Posted Dec 20, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Dear Mr Armstrong, you recently wrote that if you are in any bond fund, better get out. Do you also mean corporate short-term/medium-term bonds or are those expected to rise when people realise government debt is the real bubble ?

Kind regards.

WL.

QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong- I enjoyed my first WEC immensely! In the blog and other place’s you warned that you should get out of bond funds. I understand government bonds of all kinds should be sold including date certain and funds. I am curious though about high-quality corporate bond funds. Should one get out of corporate bond funds and move to individual issues? The funds are easier for a working person of course.

Thank you,

ANSWER: We are entering a phase of rising interest rates, so bond funds will do poorly. We are not yet at a stage where U.S. government bonds would default or be swapped. Therefore, my recommendation has only to do with rising rates. What you should do is stay short-term, like 90-day paper or less, be it corporate or government. This is just an interest rate play moving into 2018.

As we move into 2018, we will look at corporate vs government shift. That will become the play, but that will most likely unfold after we begin to see serious problems with government debt outside the United States. In Japan, the ownership of public debt by the private sector is in freefall. Debt to GDP held by the private sector before Abe came to power was 177%, which had collapsed to 100% in 2012, and has continued to decline to about 75%. The Bank of Japan through its quantitative easing now owns more government debt than the private sector. Japan is in VERY SERIOUS trouble and there is no possible way to reverse this nightmare.

The European Central Bank now holds 15% of Germany’s national debt. The central banks have been running out of positive-yielding safe-haven bonds. Yes, the Federal Reserve holds $2.4 trillion is less than 10%. The volume of repo loans using Treasury debt as collateral has collapsed from $2.6 trillion to about $1.8 trillion according to Barclays.

Despite all the complaints that QE has failed, we must ask how deep deflation would be without it. True, QE has not produced inflation. It has not stimulated the economies of Europe or Japan because the confidence of the people is not there. The central banks are trapped and politicians, not hedge fund managers, run government. These people are ignorant at best if not outright deaf, dumb, and stupid. They cannot see how this system of government borrowing will continue if the public no longer buys their debt.

This is by no means going to end nicely. So keep the power dry. We are in for a real crisis come 2018

Dec 20 2016

Proof the Press is Rigged

Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Dec 20, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am fairly new to your blog. I was told by two friends that you said not just that Trump would win and Brexit, but that the stock market would breakout to new highs and gold would decline for more than the last two years. I followed most of the big names who all said the stock market was going to crash and gold would rise. I argued against my friends these past years only to see they and you were right.

Upon reflection, I have concluded that indeed the press is rigged for they put the same people on TV talking about the markets who are never right. The mere fact the major press is not giving you any credit for being the only one out there who has forecast gold, stock market, fall of the euro, and politics flawlessly, made me realize one thing. They cannot possibly be independent in the media or they would be interviewing you and asking how did you do this. That would then lead to a discussion about your AI computer and which would then cause people to think again how do these things really work. So it is obvious. They cannot give you credit without discrediting themselves. That would mean they do not have the power to manipulate society as they hoped for as illustrated by Brexit and the Trump victory.

Stay safe. You are sweeping the cobwebs from our stale thinking process.

REPLY: Perhaps you are right. The only major press that I do interviews with are outside the USA. Even the Barron’s article back in 2011 that reported we were calling for new record highs did not call me for an interview. I believe it was more of a tongue-in-cheek report because they never expected that forecast to be correct.

Overseas, I was asked to teach at one of the top five universities in the world. When I asked if they were aware of my situation, they said, “Oh yes. We reviewed your case and it appears to have been ‘stitched up.’” in a very British way of putting it. Others said it merely proved that I was not one of the corrupt b*****ds from New York so they knew they could trust me. Still, others said, “How can they keep you in contempt for 6 years after Republic/HSBC pled guilty and received no jail time, provided they returned all the money they stole to your clients?” The simple math shows they could not hold me in contempt when it was impossible for me to owe anything.

The fact that not a single major newspaper in the USA would dare call the banks or government into question when it was so obvious to the rest of the world proves this is not a real free press. Heck, they blocked the movie “The Forecaster” from playing in the USA and Switzerland, which tends to show how in-bed the press really is with government and the banks. The only two countries where the film was blocked is where the banks dominate the government.

The press gave it their best shot to rig the election for Hillary. They lost big time, for they blew all their own credibility on this one. You are right. The mainstream press could never interview me fairly without calling into question their own integrity. We just have to wait until the whole thing collapses and the press is freed from all this corruption. It will come. Let’s see who will be first.

Dec 19 2016

Donald Trump Seals Electoral College Victory, Officially Becomes 45th US President with 304 votes or 56.6%

by Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge Dec 19, 2016 5:32 PM

It’s finally over: Donald Trump has secured 304 Electoral Votes following the Texas vote (with 2 faithless electors), officially securing the presidency of the United States. Of course, the now official President-Elect Trump took to twitter to confirm the victory:

Texas’ 36 electoral votes for Trump pushed him over the edge at around 4:30 Central Time, even though two rogue electors’ defections deprived Trump of one of those votes. That gave Trump 304 total electoral votes.

A quick recap of the day’s events from the WSJ:

Members of the Electoral College meeting in state capitals across the country on Monday confirmed President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 election, ending a last-ditch campaign to deny him the presidency. Mr. Trump amassed at least 270 electoral votes on Monday afternoon—enough to officially become the president-elect over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, according to a tally of votes by the Associated Press.

Typically just a formality, this year’s Electoral College vote attracted an outsize amount of attention after a group of mostly Democratic electors made a late push to block Mr. Trump’s path to the White House. They argued the Electoral College had a constitutional duty to act independently of the will of the voters in extraordinary circumstances. Protesters gathered in several state capitols across the country to encourage electors to reject Mr. Trump.

Four Democratic electors in Washington state broke ranks—with three casting ballots for former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and one for Native American activist Faith Spotted Eagle. In the vice presidential vote, the Washington vote was even more unusual, with electors casting votes for a trio of female U.S. senators: Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Maria Cantwell of Washington and Susan Collins of Maine. Another elector cast a ballot for Winona LaDuke, an environmental activist.

Several other attempts by electors to cast ballots failed. The Associated Press reported that attempts by Democratic electors in Colorado and Maine to vote for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders failed. In Maine, the elector was ordered to vote again, while in Colorado an elector was replaced.

The final count:

304 Trump
228 Clinton
3 Powell
1 Kasich/ Paul
1 FAITH SPOTTED EAGLE

The statement released by the GOP on Trump’s victory:

* * *

Earlier:

For those following today’s Electoral College vote, here is the latest vote tally as of 4:50pm ET:

268 electoral votes had been cast for Trump,
160 electoral votes had been cast for Hillary Clinton.

Moments ago, Montana cast 3 votes for Donald Trump which means he is two Electoral votes away from being elected president of the United States.

Those looking for surprises in today’s vote will be disappointed, at least so far: All of the electors in Indiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Arizona, Louisiana, Ohio, Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Alabama, Idaho, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Florida, Michigan, Utah, Wyoming, Missouri and North Dakota voted for Trump, as per their states’ votes on Election Day. Illinois, Vermont, Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Oregon have all backed Clinton, in line with their states’ votes.

Trump also won a vote from one of Maine’s two congressional districts, which awards a vote to the popular vote winner. Clinton received the other three, as per the results on Election Day. Eight of Washington state’s 12 electors voted for Clinton–but four went rogue, two voting for Colin Powell and two voting for “faith spotted eagle” according to the AP, as reported earlier.

* * *

Courtesy of AJC, here is a running tally of who has voted so far, and how, as well as any notable incidents during the day.

Texas cast all but 2 of their 38 Electoral votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 5:30 PM EST Donald Trump has been elected president as he passes 270 Electoral votes.
Dec 19, 2016 5:19 PM EST Texas should be reporting its vote in minutes, according to reports.
Dec 19, 2016 4:54 PM EST Nevada has cast 6 votes for Hillary Clinton
Dec 19, 2016 4:54 PM EST Nevada has cast 6 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 4:52 PM EST California will begin voting at 5 p.m. ET. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in California.
Dec 19, 2016 4:44 PM EST Montana has cast 3 votes for Donald Trump. He is two Electoral votes away from being elected president of the United States.
Dec 19, 2016 4:36 PM EST From the Associated Press: “A couple of hundred protesters are gathering outside the California state Capitol ahead of Monday’s Electoral College meeting.”
Dec 19, 2016 4:30 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 265 votes; Hillary Clinton has 160 votes. There are 109 votes pending.
Dec 19, 2016 4:25 PM EST Iowa cast 6 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 4:12 PM EST From The Associated Press: “Democrat Hillary Clinton received eight votes, former Secretary of State Colin Powell got three, and Faith Spotted Eagle, an elder in the Yankton Dakota tribe, got one. Clinton won the state’s popular vote.”
Dec 19, 2016 4:10 PM EST Prior to the vote of the last handful of states — Texas included — the only faithless electors have been Democrats.
Dec 19, 2016 4:08 PM EST Massachusetts cast 11 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec. 19, 2016 4:05 PM EST Iowa, Montana and Nevada began voting at 4 p.m. ET.
Dec 19, 2016 3:59 PM EST Alaska has cast 3 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 3:49 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 256 Electoral votes; Hillary Clinton has 135 votes. There are 143 votes pending.
Dec 19, 2016 3:46 PM EST New Jersey cast 14 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 3:47 PM EST Four Democratic voters in Washington chose not to vote for Hillary Clinton, becoming “faithless” voters. Clinton took the other 8 votes in the state. Three Democratic electors have tried to be “faithless” by not voting for Clinton. One in Maine, one in Minnesota and one in Colorado. Those votes were changed and registered for Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 3:42 PM EST Colorado has cast 9 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 3:29 PM EST Nebraska electors cast 5 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 3:22 PM EST Missouri has cast 10 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 3:10 PM EST The Maine elector who voted for Bernie Sanders has his vote ruled “improper.” He has switched the vote to Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 3:03 PM EST Voting began at 3 p.m. in Alaska, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Texas and Washington.
Dec 19, 2016 2:50 PM EST The Second District of Maine cast 3 votes for Hillary Clinton. The First District of Maine cast 1 vote for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 2:48 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 240 Electoral votes; Hillary Clinton has 115. There are 183 pending.
Dec 19, 2016 2:37 PM EST Oregon has cast 7 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 2:34 PM EST From the AP: “Maine Democratic elector casts vote for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders for president instead of Hillary Clinton.”
Dec 19, 2016 2:32 PM EST Ohio cast 18 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 2:31 PM EST Wyoming cast 3 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 2:25 PM EST New Mexico cast 5 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 2:25 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 224 votes; Hillary Clinton has 103 votes. There are 211 votes pending. A candidate needs 270 votes to be elected president.
Dec 19, 2016 2:22 PM EST Electors in North Dakota cast 3 votes; Idaho cast 4 votes; Utah cast 6 votes and Kansas cast 6 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec. 19, 2016 2:21 PM EST Florida cast 29 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 2:21 PM EST Michigan casts 16 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 2:19 PM EST Minnesota cast 10 votes for Hillary Clinton after Muhammad Abdurrahan, a “faithless voter” refused to vote for her and was replaced by an alternate
Dec 19, 2016 2:10 PM EST The Michigan electors have asked to read a statement into the record.
Dec 19, 2016 2:00 PM EST At 2 p.m. ET, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming will begin voting.
Dec 19, 2016 1:47 PM EST From the AP: Protesters shouted, cried and even sang “Silent Night” as Wisconsin’s 10 presidential electors cast their ballots for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 1:45 PM EST Minnesota elector refuses to vote for Hillary Clinton, is dismissed under state law; alternative will vote instead
Dec 19, 2016 1:44 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 179 votes; Hillary Clinton has 93 votes. There are 266 votes pending.
Dec 19, 2016 1:32 PM EST Alabama has cast 9 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 1:28 PM EST All 10 Maryland electors cast their vote for Hillary Clinton via voice vote.
Dec 19, 2016 1:21 PM EST Wisconsin has cast 10 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 1:20 PM EST Kansas has cast 6 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 1:15 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 154 votes; Hillary Clinton has 83 votes. There are 301 votes pending.
Dec 19, 2016 1:14 PM EST Louisiana has cast 8 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 1:12 PM EST Oklahoma has cast seven votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 1:10 PM EST South Dakota has cast 3 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 1:07 PM EST Former President Bill Clinton was the first person to cast a ballot for his wife in New York’s Electoral College vote.
Dec 19, 2016 1:01 PM EST Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota and Wisconsin began the Electoral College voting process at 1 p.m.
Dec 19, 2016 12:59 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 125 votes; Hillary Clinton has 83. There are 330 votes pending.
Dec 19, 2016 12:58 PM EST Virginia has cast 13 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 12:56 PM EST Applause then boos in Pennsylvania state house as announcement of 20 votes for Donald Trump is made. Yelling continues from those in the gallery.
Dec 19, 2016 12:50 PM EST The Boston Globe is reporting that an elector from Maine intends to vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders. No vote from Maine recorded yet.
Dec 19, 2016 12:47 PM EST Rhode Island cast all it votes – 4- for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 12:45 PM EST North Carolina has cast 15 votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 12:44 PM EST New York has cast 29 votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 12:42 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 90 votes; Hillary Clinton has 37 votes. There are 411 votes left to be cast.
Dec 19, 2016 12:39 PM EST Delaware and Connecticut have cast 3 votes, and 7 votes, respectively, for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 12:37 PM EST Georgia has cast 16 has for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 12:30 PM EST The count: Trump has 74 votes; Clinton has 27 votes
Dec 19, 2016 12:21 PM EST Arizona cast 11 Electoral votes for Donald Trump.
Dec. 19, 2016 12:15 PM EST Indiana cast 11 votes Electoral votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 12:09 PM EST Thus far, all electors have voted as pledged.
Dec 19, 2016 12:05 PM EST Set to vote at noon are: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Virginia.
Dec 19, 2016 12:02 PM EST Pennsylvania has 20 Electoral votes. Donald Trump won the state on Nov. 8.
Dec 19, 2016 11:49 AM EST Pennsylvania will be voting at the top of the hour.
Dec 19, 2016 11:33 AM EST The count: Donald Trump 55; Hillary Clinton 27
Dec. 19, 2016 11:32 AM EST Vermont has cast 3 votes for Hillary Clinton for president.
Dec. 19, 2016 11:30 AM EST Oklahoma has cast 7 ballots for Donald Trump; Arkansas has cast 6 ballots for Trump; Mississippi has cast 6 votes for Trump; South Carolina has cast 9 votes for Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 11:27 AM EST West Virginia has cast 5 Electoral College votes for Donald Trump.
Dec 19, 2016 11:25 AM EST Illinois has cast 20 Electoral votes for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 11:23 AM EST The count: 11 electoral votes for Trump; 4 for Clinton
Dec 19, 2016 11:20 AM EST Votes are being tallied in Illinois now.
Dec 19, 2016 11:19 AM EST Protestors have gathered ahead of Electoral College votes in Wisconsin and Virginia.
Dec 19, 2016 11:06 AM EST Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma and South Carolina have begun the voting process.
Dec 19, 2016 11:02 AM EST Illinois’ Electoral College voters are preparing to vote. The Illinois EC process is being broadcast on CSPAN. There are 20 Illinois electors.
Dec 19, 2016 11:00 AM EST New Hampshire’s four Democratic Electoral College electors say they will be voting for Hillary Clinton.
Dec 19, 2016 10:56 AM EST A group of actors have called on Electoral College voters not to vote for Donald Trump. Here’s their video.
Dec 19, 2016 10:48 AM EST Tennessee has 11 electoral votes. Donald Trump won that state on Nov. 8
Dec 19, 2016 10:40 AM EST President-elect Donald Trump won 68.5 percent of West Virginia’s popular vote.
Dec 19, 2016 10:35 AM EST Writer, director Michael Moore tells GOP electors if they choose not to support Donald Trump and are fined under their state’s law, he will pay the fine
Dec 19, 2016 10:31 AM EST Four of the six Mississippi electors tell The Associated Press “they’re firmly committed to voting for Trump.” One declined to answer questions from AP, but he’s a longtime donor to Republican candidates, the AP reported.
Dec 19, 2016 10:29 AM EST Protesters in Indiana are protesting inside of the capital because temperatures are in the single digits outside, one said.
Dec 19, 2016 10:21 AM EST Here’s what the voters will be doing today: Electors meet in their respective states and cast and count their votes for the offices of president and vice president. They do this on separate ballots. That vote is recorded on a “Certificate of Vote,” and it, along with the “Certificate of Ascertainment” (the list of candidates who appeared on the ballot on Nov. 8 along with the names of the electors assigned to each candidate) is sent to the Congress and the National Archives as part of the official record of the 2016 election.
Dec 19, 2016 10:18 AM EST The rules on how to vote and what will take place is being read in the state chambers where voting has begun.
Dec 19, 2016 10:09 AM EST Voting has begun in Indiana. Donald Trump won the popular vote in Indiana.
Dec 19, 2016 10:01 AM EST Electoral College voting has begun now in Indiana, New Hampshire, Tennessee, West Virginia and Mississippi.
Dec 19, 2016 9:10 AM EST 538 Electoral College voters will choose a president and a vice president on Monday.

Dec 19 2016

It’s Officially Official – Donald Trump Wins Electoral College Vote…

…“and we will win, and you will win, and we will keep on winning, and eventually you will say we can’t take all of this winning, …please Mr. Trump …and I will say, NO, we will win, and we will keep…

Source: It’s Officially Official – Donald Trump Wins Electoral College Vote…