Links Below

RSBN YouTube Livestream – RSBN Rumble Livestream – Trump Campaign Rumble Livestream

The People’s President

What to Look For – Ballot vs Votes Iteration 4.0


Posted originally on the CTH on October 31, 2024 | Sundance 

It is not my intention to provide black pills. However, we discuss events through the prism of what exists, what we can see and track, rather than what we pretend might be in place.  Thus, today CTH fires a signal flare drawing attention away from precinct voting polling places, and toward tabulation centers.

There is some alarming evidence beginning to surface pointing toward a shift in the USA election process, specifically the fundamentally changed process that now exists behind absentee balloting.

The events in California for the 2018 midterm election appeared to be the original BETA test of mass mail-in ballot collection.  Every person in the state mailed a ballot for completion in the 2018 election cycle.  The outcome was evident for two weeks after election day when ballots continuing to arrive changed the vote outcome.

The 2020 general election then saw, thanks to COVID-19, a nationwide rollout of the BETA test: balloting 2.0.  Millions of households receiving ballots from state election officials, so the socially distant electorate did not need to assemble and vote on election day.  The process created a widespread opportunity for fraud.

In the 2022 midterm election, this absentee balloting system was still in place; affirmed into a new structural process within each state.  An awakening electorate pondered the absence of the predicted “red wave” and recognized there was a distinct difference between voters and ballots.  In general, the republicans were still focused on voters, but the democrats were focused on ballot submission processes.  2022 was essentially the third iteration from the originating California BETA test: balloting 3.0.

After 2022, playing catchup, nationwide attention shifted away from votes and election day, and people started talking about the importance of ballot distribution, collection and submission.  This has been the messaging system going into election day 2024.  However, there are strong, evidence-based reasons to believe ‘Balloting 4.0’ is something else entirely.  Election integrity officials could very well be focusing their efforts on polling and balloting processes that have moved far beyond where they were even just two short years ago.

In 2024’s Balloting 4.0, the “Tabulation Centers” are now far more important than Polling Precincts, yet we still see the majority of election integrity and validation effort, mostly by republicans, focusing on polling precincts.   Let me explain what Balloting 4.0 actually looks like.

Those who created fraud within absentee ballots as a tool to change election outcomes, have dropped the pretense of “registered voters.”   Registered, authorized and eligible voters are no longer an aspect of ballot fraud in this 2024 iteration.  As an outcome, voter rolls are no longer appear to be part of the equation, and the correct or incorrect status of voter rolls is a moot point.

There are very strong indications that Balloting 4.0, the fourth iteration of a fraudulent process to control election outcomes, has now moved well beyond the concern with registered voters and voting rolls.  Balloting 4.0 is now about ballot submission REGARDLESS of registered status.

In order to receive a mail-in or absentee ballot from a state election office, in most cases the person making the request would need to be a registered voter.  Some form of eligibility filter would be required (varies by state) to gain a ballot.  Additionally, in many states’ ballots are sent out in mass mail format based on election rolls.  This has been identified as an issue, because again the voter rolls are not up to date or accurate; ergo, multiple ballots sent out to invalid names and/or addresses.  This problem still exists, but Balloting 4.0 has moved one step farther.

What happens when it is not the state or county sending the ballot or approving the request. If the state or county is doing it, voter rolls are still part of the equation.  However, what happens if ballots are printed locally, distributed and completed with names addresses and customary identification material, and then returned to the county recorders’ office regardless of and irrespective of voter registration.

Balloting 4.0 appears to be a system where ballots can be generated outside govt, by any party in the private sector.  What we would call, “localized ballot printing.”

In this instance, the distribution of the ballots can be made to people regardless of their registered voter status.  In Balloting 4.0 the completion of the ballots has nothing to do with voter rolls or pre-filtered voter authenticity.  Balloting 4.0 is simply the mass printing of paper ballots that can be scanned at tabulation centers just like any other ballot.

In the Balloting 4.0 process, the eligibility status of the person completing the ballot becomes irrelevant.  A name is printed or written, address, identification particulars recorded on the ballot, and then the private-sector-printed ballot is then submitted en mass into a population of other ballots that come from state and county government systems.

Locally printed ballots can be mailed, put in drop boxes, dropped off at election offices, or dropped off by entities who “assist” in ballot submission, just like every other ballot.

If thousands of locally printed, perhaps fraudulent ballots, arrive at a recorders’ office what is to stop them from being bulk mixed into the population of ballots from registered voters.  Yes, there are some formal filtration processes that are expected to be utilized to ensure all ballots received are from registered voters.  However, if the receiving official or tabulation worker is motivated by ideology to participate (or willfully ignore) the potential issue, then all the fraudulent ballots just disburse into a population of authentic ballots.

While some very diligent election supervisors, workers and election officials take precautions to stop such localized (ie fraudulent and non-registered) ballot submissions, unfortunately those officials and workers do not work in/around urban voting centers like Atlanta, Austin, Philadelphia, Pittsburg, Milwaukee, Detroit etc.  You can see the issue.

Pushing the issue and question up the chain as an outcome of boots on the ground research, I have yet to hear a response from any election official or career election integrity professional who has an answer for this problem.  This concerns me because we are clearly seeing the tell-tale signs of localized ballot printing starting to surface.

We are seeing reports of multiple state, county and municipal tabulation centers who are having trouble scanning a significant percentage the population of the ballots they are receiving.  Significant enough to change an election outcome.  I would strongly urge readers to pay close attention to reports of some ballots “not scanning” correctly or having formatting issues when compared to the overall population of ballots.

If this is an accurate assessment of things, then what this video shows is exactly what we would expect.  WATCH:

https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1851308958801121705

This is NOT an issue that encompasses double scanning of ballots.  This is an issue of the authenticity of the ballots themselves.  The authenticity of the ballot stems from the authorized authenticity of the voter, and voter identification is protected by a myriad of laws, rules and regulations making that part of the system check almost impossible after the ballot is scanned, accepted and/or adjudicated.

I suspect “Balloting iteration 4.0,” the system in place for 2024, is no longer a ballot issue connected to registered voters and voter rolls.  I suspect ballot fraud in 2024 is now directly and simply the raw generation of physical ballots that have no connection whatsoever to registration processes.

Remember, because the way we value voting rights as a fundamental right for Americans, in every case of ballot review the election system comes from a predisposition that every arriving ballot is valid and authentic.  Issues of doubt are weighted heavily in favor of the submission.  It is rare to have a voting ballot disqualified by a system designed to protect voting ballots.  Those who intentionally support fraud, count on this predisposition of validity [See Marc Elias].

If this perspective is accurate, and there’s no reason to think it is not, then election integrity focus on polling places is wasted energy.  The real venues that should be getting the majority of attention are ballot tabulation centers.  That is where incoming ballots need to be authenticated before they enter any scanning system to record the vote.

Once the ballot is scanned and tabulated, it’s over.  There will never be a process to reverse or remove a legally recorded vote, even if that ballot is fraudulent.