President Trump enters a new phase in legislative road-blocking fraught with challenges inside the Senate chamber.  Almost all U.S. Republican Senators have accepted the indulgences of U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue.

President Trump now relies on the upper chamber to consent on the America-First trade deals he has been renegotiating.  Simultaneously, Donohue and McConnell plot how to best utilize their increased influence over the executive branch…. [Romney was the first shot]

A tempered response does not come as a surprise given the landscape.

How President Trump is able to get Republicans in the Senate to support renegotiated trade deals they have been paid to oppose will be an interesting dynamic to watch.

These trade deals and the fundamental economic policy behind MAGAnomics is the most centrally important aspect to President Trump’s mission in DC.

The fight is about control over U.S. economy.  Mitch McConnell and his Decepticon caucus will be supporting Wall Street; and only President Trump will be fighting for Main Street.

This is the political dynamic to watch.

It’s about the money.

It is always about the money.

Look at the republican senators who are aligned against the removal of NAFTA (that list includes McConnell)…. and we will easily identify those senators who have been paid to protect the interests of U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue.

(Link to 2018 Lobbyist Results)

In Mexico, Central and South America they call it “corruption” and/or “bribery”; in the United States our politicians call it “lobbying”, the process is identical.

Remember, only a few days ago Mitch McConnell still held the Senate in open session to block President Trump from making any recess appointments over the holidays.  That parliamentary scheme requires unanimous support in the upper chamber in order for it to apply.  All 100 senators must agree to hold the session in limbo.

It only takes one senator to break ranks and say no, and that parliamentary trick doesn’t work.   One republican senator could have allowed President Trump to use recess appointments for Ambassador appointments and/or cabinet appointments.

You’ll note not one senator broke ranks.

CTH previously outlined the likely path Democrats will follow when they take control of the key congressional committees starting tomorrow {Go Deep}.  For those who walk through the deep weeds of DC politics, the sequence of 2019 events -based on accepting the historic resistance pattern- is entirely predictable.

Today, Fox News confirms the intention of Jerry Nadler (House Judiciary), Elijah Cummings (House Oversight) and Adam Schiff (HPSCI) as soon as they are sworn into office:

WASHINGTON DC – They’re about to get subpoena power – and they plan to use it.

As Democrats officially take back control of the House when the new Congress is seated Thursday, newly empowered House Committee chairmen are preparing to launch a slew of Trump administration investigations.

[…]  In a press release Wednesday, Cummings said his committee plans to “investigate waste, fraud, and abuse in the Trump Administration,” as well as “other issues that affect the American people every day.”  (read more)

There are three important congressional events likely in the first quarter of 2019. The sequencing of those events will be the key to understanding the “Resistance” political year.

(House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – New House General Counsel Douglas Letter)

The baseline is that Democrat leadership are cunning political strategists; and have likely already drawn out the big picture road-map with details to be filled in as they proceed.

• The first event is the congressional use of Michael Cohen for a series of public committee hearings. [Oversight (Elijah Cummings) and possibly -though less likely- Judiciary (Nadler) and HPSCI (Schiff)] This likely has to happen before March 6th, 2019, when Cohen is scheduled to enter federal prison. It’s almost certain Cohen’s incarceration deferment contains the unwritten agreement to appear. [Democrat leadership almost certainly coordinated this plan with team Mueller and the SDNY some time ago.]
• The second event is the release of the Team Mueller political report which, despite its inability to find criminal wrongdoing, will most certainly be written with highly charged innuendo as damaging to President Trump as possible. The release of this report will absolutely fuel several public committee hearings [Oversight/Reform (Cummings), HPSCI (Schiff) and Judiciary (Nadler)] without any doubt.
• The third event is the release of the OIG Horowitz report on possible FISA abuse. Due to the nature of Mueller’s proprietary investigative blackout (Horowitz not allowed to see investigative material or witnesses with Mueller probe ongoing), the Horowitz report will likely come out *after* Mueller.

That’s the three key events the Democrats and media will be most likely to exploit for maximum political benefit in the first quarter of 2019. The sequence between Mueller and Horowitz might reverse (though unlikely and I’ll explain later). Other investigative resistance paths will spur from these three primary Q1 events.

Again, there is very little doubt the approach has already been mapped out in post-election meetings between: Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, the Democrat committee heads, allies in the lawfare community, political allies inside the executive branch (IC, DOJ, FBI etc.), along with feedback from political networks, DNC (Perez) and major resistance donors.

The real trick to discovering the plan (as early as possible) will be to spot the signals that will tell us where they are going before they shift in their planned direction. Example: We already know Michael Cohen is a key starting point (aforementioned reasons).

To better understand the Resistance landscape, next let’s look at: (1) the most reasonable predictions for committee structure; (2) the new Gang of Eight line-up; and (3) the broad political alliances that are also predictable.

♦Key Committee Structure – The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) will likely be Chairman Adam Schiff and ranking member Devin Nunes. The House Judiciary Committee will be Chaired by Jerry Nadler and ranking member Doug Collins. The House Oversight and Reform Committee will be Chairman Elijah Cummings and ranking member Jim Jordan.

♦Gang of Eight (IC Oversight) – The Go8 line-up will be radically different in 2019 and far more adversarial to the executive branch. Ranked by influence over IC:

1. Nancy Pelosi (D) – Speaker of House.
2. Adam Schiff (D) – Chair, HPSCI
3. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) – Senate Majority Leader
4. Senator Richard Burr (R) – Chair, SSCI
5. Kevin McCarthy (R) – Minority Leader House.
6. Senator Chuck Schumer (D) – Senate Minority Leader
7. Devin Nunes (R) – Ranking Member HPSCI
8. Senator Mark Warner (D) – Vice Chair, SSCI

♦The Broad Political Alliances – Overlaying the DC political alliances within the intelligence community Gang of Eight you see a resistance ratio of 7:1 against the executive branch.

Pelosi, Schiff, McConnell, Burr, McCarthy, Schumer and Warner all allied with the overall UniParty resistance objective; and only Devin Nunes as an ally to the White House. That’s a ration of 7:1 in favor of “The DC Resistance” against the Executive Branch.

That’s the landscape.

So if we take the first quarter resistance events/narratives (¹Cohen appearance, ²Mueller Report and ³Horowitz report); and we overlay what has already surfaced; we can then begin to get a picture of how things will reasonably be expected to play out.

SC Robert Mueller (the team, not the person) and DAG Rod Rosenstein have already explained to POTUS Trump that if he attempts any declassification of documents currently part of Mueller’s investigative purview (that’s literally everything and/or anything they lay claim to), the Special Counsel investigative unit will consider that interference with their investigation of him (President Trump). That threat, and the advice of White House lawyers (prior counsel no longer present), led to Trump backing down in September:

[Obviously “speed” is a relative term, it’s soon to be 4 months]

So it stands to reason if they (Rosenstein, Mueller, etc.) are telling the president he can’t take any action,…. common sense says the same general ‘hands-off‘ principle would apply to DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz; who is ultimately under much more of the institutional DOJ control system than President Trump.

See the issue? As time progresses, and with hindsight as a corruption guide, it becomes more clear how Robert Mueller has been playing his cards. Horowitz is frozen in place by an inability to see evidence until Mueller says he’s finished with his investigation.

[While it is absolutely blood-boiling to witness, that professional DOJ hoodwinking -the inherent ‘catch 22‘- is the administrative state doing some of its finest work. See the scale of it? There’s no-one to technically hold accountable, it’s the system self-actuated. This is an example of why you can never be cynical enough when it comes to DC.]

The Democrats take control on January 3rd, 2019  – they will likely utilize the first two weeks of compliant media coverage to spike the football and position maximum demoralization toward their new minority party republican colleagues.

The Democrats will have to balance the level of smug condescension (which the media and their base are looking forward to) with their visible faux-apoplexy toward the current appropriations battle and government shut down. They will pat the republicans on the head and position themselves as the professionals in charge now.

If we extend the sequencing with all the above in mind it looks like the House Oversight Committee (Cummings) and House Judiciary Committee (Nadler) will likely kick the resistance operation into action (after Superbowl) with Michael Cohen’s scheduled appearances broadcast on television for the better part of two weeks use.

That first phase event will likely be followed by a late Feb/early March dropping of the Mueller report. There will be a grand lead-in, roll-out and press spectacle designed for maximum exposure. The tail end of that phase will lead to more hearings throughout March perhaps into early April with subpoenas based on the report framework.

Again, remember these are Democrats. This stuff is already planned out in the broad strokes. The upcoming congressional calendar has all of these events considered. Pelosi and Schumer have told their key underlings of preliminary vacation blackout dates etc. Nothing professional democrats do is without specific intent, purposeful design and well communicated organization. This is what they do. This is all they do.

While these events are happening the HPSCI will be demanding discovery from the White House and intelligence apparatus that will be spurred by Cohen and Mueller. The DOJ and FBI will find a new interest in congressional compliance especially given the House General Counsel, Douglas Letter, is one of their allied Resistance members.

On the positive side for Team Trump, once Mueller actually presents a report – his operational leverage over the White House will be effectively over.

Mueller (the team, not the individual) will be handing the Resistance baton to their allies in congress; and the team will then set off for a well indulged, stunningly compensated, media tour which will likely include numerous advanced offers from Hollywood types for movie rights. Most of them will enjoy job offers from major networks and political allies.