A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, December 2019 Data


From the attached report on climate change for December 2019 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up a bit over 30.0% from 1958 to December of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.

The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

BLACKBODY TEMPERATURE 2019-12

 

Climate Change & the 2020 ECM Turning Point


The climate change propaganda has become a major economic factor which is undermining the global economy and lowering the standard of living for the average person. Governments have embraced it simply because it is the perfect excuse to raise taxes. It is causing separatist movements such as in Alberta, Canada to the civil unrest in France.

The entire agenda has been orchestrated by real fanatics who are against the Industrial Revolution. Both Greenpeace’s Jennifer Morgan and Al Gore have pushed a very distorted theory using unsupported facts from a pretend 97% consensus on down to attributing the cyclical swing back from the Little Ice Age since the early 1800s to exclusively humans refusing to look at the historical cyclical record of climate.

Their push to enforce their theories by imposing higher taxes and regulations has set in motion the collapse of the German economy which is dooming the Eurozone as a whole. Al Gore and Jennifer Morgan have helped to instigate shutting down any dissent against their movement when we need serious investigations. To dissent is reminiscent of the witchhunts of McCarthy against Hollywood.

The insolvency of numerous European automobile manufacturers is now openly predicted by industry observers. Everything has to be subordinate to the change towards e-mobility and self-driving cars. The fact that electric cars are still not competitive is neglected, as is the question of whether citizens want to drive in vehicles controlled by technology groups.

The turning point in 2020 will be a very profound event that will be viewed with hindsight as we now can see the importance of the change in trend at the top of the ECM — 2015.75.

NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle reveals it will be the weakest of 200 years. Results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach their maximum in 2025. It is very interesting how it has aligned with the ECM turning point on January 18th. If we begin to see a sharp rise in volcanic eruptions, two or three such eruptions of 6+ can create a volcanic winter that would feed into the commodity cycle sending food prices much higher.

Volcanoes & the Risk During Solar Minimum


COMMENT: Dear Marty,
Thank you so much for warning all for what is coming !

Sorry to keep reflecting on details, you wrote :“The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6- 7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter. The other risk is 5 to 6 small eruptions under VEI 6 but are VEI3 or greater.”

VEI is a logaritmic scale, so to create the same impact of one VEI 7, you need 10 VEI 6, 100 VEI 5, 10,000 VEI 4 or 100,000 VEI3. 5 to 6 small eruptions of VEI3 ? won’t do much, sorry hope attached table comes thru high VEI’s not only throw up more dust, ie VEI 6 does 0.003% of the stratosphere volume, VEI 7 0.032%, VEI 8 0.3% and VEI 9 3% high VEI’s do shoot much higher as well; VEI 5 may reach stratosphere; so the impact will not be limited to stratosphere only the frequency extrapolation does tell us a lot about how we can not imagine what could happen where VEI 5 would occur every 12 years, VEI 9 only once 27,000 years do not know where it ends, because it is an extrapolation BUT given the big mass extinctions come in cycles of multiples of 31.4 million years the event probably is much larger than that would it be a significant meteorite impact that triggers many quakes and eruptions ?

REPLY: You are absolutely correct. We do know that there were two volcanoes that erupted which produced the year without a summer. Evidence suggests that this event took place during the Solar Minimum and was predominantly the result of a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia) which was a VEI7. This eruption was probably the largest eruption since the 6th century AD which produced devastation between 535–536 AD. It is believed that the year without a summer was probably enhanced due to the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines which was VEI4.

You are correct that it would probably take a number of smaller eruptions because of the log scale. However, Tambora may not have been sufficient to alter the climate entirely by itself. It is hard to rule out that Mayon, which was only a VEI4, combined with the VEI7 to create the devastation.

However, evidence has been uncovered from around the world that the early Dark Ages of the 6th century AD was most likely triggered by an eruption around 535 AD, which was probably a VEI7+ event. There was a natural phenomenon of cataclysmic proportions that altered the world and even changed religion. This event created major political, economic and social changes that few people have ever bothered to connect the dots.

It has long been believed that there was probably an eruption from Ilopango in El Salvador. There was probably a second eruption perhaps in Indonesia and may have been Krakatoa.

There was a major volcanic explosion that was equal to more than 2000 Hiroshima size bombs. Human civilization was altered from the Mayan to Mongolia in the north to Constantinople and Southeast Asia. There were devastating plagues, famine, death, and great migration which caused people to move south. Empires and city-states collapsed including Teotihuacan in Mexico, the Anglo-Saxon victory over the Celts and invasions, and it contributed to the rise of Islam. Even in India, we see the Gupta Empire of Northern India collapsed by 543 AD as it too was overrun by the Huna during the mid-6th century. The Sasanian Empire in Persia also peaked during the 6th century.

The political, economic, and religious changes which took place because of this devastating 6th-century volcanic winter were profound. This is what might result from two VEI7s.


NOTE:

VEI km

3 frequency days =years %troposphere plume km km km3 delta
0 0.000001 0.000000003% 0.1 earth 31,879,029
1 0.00001 1 0.0 0.00000003% 0.3
2 0.0001 14 0.0 0.0000003% 1.0
3 0.001 90 0.2 0.000003% 3.2 troposphere 3 31,910,116 31,087
4 0.01 540 1.5 0.00003% 10
5 0.1 4,380 12 0.00032% 32 stratosphere 15 32,024,304 114,188
6 1 18,250 50 0.003% 100 mesosphere 50 32,381,370 357,066
7 10 182,500 500 0.032% 316 thermosphere 85 32,735,345 353,975
8 100 1,500,000 4,110 0.3% 1,000 exosphere 600 38,166,299 5,430,954
9 1,000 10,000,000 27,397 3.2% 3,162
10 10,000 90,000,000 246,575 32.2% 10,000

 

Carney of Bank of England Claims Climate Change Will Make Pensions Worthless


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney using climate change to claim that pension funds will be worthless? He is just insane or a fraud using this to cover up the pension fund crisis?

SK

ANSWER: There is just no possible way that climate change has anything to do with pensions. We actually have major institutions asking us to generate a theoretical green portfolio that DOES NOT LOSE MONEY just so they can claim they have some “green” in their portfolio.

Any investment in “green” companies has resulted in major losses. So there is no logic to what Carney is saying unless it is a cover-up for the pension crisis that is unfolding. Governments have ordered pension funds to buy government debts and then they take interest rates down to negative. The governments, without climate change, are ensuring that pensions will be worthless. It seems that he is using climate change as the excuse for the pension system failure.

He is clearly demonstrating what the elites think of the people – just stupid!

The Climate Change of the 1840s


QUESTION: OK, you have shown articles from the 1930s and 1970s where they talked about climate change. So are you saying that people have always been talking about climate change for decades? This is not something new I presume.

SK

ANSWER: The climate has always changed. Even during the 1840s when there was a major Sovereign Debt Crisis in the USA, there was also the issue of climate change. Here is an article from Australia back in 1846 speaking about climate change.

Here we have Climate Change being discussed in the United States also in 1846. The comment was that they saw all four seasons in a single day.

There is nothing new. You can search the newspapers and find periods during which climate change was being discussed. Here during 1846, this is when the earth was still coming out of the Little Ice Age. There too they were talking about climate change.

Climate has ALWAYS changed.  I  do not see how we can suddenly pretend it has never changed and since it is, OMG, we must have caused it

Is Climate Change Dispute the Same As the Fall of Rome?


Climate Change has become a fanatical religion because there is no proof and it rests entirely on belief. This is taking on the traits of the religious dispute which marked the fall of Rome – Pagans v Christianity. Like the Pagans, they immediately attack anyone who dares to disagree with them and they will not tolerate even a discussion. That was very much the same tactics employed by the Pagans.

What is clear is that the volcanic activity is increasing thanks to Solar Minimum. We now have another eruption going on in Mexico the residents call “El Popo.” This is the most active volcano in Mexico. It is not expected to be extremely dangerous. The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6-7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter.

The other risk is 5 to 6 small eruptions under VEI 6 but are VEI3 or greater. The accumulative impact could be similar insofar it causes crop failures and thus a significant impact on agricultural prices. This is also concerning given the rise in earthquake activity in the Caribbean.

Recently, the Viking Rök stone, which is an ancient five-ton granite slab erected in southern Sweden sometime during the 9th century AD, has recently been translated after stumping scientists for more than 100 years. It turns out that it is referring to climate change when crops failed during the 6th century AD. We know that during the 6th century, there was a major climate catastrophic event which resulted in 50% of the population of Scandinavia starved to death. This event during the 6th century was a major volcanic event that devastated the human population globally.

We have further documentation of a major volcanic event also recorded during the reign of the Byzantine Emperor Justinian. There was a truly tumultuous period where the climate turned violent with a volcanic winter, which enabled his many conquests as less organized societies were unable to cope with the effects. There was a mysterious fog that plunged over Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia casting them into darkness. This catastrophic event lasted for 18 months. The Byzantine historian Procopius wrote: “For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year.”  Temperatures in the summer plummeted creating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell as far east as China during the summer causing starvation as crops failed. The Irish chronicles recorded that “a failure of bread from the years 536–539” took place.

The mysterious clouds which engulfed the world contributed to the era being called the Dark Ages in Western Europe. From a Swiss glacier, ice core samples were obtained at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine. They determined that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere during early in 536AD. Two other massive eruptions followed in subsequent years during 540AD and again during 547AD. What appears to have been three successive major volcanic eruptions, the Dark Ages entered a volcanic winter which plunged Europe into famine which lasted for nearly 100 years into 640AD. This was also a solar minimumwhich seems to correlate to an increase in volcanic activity.

With famine comes lower nutrition leaving the people more suspectable to disease. It appears that following the 546AD eruption, we then see the Justinian Plague (541-542AD) which was bubonic plague, involving Yersinia pestis, which struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. This plague spread rapidly throughout the Empire wiping out one-third to one-half of the entire population of the Eastern Roman Empire.

My concern is we are headed into a Solar Minimum which may be the steepest since the Little Ice Age of 200 years or more. The climate change fanatics have risen their claims to the level of a virtual religious belief. Even the Royal Family of British has split with Harry and his wife claiming they are “progressive” and have also bought into the whole human-caused climate change.

These climate activists will not listen to reason. They immediately seek to attack and demonize anyone who dares to oppose them. They have weaseled into governments and  DAVOS using a 16-year-old girl they dare to present as a climate authority.

The extreme antics of the Climate Activists seem to be adopting the hostile role of the Pagans during the fall of the Roman Empire. They too were claiming that society was doomed because the Christians would not worship their gods and the gods were angry. The climate was turning colder which was indeed resulting in mass migrations south as the Romans called them the barbarians.

We seem to be experiencing the same sort of division with intense hatred being hurled at anyone who seeks to argue against the Climate Activists. Religion is declining and progressivism (Marxism) is rising and the core of the Climate Activists is to destroy modern society blaming the Industrial Revolution for the entire warming period post-1850 which was the normal cyclical rise from the Little Ice Age.

Image result for chart of solar minimum and maximum roman empire

This is a very similar clash that divided the Roman Empire and set its final decline in motion. Here we are once again headed into Solar Minimum with the risk of cold weather resulting in serious mass starvation.

The Maya originally also declined into the 6th century AD, and then as the climate began to improve after the Volcanic Winter of the 6th century, this is when the Maya constructed Chichen Itza which was a major ceremonial focal point in the Northern Maya Lowlands from the Late Classic (c. 600–900AD). This became the only place where human sacrifices seemed to have taken place and they were most likely to appease the gods after the devastation of the 6th century AD. One life was offered to save thousands.

 

Australia Fires – Nature or Global Warming?


QUESTION: Hello Martin,
I have been following your blog for a number of years and enjoy your more analyzed perspective on climate change. I am not fully convinced man [that] is causing the changes and I’d like to hear your opinion about the Australian fires. Living here in and amongst the carnage of the fires and the severe drought, it is hard to ignore all the arguments for climate change being a factor.
Kind regards,
CW

ANSWER: It is very easy for the global warming crowd to make claims that every hot day proves their theory or that a drought in Australia is the result of CO2. They offer ZERO historical evidence to support their claims. They simply make claims that this is the hottest year so that proves it is CO2.

I just published the earthquake data for the Caribbean. There has been a sharp increase in activity with solar minimum. All they would have to do is show the correlation. But they never do because there is zero evidence to support climate change is human induced. If that were true, then the data should reveal that there were no such events prior to the Industrial Revolution. They also ignore the historical record that shows climate has always changed. They do not even try to address those issues and the mainstream press just prints their claims as if they are uncontested facts without the slightest investigation.

There have been red tides that kill fish. Immediately, they blame farmers and chemicals. There are no farmers near me and there are no such chemicals that spill into the ocean from farming. All you have to do is Google it and you will see that the first recorded fish kill was 1648. There were reports of red tides in the Caribbean as early as 1530 (see: Red Tides HistoryKarenia brevis).

Australia has a history of droughts and bush fires. I have lived there and been to absolutely every area. The most well known of these are the Federation drought (1895-1903), the World War II drought (1939-45), and the recent Millennium drought (1997-2009). All three droughts were devastating to agriculture and the broader economy.

As far as major wildfires, they too predate the Industrial Revolution. There was the 1850-1851 Black Thursday bush fires of February 6th, 1851 in Victoria. That event resulted in burning the second largest area (approximately 5,000,000 hectares (12,000,000 acres)) in European-recorded history. That fire killed 12 people, but more than one million sheep and thousands of cattle. The current wildfire has reached 4.9 million hectares in NSW. Again, this is not something that is totally unknown or unprecedented. They do run the risk of making a new record high, but that does not prove that CO2 is the cause.

There was also the 1897-1898 Red Tuesday bush fire of February 1st, 1898 in Victoria. That engulfed 260,000 hectares (640,000 acres) and some 2000 buildings were destroyed.

These activists claim everything is CO2 without any evidence whatsoever and people accept whatever they just say. I can claim I sold the very high in the Dow in 1929 and bought the day of the low in 1932. Can you imagine if the press just repeated that claim without ever bothering to check to see if I was alive back then?

Nature itself demonstrates that these people are outright liars. The Amitermes meridionalis species are termites that are native to the northern part of Northern Territory of Australia, around Darwin. They build mounds that are typically 13 ft tall to survive both floods and bush fires. The animals have developed strategies to survive both floods and fires because they are historically common and not some new development post-1850 and the industrial revolution.

Even the giant redwood trees in California where bush fires are also common have adapted to the environment. They will grow burls which come to life in the event of a fire and can regrow the tree.

In Australia and California, which are both prone to bush fires, the plant and animal life have evolved over hundreds of years to adapt to wildfires. This does not support the claims that the fires in Australia are because of CO2. Everyone demands proof that this is not caused by CO2 instead of demanding that they support their wild claims with at least some correlation study

Polar Shift – The Undefinable Risk?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am a new reader. I was recommended to look to your site when I was in a climate debate with a friend. They never tell us that the sun has a cycle which beats like your heart as you put it. I also never knew the north pole moved drastically. I am left speechless as to why these climate change people never address anything beyond CO2. Do you think the world will wake up before it is too late to discover these people are just liars?

HM

ANSWER: It has been in Europe which seems destined to collapse because of all the climate change regulations. It is a general consensus now among people I speak to in the German auto industry that they will be driven into bankruptcy before there is any recognition that this is all nonsense.

The North Pole is moving rapidly toward Siberia. The North Pole has always moved, but never at such a rapid pace in modern history. We have historical data from old ships’ logs covering the past 400 years. We know that the north magnetic pole has hung around northern Canada and was very steady. During the 20th century, it moved perhaps tens of several miles (kilometers) oscillating back and forth. It has been only during the last 50 years where the North Pole began to move northward. Then during the last 30 years, it began to accelerate rapidly. Suddenly it began to move about from about 6 miles (five to 10km) in a year to a sharp increase of about 37 miles (50 or 60km) per year.

The North Pole is now moving very rapidly towards Siberia. There has been considerable debate whether the complete disappearance of the woolly mammoths and other animals that thrived during the Ice Age was caused by a “quick-freeze” perhaps due to a pole shift, or some other major mystery of paleontology. There have been several carcasses discovered and the preserved food in specimens’ stomachs raised interesting questions. This is why the “quick freeze” catastrophe appears reasonable. Much of the support centers around the fact that the mammoths were quickly frozen, which explains the state of their food contents still in their stomachs, which has been also the main evidence for a quick freeze.

Actually, Birds Eye Frozen Foods Company ran an experiment based on heat conduction and the state of preservation of the stomach contents. They concluded that the atmospheric temperature had to quickly fall below -150°F (-100°C) (Dillow, J.C., The waters above: Earth’s pre-Flood vapor canopy, Moody Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 383–396, 1981). There have been some who tried to link this with the great flood from the Bible. This does not seems plausible in the least.

All we have are a lot of questions. There may be thousands of woolly mammoth carcasses still buried in the permafrost. Forget trying to fit this into the Bible. From carbon dating, the animals appear to have been frozen about 42,000 years ago. Recently, a 42,000-year-old Lena horse was discovered frozen in Siberian permafrost which contained the oldest liquid blood on record.

Clearly, whatever froze these animals was well beyond the Biblical flood or some 7,000 years ago. The speculation that seems to make the most sense was a polar shift which was perhaps sudden.

Taal Volcano Erupts in Philippines


COMMENT: Dear Martin,

You might find this interesting.

Today the Taal volcano in Luzon, Philippines, erupted in a violent way sending an ash plume as high as 16 km (55.000 ft).

The last time this volcano erupted was in 1977. This is 43 years ago which equals to 5*8.6.

The low solar activity seems to be stirring up things quite a bit.

Best regards,

SG

REPLY: Taal has a long history, and I believe this is the 34th record eruption since the 16th century. I also believe that so far these eruptions are generally VEI 5 or less. Currently, there are warnings that this may be a precursor to a larger eruption.

Taal is very close to Manilla. It is on an island that settlement is forbidden because it has been very active.

The current record-holder remains 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913. There have been studies, besides our own correlation models, which have shown that during Solar Minimum, which is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, there is an increase in volcanic activity. The Dalton Minimum produced the 1816 event known as the Year Without a Summer.

Harvard University explained that the “Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715) … was responsible for at least 70 years of abnormally cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere.” There appears to be an increase in volcanic activity during these Solar Minimum events. Indeed, at Taal, there were eruptions that took place in 1572, 1591, 1605, 1611, 1634, 1635, 1641, and 1645. There was a gap again until 1707, 1709 followed by 1715, 1716. 1729, 1731, 1749, and 1754 with a gap until and the Dalton Minimum began with 1790, 1825, and 1842. There were subsequent eruptions, some minor, during 1873, 1874, 1885, 1903, 1904, 1911, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1976 and 1977.

Here, there were eruptions at Taal in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 with a gap until 2019 and now 2020 as we are headed back into a Solar Minimum which NASA warns will be the lowest in 200 years. It at least appears that we should expect an increase in earthquakes and volcanic activity going into the next ECM cycle.

This is the crisis with the Climate Change activists for they are blocking any other research for fear that it will reveal there is a natural cycle unfolding, not human-driven

The Fraud in Climate Change Exposed