Should the Feds Lower Rates?


Posted originally on Jan 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Donald Trump face off once again. The two have notoriously butted heads over interest rates, as Trump has accused the Fed of stifling economic growth by raising the cost of borrowing. Speaking at Davos, the president said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

We all know the Federal Reserve is independent and the White House cannot dictate interest rates. Lowering interest rates does not stimulate the economy, contradictory to the common belief that reducing rates will boost economic growth. The outdated understanding based on Keynesian Economics states that an increase in the supply of money MUST be inflationary. The Fed raises rates to reduce consumption and lowers rates to stimulate consumption.

It’s a very nice theory, but when actually tested, it utterly fails. Lower rates will NEVER cause people to invest until they believe that there is an opportunity to invest. We are watching the big players withdraw from equities, let alone government debt. We are in a private wave where money is running off the grid at a rapid pace.

Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.

Every fiscal policy in recent years has exacerbated inflation and the Fed cannot keep up with government spending. QE FAILED. The artificially low interest rates of the recent past were completely unsustainable and relied on outdated theories.

The most significant issues facing our economy are simply out of the Fed’s hands: war, taxation, and government spending. Chairman Jerome Powell surprised everyone when he called spending under the Biden-Harris administration “unsustainable” and warned that it would hurt generations to come. While not a direct criticism, Powell issued a stark warning that aligned with our Revolution Cycle of 72 years. In 1951, the central bank defied the US government by refusing to purchase debt to prevent rate hikes amid the Korean War. The minutes reports always mention that the central bank is keenly monitoring geopolitical events as it must look at all variables from a global standpoint.

The issue of increasing sanctions on Russia, and the rest of the world for that matter, may raise inflationary fears and push long-term rates higher. Then we are looking at the risk of Japan, who holds the bulk of US debt, experiencing a sovereign default in a contagion that will spread to Europe.

We may see the Fed pull back rates this year. Powell understands that Keynesian policies no longer work and raising rates have no effect on inflation. Interest rates are really the price of money in anticipation of future inflation.

EDNY Judge Finds Clear and Compelling Evidence of FISA-702 “Backdoor Search” Violations by DOJ


Posted originally on the CTH on January 24, 2025 | Sundance

A few interested sites are noting a recently published decision in the U.S. v. Hasbajrami case in Brooklyn, New York, where Eastern District Judge LaShann DeArcy Hall identified the misuse of FISA-702 “backdoor searches” regarding defendant, Agron Hasbajrami.

Hasbajrami plead guilty to charges of attempting to provide material support to a terrorist organization, alleging that he intended to travel to the Federally Administered Tribal Area of Pakistan, where he expected to join a terrorist organization, receive training, and ultimately fight against U.S. forces and others in Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, after his guilty plea, while he is serving time in prison, prosecutors admitted some of the evidence against him came as a result of privacy violations, unlawful FISA-702 searches.

Hasbajrami sought to have the evidence against him thrown out on 4th amendment grounds (fruit of the poisoned tree) and withdraw his guilty plea. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals denied Hasbarjami’s blanket evidence suppression motion for the exclusion of all FISA Section 702 collection in his case but did not weigh in on whether the warrantless Section 702 database queries were constitutional, instead remanding the case back to Judge Hall for a review of that question.

Judge DeArchy Hall received the case again and reviewed all of the government motions against the request to suppress the evidence.  What results is a very well-constructed explanation and opinion of how FISA-702 was misused in the case [SEE 60-pg Opinion HERE].

The judge determined that U.S. government officials did factually violate the technical rules and procedures for the use of FISA-702 searches, and the DOJ should have gone to court to obtain a warrant to look at Hasbajrami’s private communication. In essence, yes, the 4th amendment protections of Hasbajrami were violated.  However, the issue of overturning the resulting evidence becomes a matter of legal distinction.

The defendant, who admitted guilt (twice) did not claim the evidence was a result of misuse or a wrongful approach in searching the NSA’s library, from which FISA-702 search results are determined (a structural flaw in the defense motion).  The defendant filed a suppression motion on the issue of his 4th amendment rights being violated.  The judge opinion holds that the FBI’s Section 702 queries violated the Fourth Amendment; however, the court ultimately denied the defendant’s motion to suppress the resulting evidence on separate grounds.

The value in the ruling by Judge Hall, is a few fold:  First, it is an excellent review of the FISA-702 origin and all of the constitutional arguments that surround the controversial law.  Second, the ruling clearly shows that FISA-702 searches are currently being used unlawfully and continually by government officials.  Third, the ruling clearly shows how “backdoor” 702 searches are violations of the Fourth Amendment. [Albeit in this case, of no value to the argument put forth by Hasbajrami.]

[SEE CASE RULING HERE]

All this and a few bucks will buy you a cup of coffee.

The ruling essentially underpins the reality that government officials are using their access to the complete library within the NSA collection and storage database to conduct searches of U.S. communication that removes the constitutional protections of the 4th amendment.

Mr Agron Hasbajrami was ensnared by this surveillance process and admitted his guilt thereafter.

However, the issue is not Hasbajrami’s intent, or even his guilt.  The issue that surrounds us is this constant surveillance state and the tens-of-millions of searches that are done on the private papers of American citizens.

In essence we have a domestic surveillance state looking for suspect people who are operating against the interests of government.

Mr. Hasbajrami was caught wanting to join a terrorist organization.  However, as we have witnessed in the cold and brutal reality of the J6 roundup, that same “terrorist organization” may well be defined as your local “patriot group” or “parent’s advisory committee.”

Office of Management & Budget Dir. Confirmation Hearing


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Jan 22, 2025 at 10:10 am EST

Ezra Cohen: “The Intelligence Community Is Distracted And Has Lost Sight Of The Objective”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Jan 22, 2025 at 6:00 pm EST

The Land of Plenty – US Govt Builds MASSIVE Compound in Lebanon


Posted originally on Jan 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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The United States is in the process of creating a new embassy in Lebanon that is far larger than any government facility in the nation. In fact, the 19 building, 43-acre compound is 2.5X larger than the White House and accompanying land and 10X the size of Nine Elms in London. The only larger embassy is the one the US built in Iraq. “The Land of Plenty,” as the structure will be called, will cost US taxpayers an estimated $1.2 billion. Why does the US government need a mega compound in Lebanon?

It is all about Israel. The site in Awkar, Lebanon, is 10 miles from the center of Beirut and overlooks the Mediterranean Sea. More importantly, the compound is only 60 miles from Israel. The US State Department declared that the “primary purpose” would be to “assist American citizens” within a host country. There are only 86,000 US citizens in Lebanon. The purpose of this structure is to protect Israel and American interests in the Middle East.

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This is not a partisan issue, as Obama initially approved building a colossal embassy in Lebanon, and the ground broke for this massive structure in 2017 after Trump began his first term. Everyone in the US government is eager to protect its vassal state.  “Breaking ground today on our New Embassy Compound is a strong message to the Lebanese people that we are with you for the long term.  We intend to continue the spirit of cooperation and partnership that has defined our journey together for 200 years,” Ambassador Elizabeth Richard said. Sorry, but America has turned a blind eye to Lebanon’s problems in recent years and would not shell out $1 billion if the invisible hand was not at play.

Hezbollah is aggressively present near the two largest US embassies. The 1983 marine barracks bombing in Beirut claimed 241 American soldiers and has not been forgotten. Iranian forces bombed the US embassy again that same year, claiming another 17 American lives. This structure stands as a reminder that the West still controls the Middle East.

The embassy includes airports, entertainment venues, consulate buildings and residential units. Former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan Craig Murray said that this is “not an embassy, but something 50 times bigger.” Murray has attempted to speak out on government human rights abuses abroad. He just so happened to have a pulmonary embolism days after he refused to leave his post in 2004. Murray survived and continues to speak out, though few will publish his work since he is extremely critical of the Israeli government.

“The Land of Plenty” is far too massive to operate as a simple embassy. It appears to be more akin to a small city, or military base for that matter. B.L. Harbert of Birmingham, Alabama, was awarded this lucrative contract and the press release notes that they are incorporating a Marine Security Guard Residence. Those living within the compound will likely not leave the compound.

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Edward Snowden claimed in his book, “Permanent Record,” that these buildings actually serve as a platform for espionage.

“‘The worst-kept secret in modern diplomacy is that the primary function of an embassy nowadays is to serve as a platform for espionage. Sure, embassies do still send the occasional demarche and help support their citizens abroad, and then there are the consular sections that issue visas and renew passports. But what justifies the expense is the ability for a country to use the cover of its foreign service to conduct and legitimize its spying,” Snowden wrote.

“The Land of Plenty” will operate as a key intelligence hub for the US in the Middle East. Syrians, Iranians, and the Saudis can all safely travel through Lebanon at the moment. America is not so concerned about spying on Lebanon as they can do that through Israel. It is no coincidence that America chose Lebanon at the height of its economic downfall when the nation desperately needed this investment. America’s commitment to protecting Israel has always been at the forefront. As Biden said, “If there were not an Israel, America would have to invent one.”

Trump Fails to End Ukraine War on Day 1


Posted Jan 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 
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It was a lofty promise and a campaign tale that no one believed could happen. Donald Trump stayed true on his promise to carry out a number of executive orders on Day 1 of his presidency, but he cannot simply sign an EO to end the war in Ukraine. Yet he did promise to stop sending blank checks to Ukraine and has appointed a special envoy who is requesting 100 days to reevaluate America’s position in the war. More importantly, Trump would like to go directly to the source and speak with Putin.

The Kremlin broadcast Putin’s weekly security council message earlier than expected to address Trump directly. “We are open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict,” Putin said. “Its goal should not be a short truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament with the aim of subsequently continuing the conflict, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations that live in this region.”

Russia will never waiver on a deal that does not include prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO. Trump seems to be aligned with him on this issue as any reasonable mind can comprehend how this would lead to an immediate escalation into World War III. Territorial concessions? Neither Russia or Ukraine is willing to surrender territory.

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New US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reaffirmed the new administration’s message that the war in Ukraine must end. America can withhold funding or direct intervention. America cannot undo the damage that has been done. There are too many hands in the money pit that is Ukraine from world governments to investment banks. Everyone is heavily invested in Ukraine and will demand repayment for untold fortunes spent on prolonging the for-profit war. Even withdrawing from NATO would not be sufficient to end the war as the alliance has been preparing for a Trump victory before campaigning efforts began.

Europe is pushing full speed ahead to fabricate World War II, with both Germany and France offering to send “peacekeepers,” a digestible new term for “trained soldiers.” Zelensky simply wants the money to continue pouring in. “Will President Trump even notice Europe?” Zelensky asked in appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Does he see NATO as necessary, and will he respect EU institutions?” Ukraine’s president is attempting to shape this as a Europe v the USA matter as if America is abandoning Europe under Trump.

One side does not want the war to end. You cannot negotiate when one side is firmly opposed AND does not have the final say. Zelensky sold out his country many years ago and dealing with him would be a moot point as he is not the only truly in control of Ukraine or the war efforts. Trump is going to have an extremely difficult time navigating this irreversible situation. According to our computer model, the very best efforts would only result in a delay to the inevitable. It gives me no pleasure to share this forecast but the model has yet to mislead us.

World War III is coming by 2027; the financial implications will be fully felt by 2028.

The Unelected in Brussels Deny Romania Democracy


Posted originally on Jan 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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The vote of the Romanian people must be ignored, according to the European Court of Human Rights, which upheld the annulment of the results of the first election. The next election is slated for May 18, and while Calin Georgescu is permitted to run again, will the establishment respect the vote?

Georgescu is called a far-right extremist for daring to speak out against the globalist narrative. He is firmly against NATO and promoting forever wars. He does not want the neocons to use his country as a “door for a war.” Millions of Romanians agree but their voices have been stifled by the establishment. The Romanian government under President Klaus Iohannis initially called into question Article 146(f) of the Romanian Constitution that demands elections must be legal. Romanian courts declared that RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE was at play and the vote of the people was null and void.

The European Court of Human Rights has sided with Romania’s establishment. How could this court have the authority to override Romania’s democracy? Well, all European Union members knowingly or unknowingly agreed to bend the knee to Brussels. The European Court of Human Rights is composed of 46 judges who each represent their respective member state in the Council of Europe.

Each member state presents three options for judge selection and one must be female. The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe then determines if the three proposed candidates are qualified, and the Parliamentary Assembly elects the judge who best aligns with the overall EU narrative. The people have absolutely no say or vote.

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So, not only did the Romanian government tell their citizens to ignore the election results, but judges UNELECTED by the Romanian people were able to solidify this gross misjustice. Then, the government acted puzzled that thousands took to the streets to protest, and some questioned whether they should even vote when government plans to install its candidate of choice.

Georgescu ran on a platform of ending Romania’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war and repeatedly said it is not their war to fight. The establishment will not permit Romania to remain neutral. He still holds a 38% majority of support over all other candidates but the questions remains whether the establishment will ever allow a true election is such a geographically crucial area for the next world war.

Europe Preparing to Invade Russia


Posted originally on Jan 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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I have been warning that the NEOCONS have total control of Europe. They have convinced all of these heads of state that Russia is now weak, conventionally defeated, and the time is ripe to invade. The computer is still warning about the April/June time period, and to comprehend this insanity, you must understand that an inferiority complex has been present even since post-World War II. Macron of France wants to send troops into Ukraine, and he continues to cling to the glory days of France and the dream of strategic autonomy of a Europe no longer dependent on America. With Trump coming to office, they have no interest in PEACE – they want war. They seem to be rushing to war, fearing Trump could stop them.

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These insane European leaders want to think, like Iraq, that they can conquer Russia in a matter of days. They think Ukraine has been using long-range missiles to destroy Russia’s conventional ability to defend itself. That was the entire reason why Zelinsky turned from defending his own country to invading Russia. The nonsense that this would force Russia to the peace table when every offer of peace by Putin has been ignored. They are planning the conquest of Russia and dividing up the richest nation on earth from natural resources to revitalize and collapse the EU economy.

Ep 3550a – Yellen’s Computer Was Hacked, The Call To Audit The Fed Is Getting Louder


Posted originally on Rumble By X 22 Report on: Jan 18, 2025 at 4:30 pm EST

Why Macron Wants to Create World War III – For a Dictatorships?


Posted originally on Jan 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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A reader from France elaborated on the real motives behind Macron’s wanting to send troops into Ukraine, knowing this would start World War III. He looks at this from a personal power perspective, like any dictator fearing a loss of power. The reader wrote:

“To follow up on the Post “Macron Considers Sending Troops to Ukraine” on which I added a comment, I wanted to share with you Macron’s possible strategy behind his reiteration of sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

Through this, France would officially find itself at War. In fact, Macron will be able to apply Article 16 of the constitution. The President of the National Assembly and the Senate is already there! “

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