Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 21, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi AE….think I finally get your message about money supply vs inflation. But aren’t we just dealing with a difference of semantics? If the gov’t prints endless amounts of currency, that HAS to. at some point, impact prices etc. which in turn, eventually leads to a collapse in confidence. (Savers can’t afford to buy anything.) What am I missing here?

HS

ANSWER: It’s a question of what comes first – the chicken or the egg.  First, we have the collapse in tangible assets and people will then hoard their money and spend less fearing the future. The revenue declines for governments which then forces the government to create more which use to be debasement before paper money, and today we have debt which can be posted as collateral to even trade which is now also money that pays interest as it first began during the American Civil War.

The classic definition of hyperinflation is taken from the 1956 work by Phillip Cagan who wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation. Cagan defined a hyperinflationary episode as beginning in the month that the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%, and ends when it drops below 50% per month. This is the standard definition.

The general population keeps the bulk of their wealth in non-monetary assets primarily real estate which made the 2007-2009 financial crisis far more serious than a stock market crash.
The higher middle-class population outside the USA view monetary amounts, not in terms of the local currency but more so in dollars taking an international perspective. Only Americans tend to be myopic and see the world all in dollars. That’s why you constantly see these people yell the dollar will crash without ever looking outside the USA even once.

The international view of assets in dollars is also a direct result of not just the fact that the USA is the largest core economy, but the dollar is the reserve currency of the world BECAUSE there are also no restrictions on issuing debt in dollars in foreign countries imposed by the USA, and the fact that the US dollar has never been canceled. You can still spend a $5 bill from 1861.

While the analysis by academics has focused on classifying hyperinflation, they seem to lack any understanding of the real causes of all hyperinflations attributing them to have been caused by government budget deficits financed by currency creation. Peter Bernholz analyzed 29 hyperinflations (following Cagan’s definition) and concluded that at least 25 of them took place because of money creation.

These academics have also wrongly assumed that the necessary condition for hyperinflation is the use of paper money. They obviously lack any understanding of the monetary system pre-1700 when coins were gold or silver coins. The idea that hyperinflations in history are confined to paper money has seriously harmed the entire understanding of the mechanism behind hyperinflation. They see to have ZERO understanding of the history of coinage which provides a definitive historical record.

They will typically point to the French hyperinflation of 1789–1796 and claim that it took place after the introduction of a non-convertible paper currency, the assignat. They have for more than 100 years looked at this idea that money has to be commodity-based. They never apply that theory as to how Germany, Japan, and China have all risen to the top without gold and Russia, rich in gold, has languished economically.

Perhaps it simply takes a trader to see how hyperinflation even begins well in advance. Hoover explained how capital acted in 1931 rushing from one currency to the next as nation after nation defaulted, but any professional trader who was on a dealing desk in 2010 when Greece turned to the IMF for help saw exactly the same patterns. When they drew first blood with the collapse of Greece, they turned and asked: Who is next? They started selling Portugal, Spain, Italy and were even moving against France. That is how a REAL financial contagion operates.

Historically, it is NOT that people lose confidence in the money because the government is simply creating more! It is the collapse in the CONFIDENCE in the economy first (absent war), and then this migrates to the CONFIDENCE in government collapsing. This has historically led to hoarding when the money is just coins or converting to other currencies (capital flight) which has been paper (i.e. Germany & France). It is the sequence that then leads to forcing the government to enter a death spiral where they create money to try to maintain their existence. The government will typically then collapse.

This is the same problem with the myth about interest rates. The claim is that rising interest rates are BEARISH. All they remember is the tail-end. The rates rise and the market declines. When you look at it objectively, markets rally with rising interest rates. Just look at this entire rally.

The ECB cut rates to negative in 2014. When we look at the Dax in Price and in dollars, the peak was March 2015. The lower interest rates have completely FAILED to “stimulate” the economy as has been the great expansion of the money supply.

This absurdity that simply increasing the money supply will cause inflation is the typical sales pitch for the last 50 years. If gold truly rallied to keep pace with inflation, then since 1980, it should be trading at the $12,000+ level. OBVIOUSLY, there is something else going on. This is where it takes a global perspective to understand when the breakout will come and precisely when will the CONFIDENCE shift from hoarding cash to spending it because it will be worth even less next month.

Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 21, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Why are bankers never prosecuted? The New York courts are not trustworthy. Can you explain why this is allowed to go one all the time?

SK

ANSWER: It is very simple and the shareholders are the ones who are being defrauded. The banks can routinely engage in fraud all they want. The individuals are NEVER prosecuted because the government knows they will not get huge fines from an individual. The bank is fined and pays vast amounts of money, but the bankers themselves are never prosecuted. It is raw corruption. The very same bankers go on to commit the very next crime. They get bonuses for the money they make, and if caught, they keep the bonus and the shareholders pay the fine.

I personally would NEVER recommend a bank stock for that reason. The bonuses were paid out even during the 2007-2009 crisis. The S&P 500 Financial Index just retest the 2007 high compared to the rest of the market. The corruption between the courts, the government, and the banks is starting to wear very thin.

Armstrong Economivs Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 17, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you see the Fed moving to digital currency and perpetual bonds simultaneously with other nations? I think it would be harder to pull off here, but then again, they may have no choice. I guess they have a lot of reasons to get rid of Trump, but there’s more on the side of rejecting it, at least for now.

Interesting that a few analysts, websites, newsletters… have been calling for a Fed move to digital, as soon as November 5th or January 2021. Seems optimistic. However, I haven’t heard anyone mention bond default through the transition to perpetual.

E

ANSWER: No. First of all, the US debt market is the only game in town. Europe has destroyed its bond market as has Japan. That is why they are trying to get rid of Trump to further their globalist agenda. However, the conservative Democrats will also reject it as well. Our political report will be up for sale on Monday which is not just 2020, but the next 12 years, The arrays are shocking when we run them on politics. There is an increasing risk that the Democratic Party will split just as the Republicans did in 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt started his Progressive Party. The Democrats face the same crisis – conservative (middle of the road) v extreme socialist left.

There are a host of problems. They cannot move to digital so easily because over 60% of paper dollars are outside USA used globally as the alternative. Today, the Treasury and Board of Governors staffs estimate that about 60% of all U.S. banknotes in circulation, or around $500 billion and growing, is held outside the United States. U.S. banknotes are the #1 hedge against the currencies in Europe and Asia because the USA has never canceled its currency so a $100 bill from 1934 is still valid which is not the case for any nation in Europe. The US printed $1,000, $5,000, and $10,000 notes in 1934 which are still legal tender.

It is not so easy for the USA to move digital and at best, it would have to be a two-tier system without canceling the paper money.

Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Oct 17, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Interest on savings instruments (i.e. CD) for 1 yr terms is non-existent at <= 1.0%.  Why would interest rates increase in a digital currency system/world?

IS

ANSWER: The only reason rates would rise is by simultaneously converting the debt to perpetual. They have to end Keynesian Economics. They cannot raise rates as long as they have to buy the debt as in Europe. Therefore, we see most countries preparing for the real BIG BANG which is the default on dent by converting outstanding debt to perpetual, then they no longer need to artificially suppress interest rates they cannot raise if the debt is still issued.

I tend to get called in because they know I will say the truth. I do not take funds from any group and we pride ourselves on independence. It is a club because unless you have been called in by one government you will not get into others. Very interesting criteria. Nevertheless, I believe you will see this simultaneously. A digital currency swap will allow then the perfect excuse to change the debt structure and then they do not have to outright default.

Big Bang began in 2015.75 within about one year of them moving to negative interest rates in 2014. The next crack is due 2021 and the big break post-2024. We are now entering the next phase and we are running out of time. That is what these lockdowns are really about. They know civil unrest will rise when the public realizes that the old financial systems are collapsing.Categories:Bonds

Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Oct 14, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, you mentioned several times now, that the ECB MUST convert to a digital Euro. I have done speeches about that based on a paper from the IMF (Christine Lagarde) last year, in which they too discuss how to do it. But I have a serious question regarding timing.

I live in Germany and I would say that WE (the country) are not ready for such a move yet. Let alone many people. I have people in my family who still don’t have smartphones (just plain mobile).

I am completely with you that this move is coming (I am also part of a crypto community but as a critical member (I am the party spoiler there)).

But how can they move to a digital Euro to prevent bank runs, when I can’t see the infrastructure in place to do so.

Especially in such a short amount of time rg. the date you mentioned. They can eliminate cash withdrawals, yes, but paying with my smartphone reguires technology .. ?

Thanks a lot,

A

ANSWER: We are talking about bureaucrats. They only think in concepts much like Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset. The practical application of what they are doing is not there. They lack even the infrastructure, as in California, to force all cars to be electric. They do not have the power grid to support that.

I was in meetings where they actually told me with a straight face that they had to take trading the Euro away from Britain. I asked if they were going to take it away from the USA, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc? They looked at me puzzled, and said no! Just Britain. I asked if they really wanted to control the Euro just convert it into the old Soviet Union ruble. No free market at all.

Then there was all the rage that in London the big banks all threatened that they would move their trading to Frankfurt if BREXIT took place. But again, neither Frankfurt nor Paris has the telecommunication capacity of London. They could not possibly set up shop in Europe. There is no infrastructure to match London.

The problem that is the hidden crisis is that they have DESTROYED their own bond market. The ECB cannot even allow its balance sheet to shrink as debt matures. The Federal Reserve was not rolling over the debt they bought back in the 2007-2009 crisis. As it matured, they cashed it in.

The ECB is trapped. It cannot shrink its balance sheet for there is no market for the debt. They have finally agreed to fund this Coronavirus destruction they organized by creating combined Euro Debt for the first time. That is because nation-states cannot raise the capital.

They lack the infrastructure on every front. That does not mean they will not try. They have run out of opinions. They are desperately trying to revive their debt market, but they have wiped it out with negative interest rates since 2014.

This is what I keep warning about. INFLATION has nothing to do with the money supply any longer. Those are an old idea from the time of Gresham’s Law in advising Queen Elizabeth not to debase the currency as her father did.

We must understand that the exchange value between the various currencies back then was the metal content. Therefore, inflation was a factor of the exchange rate rather than the money supply. The more the coinage was debased, the more people hoarded the old currency. Hence, Gresham’s Law became that bad money drives out good. As this process takes place, the money supply DECLINES because of hoarding. This forces the state to debase even more to create money to pay its expenses. Roosevelt confiscated gold in 1934 for the same reason – people were hoarding gold. The German hyperinflation was the result of the 1918 Communist Revolution which scared people and they converted their money to foreign currencies and hoarded precious metals. The greater the hoarding, the more the money supply shrank, which in turn forced the government to print more.

We find hoards of Roman coins during the 3rd century in particular after Valerian I (253-260AD) was captured by the Persians. That broke the confidence of the Roman people and other barbarian tribes in the north saw the weakness and began to invade.

The coinage collapsed in metal content in just 8,6 years. We find hoards of even the debased coinage because people lost confidence in the government. We see the very same patterns in human behavior over and over again.

This is a hoard of Arab gold dinars. We see always the same pattern of hoarding when there is a decline in the confidence of the government in power at that time.

The ECB can cut rates to try to stimulate and that failed. People are hoarding cash in Europe and that creates deflation. There is NO AMOUNT of money that can be created to offset the DEFLATION when people lack any confidence in the future. Then they are imposing this “New Norm” of lockdowns and destroying jobs and they actually expect to sell debt and keep interest rates at negative and somehow this will stimulate the economy they have worked so hard at destroying? The increase in the money supply of all these central banks is still less than 20% of the economic contraction globally.

Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Oct 14, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi, Mr. Armstrong
I noticed that the national news agency in my country had an article about a local digital currency in Maricá, Brazil. It is called Mumbuca. What I read about Mumbuca sounds good and all that, but I am curious if the news is just conditioning people to a new age of digital currency.
Do you have any comments about Mumbuca?
Thank you for your time and what you stand for.
Best Regards
AA

ANSWER: It is important to highlight that Mumbuca is a local digital currency whose name is a reference to the main river and to one of the native peoples of the city. A unit of Mumbuca is equivalent to R$ 1.00 (US$ 0.19). What is interesting is that this is a local city currency much like the Depression Scrip of the 1930s. This is really an experiment of guaranteed basic income. Increasingly, customers in the city don’t pay with cash but with this digital currency. They receive it as part of the town’s basic income program. They pay with a quick scan of a QR code, using their phones. So far, just over 42,000 inhabitants can pay local merchants with Mumbuca.

This is Brazil’s first big experiment with digital currency. Those without smartphones can pay using a card, which has a scannable barcode. They are way ahead of the game and, actually, it is being followed closely internationally.