Tag Archives: Write laws and legislation briefs

Jul 31 2022

January 6th – a Fair Investigation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jul 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Jul 31 2022

Keep in Mind, The Same Media and Financial Voices Denying the Current Recession, are The Same Media and Financial Voices Who Proclaimed Trump’s Tariffs Would Destroy Economy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 30, 2022 | Sundance

It was the Fourth Quarter of 2019…..

Right before the pandemic would hit a few months later…. Despite two years of doomsayer predictions from Wall Street’s professional punditry, all of them saying Trump’s 2017 steel and aluminum tariffs on China, Canada and the EU would create massive inflation, it just wasn’t happening!

Overall year-over-year inflation was hovering around 1.7 percent [Table-A BLS]; yup, that was our inflation rate.  The rate in the latter half of 2019 was firmed up with less month-over-month fluctuation, and the rate basically remained consistent.   [See Below]  The U.S. economy was on a smooth glide path, strong, stable and Main Street was growing with MAGAnomics at work.

A couple of important points.  First, unleashing the energy sector to drive down overall costs to consumers and industry outputs was a key part of President Trump’s America-First MAGAnomic initiative.  Lower energy prices help the worker economy, middle class and average American more than any other sector.

Which brings us to the second important point.  Notice how food prices had very low year-over-year inflation, 0.5 percent.  That is a combination of two key issues: low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag hold on the farm production and the export dynamic:

(BLS) […] The index for food at home declined for the third month in a row, falling 0.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.7 percent in August as the index for eggs fell 2.6 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose in July, fell 0.5 percent in August; the index for fresh fruits declined 1.4 percent, but the index for fresh vegetables rose 0.4 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.3 percent in July. (link)

For the previous twenty years food prices had been increasingly controlled by Big Ag, and not by normal supply and demand.   The commodity market became a ‘controlled market’. U.S. food outputs (farm production) was controlled and exported to keep the U.S. consumer paying optimal prices.

President Trump’s trade reset was disrupting this process.  As farm products were less exported the cost of the food in our supermarket became reconnected to a ‘more normal’ supply and demand cycle.  Food prices dropped and our pantry costs were lowered.

The Commerce Dept. then announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August 2019, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlighted retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results came on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, 2019, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

Despite the efforts to remove and impeach President Trump, it did not look like middle-class America was overly concerned about the noise coming from the pundits.   Likely that’s because blue-collar wages were higher, Main Street inflation was lower, and overall consumer confidence was strong.  Yes, MAGAnomics was working.

Additionally, remember all those MSM hours and newspaper column inches where the professional financial pundits were claiming Trump’s tariffs were going to cause massive increases in prices of consumer goods?

Well, exactly the opposite happened [BLS report] Import prices were continuing to drop:

[Table 1 – BLS report link]

This was a really interesting dynamic that no-one in the professional punditry would dare explain.

Donald Trump’s tariffs were targeted to specific sectors of imported products.  [Steel, Aluminum, and a host of smaller sectors etc.]  However, when the EU and China respond by devaluing their currency, that approach hit all products imported, not just the tariff goods.

Because the EU and China were driving up the value of the dollar, everything we were importing became cheaper.   Not just imports from Europe and China, but actually imports from everywhere.   All imports were entering the U.S. at substantially lower prices.

This meant when we imported products, we were also importing deflation.

This price result is exactly the opposite of what the economic experts and Wall Street pundits predicted back in 2017 and 2018 when they were pushing the rapid price increase narrative.

Because all the export dependent economies were reacting with such urgency to retain their access to the U.S. market, aggregate import prices were actually lower than they were when the Trump tariffs began:

[…]  Prices for imports from China edged down 0.1 percent in August following decreases of 0.2 percent in both July and June. Import prices from China have not advanced on a monthly basis since ticking up 0.1 percent in May 2018. The price index for imports from China fell 1.6 percent for the year ended in August.

[…]  Import prices from the European Union fell 0.2 percent in August and 0.3 percent over the past 12 months.

[Page #4 – BLS Report, pdf] – BLS press release

Jul 30 2022

The Biggest Problem


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance

People often wonder why few solutions are presented for the significant challenges we face.  Perhaps it is worth reminding everyone what the biggest challenge really is, and it has nothing to do with Joe Biden or our political system abusers.

The biggest problem we face as a nation is our unwillingness to admit our current condition is the result of purposeful action.

Cue example # [you_fill_in_the_ blank], a visual demonstration:

The central banks did not “fail to spot” the source of inflation.  The monetary policy makers did not make mistakes. The hands that guide the economic system did not screw it up, make mistakes or fail to recognize the consequences of the policy they put into place.

When they meet together at Davos for collective discussions around opportunities presented by the pandemic, the guidebook known as Build Back Better did not just organically materialize.  Nor did all the western governing central bankers all make a mistake when they followed the agreed consensus.  They knew from the outset the climate change agenda would be a radical transformation of the global energy system, and as a result, the global economy.

The central banks did not collectively “fail to spot” the inflation they were creating by lowering energy production, disincentivizing energy investment, limiting energy development, shifting policy away from new production, and generally breaking the traditional energy system finances.  They knew precisely what they were doing, and they did it -and continue to do it- with forethought and purpose.

This is where people mistakenly view ‘prior justifications‘ as ‘mistakes.’  When they said inflation was transitory, they were not lying about what they created. They were, however, obfuscating the length of the term “transitory.”   Inflation is transitory, from where and when it started in 2021, all the way to where and when windmills, solar panels and clean energy will take over on (fill_in_date_).  That is the “transition.”

These bankers, bureaucrats and political leaders are not stupid, and factually their intelligence has absolutely nothing to do with the situation.

These governing officials are ideologues, the worst kind of abuser you could ever encounter because they believe they are doing everything for your own good.  Their collective truth is all that matters.

You the citizens within the nations they govern, are not smart enough to know what is best for you.

You, the people who take their magnanimous policies for granted, are not thoughtful enough to understand how to save the planet.

You, the person using resources without caring about the planet, are not bright enough to see how your long-term interests are made better by their short-term actions.

These psychological outlooks are inherent traits of ideologues and abusers.

Once you realize your opinion in their plan means nothing, then you can understand why actions contrast against your opinion of that action are difficult to reconcile.

The actions of the ideologues seem hypocritical only because you are projecting a motive toward them, they do not carry.  You think they are making mistakes; they are not.  You think they made the wrong assumptions in their policies, they did not.  You think they are screwing up the economy, they are not; at least not according to the plan they have.

They met, discussed, planned, organized and collectively came to the decision that they would all act in synergy.  Each individual taking the actions within his/her sphere of influence that would assist the larger agenda.  Each government leader steering his/her internal policy in a direction that befits the larger collective need, regardless of domestic opinion.  None of this was done by mistake.

The western central bankers all show up to the same conferences, symposiums and discussions; and they all follow the exact same approach.  Yet somehow, we reconcile their collective and intentional outcomes as if they are making mistakes that they will soon correct.  Then we sit puzzling over our puzzlers wondering why the correction is not happening.

The biggest problem we face is our inability to accept what is done, and instead we project justifications that are nonexistent.  We are suffering from battered citizen syndrome.

We reconcile our economic collapse by saying they are getting the policies wrong.  No.

Just stop.

They are executing the policies exactly as they were planned from the outset. Your financial abuse is a feature, not a flaw, of your abusers’ behavior.  The policies are working exactly as intended.

The Central Banks did not “fail to spot” anything. They knew what was causing inflation (energy policy) and they needed to ignore it (still do). They pretend higher costs are now some weird demand-side construct, despite no one buying much, in order to support the global Build Back Better climate change policy objective that will save future generations of mankind.  The operational timeline is decades, not weeks or months.

The word “transitory” was used purposefully, in order to hide and obfuscate their prior knowledge. The bankers knew when they said it, that a transition was exactly what the BBB program called for, which was to delay any monetary rate increase as long as possible allowing energy policy inflation to structurally embed.

Once the bankers, ideologues, globalist WEF guides and bureaucrats, got the fully supported climate change energy program (BBB) to take hold globally as an economic control mechanism (no new production), then -and only then- did they modify their policy to support the second phase.

Phase-2 is to reduce global economic activity to match the 2021 deficit in energy production. That phase began in March 2022:

We are in phase 2 now.  The U.S. Federal Reserve and the various central banks now raising interest rates to lower all western economic activity.

The goal in phase-2 is to lower energy demand to offset the massive increases in price, due to *nonproduction* of the energy in phase-1.

Put simply, bring energy use down by raising rates and lowering the economic activity.

This “managing the transition” is being done purposefully and collectively. This is exactly what the Build Back Better agenda called for. They did not get anything wrong. They did not make mistakes. Our current economic state, and/or the pain you feel, is the exact outcome of the plan they followed.

Now, I fully understand why the Wall Street financial pundits and global news corporations do not outline this reality.  After all, this type of elitist behavior is exactly what revolutions are born from. However, it is very frustrating that smart people on the pragmatic and practical side cannot see or accept the political roadmap for what it is.

This is being done on purpose. They are not making mistakes.

I don’t care what you want to call it: Build Back Better, Green New Deal, The Great Reset, whatever.  I simply don’t care about the labels. But the truth of a coordinated approach to manage the western economies into useful decline must be admitted *BEFORE* we can expect to change things.

As long as our codependency facilitates our abuse…. As long as denial of intent is a comforting mechanism, allowing us to avoid confronting the abuse we are suffering…. No corrective action is possible.

It starts by changing our thinking.

Brazil, Mexico, and more recently Japan, have started pushing back against the climate change ideologues.  We must do the same.

Act, or be acted upon.

Jul 30 2022

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Great Pretending Around the Biden Economic Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance 

Tucker Carlson used his monologue tonight to outline how intentional Joe Biden economic policies are destroying the lifestyle of the average American citizen.  As Carlson notes none of this is accidental, all of these policies are being done with intent. Yet almost the entire media system and financial class, are denying the resulting outcomes.

The administration and media are not redefining a recession, they are denying one exists in order to make all of the policies permanent. WATCH:

Jul 30 2022

U.S. Postal Service Opens Permanent Political Division, Dedicated to the Delivery and Return of Mail-in Election Ballots, DNC Lawyer Mark Elias is Very Happy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance 

With mail-in ballots becoming a feature of all future elections, the United States government, specifically the United States Postal Service (USPS) is now creating a permanent division inside USPS to control the delivery and return of the election ballots.  Do you know the political affiliation of your mail courier?

As often said, it’s not the vote that matters, it’s the counting…. or in this instance, the collection of the votes that really matters.  Democrat lawyer Mark Elias, in charge of protecting all fraudulent voting initiatives on behalf of the Democrat National Committee, is happy with the news.

Keep in mind the union representing 300,000 U.S. postal workers previously endorsed Democrat Joe Biden for president. The National Association of Letter Carriers, is a fully compromised left-wing division of the USPS.

The USPS has just created a division of NALC employees exclusively to handle mail-in voting, just in time for the mid-term election.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States Postal Service is creating a division to handle election mail issues as part of an effort to ensure swift and secure delivery of ballots for the 2022 midterm election, officials said Wednesday.

The idea behind the creation of the Election and Government Mail Services is to have a permanent division dedicated to dealing with election matters, instead of handling issues one at a time as in the past.

Adrienne Marshall, executive director of the division, said Wednesday that the services will oversee “election mail strike teams” in every local and district community to address any problems that might arise.  “We are fully committed to the secure and timely delivery of the nation’s election mail,” she said. (read more)

“Swift and secure delivery”?

“I told ya,… and they spent all that time looking at mules and machines”…

Jul 29 2022

Judge Seals Middleton Case


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Former Clinton advisor Mark Middleton was found dead under mysterious circumstances in May. Middleton is the main link between Bill Clinton and Jeffrey Epstein. Days after Ghislaine Maxwell revealed she would unveil her client list for a reduced sentence, Middleton suddenly died at the age of 59.

The death was ruled a suicide. Middleton allegedly traveled 30 miles from his home to a ranch that he never had reportedly visited. He hung himself from a tree and simultaneously shot himself in the chest with a shotgun. The sheriff at the scene immediately claimed there would be no investigation.

Circuit Judge Alice Gray does not want to end up on the Clinton “suicide” list. The Freedom of Information Act would require some disclosure of unreleased federal documents. If other lawmakers were to become involved, this act could be implemented, and the case could reopen. That is unlikely. Judge Gray ruled that the Middleton case is closed and sealed. Gray stated:

“The Court finds that since Mr. Middleton’s death, the Middletons have been harassed by individuals with outlandish, hurtful, unsubstantiated, and offensive conspiracy theories regarding Mr. Middleton, his death, and his family, which have caused the Middletons immense harm and anguish.”

The judge claims that she is sealed records, including all videos, photos, and other content, to protect the Middletons, but obviously, her aim is to protect a more powerful family. The judge further stated that “a reasonable person would find the disclosure of the Media Content harmful or embarrassing.” A reasonable person would question how a man could possibly kill himself in that manner. The Clinton Body Count continues to grow.

Jul 29 2022

Pretending Continues, However El Erian Admits U.S. Economy Weakening Faster Than Expected


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance 

The great pretending continues in order to protect the Federal Reserve from sunlight upon them.  Central banks (U.S. Fed Reserve included) are raising interest rates into a recession, which is specifically against their legislative mandate. Therefore, in order to protect the bankers, the pundits and politicians must deny a recession exists.

Pundit Steve Liesman spins the data, says we need to wait longer, and circles the wagons to protect the policy makers, specifically the White House.  Mohamed El-Erian tries to split the baby (02:00 video); while not admitting directly that the economy is in a recession, he states the “economy is weakening much faster than expected.”  WATCH:

At a certain point all of this pretending and denial is going to come crashing down.  The “economic transition” to a new “green future” they are all pretending not to see as the root cause of the economic collapse, has unavoidable consequences.

The dam is breaking around them and they are running out of fingers and toes to stop the inevitable collapse.  Meanwhile the Davos crowd has purchased all the scuba gear and awaits the final outcome.

By claiming there is not a recession, the Federal Reserve can continue taking action that lowers economic activity.  The lowering of economic activity drops the use of energy inside the economy.  They are managing the economic transition inside the Build Back Better or Green New Deal agenda.  They are managing a purposeful decline in economic activity in order to support the energy transition.

The only way the Federal Reserve and central banks can raise interest rates into a recession, is if they deny a recession exists.

That is why they are denying a recession exists.

Jul 29 2022

FUBAR, Second Quarter GDP Contracts 0.9%, The U.S. Economy is Officially in Recession


Posted Originally in the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance 

Jumpin’ ju-ju-bones, CTH did not expect the BEA to admit the U.S. economy was in recession.  CTH originally predicted the BEA would use lower import data as the primary tool to modify the GDP result.

Factually, in this report, import data -in combination with lower consumer spending- was the primary sector that led to the result.  However, even with drops in the valuation of imports which lift GDP calculations, the economy still contracted.

Things must be much worse than officially admitted (details below), if the BEA is going to admit things are bad.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the economy, minus the dollar value of goods and services we import. The percentages discussed are percentages of change over time.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of the second quarter GDP [Data Here] reflecting a 0.9% drop in U.S. economic activity. The second quarter contraction follows a 1.6% drop in the first quarter, which means we now have two consecutive quarters of declining economic activity, the technical definition of a recession.

The two primary data points which show the economic contraction are: (1) Lowered consumer spending; and (2) much lower imports as a result of lower consumer spending on durable goods and non-essential items.  High Q1 inventories of goods were also flushed out by companies and not replaced.  Starting with the consumer spending, here’s the data [Table-2, BEA report]:

Consumer spending, also called “personal consumption expenditures” declined 1.08% for goods overall in the second quarter.

Consumer spending represents two-thirds of all GDP in the United States.  Americans buy lots of stuff, and when Americans stop spending on goods the economy stalls.  As you can see in Table-2, consumer spending on goods dropped 1.08% and spending on services increased 1.78%.  The net difference is 0.70%, a massive drop in consumer spending compared to prior quarters/years.

The next component with major impact is the result of the drop in spending.

Jul 29 2022

Pretending Continues, However El Erian Admits U.S. Economy Weakening Faster Than Expected


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance

The great pretending continues in order to protect the Federal Reserve from sunlight upon them.  Central banks (U.S. Fed Reserve included) are raising interest rates into a recession, which is specifically against their legislative mandate. Therefore, in order to protect the bankers, the pundits and politicians must deny a recession exists.

Pundit Steve Liesman spins the data, says we need to wait longer, and circles the wagons to protect the policy makers, specifically the White House.  Mohamed El-Erian tries to split the baby (02:00 video); while not admitting directly that the economy is in a recession, he states the “economy is weakening much faster than expected.”  WATCH:

At a certain point all of this pretending and denial is going to come crashing down.  The “economic transition” to a new “green future” they are all pretending not to see as the root cause of the economic collapse, has unavoidable consequences.

The dam is breaking around them and they are running out of fingers and toes to stop the inevitable collapse.  Meanwhile the Davos crowd has purchased all the scuba gear and awaits the final outcome.

By claiming there is not a recession, the Federal Reserve can continue taking action that lowers economic activity.  The lowering of economic activity drops the use of energy inside the economy.  They are managing the economic transition inside the Build Back Better or Green New Deal agenda.  They are managing a purposeful decline in economic activity in order to support the energy transition.

The only way the Federal Reserve and central banks can raise interest rates into a recession, is if they deny a recession exists.

That is why they are denying a recession exists.

Jul 28 2022

Domestic Exodus from US Cities


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jul 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The US Census Bureau reported that 8.4% of Americans moved in 2021, beneath the 9.3% who moved at the height of the pandemic panic in 2020. Numbers for 2022 may show an uptick in migration to the suburbs or rural areas. Our models indicate that overheating in the housing market will be less prevalent in less populated areas as we are not merely dealing with housing inflation but also mass domestic migration.

Housing may be cheaper in rural areas, but there are additional costs associated with living in the country. There is no public transportation, and people must travel longer distances for work, groceries, shopping, health care, and more. Energy prices are sky-high, and simple trips cost significantly more. Iowa State University professor Dave Peters, as reported by the AP, has been studying the impact inflation has had on rural America. Peters estimates that rural households pay $2,500 more per year for gas alone compared to those living in cities.

Still, prices for housing in the country v the city more than makeup for increased energy costs. Remote work has made rural living a prospect for many Americans. The National Association of Realtors found that rural areas saw a 54.6% uptick in inbound moves in 2021, followed by micropolitan areas (i.e., small towns) at 53.8%.

In January, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) said that certain remote workers were enticed by rural life after pandemic burnout. They found that people were seeking to abandon the hustle and bustle of city living, citing lower living costs, safer environments, fewer people, no traffic, lower housing prices, different cultures, and politics.

Gone are the days of people flocking to the cities for opportunities. As long as there is an internet connection, the modern American can work from anywhere. As the average potential buyer is priced out from their hometown, the prospect of rural or small town life is increasingly enticing.