Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Consumer sentiment remained elevated for the second consecutive month but remains worse than in December 2024, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Sentiment rose 1.6% in July from June, reaching a reading of 61.7 from 60.7. However, overall sentiment has been 17% beneath December’s reading, although it rebounded from April’s low when the market experienced a sharp downturn due to tariff fears.
“Although recent trends show sentiment moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in the report. “Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.”
Inflationary fears declined for the second consecutive month as well, dropping from 5% in June to 4.5% in July after peaking at 6.6% in May, again, as a result of tariff uncertainty. Consumers believe inflation will wane in the long run for the third consecutive month, with the figure declining from 4% in June to 3.4% in July, which marks the lowest reading in 2025.
The Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Conference Board, rose 2 points to 97.2 in July, and June’s figure was revised to 95.2. The short-term outlook on the Expectations Index rose 4.5 points to 74.4, yet has been below the recession threshold of 80 since February. Business and labor market conditions, as measured by the Present Situation Index, fell 1.5 points to 131.5.
Yet, the Kansas City Fed noted that consumer sentiment is no longer an accurate reading for consumer spending. “Recent data suggest consumer sentiment has been declining for the past several months, signaling a potential slowdown in spending. However, most measures of actual spending, such as core retail sales and PCE, have remained relatively stable. This discrepancy raises the question of how useful consumer attitudes are in predicting actual spending,” the Fed questioned, later concluding, “Consistent with evidence from the prior 30 years, the near-term outlook for spending growth looks similar regardless of whether we account for the recent weakening in consumer sentiment.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also stated “the link between sentiment data and consumer spending has been weak. It’s not been a strong link at all…it wouldn’t be the case that we’re looking at [consumer sentiment] and just completely dismissing it. But it’s another reason to wait and see.”
Consumers are continually pessimistic, albeit less so, as prices remain elevated. We saw a sharp downturn in consumer sentiment with the peak in inflation during 2022. However, regardless of how one feels about the economy, consumers are forced to spend more on less. The FOMC will no longer use consumer sentiment as a strong gauge for future spending or GDP calculations since the correlation remains weak.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
US employers have reduced their workforce more in the first seven months of 2025 than in all of 2024. The DOGE cuts to the public sector were the primary driver of layoffs; however, there has been a notable drop in retail and technology positions in the private sector.
July alone saw 62,000 jobs reduced from the workforce, a 30% increase from June and 140% from July 2024. Over 806,000 positions were removed from January to July, surpassing the 761,358 job cuts in all of 2024.
Public sector positions in government saw the largest reduction at 292,294 positions. The current administration implemented the largest public sector reduction in modern US history by offering over 2 million government employees a buyout. Around 65,000 people accepted the buyout offer within the first two weeks alone. Additionally, DOGE halted grant funding to various NGOs and non-profits, leading to 17,826 fires, which amounts to a 413% annual reduction. None of these positions contributed to the US GDP.
The private sector shed 33,000 positions in June 2025, marking the first contraction in the private sector in nearly two years. For 2025 overall, the sectors facing the steepest layoffs are technology (-89,251) and retail (-80,487).
A few major tech companies implemented large layoffs this year such as Intel (-21,000), Microsoft (-15,000), PayPal (-2,500), and HP (-2,000). The advancement of Artificial Intelligence has led to a drastic reduction in workers in the technology sector, with some reports believing that AI is replacing around 491 tech jobs per day. We’ve seen a 36% decline in tech jobs this year compared to last as technology advances. Another issue has been outsourcing positions to places like India. The US outsourced 300,000 tech-based jobs overall to India as offshoring trends continue. Not only is labor cheaper, but India produces over 1.5 million engineering graduates annually. Visa restrictions have less of an impact as remote work is commonplace.
Retail experienced the second-largest decline in private sector roles with a 249% annual decline. Brick and mortar stores are deteriorating as another casualty of creative destruction as consumers prefer to spend online. Various articles are blaming tariffs and price increases for the drop in retail positions, but consumers are simply spending less. Around 20,000 retail positions were lost to AI automation, especially for basic roles and inventory management. American consumers have never rebounded from the increased cost of living. Credit card delinquencies and bankruptcies continue to reach new highs, and every survey indicates that households are spending more on less and focusing their resources on the basics.
Technology and retail are sensitive to advancements in AI. Offshoring has drastically cut competitiveness for American workers in tech. There is an offshoring corporate tax penalty of 28% but it is safe to assume that this figure will rise. As for AI, the government hasn’t found a way to tax robotic systems, but rest assured they will find a way.
FED Chairman Jerome Powell announced today the FED Board of Governors is keeping the interest rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Central Bank of the United States is trying to create an unsustainable debt spiral.
The goal of the FED (Central Bank) is to create a debt spiral that leads to a crisis. This is the way the Central Bank controls the activity of the smaller banks. This is the way the Central Bank keeps control over the people in America. WATCH:
Don’t pretend. Stop being a battered victim to an abusive relationship with government.
President Trump is pumping money into the USA economy through economic growth, tariff revenue, federal govt downsizing, expanded private sector employment and wage growth.
The Central Bankers are trying to drain money from the USA economy through monetary policy and control over the behavior of the smaller regional banks and credit unions.
♦ FED. The Central Bank controls interest rates.
♦ FED. The Central Bank (FED) does not control inflation.
♦ BIG BANKS. The credit creation by institutional banks, the creation of money, does create inflation.
♦ BIG BANKS. Money created by institutional banks does not come from the FED.
♦ BIG BANKS. Money created by institutional banks, via credit creation for asset purchases, creates inflation.
♦ BIG BANKS. Money created by institutional banks via credit creation for consumer spending (loans and credit cards), creates inflation.
♦ TRUMP. Money created by regional banks via credit creation for Main Street development, expands GDP, creates revenue and does not create inflation. Additionally, money created by tariff incomes and money delivered by foreign entities to the U.S. treasury for tariff offset purchases, do not create inflation.
THE BATTLE
The FED, representing the USA Central Bank and the interests of the BIG BANKS, are trying to create a massive debt spiral by keeping the interest rates high and making service on the debt unsustainable.
President Trump, representing Main Street USA, is fighting against the interests of the BIG BANKS, and trying to create revenue to avoid the debt spiral the FED is trying to create.
That’s the non-pretending reality of the situation.
Why does the FED (Central Bank) want to create a debt spiral? Because they want control over the economic activity, which includes the destruction of the smaller regional banks and credit unions who are funding the Main Street economy.
The Cental Bank want’s full control.
What the U.S. Marshalls are to the Judicial Branch; the FBI is to the DC system, and the CIA are to the bankers.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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