Posted originally on the CTH on October 9, 2024 | Sundance

Hurricane Milton is traveling at a forward speed around 17 mph. With winds near 120 mph the eye of the storm is roughly 70 miles wide (35 miles from center). The storm is wavering in strength but should be anticipated to maintain this intensity as it makes landfall tonight.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting just south of the Tampa Bay area as the most likely location for landfall. A few miles in any direction can make a big difference with this track. The greatest storm surge potential is south of the eyewall, extending well below the impact zone. Those who encounter the eye will likely be in strong hurricane force winds for 3 hours.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches). (more)

While a strong wind threat exists for the Tampa Bay area, residents south of the impact zone should prepare for a long duration storm surge event.

Posted originally on the CTH on October 9, 2024 | Sundance 

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis gives an update on state preparations for Hurricane Milton.  There is a strong state emphasis on fuel supplies and alternatives from Port of Tampa to ensure fuel is available.  This is a very prudent approach.

Emergency debris cleanup operations were able to remove approximately 50% of all roadside debris from hurricane Helene.  To give you an idea of scale, during each hurricane landfall event the average of debris created equals 7 years of cumulative debris.  Meaning, each hurricane creates 7 years of debris in the impact zone.  Getting that moved out quickly is a monumental task.  FEMA reimburses the municipal region for the first 10 days debris removal post storm; this reimbursement window provides the county with motivation to get it done fast.

34 search and rescue teams from around the country have joined in staging areas alongside Florida groups.  There are expected to be 50,000 linemen in place for electrical grid restoration; this is the largest grid recovery mobilization in history.  500 state police from outside Florida have arrived to help in law enforcement post storm.  I am critical of DeSantis and his always political crew around him; however, when it comes to emergency leadership Governor Ron DeSantis does a great job. WATCH:

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We will continue to monitor election events as well as national news events that are pertinent and continue posting articles.

I am also going to provide a link to livestreams below.  Clockwise from top left.  (1) Tampa Bay – rotating cam.  (2) Key West – the southernmost point closest to current storm. (3) Matlacha Bridge between Cape Coral and Pine Island. (4) Central Cape Coral amid one of the many canals.

Hurricane Milton, which was a Category 4 storm as of early Wednesday, is threatening the Tampa metro area — which has a population of more than 3.3 million people. Milton has the potential to be a direct hit and menacing the same stretch of coastline that was battered by Helene.  Milton is also threatening the same area that was hit hard by Hurricane Ian in 2022.

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Posted originally on the CTH on October 9, 2024 | Sundance 

By now I am assuming many people on the West and Southwest coast of Florida are either evacuated or staying put.  With approximately 12 hours before deteriorating conditions arrive, I have been asked for some last-minute advice.  [Full Prep Here]

Here’s the key part. Do not allow your mind to listen to the dark imaginings that create fear, stress and panic.  Stay busy, do stuff, you will find that taking an action-oriented approach will calm your mind.  Don’t just sit around and think about dark thoughts.

Yes, it is still possible to do some preparations – here is a quick recap of what you can look at in the final 12 hours of you are planning to hunker down.  Keep occupied.

♦ Change the voicemail message on your cell phone to let people know your plans. EXAMPLE:  “Hey, you’ve reached Sam, I’m ok and currently preparing for Hurricane Milton. Leave me a message and I’ll get back to you when possible.”  …..  After the storm, in an effort to reassure family, and in a method to preserve battery life on your phone, change the message again.  “Hey, you’ve reached Sam, I AM OKAY after the hurricane, and I am safe. If you leave a message, my reply may be delayed.”   This is one simple way to communicate to your friends and family, so they know you are okay.

Communication is important. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed. You can see the importance of this communication plan, from the recent results of the emergency in Western North Carolina. Tell your family who your primary contact person is, then tell that contact person your exact plans. That contact person then becomes the information hub for you that relays information to your family and friends.

♦ Clean up your documents. Organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers etc., and place them in ziploc bags, in a safe place. Some have suggested the dishwasher as a waterproof storage place.

♦ Secure your garage door. You can always tell those people who have been through direct hurricane impacts by how they parked their cars. I now include this information in all hurricane prep because it makes such a difference. If you lose your Florida garage door you will more than likely lose your roof. That’s just the reality of having a massive opening in your structure to 100 – 150 mph winds that could lift the trusses.

If you have two vehicles, put one vehicle inside the garage with the front bumper against the door to help stop the flex (do this carefully). Put the other vehicle outside blocking the garage door facing down the driveway or facing parallel to the garage. The goal is to use the aero dynamics of the car to push the wind away from the door and provide protection.

A cheap car cover can be used to protect the outside vehicle and/or use old blankets (cable ties, bungee cords) to stop the outside vehicle from getting sandblasted and destroyed. Place double folded corrugated cardboard in front of the radiator to protect it from storm debris.

You might still have time for this one.  If you live in a flood zone, or if you are concerned about storm surge, take your #1 car to the nearest airport or hotel with a parking garage and park in the upper levels. Take an cab/uber back home if you don’t have a friend or partner to help you. This way you know you will have one workable vehicle, just in case.

♦ Wash and sanitize the bathtub. Then fill the bathtub with water. AND/Or put three 30-gallon trash cans in the shower and fill them with water before the storm. This will give you 90 gallons of water for cooking and personal hygiene. You will also need water to manually flush your toilets. Bottled water is great for drinking, hydrating and toothbrushing, but you will need much more potable water if the municipal supply is compromised or broken. Use a bucket to flush your toilets with water from the tub, trash cans or pool.

♦ Bring in your patio furniture or throw it in the swimming pool. Put a heavy dose of chlorine in the pool now to compensate for the filter pump not working if the power goes out. Run the pump until the power goes out. Swimming pools can quickly turn into algae ponds following a hurricane.

♦ Remember, a standard 6,500-to-8,500-watt generator will run for approximately 8 hours on five gallons of gasoline.   If the power goes out, do not run it all the time.  Relax until it is safe to go outside and turn it on.  Turn it on, chill the fridge, make coffee, use the microwave or charge stuff, then turn it off.  Do this in 4-hour shifts and the fridge will be ok and your gasoline will last longer.  Gasoline is a scarce and rare commodity in the aftermath of a hurricane.  Gas stations don’t work without power.  Check the oil in the generator every few days.  Also, have a can of quick start or butane available in case the generator starts acting up.

♦ Do all of your laundry before the hurricane hits.  You will likely not have the ability again for a few weeks.  Your clothes washing machine is also a solid place to put ice where you don’t have to worry about melt.

♦ Cook meals in advance of the hurricane. Store in fridge so you can microwave for a meal.  Eating a constant diet of sandwiches gets old after the first week.  If you have a generator, you can use the microwave and coffee pot.

♦ Turn down the temp on your freezer now. Fill all empty space in your freezer or deep freeze with bottles of water. [You can also use some versions of Ziploc bags] Make sure you remove some water before positioning to allow room for ice expansion.  Use small bottles of water to fill small spaces. You can drink this water post storm but use it to fill space and help your freezer maintain temp during any power outage.

♦ You can also place a tall glass filled with water in the middle shelf of the Freezer. Let the water freeze. Before evacuating place a coin on top of the ice. If the coin is at the bottom of the glass when you return, throw out everything inside the fridge. That means the temp was compromised too long. Generally speaking, if you do not open the freezer door you have about 12 hrs safe food storage before you need to carefully evaluate.

♦ Check your radios and battery-operated devices to make sure they work.  Preset your broadcast channel to the one you feel most comfortable with.

It is very important to remain calm and stable.  This helps those around you as well as animals.  An approaching Hurricane is stressful, but it will be okay.  Do not allow your thoughts to turn toward fear and worry.  Instead, focus on proactive action that empowers you to prepare.

Say prayers for peace of mind and reassurance. You are NOT alone:

Heavenly Father, please grant me peace of mind and help calm my nerves. Our worldly worries are like a turbulent sea; and we need a very blessed balance that only You can provide.  We reach out to You for stability.

Dearest Lord, help me if I stumble and begin to worry. Give me the strength and clarity of mind to remain purposefully calm for my family. Keep my mind, spirit, words and deeds upon a clear path toward You. We trust Your Love God and know that You will provide calm amid this stress.

Just as Your sun rises each day against the darkest of nights; bring us clarity with Your light and grace.

In Your most merciful name, I pray.  ~ Amen.

Everything will be okay.

Posted originally on the CTH on October 9, 2024 | Sundance 

UPDATE:  My apologies for the prior update, too little sleep. Hurricane Milton 8:00am advisory. All interests in the Tampa area and South to Fort Myers/Naples should pay attention.

Today is the final day for any storm preparation. Conditions will deteriorate tonight as Milton approaches land. The exact location of impact is not yet defined. It looks like Sarasota Bradenton is in the bullseye. Information from the National Hurricane Center puts the predicted path at/near Tampa. Trust me, on this one a few miles will make all the difference.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.8 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 915 mb (27.02 inches). (more)

High tide in Tampa (Hillsborough) is at 6:11am tomorrow Thursday.  Unfortunately, a rising tide overnight can enhance the impact of storm surge. The total of the eyewall is currently 60 miles (30 miles from center). That’s an average buzzsaw in relative terms.  This one is slightly smaller than Ian (’22) in size and but moving faster 16mph. Keep praying for this one to get torn apart by windshear.

Evacuations and final preparations should be rushed to completion. Everyone must be in their hunker down location by evening. .

A forward speed of 16 mph will hopefully maintain so that Milton moves fast and does not have the additional opportunity to build energy from the Gulf of Mexico.  However, this is a very dangerous storm.

60-mile buzzsaw, 16 mph forward speed equals 4-hour duration for those with direct impact.  The storm surge (southern quadrant) will last approximately 2 additional hours to apex.

If you have ever heard the roof getting shredded (shingles ripping upward), you know the sound of bowling balls atop your house.  This is what should be expected for those who encounter the eyewall for any significant amount of time.

CTH will have more information as updates come available.  Coastal residents from Tampa south should have moved or are in the process of moving to areas without the worry of storm surge.

There is a lot of stress amid the population.  Remember to breathe, pray, calm yourself and think positively about events.  Focus on what you can do and stay calm amid crises.  It will be okay.

Keep praying for Milton to encounter significant upper-level winds from the North which can hamper its ability to strengthen.