Posted originally on the CTH on March 27, 2023 | Sundance
We loaded a CERT toolbox trailer yesterday that is heading to Mississippi to assist as recovery efforts get underway. Samaritan’s Purse is now on the ground in two locations, Rolling Fork and Armory [Register to Volunteer Here] Any Treepers in the impact zone check in and feel free to provide updates on the ground events that relate to your area.
(Via Fox News) – Help began pouring into one of the poorest regions of the U.S. after a deadly tornado tore a path of destruction for more than an hour across a long swath of Mississippi, even as furious new storms Sunday struck across the Deep South.
At least 25 people were killed and dozens of others were injured in Mississippi as the massive storm ripped through more than a half-dozen towns late Friday. A man was also killed in Alabama after his trailer home flipped over several times.
“Everything I can see is in some state of destruction,” said Jarrod Kunze, who drove to the hard-hit Mississippi town of Rolling Fork from his home in Alabama, ready to help “in whatever capacity I’m needed.”
[…] The storm hit so quickly that the sheriff’s department in Rolling Fork barely had time to set off sirens to warn the community of 2,000 residents, said Mayor Eldridge Walker.
“And by the time they initiated the siren, the storm had hit and it tore down the siren that’s located right over here,” Walker said, referring to an area just blocks from downtown. The mayor said his town was devastated.
“Sharkey County, Mississippi, is one of the poorest counties in the state of Mississippi, but we’re still resilient,” he said. “We’ve got a long way to go, and we certainly thank everybody for their prayers and for anything they will do or can do for this community.”
[…] Following Biden’s declaration, federal funding will be available for recovery efforts in Mississippi’s Carroll, Humphreys, Monroe and Sharkey counties, including temporary housing, home repairs, loans covering uninsured property losses and other individual and business programs, the White House said in a statement.
The twister flattened entire blocks, obliterated houses, ripped a steeple off a church and toppled a municipal water tower.
Based on early data, the tornado received a preliminary EF-4 rating, the National Weather Service office in Jackson said in a tweet. An EF-4 tornado has top wind gusts between 166 mph and 200 mph.
In Rolling Fork, the tornado reduced homes to piles of rubble and flipped cars on their sides. Other parts of the Deep South were digging out from damage caused by other suspected twisters. (read more)
Samaritan’s Purse is setting up in the following locations:
ROLLING FORK/SILVER CITY Lake Washington First Baptist Church 1068 Lake Washington Rd E Glen Allan, MS 38744
AMORY First Assembly of God Amory 521 Tschudi Road Amory, MS 38821
Dear God, please bring the residents and families of those in the Mississippi area to Your throne of comfort. The shock and pain is unimaginable as they anguish over the loss of their town, their homes, their sense of normalcy and possibly their loved ones.
Father of mercy and comfort wrap Your loving arms around them. Hold them close. Help them to breathe and overcome the choking knot of despair in their throat. Raise them, strengthen them, provide assurance for them. Help the victims to see forward. Dear Lord please provide wisdom and strength to the leaders of every community.
Please God, provide strength for their continued faith in You through this horrific destruction. Lavish them with Your love and fill the void of loss in their hearts. In Jesus’ powerful name, I believe and pray. Amen.
Posted originally on the CTH on February 6, 2023 | Sundance
I did not have internet access for most of today, another long-term recovery issue. However, now that I am seeing the footage of the earthquake in Southern Turkey and Northern Syria, my prayers are for all of those in the region. The devastation is just incredible.
According to the Associated Press, 5,600 buildings have collapsed and several of them came down today during aftershocks amid search and rescue operations. The current recorded death toll is over 4,300 people, with the World Health Organization (WHO) predicting the total loss of life could exceed 20,000. This is just horrific.
The estimated 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit over an area of several major population centers. The Guardian reports, “the population of the ten provinces in southern Turkey affected by the earthquakes are home to 13.5 million people. So far, according to the Andalou agency, more than 5,600 buildings have collapsed.
It is just after 6am in Turkey, and we’re seeing stories of people rescued after a very long day and night, which means they survived not only the rubble’s collapse but the cold. There are many, many more who have not yet been found, with the WHO predicting the death toll could reach 20,000 in the coming days. For now, here are videos of a three-year-old toddler and a woman who were freed from collapsed buildings by rescuers.” (link)
(Via Reuters) […] The magnitude 7.8 quake brought down whole apartment blocks in Turkish cities and piled more devastation on millions of Syrians displaced by years of war. It struck before sunrise in harsh weather and was followed in the early afternoon by another large quake.
In Diyarbakir in southeast Turkey, a woman speaking next to the wreckage of the seven-storey block where she lived said: “We were shaken like a cradle. There were nine of us at home. Two sons of mine are still in the rubble, I’m waiting for them.”
She was nursing a broken arm and had injuries to her face.
“It was like the apocalypse,” said Abdul Salam al-Mahmoud, a Syrian in the northern town of Atareb. “It’s bitterly cold and there’s heavy rain, and people need saving.” (more)
All-powerful Father, as we see all of the destruction caused by this natural disaster, we mourn for all that has been lost and the fragility of this life.
Lord God of mercy, please comfort those who have lost somebody they love, and those who are yet still searching. Give them comfort and peace.
Heavenly Father, be a protective wing for those who have survived, but lost their home. Grant the men, women and children the needed fortitude and assistance they need to recover and rebuild. Show me how best to pray for their needs and guide my prayer.
Lord God of all creation, be strong with directed purpose for those whose job it is to search through the rubble for those lost. Give them endurance and strength as they complete their responsibilities.
God of comfort and mercy, help us come together as one body in You during this time of tragedy.
You are the redeemer, the source of our strength and courage, please provide us with reassurance, humanity and faith.
In Your holy and merciful name, we humbly kneel and pray.
Posted originally on the CTh on January 14, 2023 | Sundance
Their names will not make national headlines, and generally everyone has moved on, but to their families and friends Ilonka Knes and James Hurst mattered. As CTH readers may remember, in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian we shared that many missing people would be found in the months after the storm, and unfortunately many more will likely never be found.
The body of Mrs Ilonka Knes (82) was found in the mangroves and back bay salt marsh near Fort Myers Beach and has been positively identified. The body of her husband Robert was found in the days immediately following Hurricane Ian.
Additionally, the sailboat “Good Girl” was found submerged with human remains believed to be the body of James ‘Denny’ Hurst (73).
Mrs. Knes and Mr Hurst bring the total number of Hurricane Ian victims in Lee County, Florida, to seventy-five. Mr. Hurst was the final “official” missing person on the local list; however, there are many more yet unaccounted that were not from this immediate area. The physical devastation is widespread, but the emotional toll on the families and friends of the missing has been beyond imagining. Tonight, two more families have answers.
(FLORIDA) – During Thursday’s news conference, Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno released new information regarding the area’s recovery.
“Most of us have gotten back to a sense of the new normal. For some, still missing their loved ones, every day since the storm has been difficult,” said Marceno.
The sheriff said his agency originally attempted a well-being check at what was left at the home of Ilonka and Robert Knes in the aftermath of the storm.
The body of Robert Knes was found shortly after Ian struck, but there were no signs of his wife during the days and weeks following the disaster.
Marceno said it wasn’t until mid-January that a debris removal crew found remains in a dense patch of mangroves, that later tested positive, through the use of dental records, to be that of Ilonka. (more)
The power and duration of Hurricane Ian killed more people than Hurricane Andrew and the storm that hit Southwest Florida last September is now recorded as the deadliest storm in the past 87 years.
If you live anywhere along the coastline of the United States, inland to about 50 miles, please remember to always take these storms seriously.
After this storm, and having been through four previous direct impacts, including Homestead AFB (Andrew), I would say this…. If there is even a remote chance you would ever encounter this type of a hurricane event, EVACUATE. Do not try and hunker down if there is a looming possibility of having to rely on a structure to withstand 150+ mph wind for a full day. Just leave. With all of my preparations in place, and all of the knowledge I possess in storm survival, I would never attempt it again.
It is more than three months since Hurricane Ian hit Southwest Florida and beyond the chaos and debris that still remains visible almost everywhere, they are still recovering bodies. Please take hurricane preparations seriously.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 22, 2022 | Sundance
Extreme winter weather, such as subzero temperatures, wind chills and heavy snow, is impacting much of the U.S. this Christmas holiday weekend and is expected to heavily impact travel. Major parts of the U.S. electricity grid are very vulnerable, particularly as a result of Biden energy policy, steering investment away from coal, oil and natural gas.
Places across the northern Rockies, northern Plains and upper Midwest are experiencing temperature drops by tens of degrees in minutes. The extremely cold airmass is expected to hit at least 24 other states along the Gulf Coast and in the eastern U.S. The National Weather Service has a Detailed Warning HERE.
The potential for severe consequences as an outcome of this winter storm has the political minders of Joe Biden worried.
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(Via NWS) – A major and anomalous storm system is forecast to produce a multitude of weather hazards through early this weekend, as heavy snowfall, strong winds, and dangerously cold temperatures span from the northern Great Basin through the Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and the northern/central Appalachians.
At the forefront of the impressive weather pattern is a dangerous and record-breaking cold air mass in the wake of a strong arctic cold front diving southward across the southern Plains today and eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by tonight.
Behind the front, temperatures across the central High Plains have already plummeted 50 degrees F in just a few hours, with widespread subzero readings extending throughout much of the central/northern Plains and northern Rockies/Great Basin.
These temperatures combined with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and higher wind gusts of up to 60 mph will continue to lead to wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees across a large swath of the Intermountain West and northern/central Plains, with more localized areas of minus 50 to minus 70 possible through the end of the week. (read more)
I am reminded of Fort Wainwright, Alaska, in January of 1989, when a cold airmass settled on the state for weeks. It was so cold (-50°, -70° or worse) that airplanes could not achieve lift. McGrath went from +29° to -42° during a work shift. During a single work shift everyone’s truck tires were flat and frozen. LOL… Crazy stuff.
Joe Biden – “I’m going to, shortly, be briefed by — by both FEMA and the National Weather Service, and we’re going to start that briefing. And — but in the meantime, please take this storm extremely seriously. And I don’t know whether your bosses will let you, but if you all have travel plans, leave now. Not — not a joke. I’m tell- — sending my staff — my staff, if they have plans to leave on — tomorrow — late tonight or tomorrow, I’m telling them to leave now. They can talk to me on the phone. It’s not life and death. But it will be if they don’t — if they don’t get out, they may not get out. So, any rate, thank you all for coming in, and I’m going to do the briefing now. Thank you.” (link)
The polar air will bring “extreme and prolonged freezing conditions for southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana,” the National Weather Service (NWS) said in a special weather statement Sunday.
“We’re looking at much-below normal temperatures, potentially record-low temperatures leading up to the Christmas holiday,” said NWS meteorologist Zack Taylor. (link)
QUESTION: Marty, we had an earthquake here in Northern California today that seems to be following your forecast building into 2028. Can you update your earthquake chart?
Thank you
Jeff
ANSWER: Here is the update. Socrates has already pulled that data down. Yes, the trend appears to be building into a serious cluster for 2028 which may exceed that of 1954. This chart is recording ONLY those quakes that are 6.0 or higher. There are numerous quakes in the 4 to 5 range. It was the 1906 Earthquake that set in motion the Panic of 1907 since the insurance companies were in NYC and the claims were in California. It was JP Morgan who stepped up to save the banks in NY and that became the model for how the Federal Reserve was created with 13 branches to manage the regional capital flows that resulted in the financial crisis in the aftermath of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake which was a 7.7 on the Richter Scale.
This chart presents the total number of quakes regardless of the magnitude. Here we can see that 1992 was the year with the greatest number of quakes irrespective of magnitude. This is a different perspective entirely. The top chart is what I have called the cluster perspective where we only took into account 6.0 or higher. This illustrates that just like market activity, earthquakes build in intensity. They produce clusters of magnitude. The next serious period should still be 2028.
We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025. Solar Cycle 24 which ended in December 2019, was of average in length, at 11 years. However, it was the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. We’re now in Solar Cycle 25 and we are still in Solar Minimum conditions at this time. Solar Maximum is predicted to occur midway through this cycle which may come as soon as November 2024 but no later than March 2026, with this ideal peak reaching most likely by July 2025.
Right now, the solar wave is conforming more to our model than that of NASA. The Sun has become far more active than NASA has forecast or expected. NASA is beginning to worry that this Solar Cycle 25 could become the Strongest Cycle Since Records Began. Effectively, in terms of our model terminology, Solar Cycle 25 may be a Panic Cycle. In other words, we appear to be headed into the strongest cycle on record following the weakest cycle. That is high volatility in cycle terminology.
So what does this mean for Markets?
Since this Solar Minimum may continue into 2024, that appears to be a very major turning point on our global food index. Most of our models on markets are showing Panic Cycles in the 2027-2028 time period. That appears to be more war than nature.
I warned that Socrates, which monitors everything around the world, noticed a distinct correlation that more volcanos erupt during Solar Minimum. There have been many studies on the impact of UV and gamma radiation during solar changes and events. Gamma-rays are a form of electromagnetic radiation, as are radio waves, infrared radiation, ultraviolet radiation, X-rays, and microwaves. Gamma-rays can be used to treat cancer, and gamma-ray bursts are studied by astronomers.
I have also reported that our correlation models also show that solar minimums correspond to increased volcanic activity. Volcanic winters take place during solar minimums. It certainly seems that gamma-rays may be the reason volcanoes erupt more during these periods. This certainly also reduces food production and increases disease, presumably because of a rise in malnutrition. However, since gamma-rays are also used to treat cancer, there is at least a basis to warrant further investigation if the increase in gamma-rays during solar minimums impact certain susceptible people or those with particular DNA sequences.
We tend to ignore volcanos since they are not in our backyard. The deadly aspect of these volcanic eruptions is not the loudness of the boom, but how much ash it throws up into the atmosphere which then blocks the sun creating Volcanic Winter.
Mount Tambora (VEI 7) erupted in 1816 and threw into the air so much ash that it snowed during the summer in New York City. It became known as 18-hundred-and-froze-to-death. This account from history tells the story that 1816 was a year when the sunlight could not penetrate the natural pollution from Tambora. As a result of a volcanic eruption at Mount Tambora in Indonesia, weather patterns were disrupted worldwide for months, allowing for excessive rain, frost, and snowfall through much of the Northeastern U.S. and Europe in the summer of 1816.
The global cooling altered the natural weather and it resulted in a serious food shortage that set off a mass migration from New England to the Midwest within the USA as people were trying to find the sun. Some saw this as an omen and there was also a religious revival.
Almost one year has now passed since the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano erupted (VEI 5). Only now are we starting to realize that this eruption was the biggest volcanic event in human history. They have mapped the 22,000 km(2) area around the Tonga volcano. This has curiously taken place with the weakest solar minimum on record. More significantly, such a major explosion takes about one year before its true impact is understood worldwide.
Mauna Loa, which is the largest volcano in the world covers half the island of Hawaii. It has erupted 33 times since 1843 making this an average cycle of 5.4 years. It tends not to be extremely violent as many others. Hawaii’s Mauna Loa has therefore erupted for the first time in decades but nearby, Kilauea is also erupting and both on the archipelago’s Big Island. Dual eruptions haven’t been seen since 1984.
The last eruption took place in 1984, making this prolonged quiet periodthe volcano’s longest in recorded history. More interesting, it is near Kilauea which erupted in 2018. The concern is not this volcano by itself. We are looking around the world at increased volcanic activity for the danger is a volcanic winter coming on top of these shortages manufactured by COVID restrictions.
There has been activity which has been detected in Alaska under what has been an 800-year dormant volcano near Sitka known as Mount Edgecumbe. This volcano was believed to have been extinct since it has not been active for at least 800 years. Earthquakes began earlier this year.
Just in August, in Indonesia, the Anak Krakatau Volcano erupted in Seven Explosions within Two Days. It unleashed 1500-Metre-High Scorching Ash.
The Ahyi Seamount is the largest submarine volcano which lies 449 feet deep in the Pacific Ocean below the Northern Mariana Islands, which are more than 3,700 miles west of Honolulu.
Meanwhile, over in Italy, the Stromboli volcano has also erupted also during October 2022. Several explosions inside of Italy’s Stromboli volcano sent enormous plumes of smoke into the sky and major streams of lava into the Tyrrhenian Sea over the weekend.
Over in Russia, its Shiveluch volcano has become active and now a powerful explosion is considered possible at any moment. It is one of the largest in the Russian far East volcanos recorded and it has had volcanic ash plume rising up to around 13000ft altitude.
There were 5 eruptions last year around the world at 5 or higher on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). The first two eruptions here in 2022 were Bezymianny in Russia during May and Popocatépetl in Mexico during June. There was only one in 2020, but 5 during 2019. It appears we are witnessing a rise in global activity that is starting from a general major low in volcanic activity overall.
We have a string of Directional Changes between 2022 and 2025. We may be looking at rising volcanic activity into 2025. We will run our models on intensity as well. The undersea Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption of December 2021 into January 14-15, 2022 was a volcanic explosivity equivalent to VEI 5. It was an eruption of a magnitude greater than the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in The Philippines. According to a news article, the main undersea international fiber-optic communication cable that had been severed in multiple places due to the eruption had been repaired by February 21, 2022, and internet connectivity was restored the following day.
The sheer magnitudes of this eruption tends to warn that we may in fact witness a very significant rise in both the frequency of eruptions as well as the magnitude into 2025. The VEI describes the size of explosive volcanic eruptions based on magnitude and intensity. The numerical scale (from 0 to 8) is a logarithmic scale, and is therefore similar to the Richter and other magnitude scales for the size of earthquakes.
The largest eruption of magna took place at Yellowstone at Huckleberry Ridge about 2.1 million years ago. Our cycle models on Yellowstone have turned up and the “ideal” target would be in the year 2100. The difference between a VEI5 and VEI6 is a factor of 10 to 100.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 9, 2022 | Sundance
Hurricane conditions are expected from Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line along the coast in Florida tonight. However, do not focus only on the center of the storm. Hurricane winds extend 25 miles from center, tropical storm winds 400+ miles from center, and massive rain are anticipated over central Florida with significant flooding north of Lake O. Residents along coastal and inland waterways should be fully prepared for this storm. Overnight conditions will deteriorate rapidly.
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 78.9 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and into the Carolinas Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Nicole makes landfall along the Florida east coast. Nicole is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon. (more)
Many of us have spent the past 36 hrs preparing for this storm; however, my gut is telling me many are not ready for the potential flooding from Nicole. Toolboxes and supplies are loaded, and relief/recovery supplies staged south of Lake-O are prepared to move north as needed.
Now, is when the southeast and southcentral east coast needs to hunker down in safe, secure and hardened structures away from the water.
Power is likely to be lost along the coastal and near coastal areas of Florida as well as central Florida north of Lake-O. Stay inside during the storm passing and pay attention to local officials for instructions related to road closures and transit corridors.
East coast of Florida Treepers, if you find yourself in an emergency situation, feel free to reach out in the comment section or email directly.
Keep a good thought, all will be okay.
I know it is unnerving when these storms move in at night, but everything will be okay. Nicole will hopefully pass through quickly, but the rain, ground saturation and potential for flooding may be problematic for several days.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary. There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region. The sounds are scary. Try to stay calm despite the nervousness. Trees will bend and break; the sounds are dramatic.
If you are near the eyewall, there’s a specific sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget. It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar. It is very unique sound in depth and weight. Yes, within a hurricane wind has weight. Stay clear of windows and doors, and within an interior room of the house or apartment if possible.
That scary roar sounds like it won’t ever quit…. it will… eventually; but at the time you are hunkering down, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.
A hurricane wind, even a moderate one, is a constant and pure rage of wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms. Hurricane wind is heavy, it starts, builds and stays; sometimes for hours. Relentless, it just won’t let up. And then, depending on Nicole’s irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, it will stop.
Judging by the forward speed the hurricane force winds will likely last around 2 hours before she lets up.
Meanwhile, tomorrow you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your messed up neighborhood. It will all be cattywampus. Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.
I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e. Stay away from powerlines.
Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours. Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and relief trucks.
Remember, when it is safe to drive, if the power is out – every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION. Even the major intersections.
You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit. You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention. Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.
Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit. Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days or weeks. Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.
Keep a good thought. Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.
It might suck a little bit, but it will be okay. Promise.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 8, 2022 | Sundance
The counties with ballot counting issues remain consistent over years until someone steps in and fixes the root cause of the problem, democrat election officials. Nothing destroys election integrity faster than county election problems that repeat in the exact same precincts year after year.
Unfortunately, Maricopa County, Arizona, is one of those regional areas with major election integrity problems each voting cycle, this midterm 2022 election is no different.
According to multiple reports Maricopa County ballot tabulation machines are not working again. Approximately 20% of the ballot tabulation machines in Maricopa County are not working which is causing delays, frustration and voter concern over the integrity of the election. Voters have been told to leave their ballots in a box for tabulation later at a central location. Many voters are not willing to ‘trust’ the process.
ARIZONA – Vote-counting machines weren’t working in about 20% of polling sites in Maricopa County, Arizona, as Election Day voting in the midterms began, county officials said.
The Maricopa County Recorder’s Officer said technicians were called to fix the tabulator machines that weren’t working, Fox10’s TV station in Phoenix reported. It’s not clear how many of the machines were malfunctioning in the state’s most populous county.
“About 20% of the locations out there where there’s an issue with the tabulator … they try and run (completed ballots) through the tabulator, and they’re not going through,” Maricopa County Board of Supervisors chairman Bill Gates said in a video posted on Facebook. Long lines of voters were appearing throughout the county as officials tried to reassure people that all votes would be counted. (read more)
STAY IN LINE and VOTE!
Arizona,
We have the best election integrity lawyer in the country.
If you’ve *checked in* at a Maricopa County voting location where tabulators don’t work, you should *not* leave & go to another location without casting a vote. Your provisional ballot at new location likely will not count/cont’d/
If you’ve *checked in* at a Maricopa County voting location where tabulators don’t work, you should *not* leave & go to another location without casting a vote. Your provisional ballot at new location likely will not count/cont’d/
4/ and if you are leaving your ballot in the box to be tabulated later, we have trained Republican volunteers who will follow and track the transportation of these ballots and monitor their counting. This was pre-arranged given prior issues in Maricopa County. Do VOTE!
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 7, 2022
There are only two words that come to mind as I write this notice from the Ian impact zone, “mercy” and “uncle.” Prayers.
STS Nicole is anticipated to become a Cat-1 Hurricane as it approaches the southeast coast of Florida late Wednesday night. A Hurricane warning is in effect for the Northeast Bahamas, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach. Residents along the Florida east coast should watch for updates [Hurricane Center Link].
If you are on the east coast of Florida, you should begin preparations today and tomorrow for the potential of high winds, power outages, coastal storm surge and inland flooding. Georgia and South Carolina should also keep an eye on this.
Additionally, on the other side of the state, while Nicole is not anticipated to be a strong hurricane and will hopefully lose strength quickly as it moves over land, any tropical storm winds and rain along the southwest Florida areas (SWFL) previously impacted by Ian could be very troublesome. Everything is tenuously held together in SWFL and there is massive debris and structural instability present as recovery efforts continue. This is not good.
(NHC) – At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night. (more)
There is no such thing as an “easy hurricane,” only various degrees of deadly.
All coastal residents are urged to pay close attention to local officials for evacuation orders. Each locality is different, each coastal locality has a zone of potential flooding and storm surge. As a general rule, hunker down from wind – but evacuate from water.
Right now, you are in control. Do not be alarmed – but take every preventative measure your individual situation needs. Work your hurricane plan and stay focused on what you do control. Proactive planning prevents piss-poor performance. Work the plan, step by step and focus on what is in front of you. Ignore the dark imaginings and turn off the national media. Pay attention to your local officials and local media.
Do your laundry. Sanitize and stage your water storage. Inventory your supplies. Organize your tools. Fill your freezer with water jugs to take up room and freeze. Test your generator. Stage your extension cords. Stage your battery powered devices. Test your weather radio. Take small steps to prepare. Secure your home. You are in full control.
The #1 priority is to keep calm. Keep stable. If other people around you are panicked, do not let it impact your plan. Stay focused. Stay organized. Stay in control. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for everyone around you and your family.
Check your hurricane supplies of shelf-stable food, water, medicine and don’t forget pets. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Everything is replaceable, except you and your family. We have a lot of Treepers in the path of this storm. If you need assistance, use the comments section of any ‘Update thread’ to reach out, or use the email address in the upper right of the site.
Right now, you are in control. Have a solid plan, work that plan – stay busy, and don’t get caught up in the hysteria. Try to avoid national media hype. Stay updated via your local news stations. Reach out to your neighbors; touch-base and check to see if they are okay or need anything. Community restoration begins before the storm arrives. Look out for each-other.
Regarding any evacuation plan, please pay attention to your local officials who will be coordinating with state Dept. of Transportation. As the path and impact zone of the storm becomes more predictable your local officials will alert to best route(s) for evacuation. For those in the cone of uncertainty; remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead.
DAY ONE (Today)
Determine Your Risk
Make a Written Plan
Develop an Evacuation Plan
Inventory hurricane/storm supplies.
Withdraw cash based on plan/need.
Get gas and storm supplies
DAY TWO (Tue)
Get Storm Update
Assemble and purchase any missing Hurricane Supplies
Contact Insurance Company – Updates
Secure Important Papers.
Update/upload your phone data.
Strengthen and Secure Your Home
Discuss Evacuation Decision with your Family.
Fill freezer with 3/4 full water jugs.
DAY THREE (Wed)
Get Storm Update
Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update
Finish last minute preparation
Plan for a minimum of THREE DAYS without power
Assist Your Neighbors
If Needed – Evacuate Your Family
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Communication is important. Update your friends and family contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed.
Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.
Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status. Fill car with gasoline. Review prescriptions, refill if needed.
Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storm’s path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.
Consider travel plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.
One possible proactive measure is to make a hotel reservation further inland that you would consider evacuating to. Follow updates of the storms’ progress; make reservations if determined; you can always cancel if not needed. It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance. Being proactive reduces stress. Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go. Trust me, it’s worth it. Protect your family.
If you are in the SWFL region where Hurricane Ian cleanup and recovery is still underway, just do the best you can to keep the debris in check as potential tropical storm force winds will be a major pain in the a**! Heavy sigh. ::spit::
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 31, 2022 | sundance
In a previous update I noted the scale of debris cleanup ongoing as an outcome of Hurricane Ian. Several people made inquiries wanting to better understand the overall magnitude. So, I took some pictures today to share.
According to one of the debris contractor officials I incidentally bumped into, he shared how the debris cleanup was bid to the municipal regions using an actuarial formula from prior disaster recovery. It’s a pretty interesting, albeit heartbreaking, formula and overall process to understand.
After a geographic region is identified, an interim helicopter flight by specifically trained experts in the industry of debris removal is conducted. The general statistics applied to the contracts are for seven years’ worth of normal debris in the municipal region.
Meaning whatever tonnage is normally accumulated in municipal trash pickup over a year (garbage and recycling), that tonnage number is then multiplied by seven, and that’s the amount of debris anticipated during the initial hurricane debris removal. Seven years’ worth of ‘trash’.
More pictures below to help understand.
♦DEBRIS – The scale of physical debris is jaw dropping. FEMA reimburses local municipalities for the first 30 days of debris removal effort and costs. The 30-day limit is intended as a financial incentive to kick municipalities into fast action. This incentive is not a bad concept. Factually, it’s one of the better FEMA legislative standards because it forces local government to act quickly. However, the scale of what they are trying to do is just intense.
The various municipal governments in the severe impact zones appear to have a strategy to use the 30-day window to just collect as much as possible in interim geographic locations. Large empty lots (example below) are being utilized as fast dumps for massive piles of debris in this 30-day window. A claw truck can make a dozen fast runs (per day) locally to these interim dump sites, as opposed to driving long distances to landfills 30 to 50 miles away.
One of these 10-acre dump sites is less than a mile from me. I do not know how many of these exist; however, to see a full ten acres piled high with 10 to 20′ of debris gives me a sense of the scale of damage in this one small area within a region that must have hundreds of these interim sites. I have been to a dozen post-hurricane recovery areas and never seen debris like this.
Everything from destroyed construction material, to home furnishings, beds, appliances, parts of boats, roof parts, toys, patio furniture, pieces of cars, clothing, you name it, it’s all there. All now defined under the term “debris.” However, each piece of debris representing the former life of a family impacted by this storm. The trucks just keep coming, day and night 24/7. [Logistics tower for one 10-acre collection site pictured below]
In the bigger picture, when you think about what is represented, it’s a sullen site to bear witness to… Any person of reasonable Christian disposition would just cry. They have fenced off these interim dumping sites, and they have erected lights and temporary crane towers to seemingly assist the logistics of what goes where, but my God the scale of it is humbling. This is just one site utilized for an area of what seems to be approximately 5 square miles. Expand that scale to hundreds of similar 10-acre sites. Yeah, tears.
Eventually I assume these interim sites will be cleared one truckload at a time to the inner state landfills and recycle facilities. That phase will likely take years.
That’s a small snapshot.
Multiple those images times several thousand streets and similar areas.
Now you know what things look like.
Now you also know why Starfish Kid stays focused on the two feet in front of him…
…. If you look up for too long, the whispers of despair will try to get you.
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