Tag Archives: Inflation

Mar 12 2026

US Inflation Looks Tame for Now — But That May Not Last


Posted originally on Mar 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Inflation up

The latest CPI report for February 2026 came in largely as expected, and, on the surface, Washington will likely celebrate the numbers. Consumer prices rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% year-over-year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and is running at 2.5% annually. By the standards of the past few years, this appears relatively calm.

If we step back and look at the trend, inflation has certainly cooled from earlier levels. Throughout much of 2025, CPI was closer to the 2.7%–3% range. By January 2026, it had eased to 2.4%, and February simply held that same pace. That slowdown is exactly what the Federal Reserve has been trying to achieve with higher interest rates.

Yet when you dig beneath the headline numbers, the story becomes far less convincing. The cost of living continues to rise in the areas that impact people the most. Shelter prices are still increasing at roughly a 3% annual pace. Medical care costs have risen about 3.4% over the past year. Household furnishings and equipment are climbing near 4%. Even personal care products are rising faster than overall inflation. None of these categories shows any meaningful sign of reversing.

Food prices also rose again in February, up roughly 0.4% for the month, while apparel prices jumped more than 1%. These are the everyday items people notice when they go shopping, which is why so many households still feel inflation is far worse than official statistics suggest.

The February CPI data largely reflects price conditions before the latest geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. Oil prices have already started moving higher following the growing confrontation with Iran, and gasoline prices have begun rising again as we move into March. Energy has been one of the biggest drivers of secondary inflation waves. When oil rises, it raises transportation costs, manufacturing costs, and eventually the cost of food distribution. That ripple effect tends to show up in the inflation data months later. Then you have war, which propels inflation faster than any other event.

The Fed is now stuck in a difficult position. Inflation is still above its 2% target, but the economy is clearly slowing and the labor market is beginning to soften. If energy prices continue to climb into the summer, the Fed may once again find itself chasing inflation that is being driven not by monetary policy but by geopolitics. Inflation is never purely about interest rates. It is always tied to global events, supply chains, and confidence in government policy.

Jan 30 2026

Cost of Living Rising Faster in Blue Cities


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

World Highest Standard of Living

Cycles are often systemic, predictable, and, as I have long argued, often the result of policy distortions interacting with underlying structural forces. The latest data showing where the cost of living is rising fastest in the United States is a textbook example of how centralized, urban-centric policies can create persistent price pressures and distort economic incentives.

According to a new study by Plasma, the cities where the cost of living is rising fastest are:

  1. New York City
  2. San Diego, California
  3. San Francisco, California
  4. Los Angeles, California
  5. Seattle, Washington
  6. Boston, Massachusetts
  7. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  8. San Jose, California
  9. Chicago, Illinois
  10. Baltimore, Maryland
Housing

All of these metros are either solidly Democratic blue or dominated by policies implemented by progressive leadership. Broader evidence shows higher costs in blue states and blue cities due to higher regulation, taxes, and constrained housing supply.

While red and purple cities also experience price pressures, the magnitude is markedly different. Berkley conducted a study to determine why costs rise rapidly in blue-driven areas. Data show blue stated and the cities within them exhibit higher cost structures compared to their red and purple counterparts, particularly in housing. Berkley noted that the trend of higher costs in blue states has been a 15-year trend in the making. “A combination of high demand for housing and restrictions on supply that lead to shortage drive high housing costs in blue states,” the study notes.

The study looks at  Regional Price Parities (RPP) data, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) annually to determine national pricing levels. Each element of RPP, from housing, utilities, goods, and services, is distinctly higher in blue states. Utilities, as of 2023, were 45% more expensive in blue states, while housing jumped 52% higher than purple or red areas.

Blue states have greater levels of regulation-driven housing shortages. “Environmental regulations and policies promoting clean energy likely play a role,” the study admits. Zoning restrictions have prevented blue areas from creating enough housing to meet demand.

Urban centers like New York, San Francisco, and Boston are global magnets for capital and labor. The concentration of finance, tech, and high-skill jobs amplifies price pressure. Higher demand leads to higher costs, which leads higher wage demands and overall price levels. But policies will not permit the market to operate freely, and areas are reserved for government-approved housing. Government makes it increasingly difficult to build housing that they cannot control and monitor. Interventions like rent controls and mandates further distorts supply.

These areas also have massive budget shortfalls. New York City’s self-proclaimed socialist mayor Mamdani admitted that high earners will need to pay more in taxes to meet budget deficits. That plan has never worked and only successfully leads to capital flight. The drastic difference in pricing between blue and red or purple cities and states shows how policy and policed markets can distort pricing.

Dec 30 2025

Deflation v Inflation v Stagflation – Misconceptions Clarified


Posted originally on Dec 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Deflation Inflation

Some people have a tough time understanding that we are in a massive deflationary spiral; they think that rising prices mean it is inflation and not deflation. Then they mistake stagflation for deflation and wonder why people are spending more on less. They only see prices, not disposable income, and, indeed, not economic growth or unemployment.

Prices rose sharply following the OPEC oil price hikes of the 1970s. Still, the sharp rise in energy prices crowded out other forms of spending, resulting in rising prices that had nothing to do with a speculative economic expansion, and a deflationary contraction they called STAGFLATION occurred, with rising prices and declining economic growth.

If you want to raise NET DISPOSABLE INCOME, lower taxes! Raising wages, as the Democratas believe corporations should do, will cause people to move to higher tax brackets, and soon, all benefits will come into play with these socialistic programs. As always, nobody in government talks about reducing government waste and corruption. The very people who are using these social programs are still paying taxes to the state and federal government.

StagflationInflationUnemployment

Household income will soon be defined as everyone living in the same house – kids and all. Perhaps you will have to pitch a tent and make the kids sleep outside with the dog to avoid “household” income tax increases. Deflation is not the lowering of prices; it is the lowering of economic activity that can also include STAGFLATION, which occurs when prices rise but there is no economic growth.

Now, stagflation is not exactly the same as deflation, where the price of goods and services declines. For example, before World War II, the US experienced a massive deflationary environment in which GDP fell by 30% between the crash of 1929 and 1933. A quarter of Americans were unemployed. Imagine 1 in 4 eligible workers on the sidelines. Prices plummeted, and consumers were not spending because they had very little, if anything, to spend. Panics erupted, and people hoarded; the Second World War brought America out of that economic downfall. The public confidence wave began after World War II, because people believed their change in fortune was due to government policies (i.e., FDR’s New Deal) and war victory.

During periods of stagflation, the prices of goods and services increase while buying power decreases. Consumers end up spending more on less. As we are seeing now, for example, retail sales of items such as clothing have declined, but people are spending more on gas, shelter, and groceries. People feel as if they are earning less despite wage increases because their buying power has been drastically reduced. Companies will suffer as consumers spend less, and this has led to workforce reductions. Unemployment during the OPEC crisis of the 1970s was not nearly as severe, but it rose to 7.2% by 1980. Inflation went from around 1% in 1964 to 14% in 1980, and GDP growth went from 5.8% to -0.3% during that same period.

So be very careful. If you only look at prices rising and ignore the fact that your disposable income is declining, you will be in for a very rude awakening. Unemployment will continue to rise in 2026, with the computer anticipating figures surpassing 6%. The trend was set in motion long before automation and AI. Companies simply will not hire when they expect a continued contraction. The ability to borrow at a lower rate is not enticing because those same companies do not want to take on more debt than they already owe. We will not see another Great Depression by any means, but the “soft landing” is merely rhetoric intended to lift confidence.

Dec 11 2025

Hawkish Members Outnumbered – Fed Cuts Rates for Third Consecutive Time


Posted originally on Dec 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Federal Reserve Bank

The Federal Reserve was divided this December; hawkish members of the FOMC were outnumbered, and the central bank approved its third consecutive cut of 2025. “We’re in the high end of the range of neutral,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell added. “It″s so happened that we’ve cut three times. We have we haven’t made any decision about January, but as I said, we think we’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy performs.”

“The discussions we have are as good as any we’ve had in my 14 years at the Fed, very thoughtful, respectful, and you just have people who have strong views, and we come together and we reach a place where we can make a decision,” Powell said.

The ultimate 9-3 vote has brought the overnight rate down to 3.5%-3.75%. Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by Trump, naturally requested a steeper 0.5% reduction. Presidents Jeffrey Schmid of Kansas City and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago were the only members in favor of holding. Miran voted to hold rates during the past three FOMC meetings, but his time at the central bank comes to an end in January. Schmid voted “no” for the second consecutive time.

Of the 19 participants, four issued “soft dissents” expressing disagreement with the decision. Only 12 members have the right to vote on the final outcome. Remember that the president appoints the Board of Governors with Senate approval. Donald Trump sees rates through the eyes of a borrower and mistakenly believes bringing rates down to 0 would lead to business expansion and lower inflation. Trump now has the ability to replace members with candidates who support his dovish stance.

Inflation is driven by fiscal policy, not monetary policy. Congress can run deficits until the sun burns out, and the Fed has no authority to stop them. You can raise or lower interest rates all you want, for it will not change the fact that government spending has blown past anything sustainable. When you borrow without end, servicing that debt becomes a greater share of national income, and that is where the real inflationary pressure comes from. It has nothing to do with whether a handful of hawks around a conference table want 25 bps more. Once FDR hijacked the system and consolidated power in Washington, the Fed became an accessory to fiscal irresponsibility.

The system broke when the government swapped corporate paper for sovereign debt. Once the Fed became the buyer of last resort for federal spending, inflation became a political problem and not a monetary one.

Oct 9 2025

Poland’s PM Praises Man Accused of Destroying Nord Stream Pipeline


Posted originally on Oct 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong | 

Nordstream

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes the man who allegedly destroyed the Nord Stream pipeline did his country a great service. Tusk is considering breaking international law by harboring the fugitive who is wanted by the German government. The man, of course, will be the scapegoat for the incident. More telling is Warsaw’s response, rooted in old geopolitical tensions and willful ignorance of how drastically the explosion hurt their own economy.

“The problem of Europe, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland is not that Nord Stream 2 was blown up, but that it was built,” Tusk said. “It is certainly not in the interest of Poland to hand over this citizen to a foreign country.” Poland will hold the man in its custody for an additional 40 days, during which it will consider Germany’s demand that he be extradited for prosecution.

“Russia, with money from some European states and German and (Anglo-) Dutch companies, built Nord Stream 2 against the vital interests not only of our states, but of all of Europe, and there can be no ambiguity about that,” Tusk concluded.

Poland has always been caught between Germany and Russia. From the Polish partitions in the 18th century to Soviet domination in the 20th, the Polish political class views any direct German-Russian cooperation as an existential threat. Poland initially protested the pipeline because it felt that Germany was attempting to remove Eastern Europe’s main bargaining chip with Moscow — energy transportation. They invested in LNG terminals, aligned with US energy interests, and positioned themselves as the eastern front against both Russian and EU central control.

The European Union and the euro could never erase generations of geopolitical hatred and scars. Warsaw simply sees Berlin as the lesser of two evils when it comes to Moscow. Tusk’s comments are a deliberate attempt to create friction with Germany and undermine the power they continue to hold over Poland as the economic center of the EU.

NordStreamExplosionSept2022

One bad apple spoils the bunch, and in the case of Europe, one bad economy will do the trick. Europe was reliant on Russian energy for many years prior to the war. Poland was purchasing 95.5% of its oil from Russia in 2012; the figure declined to 63.1% by 2021 before the war. Yet, Tusk is condemning former German Chancellor Angela Merkel for agreeing to the Nord Stream pipeline. Energy prices spiked by 30% after the pipeline demolition, fueling valid fears of energy shortages across the continent.

The pipeline itself may have been a Russian majority asset, but the infrastructure projects and joint ventures sprouting from the pipeline benefited Europe. European firms, including Wintershall Dea (Germany), E.ON (PEG Infrastruktur, Germany), Gasunie (Netherlands), and ENGIE (France), collectively held 49% of the Nord Stream AG operating company, while Gazprom itself retained 51%.

By now, the world knows that Western intelligence agencies deliberately targeted the pipeline in an act of war. The man detained would be considered a terrorist if these charges were factual. Perhaps they do not want to conduct a fake investigation or trial that would raise suspicions. Tusk needs to look down and realize he’s been shot in the foot with the destruction of this pipeline that ALL of Europe, not merely Germany, benefited from.

Oct 9 2025

Part IV – Covering Up the Biggest Political Scandal in U.S. History


Posted originally on CTH on October 8, 2025 | Sundance 

Thankfully, people in Washington DC are finally starting to realize the full scale of the Obama surveillance system. All of the evidence and datapoints -released and yet to surface- flow in one direction. Even the professionally reluctant are starting to admit.

What Obama, Biden, Comey, Crossfire Hurricane, Robert Mueller, Arctic Frost and Jack Smith were doing, was using their offices -and govt systems- to watch their opposition, spy on them, then take action based on the results.

Friend of the Treehouse John Spiropoulos put together a series of videos explaining how President Obama, FBI Director James Comey and CIA Director John Brennan constructed a coverup to hide their political surveillance operation. Today, the 5th segment is wrapped into a total video containing all segments in the series.

Rumble Link Here – YouTube Link Here

From the perspective of Obama, Comey and Brennan, expanding Hillary Clinton’s Trump-Russia collusion narrative was the key element to hide the activity of the administration prior to the November 2016 election.  That’s the motive for the FBI and CIA to collaborate on the agenda after the shocking outcome of the 2016 election result; but pay close attention to the activity of the primary “at risk” official, James Comey.

The December ’16 Joint Analysis Report (JAR), and the January ’17 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), were fabricated to enhance a spying coverup. Spiropoulos has taken the time to put the deconstruction of the ICA into a simple to follow video format.

From a risk management perspective, initially the surveillance and spying operation was a low-risk endeavor.  Obama held power and was going to hand off operations to Hillary. The Clinton administration would retain the officials who were doing the surveillance/spying, and no one would ever know.

Donald Trump was not expected to win the election.  When he did, all of the participants were suddenly at risk. President Obama and every member of his cabinet involved in the spying operations, then used Clinton’s “Russiagate” smear to cover up Obama’s “Spygate” activity.

The IRS was used to identify targets 2010 through 2012, until discovered in April ’12. Suddenly, President Obama has a problem. President Obama then sends his Chief of Staff, Jack Lew, to run the IRS and block discoveries around the IRS weaponization.

♦ From 2012 through April 2016, the Obama administration was spying on their political opposition using the FBI to conduct surveillance through their access to the NSA database.

♦ In April 2016, NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers was alerted by the NSA compliance officer who noted the uptick in database access activity by the FBI searching the Republican primary candidate field.

♦ Post April 2016, the Obama administration had a problem. Enter FBI operation “Crossfire Hurricane,” July 2016, in an effort to remove the political risk.

♦ October 2016, the FBI rushes a FISA application through the FISC, circumventing the missing ‘Woods File’, with the Chris Steele dossier as evidence.

♦ October 2016, NSA Director Rogers sends the first official notification of the FBI using the NSA database to the oversight body, the FISA Court.

♦ December 2016, worried about Trump now discovering the NSA database spying, the Obama administration wraps the Clinton smear into official policy, blaming the Russians and validating Crossfire Hurricane. That’s where the Intelligence Community Assessment becomes critical.

♦ May 2017, needing to extend the coverup of the FBI activity, special counsel Robert Mueller then takes over Crossfire Hurricane. All FBI evidence and personnel transfers to Mueller.

♦ April 2019, Robert Mueller operation wraps up, prior activity coverup shifts to Impeachment process.

♦ July 2019, John Durham kicks in extending DOJ/FBI control through 2020 election.

♦ Fall 2020, mail-in ballots triggered to facilitate 2020 election outcome.

♦ January 2021, FBI triggers Operation Arctic Frost, targeting Trump supporters and 2020 election researchers. FBI again using NSA database search queries to identify targeting.

♦ March 2021, FBI Arctic Frost results fed to J6 Committee and DHS. TSA trigger “Quiet Skies” targeting via results from Arctic Frost.

♦ August 2022, FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago to retrieve any evidence Donald Trump might have of FBI spying and surveillance activity.

♦ September 2023, Jack Smith targets congressional members who had contact with President Trump.

It’s one long continuum of coverup activity within Main Justice and the FBI, supported by all other various agencies who operate in support. What are they covering up? The 2012 through 2016 political spying operation within the Obama administration, as carried out by the same Main Justice and FBI operations.

Obama’s Spies & Lies: The Junk Intel Scandal DECLASSIFIED

Oct 6 2025

UK NHS Encourages First-Cousin Marriages


Posted originally on Oct 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

CousinMarriageNHS.UK_

The Islamic state of the United Kingdom updated health guidelines to appease new residents. According to the National Health Institute, there are “benefits” to first-cousin marriage “despite birth defect risk.”

The United Kingdom has fallen.

The once-trusted national health agency stated that the benefits of inbreeding outweigh the disadvantages due to “stronger extended family support systems and economic advantages.”

“Genetic counseling, awareness-raising initiatives and public health campaigns are all important tools to help families make informed decisions without stigmatizing certain communities and cultural traditions,” the NHS added. The nation would prefer to permit inbreeding and create a population with irreparable deformities than to “stigmatize certain communities.” Tax-payers should fund “genetic counseling” since science, logic, and basic morals have no place in the UK in 2025.

“In the general population, a child’s chance of being born with a genetic condition is around two to three percent; this increases to four to six percent in children of first cousins. Hence, most children of first cousins are healthy,” the article also claimed. Inbreeding conditions include deafness, thalassemia, hemophilia, cystic fibrosis, congenital heart disease, and more. Since both parents share a common ancestor (grandparents), their children have a 25% change of inheriting any recessive mutation.

Joe Rogan recently shared that around 70% of the Pakistani community living in the United Kingdom are married to a blood relative. The statistic was not sensationalized for views. The Journal of Medical Genetics published a study decades ago indicating that the rate of first-cousin marriage among Pakistanis living in the UK was 55%. The rate is likely higher now due to the unprecedented population uptick.

Illegal? No. Immoral? Studies indicate that incestual marriage is far more common in people with lower education and income. Siblings conspire to arrange these marriages without the consent of their children. Young girls are commonly forced into incestuous marriages to support their families financially. None of this coincides with Western values or morals.

The fact that the nation’s top health organization would encourage these unions is deeply concerning. The genetic risks are well-known in the scientific community. Children of cousin marriages have a 400% higher chance of living with an IQ below 70 compared to children of non-related parents. The risk of a stillborn during pregnancy is also significantly higher. The NHS has lost any remaining shred of credibility or dignity.

NHS Heathcare UK

British Health Secretary Wes Streeting has called for an apology on the issue of the NHS report. “The first I heard of this was when I saw that report. I asked immediately, ‘What on earth is going on here and what are they playing at?’ The advice has been taken down, but why was it ever there in the first place? Medical science and evidence are clear,” Streeting told LBC radio. “First-cousin marriages are high risk and unsafe, we see the genetic defects it causes, the harm that it causes,” Streeting added.

The NHS has been forced to apologize after public backlash. Yet, this is the same agency that declared that breastmilk from trans individuals or “chestfeeding liquid” was safe for newborn babies. Is promoting child marriage the next step to cultural pandering? The world has witnessed a once great kingdom commit societal and cultural suicide—it’s over.

Oct 4 2025

Mike Davis: If They Actually Disbar Jeff Clark Congress Will Have To Step Up And Haul In These People For Oversight Hearings


Posted originally on Rumble on By Bannon’s War Room on: October, 03, 2025

Oct 4 2025

Mike Davis: The President Has The Constitutional Duty To Root Out Waste, Fraud, And Abuse


Posted originally on Rumble on By Bannon’s War Room on: October, 03, 2025

Oct 4 2025

Pentagon Lines the Pockets of Warmongers


Posted originally on Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |