Private verse Public Development


The Free Market Works best, when it is “Free”

There has been much debate some very heated over many complex issues today energy policy and climate change being only two of them and so the methodology we use to resolve issues like these becomes a very important subject.  The core of the issue is; should the government set development policy or the private sector? But before we can even discuses methodology and who sets policy we need to review some history, in particular the period from 1929 through 1949. More or less before 1929 most development in this country was in the private sector.  After 1949 more and more development ended up being directed and financed from the public sector e.g. the federal government.  I do not mean to imply that these are hard dates but that there was a gradual soft turning from one way of doing things to another way of doing things.

Much of what happened in this period centers on economics which in non-economic terms was a battle between the Free Market (laissez faire) as developed by Adam Smith and Central Planning as developed by John Maynard Keynes views of governance. During the ‘30s Europe was experimenting with Central Planning and America, the home of the Free Market, could not get out of a very serious recession. So naturally central planning was being seriously considered as the solution to the deepening problem. Again keeping this technical subject short and simple it was the actions of the federal government playing with Central Planning through the newly created Federal Reserve (Fed) that turned the 1929 market crash, a normal market correction, into what became known as the Great Depression.

However, the true reason for this economic depression here wasn’t actually known until 1964 that Milton Friedman a noble laurite economist showed what really happened.  The bottom line was that the Fed’s inept policies collapsed the banking system. This is fact not speculation. Unfortunately forty years had passed and by then the fixes that were tried were ingrained in the people and the politicians.  The fix being that a strong federal government could spend borrowed or printed money to stimulate economic growth.  In reality it was WW II that ended the Great Depression as spending changed from social policy spending to making armaments.  But I digress so continuing the politicians loved this concept of “spending” as it gave them a way to buy the votes of the citizens — and the modern welfare state was created.  Obviously this was not all at once, it took decades, but once in place it became impossible to get out.

We know today that the economic logic used to justify large governments and deficit spending is false but that economic proof is beyond the scope of this paper.  For those that are interested read The Big Three in Economics by Mark Skousen. However, we don’t really need academic proof we can see that the 2009 stimulus legislation that authorized almost a Trillion dollars of spending to prevent a bad recession, all borrowed by the way, did not do what it was indented to do.  If the theory had been valid at any level there would have been a large jump in the countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and many hundreds of thousands of jobs created.  Instead we got almost no jobs and very little growth.  We were told that things would have been even worse if that money hadn’t done what it was supposed to do.  Try claiming anything like that in the private sector and see what happens. This along with the exact same inability to spend our way out of the great depression was definitive proof that the basic theory was flawed.

Now back to development and the source of funding. Partly because of the success of developing the atomic bomb in WW II in so short a period of time and partly as the growing but mistaken belief that large government was good, development money started to flow from the government to the private sector.  Nuclear power then space then computers (initially) were successful but when the spending began shifting from technology based to social policy spending like the “great society” and “war on poverty” we had a problem.  But we need some more history to understand what happened.

In any serious study of government one quickly finds that there was great fear of large powerful governments.  And for good reasons, the first reason is that over the last several hundred years all the major wars were started by countries with a strong central government. Then next look at history and all the economic chaos caused by government interference in the economy. Of course what government would ever admit they were wrong so that is mostly blamed on the private sector. History is full of debate and discussion on this issue and over time it became accepted thought that as Thomas Jefferson said “A government big enough to give you every thing that you need, is big enough to take away everything that you have …” and that is truer today then ever.  Think of all the recent scandals: Fast and Furious, Benghazi (Four dead in Libya), the IRS, the NSA, and now Health Care Insurance.   Besides the politicians lust for power a good part of the reason for this is that there is an inherent flaw in government spending.  The flaw is systemic one that can not be eliminated as many of the political theorists understood when our country was founded.

The flaw is that all government decisions are based on politics.  That means that almost all legislation is designed to either to buy votes e.g. Social Security, or to reward someone for political favors e.g. Solynda. There are almost no exceptions to this.  The main purpose of the U.S. Constitution was to make it “hard” for the federal government to actually do something or anything. The principle of separation of power was how that was done. Further there was a limit on their spending as there was no income tax. That was changed by the 16th amendment in 1913 that established the income tax system we now have. And that same year the Federal Reserve Bank was created and that eventually gave the government the ability to create serious amounts of fiat money. Again don’t believe me read Free To Chose written by Milton and Rose Friedman.

So combining the two big government and unlimited spending we have money taken, borrowed or taxed, from the private sector that is spent on government programs that are based on legislation made for political reasons. This is contrast to the private sector which only spends money that is justified by a documented future return on that investment.  Granted that the private sector is not perfect but we do find that it is self correcting in that bad decisions do put businesses out of business. Profit is the reward for doing good and the lack of profit means that no one wants your product or service and you go away.

The government on the other hand when it wants to spend on something can: borrow more, taxes more or worse just print more which is basically just putting a tax on everything.  Then if it doesn’t work, and it almost never does, they just ask for more money.   The Department of Energy (DOE) was created to make us energy independent and we are much worse off today then when it was founded.  The Department of Education, now Health Education and Welfare, was created to improve education and even after changing the scoring system education is worse now then it ever was.  Only two examples there are many more. And yet after decades of no good results and billions spent they both claim they need more money to their job.

The most egregious current policy related to development is that based on the elimination of CO2 emissions.  The reason is that a critical requirement for plants to grow, CO2 has now been determined to be pollutant. This policy is of course the government program to buy the votes of the farmers be they private or corporate by subsidizing corn production to make into ethanol to make E85 gasoline. This program makes no sense at any technical or economic level and was never anything more then a way to buy votes from environmentalist and farmers.  It is not energy efficient since it takes more energy to make then it produces.  And by diverting good crop land to growing corn for E85 instead of food it raises the price of food not just in this country but world wide as less corn is available for export and what is grown is more expensive. No one today with knowledge on the subject will agree that this is a good idea.  But once started it, like any government program, cannot be stopped.

Another current government induced policy with very questionable benefits is the forced switch from cheap incandescent lamps to expensive compact florescent lamps (CFL’s). The logic is that the 10% efficient incandescent lamps will be replaced by 50% efficient CFL lamps and that will save a lot of electricity.  Less electricity means less pollution, CO2 and mercury. Although technically true there are major offsets that have been minimized by studies that are not completely valid.  The first reason is that all the energy from the lamps ends up in the building where it is installed mostly at night for obvious reasons.  It’s also colder at night and so the heat of the lamp is an offset against the heating load of the building.  The less lamp heat there is the more gas or electricity that must be used to maintain the set temperature.  This effect can completely offset the gain in cold climates.  There probably is some reduction over all but not what is claimed.

The other more serious issue is with the mercury in the CFL’s.  The EPA claims that the landfill emissions from CFL lamps is lees then that emitted from power plants making the electricity and therefore it’s a gain for the environment.  Whether that claim is true or not the real issue is broken lamps in the home where most of these CFL’s are going.  This more serious issue is not even considered in the EPA figures.  Whether this is a real problem or not I don’t know but considering this omission why would you believe a study that was not done by an independent lab.  If the government is promoting something they would be the last people that I would believe, just as I would be skeptical of the claim of a company promoting a product, at least until verified buy independent review e.g. Consumer reports.

One thing that is not understood with all government studies is the logic that they “have” to use to do these studies.  All government work is funded by legislation, law so to speak, and that legislation dictates that money be spent in certain ways, line item by line item. This method of funding and running departments includes the way that studies are done, which in some if not all cases dictates the methods to be used since the methods determine the costs. The bottom line to any government study is that although the report maybe 100% true in may also be meaningless if it did not consider all relevant items.  Before any government report can be used one must look at the law it refers to and what were the dictates governing the conduct of that study.  If you had only worked in the private sector you would not understand this process and how it can distort outcomes.

For example if you are in the U.S. military you do not exist for purposes of having a job even with the now professional military.  It was determined that the military did not keep track of their jobs the same way that civilians do and that since there was so few of them that they would just be ignored.  They were not worth tracking.  Is this a big deal maybe, maybe not, the point is that if you really wanted to know how many people were drawing a paycheck in the United States the government reports would not give you that number.  So we have a report that is correct to the accuracy available but yet doesn’t give us what we want to know.  All government work falls into this kind of quandary.

Some would say that our representatives are the only ones looking out for us, protecting us from greedy businessmen and Wall Street capitalists.  To those people I would say they are very, very wrong.  The politicians claim the private sector is the problem and therefore they need to be regulated; for example as in the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) that makes it a federal crime to trade on insider information. However when that legislation was written they, congress, exempted themselves from being covered. So they can and do make trades after being briefed by say the Fed in closed door meeting.  They make money on insider information that anyone else would go to jail for.  And in fact there are people and firms that watch what stocks or land or other things that our representatives buy or short and do the same since these watchers know that those representatives have inside information.  Another maneuver to make money that our representatives’ use is to buy land directly or indirectly near an interstate highway and then appropriate federal money for an interchange to be placed there thereby raising the value of the property they bought.

Not understanding the systemic flaws of governmental actions we have created a host of government departments and agencies that do nothing much but distort the free market.  There is no business in this country big or small that does not have to deal with local state and federal laws and regulations.  Whether these laws and regulations were done for good reasons or not the bottom line is that they put government in the companies as a partner that must be consulted at every step of running a business. These reports, costs, fees and taxes raise the price of the product and or services that companies provide and that is the primary reason that so many jobs have left this country.  CFL’s for example are all made outside the country as are all the “I” phones and “I” pads.

As government got bigger and bigger after WW II and the funded research in computers space and other technologies, money started to flow into the universities for research.  Initially maybe that was OK but soon direct government funding for research reached 30% of all research and of the remaining 70% of private money a good portion was directed at supplying product to the government. Today all the major private research labs are now gone with the exception of pharmaceuticals. With government now in practical control of the research funding they could funnel the money into areas that they wanted benefit or to reward supporters.  Pick winners and losers based on political decisions. Since the primary goal of politicians is, number one get reelected and two make money one can see that money was taken from the private sector passed through the government and then dispensed to companies and universities with political connections.  The recent book “Extortion” written by Peter Schweizer explains the process the politicians use in details that you really don’t want to know.

My opinion is that over 50% of that “grant” or “study” money is a pay back for political support (direct or indirect) and therefore the result of the work product was of little practical use to anyone.  All federal departments and agencies partake in this process since they are all run by political appointees. You would be shocked to see how much funding goes to grants from say the DOE to study non energy issues or to groups that have political agendas that match those in power.  Tens of thousands of non profits have been created to suck up of this free money.  This distortion also makes it hard to determine how much is being spent on the real reason for that agency or department to exist.  And by doing this the politicians create massive duplication whose only purpose is to create federal jobs.

Many would argue over these statements claiming that these issues are not all that bad and there is more good accomplished than bad.  This view is not supported by any facts.  We know from history that any government that tried to work from a central planning basis was soon gone.  The distortions that government policies create in the market place by improper allocation of costs soon cause these governments to collapse.  The old U.S.S.R. is a prime example; it lasted less then 70 years.  The leaders in China not being stupid saw what happened to Russia and rather then lose their power they opened up a limited free market and that saved their positions, at least for now.  This change is only a couple of dozen years in the making and economic policies can take generations to work out so the jury is still out on this one.

But we can look closer to home and see what it going on in Europe and the European Union (EU) today with their sovereign debt problem.  Their problem is very simple the politicians promised their citizens that they could work less and get more (from the government), someone else would pay the bill.  They got away with this for many years only because the United States covered their costs of protection by stationing our military there.  But even without significant military costs they still couldn’t spend enough so they borrowed money, by in essence forcing their banks to buy their bonds, their sovereign debt. Now they are paying the price the debt service is getting out of control and it’s very likely that the EU will break up in 2012.  The point to this discussion is that big government is bad and that any big government will collapse the country that it is in within 40 to 60 years of becoming the dominant player in that economy.

The federal government of the United States now represents over 25% of the economy and once the take over of the health care sector is completed with “single Payer” it will be approaching 50% but worse if we also look at state and local spending we will be way over 50% and probably closer to 60% within five or six years, assuming the health care legislation is not reversed. Since right now the federal government is borrowing almost 25% of what it spends and that there is no way to close that gap with taxes there is a very, very big problem about to hit us.

Sometime in early 2012, the ratio of U.S. sovereign debt to gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded 100% and now in early 2014 it’s grown to over 110% of GDP.  Worse yet is that the ratio is increasing at an alarming rate such that possibly within five years the United States will be where Greece was when their debt exceeded their ability finance.  That is what triggered the European problem that they have not yet been able to solve; and it now seems likely that Greece will pull out of the EU rather then fix their problem. What happens after that is not good and that is why there is so much current effort (including the Fed loaning the EU dollars) to not let that happen.  Unfortunately, there is no way to fix the problem unless the Greek people would give up much of what they were promised by their government.  So far they seem unwilling to discuss that.

The Greeks are maybe the worse offenders but they are not alone.  Spain, Italy and France to name a few are not immune.  The recent S&P downgrading of many EU banks as well as the downgrading of the U.S. treasuries last year were predictors of what is coming down the pike. This sovereign debt bubble is a lot worse then the housing bubble was and it is all caused by the various government of each of these countries doing something that doesn’t and didn’t make financial sense.

Once the government gets to between 25% and 50% of the economy what’s left of the private sector focuses almost completely on getting government work not what the private individuals want — the government becomes their biggest and in some cases their only customer. It is obvious what that means as the politicians control policy and by doing so they pick winners and losers based on politics.  This is called crony capitalism verse free market capitalism and is what most of the rest of the world has.  There is a semi-independent private sector that exists mostly at the whim of the central government. Costs and prices are distorted by policy and things grind to a halt.

We are not there yet but we are not far from getting there.  However don’t get me wrong I am not for pure laissez faire as that could be just as bad as crony capitalism.  There must be a balance and its up to the citizens to determine that. If nothing else the one thing that should be kept in mind when making that choice is; that it is always bad to concentrate power.  And that those with power will always try to do just that. There is no justification for that and it has always and will always turn out very bad.

In summary although some of what the various government agencies publish is valid it should not be taken that everything they publish is gospel.  There are many factors that go into anything the government does; crony politics, blaming the private sector for everything that is wrong and never taking any responsibility for anything they have done are three to keep in mind. If you treat the government just like any other source of information and know there will be a bias then you will be much better off.

What really caused the Great Depression?


Politics not Monetary Policy Rules

John Maynard Keynes, a gifted English mathematician (not either an economist or a political philosopher), developed a comprehensive set of theories during the early stages of the Great Depression that were published in his 1935 book titled The General Theory of Employment Interest, and Money. Keynes developed his theories in an attempt to explain why we had the Great Depression and how he thought we could get out of it and further to prevent like contractions from happening again. His theories of an active federal government and government spending from taxed or borrowed money are the bases that our government is using today in an attempt at getting us out of the jobs predicament that we have now which is very much like the situation that existed in the mid 1930s.

The General Theory was designed by Keynes to replace Laissez-faire (minimum government) economics as first promoted by Adam Smith in his 1776 book An Inquiry into the Nature and the Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Which was actually a follow on book to his first book The Theory of Moral Sentiments published in 1759; the two books fit well together and should be taken and studied as a set. Smith’s free market is the exact opposite of Keynes’ views that included that savings were bad and that an active government should borrow money to spend during a down turn and then (maybe) pay it off on the upside.  Although there was some good in Keynes’ work, all the politicians back then heard was that savings were bad so that gave them the economic justification to tax wealth and even worse, if that was possible, that deficit spending was “required” to promote consumption and that by doing these things it would bring the economy to full employment Combined with the activist government concept this was a license to go wild as this justified anything the politicians wanted to do as long as it was paid for with a tax, as we recently found out with the Supreme Court ruling on the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act 0f 2010  or Obama Care as it is now known.

In the early 30’s as the economic contraction continued to deepen, the citizens decided to try new leadership and Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) was elected in November 1932. However, between the times he was elected in November 1932 and took office in March 1933, the worst of the three banking contractions of the Great Depression started in January 1933. Drastic action was required and during the next two years FDR’s program was known as the New Deal which actually ended up being two programs the first New Deal (One) from 1933-1934 that was not working as planned.  Then in 1935 a second and much more controversial New Deal (Two) 1935-1938 was instituted presumably this was based on Keynes’ radical new theories which gave Roosevelt the economic justification for what he was doing and what would, in time, become known as Keynesian Economics.

Technically the programs of FDR didn’t work, but the citizens saw the government doing things and they gave the government the credit for the small recovery that occurred.  Back then just as what happens today — in politics — the politician takes all the credit for any good that occurs and blame others for all the bad. The outbreak of World War II in Europe is what really got us out of the Great Depression as the United States sold war material to the allies with Lend Lease.

Then after the war the pent up demand for civilian goods that had been repressed along with the massive rebuilding efforts of Europe’s Marshal Plan and Asia’s GARIOA is actually what drove the economy for several decades. Keynes and FDR got the credit even though the theory was wrong and FDR’s policy didn’t work. However what actually caused the banking collapse in America that started this black ball rolling was never fully understood by economists and so Keynes views took hold in the economic community; it would not be until 18 years after the end of World War II before the truth would be known.

Milton Friedman along with Anna Schwartz published an almost 900 page book in 1963 titled A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 which along with other works of Friedman’s got him a Nobel Prize in Economics in 1976. Friedman and Schwartz showed how the Great Depression was caused by the actions, or more properly the inactions, of the Federal Reserve, first in allowing the credit bubble that lead to the stock market collapse in 1929 (excusable with the knowledge of the times) and then in collapsing the U.S. banking system (not excusable under any circumstances) by not following the methods that were then known for preventing this very thing from happening.  Keep in mind that preventing a monetary contraction and/or a series of banking failures was the stated main purpose for creating the Federal Reserve in 1913.  This work of theirs was the first explanation of what actually caused the Great Depression and this solved the issue which had puzzled economists for almost 30 years. This work of Friedman and later works by others, as well, showed how Keynes was wrong about savings and deficit spending. This is a very critical finding as Keynes views on economics and FDR’s policies were accepted as gospel and those policies have now taken us to the very edge of word wide economic collapse.

A side note with relevance here is that when the Federal Reserve (FED) was formed by an act of congress (HR 7837) and signed into law as Pub. L. 63-43 on December 23, 1913 a banker named Benjamin Strong Jr. one of those that developed the concept of the FED was appointed as the Governor of the New York Federal Reserve bank at that time. From its inception and until his untimely death in October 1928 he ran the New York FED which had the lead in monetary policies since most major transactions especially international were conducted in New York City where all the main U.S. banks were located.  According to Friedman’s work   Strong did everything by the book and discounting minor ups and downs up until his death the economy ran as smoothly as could be expected as a result.

Strong besides being a very knowledgeable man had a dynamic personality and others ended up in his shadow, so after his death the FED was reorganized to prevent one person from having the power that Strong had.   His successor George L. Harrison although knowledgeable did not have the personality of Strong and with the FED operating rules being changed in March 1930 he was not able to do what he knew needed to be done, so in 1930, 1931 and 1933 there were three waves of banking failures that swept across the country each worse than the preceding one.  The result was almost the total destruction of the United States banking system and the Great Depression.  Friedman states that if Strong had lived only a few more years, he died at 55, and if he had done what he had been doing while he was the Governor of the New York Federal Reserve that the Great Depression and all it destroyed would probably never have happened. Friedman did more than state that as his opinion he showed in detail how the polices of the FED and the tools they had available to them were more than sufficient to accomplish the task of preventing the banking collapses which were the real cause of the Great Depression not the stock market collapse in 1929.

But the biggest kicker was that before the FED was established to prevent banking collapses the New York banks had come up with a method to stop these contractions on their own, and that it was used on one occasion in particular a market contraction in 1907,.  Although the method wasn’t handled perfectly the logic within it was sound. The creation of the FED stopped banks individually from doing what needed to be done and established the FED as the only agency responsible for preventing banking contractions. The policies that should have been used were well known and had been used before so there was really no excuse for the FED to not allow Governor Harrison to do what he wanted to do.  It was only the FED boards’ members not wanting Harrison to follow in Strong’s footsteps that created the Great Depression.  Sadly this is what big government always gets you ‘politics’ not what really needs to be done.

But now back to our current problems; the FED is at it again with its easy money programs and massive Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. Technically what they are doing is what needed to be done in 1930 and since it was known and not used there was no excuse for what the FED allowed to happen. But as in most things there is also to much of a good thing and since the FED is more driven by politics than sound monetary policy the QE programs have been carried out way to long and that has created some serious distortions in the economy and is one of the reasons that job growth has been so anemic. The eventual result of the current FED policies will be high inflation and all we can hope for now is that it doesn’t cause us to lose the “Reserve” currency status we now have.  If that would happen we would have “hyper” Inflation and that would bring economic destruction like never experienced in this country before.

The purpose of this post was to inform the readers of what “might” happen and that they should watch current events very closely so they can protect their assets. The current softening in the emerging economies and the resulting downward trend in the markets could be a sign that currency problems are now developing.

Why have so few jobs been created especially since 2008?


Comparative Disadvantage

Over the past 30 years maybe even a bit longer there has been a steady and growing shift of manufacturing based jobs out of the country and into the Pacific Rim countries for example; Japan, Korea, Indonesia, India, Vietnam and China. We were told not to worry about this as those old obsolete factory jobs were being replaced by new service jobs in accounting, finance, health care, legal services and tech related development.  We were told that this was no different then when the United States shifted labor out of agriculture into manufacturing. Therefore don’t worry about it, things will work out and be even better.  We were told that this was called globalization and the free trade between nations was the way to prosperity for all.  And according to Adam Smith in his book The Wealth of Nations this was, in fact, true and was explained by the principle of comparative advantage which we must understand first before we can understand the opposite of disadvantage which is what we have.

Comparative advantage is a result of one group, or person, doing one thing very well and another group, or person, doing something else very well.  They then strike a bargain between them to trade some of each of their product or production to the other at some ratio that they both agree to.  The result of this is that both groups, and/or both people, have more then if they had tried to make or produce everything themselves, as in jack of all trades master of none. This is a key concept and for it to work properly there must be a “free” movement of goods and services between the two groups, or people, and no “interference” between the bargaining that sets the exchange ratio.  Meaning no outside influences like government and regulation which will always distort the process either some or a lot.

Today we find that the manufacturing jobs are gone but we also find that the service jobs are gone as well, in fact some of the service jobs left faster then the manufacturing jobs.  Try calling for any tech support or customer service and you will, in many cases, end up talking to someone in India.  Although it must be said that there has been some blowback on this as it was very hard to get someone to understand you. So what happened — what went wrong? Was it evil greedy business men looking to make a few cents more on a product because labor was cheaper someplace else?  Was it labor unions driving up the cost of labor?  Was in Health Care being to expense?  Was it Wall Street financiers finding ways to manipulate markets?  Was it the evil Oil companies ripping us off?

Actuality the answer is none of those! The question can be best answered by using a line from an old comic strip “Pogo” created by Walt Kelly from comments he first made in 1953 where he said, “We have met the Enemy and he is us!” So the answer is that we the citizens are the problem!

That is actually a parody of a message sent in 1813 from U.S. Navy Commodore Oliver Hazard Perry to General William Henry Harrison after the Battle of Lake Erie, stating, “We have met the enemy, and they are ours.” Kelly was a master of satire and parody and produced Pogo in syndicated form from 1949 to 1973 when he died from complications from diabetes. The strip was carried on by Kelly’s wife and son for two more years before it was stopped.

The reason that we the “Citizens” is the answer to why this happened is that we the “Citizens” let the politicians convince us that what was going on with globalization was OK and we should not worry.  We believed them even though it didn’t sound quite right to us. But they told us they were the “best and the brightest so we believed them. And there were some good times originally until the dot com bust and then 9/11 and Enron after that the cancer took hold with a vengeance and the jobs were soon almost all gone.  But there were signs early on like Billy Joel saw in his song Allen Town from a 1982 Album ‘The Nylon Curtain’.  Then there was the 1987 movie Wall Street Directed by Oliver Stone starting Michael Douglas, Charlie Sheen and Daryl Hannah, with its warnings about breaking up companies for profits.  And we can throw in Disclosure a 1994 movie also starting Michael Douglas which is about the games being played in Silicon Valley with all the production (a side issue) in Indonesia.

While the country was being dismembered one company and one job at a time we the Citizens were worried about all the really important things in life like; gay rights, abortion rights, civil rights, the environment, women’s rights, animal rights, handicapped peoples rights, emigration rights, affordable housing, breaking the glass ceiling, not offending anyone (Political Correctness), taking God out of everything, and not teaching anything of substance in our schools so that no one would feel bad because they couldn’t learn.  So today we have all those rights in spades but no jobs. Which was really more important?

Having lived through the 1980’s as a businessman in production related industries in a senior management position the effects of the political policies of the 1980’s were very apparent.  No one seemed to care about what was happening to business their focus was solely on all those issues listed in the previous paragraph which by the way is not a complete listing it’s just a sample.  But why would these social issues matter to businesses and job creation? And what does any of this have to do with comparative disadvantage?

First we need to discuss business and its purpose which is to make a profit so that the investors can be paid back for making their investment in time and/or money.  If a business can not make a profit that it can “keep” then the investors will either not invest or they will sell their position (at a loss) and the business will close. Therefore no business can stay in business without making a profit. So by simple extrapolation profits are good not bad.

They are the reward for doing a good job

The lack of them is the penalty for doing a bad job

So how does a business make a profit?  Well there is really only one way and that is to sell a product for more then what it costs to make the product and in addition cover all the costs of being in business.  A key point here that most people do not appreciate is that the only thing that matters to an investor is the net cash left after the deduction of all expenses; which includes production costs, operating costs and all business taxes.  So it’s easy to see that to have anything left over to pay the investors, the price of the product or service has to be greater then all the costs of providing that product or service, including taxes.

Anything that raises any part of the cost of doing business “must” be passed on to the consumer in the form of “higher” prices.  Even Adam Smith knew this, it’s in his book.

Therefore if society determines that businesses must include social costs as for example in complying with OSHA, EPA, NLRB rules and providing HEALTH CARE (a complete listing of rules and regulations would fill this entire paper) as well as property taxes and income taxes the costs of doing business are by definition driven up.  And therefore as the costs are driven up the businesses must raise their prices or go out of business. Their revenue must always be greater then their costs, to stay in business. Or one other is by government subsidies (additional revenue) but then the government needs higher taxes to do that. And the government also gets the right to participate in that business.

Now we get to comparative disadvantage for we in America do not have a closed society we allow others to sell goods and provide services in this country.  Discounting transportation cost which are minimized by huge cargo container ships we have goods coming into this country from countries that do not have the same social cost structure that companies here have.  American companies are therefore at a comparative disadvantage.  And to be honest the actual direct labor component, even with unions, maybe the smallest element in their high cost structure.

For example the hard push today to “Green Energy” which costs more to produce as any technical person will agree to.  According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2005 the average cost of electricity in the United States was $.052 per kWh and in China it was $.032 per kWh. This is before the big push to renewable sources which will drive up the cost of electricity here even higher. For example, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in their report of H.R. 2454 (the clean energy act) electric rates $ per kWh could easily double during the time frame of the report if that law was ever enacted.  If the business in China were paying on average only 55.2% of those of their U.S. competitors now, that is a major Comparative Advantage that they have.  Further it would seem that that advantage will get bigger as the EPA pushes to implement its clean energy agenda. This is being done through rules and regulation by the EPA even without the passage of any carbon reduction legislation being passed.

If we add to that all the other social costs of doing business here (we are not considering the social merit here only the costs) from say worker safety and pollution for example we quickly find that it would be almost impossible for any U.S. company to produce anything in our country that could not be produced and delivered here cheaper from a foreign source.  It does not require a degree in economics or finance to see that this is just not going to work. Common Sense alone tells us that the system our current leaders have put in, because we told them we wanted these social benefits, welfare programs and regulations, and this will continue to drive production related business out of this county.

Walt Kelly, “We have met the Enemy and he is us!”

However our politicians, although they gave us the rules and regulation we asked them for, didn’t explain to us the consequences of those rules and regulations as they became apparent. As we saw in the songs and movies of the 1980’s even the entertainment industry saw what was happening.  So why didn’t the politicians do something — well it was really very simple.  As the trade imbalance increased and cheap goods poured in, through Wall-Mart initially, the countries that were flooding the U.S. with cheap products elected to buy U.S. treasures bonds (T-Bills) rather then products and services that were too expense to buy from the U.S.

So what most of us would say?  Well as it turns out this is the most critical element of the predicament that we are now in.  Our elected officials being from the best schools and being very educated (that’s what they tell us and is the reason we are supposed to listen to them) knew what was happening but since the countries that were giving us the cheap goods were buying T-Bills the politicians had more money to play with and so to them having those extra funds meant they could pay for things that they otherwise could not provide (to us).  This made them look good and got them re-elected. And they could always blame the job losses on the evil businesses that just didn’t care.

There has been a lot of talk by economists that claim this is of no concern as eventually those countries will have to move out of T-Bills so it doesn’t matter.  Although technically that may be true in “economics,” in the real world its nothing but farm pollution.  For example we are told that foreign purchases of T-Bills hold down the rate of interest which is good.  True yes, but rather then use that low interest rate to build infrastructure and promote business investment we used it to finance our social programs. The problem with that was that the social transformations increased the cost of doing business which made the situation worse.

It was an absolutely perfect positive feed back situation working like this: as the foreign purchases increased the government had more funds to make social changes which then raised the cost of doing business, which drove more business out, which then resulted in more imports, which then result in more money for the government to play with. There was just no incentive to stop this from happening in the government; it would have stopped the money flow to them.

In addition as the businesses closed or moved operations out of the country there were both fewer businesses to pay taxes and fewer employees to pay them as a result.  So with fewer and fewer workers the tax burden per worker was forced higher and higher. Fewer workers meant the government needed to provide more services and therefore the government needed more funds and the resulting growing deficit was financed increasingly by foreigners.

In simple terms the foreign purchases of T-Bills represents the hidden social cost of U.S. policies compared to those in the rest of the world that is bringing us our products.

In the study of economics one quickly learns that in the “long run” most everything works out.  The artificially induced distortions by governments and rulers are never sustainable for very long.  Look what happened to the workers paradise the U.S.S.R. it only lasted 70 some years before collapsing. China lasted even a shorter time maybe only about 50 years before making a major change and letting a private sector develop there. Although to be fair they did see what happened to the Russians and so making a change was the only way to avoid a similar collapse for them. They did stay in power which was the really important part to them.

We can not by law or regulation overrule these three things: human nature, the laws of physics and engineering or the principles of economics.  An economics professor of mine one told us in class that the only thing any government can do is to create “shortages” or “surpluses” and he was 100% right.

We have the Department of Energy and a shortage of energy

We have the Department of Heath and Human Services and we have a surplus of poor

We have the Department of Labor and a shortage of jobs

We have the Federal Reserve and that has given us both a shortage of and a surplus of money.

Neither the shortage of energy nor the surplus of poor nor the shortage of jobs nor the swings in money existed as a major problem prior to the creation of these agencies.  Each of these government departments was created to fix a problem that at the time was a short term problem not a structural problem.  And each time this happened we lost a little bit of our Comparative Advantage for each of these changes added more rules and regulation that had to be followed.

So now these and many other government actions and social issues have eliminated most all of the Comparative Advantage that the U.S. once had.  The options for getting it back are slim to none unless we take drastic action — and very soon.

So where has this taken us then what have all these really smart and educated politicians given us with their politics?   Well it a very easy thing to answer — no jobs!  Americans want to work and take care of themselves and their families they don’t want some big government telling them what they can or can not do.  The Citizens can develop a feeling in them collectively when major shifts occur;.how this occurs is not the subject of this post but the facts are that the public, the Citizens, know that things are not right.  They may not know the details because they have been hidden but they do know that the country is in deep trouble.

One last comment in this post is that there is a fix for at least a part of this.  The process of other countries buying U.S. Treasurers in lieu of buy things here is the main reason we have lost so many jobs. In a free market this would not have happened but since there is no true free market we need some way to compensate for this.

There are two ways this could be done although neither would never be done, and it’s relatively simple.  The first method would be that Congress could pass a law that would state: Starting immediately U.S. Treasuries will no long be sold to anyone that is not a U.S. citizen or a U.S. corporation.  And if a Corporation then it must be at least three fourths’ owned by U.S. Citizens.  All Treasuries that are now held by non qualifying entities will be held to maturity but will not be refinanced.  This will force the money into product services or other non government equities of some kind.

This will raise the interest rate for government securities but that will only put the cost of this kind of borrowing in line with where it should be to begin with.   The effect of this will be to raise stock prices and force the government to be more realistic with its expenditures.  Obviously the change will be traumatic but it will be better then other alternatives as described elsewhere in the book.

The second method would be somewhat easier to implement but it would be just as confrontational.  This method is one of tariffs but not as we presently know or think of them; we add a different twist to them.  If we agree that the various social costs in the United States are in fact driving up business costs and if we agree that the corollary to that is many of the countries that import to us do not have those same costs then there is a way to fix this.

We would set up two tariffs the first being a Social tariff and the second an Environmental tariff.  A task force would be set up consisting of the countries Business and Unions but no politicians.  They would determine what those two non business (not related to producing the product or service) related costs are.  They would also look at the various countries that ship goods here and estimate what each of those counties costs are.  Once that has been accomplished a comparison can be developed between them and two tariffs established one for social costs and one for environmental costs.  A particular country could have none, one or both applied and they would be administered separately.

It would not be reasonable to implement something like this all at once and so it would be phased in over time, say ten years, at 10% of the total differential added each year.  Offsetting this would be an annual review of the tariffs such that if a country got worse of better vis-a-vis the United States the numbers would be adjusted up or down.  A system like this would force countries doing business with us to either clean up their countries or pay the penalty through the tariffs. Over time the comparative disadvantage would be reduced and that would allow some of the lost jobs to be brought back here. The offset to this is that the costs of goods would go up and that must be understood itf we are going to protect our jobs.

Neither of these solutions is desirable in themselves but the alternative of continuing the present system is much worse.  We must have jobs in this country commensurate with the abilities of the citizens and that means there must be a range of jobs available that encompass the full range from manual labor to university professors. Obviously those are the extremes and the bulk must fall in the middle such that the average person can hold a full time job that pays a decent rate.  If we as a society do not provide that then we have failed both as a society and as people.

Disturbing Trends


Over the past few decades there has been a movement created to make a great many changes to our society to correct for the various injustices that are perceived to have existed.  For example we have, as a society, decided that it is wrong to exclude any American, regardless of cultural background, gender, sexual orientation or religious affiliation, from the opportunity to participate in public affairs of any kind.  Ensuring that every American Citizen has equality of opportunity is an admirable idea as well as being part of our core beliefs; where we as a society often go astray is in the implementation of valid ideas.

We must remember: Our society is the result of thousands of years of development.  Culture and beliefs cannot magically be changed with the passage of a few new laws.  Real social change takes generations, and, in fact, changes that are imposed suddenly–and artificially–can only create new problems and backlash.  Worse they can disrupt the very fabric of a society.

As it stands, the laws that we have passed to prevent the exclusion of minorities from our political and economic processes proceed from the assumption that minority individuals (women, African-Americans, Asian-Americans, Hispanics, etc.) are entitled to opportunities because they come from minority backgrounds, not because they possess particular qualifications.

The original idea of not allowing the separate but “equal” concept that existed prior to the fifties for “blacks” to continue was fine, for it was clearly not equal.  The thinking went astray after that change when politicians decided that all minorities, and there was no end to them, could be made to believe that they were “entitled” to special treatment (going to the head of the line so to speak to make up for past injustices). There is little doubt that today, individuals are promoted in part because of their race or gender not because they are the best for the job.

This entitlement culture resulted in a continuing fragmentation of our society into “special interest” groups each vying for victimization status.  The result being that political and other decisions can no longer be made without consideration of the perceived impact on these special interest groups, regardless of the benefits these decisions may otherwise bestow.   A minority person is often appointed to a public position for no other reason than to provide “fair representation” of their minority group.  So, as a consequence, we end up discussing a person’s heritage or gender (real of perceived) not their ability to get the job done.

Another variation of current social thought. There was a television commercial a while back advertising a book on women and women’s issues that was written by a woman doctor.  This commercial implied that only a woman could understand the problems of another woman.  Therefore implying, only a female physician could truly provide effective treatment for a woman.  In other words, men do not experience women’s problems so they cannot possibly deal with them effectively.  It is easy to see that this logic is not only flawed, but is simply absurd.   By extension, only a doctor who has had cancer would be qualified to treat a cancer patient.   Most people would not buy the latter idea, but many are falsely led into serious consideration of ideas like that promoted by the “women’s” commercial, because these ideas carry the weight of “political correctness.”

Then we have the proposition that qualifications no longer mean anything.   In fact, the need for qualifications can be avoided altogether by the use of such techniques as “gender normalization:” This works like this, women are given “points” to compensate for physical differences with men — in strength, for example — in order to compete for jobs with physical requirements with males especially in the military.  Alternatively, the need for physical strength is written out of the job requirement so that women can qualify.   What we are doing with this is developing a social handicapping system, which penalizes skill and ability, bringing standards down to the level of those of lesser ability or achievement.

Along with the above social issues we have also saddled ourselves with the concept of “political correctness.” In plain language, “political correctness” means the prohibition of doing or saying “anything” which may offend anyone for any reason be it real or imaginary.”  Our language has even been modified to reflect this attempt to avoid offense of any kind.

Then we have the feminization of society.  For example, with the development of birth control methods, American women were, for the most part, freed from the burden of unwanted pregnancies, not a problem.   Then, partially because they had more time for other activities, women were put under pressure to work outside the home and to take on leadership roles in business and public life.  They are undeniably very capable of assuming these positions.

Unfortunately, when women assume the responsibilities previously held almost exclusively by men, women not only change the social dynamics of the work place with lots of unintended consequences, but they abdicate their former responsibilities as caregivers to our children.  Since the child-rearing skills of our women produced the men that conquered the world, we are losing a formidable body of skills, indeed.

The other side of the coin is that women are displacing men in the work force, and the men therefore must, in turn, become the caregivers to our children giving rise to a new tern “house husband.”  So it can be seen that we could have a double negative for if the women displace talented men in the work place and if the men aren’t as good as women in child rearing that the net affect on society will be very negative from a performance perspective.

Women are now entering all fields and occupations in the United States in a hell-bent race to “gender neutralize” everything.  But if jobs are to be doled out to people in proportion to their percentage of the population (quotas are the only way to be sure this happens), eventually all positions in all fields will be dominated by women, since there are more women than men in this country.  One documented result is we now have more women graduation from college then men as a result of this policy.

It also means that, to a greater and greater extent, household duties will have to be assumed by men.   Implicit in this train of events is the logic that household work and raising children is demeaning work, to be performed by people at the lowest social level (i.e. the smallest percentage of the population, which, in this case, means men).  The twisted logic inherent in trying to accomplish this kind of transformation is beyond comprehension.  Whether this next statement is political correct or not it is true that there are very real hard wired gender based roles is society.  If we ignore that then we do so at our own peril.

Another very popular social trend is “multiculturalism,” which is being touted as a way to make everyone feel good about themselves, in this case about their background.  As is true with all such “programs,” multiculturalism sounds like a positive idea, but, in fact, has a very negative and detrimental effect in practice.  Inherent in the multiculturalism belief structure is that all cultures are equal and no one culture is better then another.

If someone really believes that is true then there is no reason for anyone to immigrate here for here in America we have a very different culture then exists anywhere else.  The quote below from Teddy Roosevelt in 1919 gives a very good view on being an American.

”Rn the first place we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin.

But this is predicated upon the man’s becoming in very fact an American, and nothing but an American … There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all.

We have room for but one flag, the American flag, and this excludes the red flag, which symbolizes all wars against liberty and civilization, just as much as it excludes any foreign flag of a nation to which we are hostile … We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language … and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”

Theodore Roosevelt January 03, 1919

 To a great extent but not solely the result of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 elections politicians that did not believe that the American system of the past 200 years was any good — were put in power.  Their view of what the country should be like as shown partially in this writing is not what the Citizens of the country think it is and so a very serious conflict is developing.  The Tea Party movement is just the beginning of that conflict.  This work has been written to give the Political and Social background for why this ‘change’ is being fought so hard by such as large portion of the Citizens.

We’ll end the discussion now with a final thought on society and political correctness.  Much to-do about nothing has been made in reverence to ‘names’ that people are called and how it affects’ them and how bad that is.  Well the author of this work has been called just about every name in the book from ‘baby killer’ to “racist.’  And he was discriminated against in the job market because he was a Vietnam vet.  Is there anyone in the world that has not been discriminated against at some time, probably not so the discussion is only on degree?

So what, is the proper response to negative words for if you allow anything like that to have any affect on you then you have given those that do or say things you don’t like “Power Over You.”  Their words are a Taunt made to you and if you react to them that reaction is what they want. Don’t give them the satisfactions of making you react, ignore it. You know if there is anything that you have done that is bad and for most of us it is not true.  But one thing is for sure if you react to those taunts in any way they will not stop.  By not reacting to the offending words you ‘Maintain that Power’ and you become a stronger person.

Consider this old saying which was told me by my mom after some confrontation involving name calling in grade school. It is as true today as it ever was.  Bullying and taunting today causes more problems then they ever did in the past because the kids today are sensitized to things like name calling.  They have never been told what my mom told me.

“Sticks and Stones May Break my Bones but Names will Never Hurt Me.”

That is unless you let them hurt you by your reaction and then you are at fault for the choice was yours after all.