Lying Biden


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Biden has been lying to the public since he entered his political career decades ago. Yet, he allegedly received more votes than any US president in history. Trust no one.

The Fed & The Collapse of Socialism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Been following Martin since 2008 (Gold ride) – he is the only one who has been right AU and AG top 2011.
****Important question for Martin, please
How can the fed raise rates with governments owing so much debt please ???? what are the consequences of debt restructured? 100 year treasury real estate
Thanks you so much for sharing all your insights

JT

ANSWER: The Federal Reserve is independent. Despite all the nonsense that these pretend analysts attribute everything to the actions of the Fed, if they really knew their history, they would realize that the Fed has often been at war with the White House. You cannot be an objective analyst when you predetermine a conclusion based upon a theory you choose to believe. This is the sad state of analysis these days. People start with the conclusion and then cherry-pick the facts to support what they think should be the outcome. This is what has plagued gold analysis, but the very same process has doomed climate change analysis and the destruction of the world economy.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the Quantity Theory of Money, these analysts take the position of politicians and exonerate themselves of all responsibility for their reckless fiscal spending. They endlessly try to bribe the people to vote for them. I have stated many times, pre-1971, when it was illegal to borrow against an E-Bond, for example, the theory was printing money increased the supply and was inflationary. Thus, borrowing did not increase the money supply and was not inflationary. But when you can post T-Bills as collateral and trade the markets, that theory is no longer valid, so debt is now simply money that pays interest the way it began in 1861. We seem to always return to the starting place, like the game of Monopoly where you must pass Go every trip around the board.

Socialism is the worst form of government; just look at the Democrats. They do not know how to run for office without promising free something or other. It is never about the fate of the world, the nation, or our families. They are promoting war because they assume that the people will not change the government in the middle of a war. They have no problem watching our people die.

The Fed has ZERO control over fiscal spending. Nevertheless, the Fed has been itself brainwashed, and because everyone blames them for inflation, they will be compelled to raise rates or suffer the calls for their overthrow. The increased cost in the deficit will never be blamed on them — only the inflation rate. This is why the central banks have ZERO control over the economy anymore. Soon, people will wake up and realize that this statement is true. When they do, we will get a 1987-style panic.

Here is a chart of the dollar index. The dollar had already begun its decline when they stood up at the Plaza Accord, announcing they wanted the dollar down by 40%. As the dollar began to fall rapidly, other member nations complained. In February 1987, they gathered together to announce that the dollar had fallen too far and enough was enough. When the dollar continued lower, the then G7 lost all credibility, and the markets suddenly realized they were not in control.

This is what we will see once again. This type of inflation was caused by the COVID lockdowns. China may really have shut down Shanghai to push inflation even higher in the West, seeking regime change in Washington, hoping the inflation will lead to a political blood-bath for the Democrats to get the world back to some normalcy. When inflation is set in motion because of a shortage, like crop failures, raising interest rates will not suddenly make it rain.

The Fed will act out its role because it has no other choice. Its rate hike this week is only playing catch-up with the market. Rates are rising because they are supposed to reflect the inflation rates plus a profit. That’s without the Fed trying to manage the economy. Just look at the rates and ignore the pundits. You will see that the Fed is chasing the market, it is not driving the market. Hence, the Fed is being compelled to raise rates not by its own desire to prevent inflation, but to keep pace with the markets themselves.

The idiots will blame the Fed as inflation rises and blame them for not acting. There is no saving grace for the Fed. The system is collapsing and this is in fact what gives Klaus Schwab power, for they know in Europe that they can no longer borrow money to fund socialism. The answer is to default on all debt and to hide that, they need to make it sound like they are doing this for you — who they care so much about.

Hence, this default will be disguised as relieving you of all your debt when it is the governments who are defaulting, and unable to raise interest rates in Europe. This is also the backdrop to the Repo Crisis and why US banks withdrew from making markets because they did not want to take European debt as collateral, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in.

Pelosi’s delegation went to Ukraine and said the US does not want peace and it will not accept the status quo. They want total victory against Russia and they have UNCONSTITUTIONALLY declared war on Russia and they are pretending they can act unilaterally and as long as the Ukrainian people are on the ground and not American troops, then it is not formally a war that only the people can declare under the constitution. This is all a cover for the Great Default because Keynesian Economics has completely failed. The central banks CAN NOT stop this inflation nor do they control the fiscal spending. Governments are now spending whatever they want because they know the Great Default is coming. This is all part of the Great Reset pushed as the solution by the World Economic Forum.

As we move head-first into 2032, we are looking at the total collapse of not just socialism because of the inability of European governments to continue to borrow as the Fed raises rates, and they cannot, but we are also staring into the eyes of the collapse of Republican forms of government on a global scale.

The REAL Insurrection – The Office of The President, The Executive Branch, Publicly Declared Support For the Political Targeting of the Judicial Branch


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 5, 2022 | Sundance

You might remember that ancient time in history when American civics discussions involved the separation of powers.  Apparently, those days are long gone in the rubble of what was once considered a constitutional republic.  Forget Joe Biden targeting the President of Russia for assassination, what happened today is far more serious in context.

The most powerful political office in the executive branch of government, the office of The President, is now endorsing the political, potentially violent, targeting of the justices within the most powerful office of the judicial branch of power, the justices of The Supreme Court of the United States.

Pause for a moment and let that settle in.

The President is now endorsing the targeting of Supreme Court justices.   The Executive Branch is now publicly targeting the Judicial Branch.

Separate but co-equal?  Again, think about the ramifications here.  WATCH:

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White House Announces Karine Jean-Pierre to Replace Jen Psaki Effective May 13th, Biden Also Reinstalls Media Fixer Anita Dunn


Posted originally on the conservatives tree house onMay 5, 2022 | Sundance

The White House has announced {SEE HERE} that Karine Jean-Pierre will replace Jen Psaki as chief narrative engineer for the Biden regime effective May 13, 2022.  Anita Dunn will return as media fixer.

[White House Press Release] – Today, President Biden announced Karine Jean-Pierre has been promoted to be Assistant to the President and White House Press Secretary. Karine will step into the Press Secretary role replacing Jen Psaki, who will depart from the White House on May 13.

Statement from President Biden: “I am proud to announce that Karine Jean-Pierre will serve as the next White House Press Secretary.

“Karine not only brings the experience, talent and integrity needed for this difficult job, but she will continue to lead the way in communicating about the work of the Biden-Harris Administration on behalf of the American people. Jill and I have known and respected Karine a long time and she will be a strong voice speaking for me and this Administration. (read more)

Additionally, the White House has announced Anita Dunn will return to the JoeBama administration as senior advisor.  Dunn’s specific expertise is using pressure, blackmail and political leverage to control information distribution by media organizations.

The reappearance of Anita Dunn aligns with the expressed intent of the DHS ‘disinformation’ board.  Dunn’s professional political skillset surrounds being a paid media fixer.   She has done this for multiple democrat politicians including Obama.  It was Anita Dunn who used her position in the Biden campaign to demand that media stop allowing Rudy Guiliani to explain the Biden family ‘pay to play’ financial system of selling influence.

Anita Dunn also advised Harvey Weinstein how to remove media stories of his Hollywood rape issues.

Dunn reappearing makes sense, as the U.S. government objective to control information is now in full swing.

JoeBamanomics, 77 Percent of Americans Rate Economy as Poor, 23 Percent Say Good, 63% of Americans Buying Fewer Groceries


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance 

May 4, 2022 | Sundance | 38 Comments

CNN conducted another poll to evaluate voter trends [pdf data here].  The results show a significant drop in American opinion of the economy with 77% rating the current status as “poor,” and 23% saying it’s “good.”  Additionally, 66% of people polled disapprove of the way Biden is handling the economy.

As CNN painfully noted: “Even within the Democratic Party, just 7 in 10 approve of Biden on the economy (71%) and helping the middle class (71%), considerably lower than the 86% of Democrats who approve of his performance overall. Fewer than half of Democrats say Biden has improved the nation’s economic standing (45%), down from 58% in December.” (article link)

In the video discussion, CNN Political Director David Chalian is just gobsmacked, stunned and amazed that 63% of these people are saying they are buying fewer groceries because stuff is just too expensive. WATCH:

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Whenever voters put democrats in charge of the economy, it just sucks.

Full Poll Pdf HERE }

Fed Raises Interest Rates .50 Percent, The Purposeful Inflation is Expected to Continue


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance

As expected, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates .50%.  However, inflation is expected to remain high as prior spending debt bubble remains in place.

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point, the biggest jump in 22 years, and the U.S. central bank’s chief made an appeal to Americans struggling with high inflation to be patient while officials take the hard measures to bring it under control. (read more)

Within hours of the announcement, major U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo Bank and Citibank raised their prime rate to 4%, effective Thursday.

The timing of the rate increase is what was expected.  Last year’s inflation spikes started appearing in June of 2021.  By delaying the 2022 FED response until right now, the political operatives in control of U.S. monetary policy create a scenario where the Fed impact will appear to surface in June of 2022. Exactly one year from the date of the first wave of inflation from the prior COVID spend.

Year-over-year inflation will statistically begin to give the appearance of moderation, once the June (’21) to June (’22) comparison cycle arrives.  The Fed and White House will use the intentionally timed statistical outcome to claim inflation is diminishing.  It’s a political trick we expected.

The key to remember is the western government debt incurred during COVID-19 is the problem.  The debt incurred is unsustainable, and that debt burden can only be reduced by devaluing the currency.  Inflation is the devaluing of currency that makes the debt manageable.  Dollars that are worth less also make the dollar-based debt worth less.

From the position of the government inflation is good, it makes the debt burden less heavy.  Unfortunately, that same inflation makes our money worth less, and our wages are chewed up by higher prices. Wages are destroyed by the increased prices the prior spending created.

In this inflation/debt position, the BlackRock/Vanguard approach of physical ownership of real estate and physical stuff becomes way more important than holding money or dollars which continue to lose value.  Physical ownership of material stuff is important right now, that’s why we have seen massive institutional investors purchasing real property and physical assets.

It’s not just a U.S. problem, all western government’s went on a COVID economy spending spree, and the scale of their spend/debt is directly proportionate to the current rate of their inflation.  The U.S. inflation is highest amid western economies because the U.S. government spent the most.

As the Fed raises interest rates, the Biden administration will continue spending money to keep inflation high.   When it comes to the rate of inflation, the Fed is putting one foot on the brake, while congress keeps it’s foot on the gas.

Remember, and emphasize as much as needed for importance, the U.S. government (Biden administration) needs inflation in order to sustain debt.

That’s why we are seeing a Ukraine spending package ($33 billion), the next round of COVID spending ($22 billion), and now a demand for a college loan bailout ($900 billion).  Combined the three massive spending packages generate another $1 trillion in artificial money, designed to keep inflation high.

The Fed/White House are working together to try and manipulate the economy.  You can identify their intent by noticing both actions work to counteract each other.

Right now, our U.S. economy is a game of musical chairs, and they are trying to keep the music playing.  However, the record is slowing (economy is contracting), and the music sounds weird.   Inside the economy the activity is not existent.  Consumer spending is high only because ordinary stuff costs more; the economy itself is not generating any additional value.

Things are very sketchy, and the Fed waiting for the calendar inflation cycle to arrive was transparent.

Too Dangerous to Allow Elon Musk Control Over So Much Data Says Washington Post


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 19, 2022 | sundance

The latest developments in the effort to purchase the unsustainable magic coffee shop are quite revealing.

According to the New York Post, “Musk himself is willing to invest between $10 billion and $15 billion of his own cash to take Twitter private, two sources close to the situation said. That’s up from the current 9.1% stake in the company he revealed on April 4, which is worth about $3.4 billion.”

However, more revealing about the overall issue are the comments from the PR firm of the U.S. Intelligence Community, The Washington Post:

(WaPo) […] “Putting so much power in the hands of one company is bad enough, but putting it in the hands of one person, as is largely the case with Facebook shareholder Mark Zuckerberg and would be the case if Twitter were owned by Musk, would be incompatible with democracy.” 

“There are simply no checks and balances from any internal or external force,” … “It would leave Musk, like Zuckerberg, with an amount of assembled data about people and the ability to use it to manipulate them “that cannot be compared to anything that has ever existed, and allows intervention into the integrity of individual behavior and also the integrity of collective behavior.” (read more)

People are starting to catch on to the reality that costs for data processing on many social media platforms (the free coffee), exceeds the ability of the platform to generate revenue.  People are starting to understand that behind the scenes of the Big Tech consortium, there is something else, some other operational construct and mechanism, that subsidizes & facilitates their existence.

It is very revealing how the intelligence apparatus of the United States had no issue with Twitter data and influence, until the potential for private ownership, perhaps uncontrolled private ownership, surfaced.  Do not be naïve in pretending not to know how The Washington Post represents the interests of the intelligence apparatus.

In the long arc of history, I truly believe we will discover the inflection moment for the merge of U.S. Deep State (intel community) and U.S. Social Media, will be identified in the early moments of the Arab Spring of 2010/2011.  That was when Facebook and Twitter became tools for the State Dept operation in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, Bahrain and beyond.  That was the beta-test of synergy.

“Arab Social Media Report by the Dubai School of Government give empirical heft to the conventional wisdom that Facebook and Twitter abetted if not enabled the historic region-wide uprisings of early 2011.” (LINK)

It was from that original, albeit misguided and manipulative partnership, when the actual details about how to create the social surveillance state was first tested.   Everything after those events more than a decade ago, has been this rapidly evolving blend of social media technology and the capacity of the U.S. intelligence apparatus to create and fund the underlying structures.

Daily, we see numerous examples of the ideological control that surfaces as a direct result of this public-private partnership, the closed-conversations between deep government interests (the Fourth Branch) and social media companies which are dependent on the subsidized technology for them to exist.

Perhaps 2022 represents the first time the commonsense of the American electorate begins to recognize the fallacy of the ‘free coffee’ business model.  Personally, I am very optimistic people will soon recognize what many have suspected for a long time.

Ultimately the question becomes, how far will the U.S. Fourth Branch of Government go to stop people from understanding?

Marc Andreessen believes Govt and Big Tech will double, triple and quadruple down to keep their public-private partnership, the backbone of the Free Coffee Shop, hidden.  I cannot say I disagree, because ultimately it is still only the minority of people who understand the stakes.  However, on the upside, the number of people who are starting to understand it, is growing almost exponentially thanks to Elon Musk.

(Source Link)

This is one of those situations where we should all welcome being called ‘conspiracy theorists’, because no matter how big the crowd is that refuses to believe it, ultimately the impossible business model of Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop will reveal everything.

That’s why the public-private partnership must stop Elon Musk.  As the Washington Post noted, this level of revelation “cannot be compared to anything that has ever existed.”

“Very shadowy” indeed.

CNN New Subscription Based Service Likely to Collapse, Spent $300 Million Only Gained 150k Subscribers


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 19, 2022 | sundance

Put this in the tracking file for ratios and such.  Axios is reporting that CNN+ is likely to collapse as Warner Bros has suspended all external marketing and product development and fired the Chief Financial Officer.  The network has spent $300 million, and only generated 150,000 subscribers.  A major fail by any measure.

(Via Axios) Warner Bros. Discovery has suspended all external marketing spend for CNN+ and has laid off CNN’s longtime chief financial officer as it weighs what to do with the subscription streaming service moving forward, five sources tell Axios.

• Why it matters: Inside CNN, executives think the launch has been successful. Discovery executives disagree.

• CNN+ has roughly 150,000 subscribers so far.

• Warner Bros. Discovery wants to eventually build one giant service around HBO Max.

• New leadership has replaced CNN CFO Brad Ferrer with Neil Chugani, Discovery’s current CFO for streaming and international, as part of a broader finance team restructuring.

• Other high-level positions at WarnerMedia across different business functions are likely to be eliminated to cut costs and streamline leadership in coming weeks.

What to watch: Sources say a plan is being considered to replace Chris Cuomo’s 9:00pm EST primetime slot with a live newscast, instead of personality-driven perspective programming. (read more)

Elon Musk Makes a Massive Proposal, Offers to Purchase Twitter for $41 Billion With Plan to Take Company Private


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 14, 2022 | sundance

April 14, 2022 | sundance | 553 Comments

The richest man in the world, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, made an offer to purchase the Twitter platform for a price of $41 billion.  The offer represents a value of 38% more than the current evaluation.  [SEC FILING HERE]  The offer is filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission proposing a full takeover for $54.20 per share in cash.

Within the filing Elon Musk states his intentions:

“I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy.  However, since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company.

As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder. Twitter has extraordinary potential.  I will unlock it. (SEC LINK)

What Elon Musk appears to be doing is perhaps the biggest story that few understand.

I share this perspective having spent thousands of hours in the past several years deep in the weeds of tech operating systems, communication platforms, and the issue of simultaneous users.   What Twitter represents, and what Musk is attempting, is not what most would think.

In the big picture of tech platforms, Twitter, as an operating model, is a massive high-user commenting system.

Twitter is not a platform built around a website; Twitter is a platform for comments and discussion that operates in the sphere of social media.  As a consequence, the technology and data processing required to operate the platform does not have an economy of scale.

There is no business model where Twitter is financially viable to operate…. UNLESS the tech architecture under the platform was subsidized.

In my opinion, there is only one technological system and entity that could possibly underwrite the cost of Twitter to operate.  That entity is the United States Government, and here’s why.

Unlike websites and other social media, Twitter is unique in that it only represents a platform for user engagement and discussion.  There is no content other than commentary, discussion and the sharing of information – such as linking to other information, pictures, graphics, videos url links etc.

In essence, Twitter is like the commenting system on the CTH website.  It is the global commenting system for users to share information and debate.  It is, in some ways, like the public square of global discussion.   However, the key point is that user engagement on the platform creates a massive amount of data demand.

Within the systems of technology for public (user engagement) commenting, there is no economy of scale.  Each added user represents an increased cost to the operation of the platform, because each user engagement demands database performance to respond to the simultaneous users on the platform.  The term “simultaneous users” is critical to understand because that drives the cost.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Twitter has approximately 217 million registered daily users, and their goal is to expand to 315 million users by the end of 2023.   Let me explain why things are not what they seem.

When people, users, operate on a tech platform using the engagement features, writing comments, hitting likes, posting images, links etc, the user is sending a data request to the platforms servers.  The servers must then respond allowing all simultaneous users to see the change triggered by the single user.

Example: when you hit the “like” button feature on an engagement system, the response (like increasing by one) must not only be visible to you, but must also be visible to those simultaneously looking at the action you took.   If 100,000 simultaneous users are looking at the same thing, the database must deliver the response to 100,000 people.  As a result, the number of simultaneous users on a user engagement platform drives massive performance costs.  In the example above, a single action by one person requires the server to respond to 100,000 simultaneous users with the updated data.

As a consequence, when a commenting platform increases in users, the cost not only increases because of that one user, the cost increases because the servers need to respond to all the simultaneous users.   Using CTH as an example, 10,000 to 15,000 simultaneous commenting system users, engaging with the servers, costs around $4,500/mo.

This is why most websites, even big media websites, do not have proprietary user engagement, i.e. commenting systems.  Instead, most websites use third party providers like Disqus who run the commenting systems on their own servers.  Their commenting systems are plugged in to the website; that defers the cost from the website operator, and the third party can function as a business by selling ads and controlling the user experience.  [It also sucks because user privacy is non existent]

The key to understanding the Twitter dynamic is to see the difference between, (a) running a website, where it doesn’t really matter how many people come to look at the content (low server costs), and (b) running a user engagement system, where the costs to accommodate the data processing -which increase exponentially with a higher number of simultaneous users- are extremely expensive.   Twitter’s entire platform is based on the latter.

There is no economy of scale in any simultaneous user engagement system.  Every added user costs exponentially more in data-processing demand, because every user needs a response, and every simultaneous user (follower) requires the same simultaneous response.  A Twitter user with 100 followers (simultaneously logged in) that takes an action – costs less than a Twitter user with 100,000 followers (simultaneously logged in), that takes an action.

If you understand the cost increases in the data demand for simultaneous users, you can see the business model for Twitter is non-existent.

Bottom line, more users means it costs Twitter more money to operate.  The business model is backwards from traditional business.  More customers = higher costs, because each customer brings more simultaneous users….. which means exponentially more data performance is needed.

User engagement features on Twitter are significant, because that’s all Twitter does.  Not only can users write comments, graphics, memes, videos, but they can also like comments, retweet comments, subtweet comments, bookmark comments, and participate in DM systems.  That is a massive amount of server/data performance demand, and when you consider simultaneous users, it’s almost unimaginable in scale.  That cost and capacity is also the reason why Twitter does not have an edit function.

With 217 million users, you could expect 50 million simultaneous users on Twitter during peak operating times.  My back of the envelope calculations, which are really just estimations based on known industry costs for data performance and functions per second, would put the data cost to operate Twitter around at least $1 billion per month (minimum).  In 2021, Twitter generated $5.1 billion in revenue, according to the Wall Street Journal.

There is no business model, even with paying subscribers, for Twitter to exist.  As the business grows, the costs increase, and the costs to subscribers would grow.  So, what is going on?

The only way Twitter, with 217 million users, could exist as a viable platform is if they had access to tech systems of incredible scale and performance, and those systems were essentially free or very cheap.  The only entity that could possibly provide that level of capacity and scale is the United States Government – combined with a bottomless bank account.

If my hunch is correct, Elon Musk is poised to expose the well-kept secret that most social media platforms are operating on U.S. government tech infrastructure and indirect subsidy.  Let that sink in.

The U.S. technology system, the assembled massive system of connected databases and server networks, is the operating infrastructure that offsets the cost of Twitter to run their own servers and database.  The backbone of Twitter is the United States government.

There is simply no way the Fourth Branch of Government, the U.S. intelligence system writ large, is going to permit that discovery.

Die Vaccinated


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Apr 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

A reader shared this story from last year, highlighting the stupidity of vaccinations. Germany permits legal euthanasia for those suffering from terminal illnesses who meet specific qualifications. One of those qualifications is that they must be vaccinated against COVID-19. The German Euthanasia Association announced in November 2021 that they would only assist patients who have received the vaccination or recovered from the illness. So although you may be ready to depart from this world and cannot handle any additional side effects, Big Pharma still needs to be paid.

The group demanded that suffering patients follow Germany’s 2G rule that permitted them to deny access to the unvaccinated (geimpft) or those who have recovered (genesen). The mental gymnastics needed to create this rule stated that since patients will come in close contact with caregivers, “human closeness” could be a “breeding ground for coronavirus transmission.” The associated declared, “[T]he 2G rule applies in our association, supplemented by situation-related measures, such as quick tests before encounters in closed rooms.” The phrase “encounters in closed rooms” is a delicate way to word suicide. I suppose St. Peter is checking for vaccination passports at the pearly gates in line with the pope’s guidelines.

The German Constitution protects personal freedom and the right to choose how to die, but you may not choose how to live.