Multinational Advertisers Begin Pulling Out of Twitter


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 3, 2022 | Sundance

In the prediction section of the recent Twitter discussion {Go Deep} CTH mentioned the reason and unspoken motive behind a prediction that multinational corporations would start to pull their advertising money from Elon Musk.

We are simply in an era where there is no distinction between the WEF guidance for multinational corporations and the instructions toward governments’ they support.  Free speech and freedom of expression are against both their interests.

Multinational corporations are political entities.  The former distinctions between the private and public sector have been purposefully erased.  Evidence can be found in the vaccination mandate and within corporate responses to voter outcomes during elections. {Go Deep}

As predicted, it begins….

(Via Wall Street Journal) – Food company General Mills Inc., Oreo maker Mondelez International Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Volkswagen/Audi are among a growing list of brands that have temporarily paused their Twitter advertising in the wake of the takeover of the company by Elon Musk, according to people familiar with the matter.

Some advertisers are concerned that Mr. Musk could scale back content moderation, which they worry would lead to an increase in objectionable content on the platform. Others are temporarily halting their ads because of the uncertainty at the company as top executives exit and Mr. Musk considers a raft of changes, some of the people said.

Kelsey Roemhildt, a spokeswoman for General Mills, whose brands include Cheerios, Bisquick and Häagen-Dazs, confirmed the company has paused Twitter ads. “As always, we will continue to monitor this new direction and evaluate our marketing spend,” she said.

A Twitter representative didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

General Motors Co. paused its spending on the social-media platform last week.

Several ad buyers say they expect the number of brands pausing Twitter ads to rise. They say that the platform isn’t considered a must-buy for many advertisers, with far larger budgets going to tech giants such as Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Meta Platforms Inc., and that pausing makes sense during the bumpy transition under Mr. Musk.

Many executives on Madison Avenue are uneasy with the rash of sudden executive departures from Twitter’s advertising sales and marketing units. Among those who have exited are Chief Customer Officer Sarah Personette, Chief Marketing Officer Leslie Berland, and Jean-Philippe Maheu, Twitter’s vice president of global client solutions. Those executives helped reassure advertisers that their ad dollars were being spent wisely and appropriately on Twitter. (read more)

Fascism was traditionally defined as an authoritarian government working hand-in-glove with corporations to achieve objectives. A centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, using severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition.

That system of government didn’t work in the long-term, because the underlying principles of free people reject government authoritarianism.  Fascist governments collapsed, and the corporate beneficiaries were nulled and scorned for participating.  Then, along came a new approach to achieve the same objective.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) was created to use the same fundamental associations of government and corporations.  Only this time, it was the multinational corporations who organized to tell the government(s) what to do.

The WEF was organized for multinational corporations to assemble and tell the various governments how to cooperate with them, in order to be rewarded by them.   Corporatism was/is the outcome.  The government is now doing what the multinationals tell them to do, and in return the multinationals install the compliant politicians.

Fascism, the cooperation between government and corporations, is still the underlying premise; the World Economic Forum simply flipped the internal dynamic putting the corporations in charge of handing out the instructions.

What results is a slightly modified definition of fascism:

A massive multinational corporate conglomerate; telling a centralized autocratic government leader what to do; and using severe economic and social regimentation as a control mechanism; combined with forcible suppression of opposition by both the corporations and government.

Doesn’t that define our current reality, especially visible in the era of COVID?

The instructions from the multinational corporations to government would be called the “Great Reset“, or as commonly transposed by the government officials receiving the instructions, “Build Back Better”.

 ~ Go Deep ~

IEA Warns of Possible Gasoline Shortages and Need for Rationing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 1, 2022 | Sundance

Does anyone remember during the Jimmy Carter era when odd/even days on license plates to get gas?  Well, if the International Energy Agency is accurate, and the issue extends into the U.S. as predicted by many industry insiders, we could very well see gasoline rationing once again.

Beyond all the obfuscation, denial and continual pretending, the reason for the gasoline shortages is related to this forcible shift in energy policy that is underway in Europe and the United States.  It’s not a shortage of oil, it’s the new era where the Green New Deal is the policy priority.  The people within the Biden administration do not care about the consequences, Biden is pushed in front of the camera as a useful idiot to take the blame.

Business Insider – The US could see fuel shortages this summer once people start taking their vacations — and Europe could take a particular hit from the lack of supply, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

“When the main holiday season starts in Europe and the US, fuel demand will rise,” Fatih Birol told Der Spiegel. “Then we could see shortages — for example, in diesel, petrol or kerosene, particularly in Europe.”

Birol also told the German newspaper that the energy crisis now underway will be more severe and longer-lasting than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, given it’s applying pressure on three fronts.

“Back then it was just about oil,” he said in the interview published Tuesday. “Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously.”

Oil prices spiked in 1973 and 1979 as the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian Revolution interrupted Middle Eastern crude exports. Geopolitical events have hit the market again in 2022, as western nations impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)

Joe Biden has no clue what the people running the administration agencies are doing.  Even if he were to ask them, they would simply type something into his teleprompter that he would believe and repeat.  Biden doesn’t care, the entire family is in it for the grift.

Why is CASH King in Times of War?


Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted May 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

So refreshing to see some theory regarding silver other than crazy goldbugs claiming JP Morgan artificially putting down t silver prices for XX years. Still what I find interesting is the weakness of the US stock market. Bonds getting dumped, Precious Metals getting dumped, EM’s getting dumped so everyone is just holding USD as cash? Take care.

Best,
Sant

ANSWER: In times of war, UNCERTAINTY is always dominant. It is interesting that the Romans’ Temple of Janus had two doors, and in times of war they were left open, symbolizing that the future was uncertain. Hence, the winds of war could pass freely through the temple, warning they could also lose. During times of peace, the doors were closed, symbolizing security. This is why CASH becomes king in times of war. Even the ancient coin hoards are typically stashed during times of war.

While some think that the Cuban Missile Crisis was when Kennedy took the nuclear deterrent to direct confrontation with Russia rather than attacking Cuba, I suggest that they look at the film the “Courier.” Kennedy did not reject the advice of his advisors to bomb Cuba, there was information flowing from a Russian dissenter who was concerned about nuclear war and the ideology of Khrushchev that communism would conquer the world. This is a totally different time. Putin is not a Communist, and he has no desire to conquer the world with an economic theory. Kennedy was following the advice of his advisers, who were NOT advocating to bomb Cuba. They knew they were fighting against an economic theory to conquer the world, which ironically is the objective of the World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab.

Freezing assets as Biden has done to all Russians is unproductive. Nobody seems to have ever asked, “Have sanctions ever worked?” On July 24, 1941, Tokyo decided to strengthen its position in terms of its invasion of China by moving through Southeast Asia. On July 26, 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt seized all Japanese assets in the United States in retaliation for the Japanese occupation of French Indo-China. That was followed by Pearl Harbor less than five months later. It seems that our leaders are deliberately pushing the world into war. They need to justify the collapse in their fiscal mismanagement of the global economic system.

The dollar rose during World War I and during the Great Depression when most of Europe defaulted on its debt in 1931. The dollar spiked higher in 1940, but then the US government imposed controls during World War II. They even instructed the Fed to buy US debt at par which they finally rejected in 1951. Note that once the controls were lifted, the dollar soared again post-war.

The dollar on a CASH basis has been the safe haven during war, mainly when the rest of the world is collapsing. This war will NOT be a rerun of the last two. Moving to digital currencies will be the kiss of death and render the financial system completely vulnerable to cyber attacks. The last time, there was counterfeiting of an opponent’s currency to undermine its ability to fund its defense. Even the British were counterfeiting the Continental Currency during the American Revolution.

Spokesperson For World’s Largest Military Overwhelmed with Emotion for Ukraine During Press Briefing


Posted originally onthe conservative treehouse on April 29, 2022 | Sundance 

Comrades, the deep, long and sullen violins were playing tearfully today as the World War Reddit theatrical performance came heavily to the Pentagon.  Leading narrative engineer John Kirby was captivating in his role as profoundly sullen squire overwhelmed with the magnitude of the moment and the emotion of the struggle in Ukraine.

The Biden production company is attempting to raise another $33 billion for enhanced theater operations in the besieged European country.  Pentagon chournalists are collecting canned goods, including soundbites, to support the war effort; and the Defense Dept is broadcasting the theme to Chariots of Fire across NATO signals.

Meanwhile, emotions throughout Europe are running high as valiant Prince Volodymyr of Donbas assembles his polished armor and directs his trusted steed into the wind.

Yes, today the clouds loomed heavy as Director Kirby narrated his audience while fighting bravely to keep the spirit of Edward R Murrow alive.  The wide-eyed maidens held their collective breath waiting in the mournful stillness of the moment… You could hear a pin drop. WATCH:

Congressional Representative Stressed About Twitter Causing Hate Crimes


Posted originally on the conservative Tree house on April 29, 2022 | Sundance

An emotionally unstable moonbat from the House of Representatives is “collectively stressed” because apparently Twitter ownership is directly connected to hate crimes on the streets.  (Source)

Being worried about Twitter creating hate crimes, is one fear higher than being chased by a turtle.

The Great Twitter Riots…..

…We Will Rebuild!

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Remarks About New DHS Disinformation Bureau, The Ministry of Truth


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 29, 2022 | Sundance 

Comrades, earlier today dissident Governor Ron DeSantis spoke out against the latest effort of the Biden administration to create an official disinformation bureau with a dedicated mission to assist Big Tech and social media platforms in their control of speech. {Direct Rumble Link}

There is no dis-, mis-, or mal-information There is only information the Government wants you to hear, and the information the U.S. Govt disapproves of.  The DHS disinformation board is dedicated to dealing with the latter.

Governor DeSantis made his remarks during an announcement to expand Florida infrastructure.  WATCH:

BEA Release, Wages Rise 4.5 Percent but Inflation Rises 6.6 Percent, Workers Fall Further Behind


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 29, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released March and first quarter (Q1) data today on personal income and outlays [DATA HERE].  The results show an increase in Q1 wages of 4.5%. However, inflation is running 6.6% on the items workers need to purchase.  The net result on Main Street is unsustainable inside the economy.  The U.S. stock market is responding negatively to this release.

It’s easy to get caught up in the esoteric weeds, so my effort here is to show just what is happening by putting an overlay of checkbook economics into the BEA release.  If we take out the noise it is very easy to see the problem.  I have modified TABLE-4 to put the results into simple understandable terms.

(Table 4, Source)

By looking at the far-right column (Q1 2022) you can see the problem.  Wage growth at $268.00, minus taxes paid $51.40, leaves disposable income or take-home pay at $216.60.  However, our expenses for living (shelter, food, utilities, energy, etc) cost $398.50, leaving a deficit for our income of $181.90.  We either dip into our savings to cover our expenses, or we go into debt.  This is not sustainable.

If you look at Q1 last year, you can clearly see where all of the inflation is coming from.  That massive increase in income came from the federal COVID bailout and stimulus funds.  $4 trillion directly pumped into the economy at a time when Biden justified massive bailout spending by saying they needed to offset the economic cost of prior COVID intervention (businesses and workers shut down).  That is the primary source of current inflation.

If you take out that Q1 spend from the economic activity, the U.S. economy was already contracting.  This is why CTH has continued to say our economy was in a state of contraction since June/July of 2021.  Everything after that massive dump of money was false economic activity; the GDP growth was artificial.  That bailout spending dried up in the fall and winter of last year and now we see the 2022 GDP going negative.

In essence the GDP contraction that we should have seen in 2021 was delayed by the massive infusion of cash in April of 2021.  However, that massive infusion of cash created inflation.  That inflation has been a crisis that grew from the summer of 2021 to its apex in the last month.

♦ So, what does all of this mean?

Let’s cut to the chase.  As CTH accurately predicted previously, inflation comes in waves because supplier purchases are done in contract terms of 30, 60 and 90 days.  As each contract for purchased goods expires, the new prices for future goods are changed.  We see waves of inflation in roughly three-month increments, and while prices were rising faster on a daily and weekly basis, those wave cycles started in October of 2021.

Wave 1, came Oct/Nov/Dec 2021.

Wave 2, came Jan/Feb/March 2022.

We talked about each wave as it was coming and as it arrived.  Ultimately, Wave-2 was bigger than Wave-1 as the cumulative increases the total supply chain and manufacturing flowed into the products we purchase.

♦ Where are we now?   There are two sub-sets:

• Inflation on durable goods is now at the apex.  The durable goods price flatlines right now as all production costs are embedded in the cost of the product.  The prices of finished goods are now set; inflation has caught up to production; the prices of on-shelf and inbound deliveries are higher, but stable.

Now, we enter the phase where consumer demand becomes the dominant factor in price.  Simultaneously, demand is contracting because the higher rate of inflation in highly consumable goods (energy, utility costs, housing, gasoline, food) is now a spending priority for consumers and eating a larger portion of wages.   As a result, the price of durable goods is now dependent on the ability of the consumer to pay for them.

Sellers of durable goods are going to be chasing a smaller customer base who can afford them.  Durable goods prices will remain static, and now durable goods prices will likely become part of the competitive equation.  The businesses within the durable goods sector are going to have to find customers in order to stay in business.  Incentives will show up this spring/summer as businesses need customers.   If you are a wise, careful and smart shopper for durable goods you will find deals

• Inflation on consumable goods is not yet at the apex.  It’s likely close to production parity, but prices pressures are still volatile in the upward direction. The price of gasoline and transportation overall will be a big factor in current prices of highly consumable goods.  We should see oil, gas and energy prices stabilize first.

Rents will likely increase for another three to six months, then stabilize (and, in my opinion start to fall late summer).

Housing overall is far more challenging as mortgage rates are climbing.  Refinancing as a method to bridge the income gap between wages and expenses is a big problem now in this phase.  There is going to be a period of massive fluctuations and instability in the housing market depending on region and employment stability as the recession phase of the total economy is going to bite hard.

For most regions with mixed blend underlying economies (products and services) macro housing prices have peaked in the last 15 days.  For ordinary housing purchases, not institutional investments, we should start to see price decreases again as the customer base for high prices shrinks.  Obviously, this is driven by inventory and regional specifics; however, I am talking in the aggregate within the macro housing situation.

Food prices still have some upward pressures through Memorial day.  Then a period of stability will settle, before the third wave of food inflation hits later in the summer/fall of this year; that’s when the increases in farming costs will reach the fork.

Late summer and fall food prices will likely be 15 to 20 percent higher than current prices at the supermarket.  The fresh foods will be on the upper side of the future price wave, and the processed foods on the lower end; however, both will increase.

The last factors in the food price are far more challenging to predict….  Supply?   Any problems within the food production cycle that impacts supply will drive prices, beyond what we already expect.  If there are major shortages, the prices will go even higher.

This food environment is unfortunately the best time for Big Agriculture, the Wall Street multinationals, to make the most profit.  The Big Ag multinationals will exploit every possible angle within inventory, supply and harvest controls to maximize their profit equation.  There are a great deal of unknown global variables right now that could impact U.S. food prices later this year.  The only certainty is that prices will further increase.

Joe Biden sucks.

.

Footnote, pray for good weather and stability this summer. If it is an active hurricane season, gasoline, oil exploration and refinery issues will make matters worse. The southern coastal areas, especially Florida, Louisiana and Texas need a non-dramatic summer.

Crisis is Shutting Down – Capital Flows Begin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A Re-Posted Apr 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Now that Canadian banks have proven themselves completely compromised by Trudeau and his bootlickers, is there a “safer” haven for $CAD? US$ accounts held by Canadian banks are available but are they really any better?

D

QUESTION #2: Dear Mr. Armstrong, Thanks to your Blog I learned a long time ago that Europeans should get their money out of Europe while they still can (into USA). I did that, but now the Wells Fargo bank asked me to close the account. Apparently because since Biden’s new government came to power a new Federal law requires now all banks (including in Florida) to get proof of a residence in the USA. I can not even enter the USA anymore because I’m not vaccinated. Could you please help? What can we do now? Thank you.

FV

ANSWER: I believe a European/Non-American can open an investment account such as a money market in the United States. I know that Merrill’s money market is done through a specific group at Merrill that only works with international clients. They then report back to your home country where you have an account. The hunt for money is really global now.

The US is already starting to cooperate with Europe given the capital flows to the US in the wake of the stupidity over Ukraine. As long as the West continues to fill the pockets of Zelensky, who is now believed to have $850 million stashed offshore, then there is no resolution. Zelensky has no incentive to negotiate an end to this as long as arms and money pour into Ukraine. Let Donbas go with Crimea, which is Russian anyhow, and stop pushing for World War III. The West simply wants war with Russia, or they would not be sending arms to Ukraine and pushing Zelensky to settle.

For now, the capital flows are pointing to the dollar as the safe haven given the prospects of war in Europe. This trend appears to be in motion into 2024. Thereafter, we have the risk of a global war on a grand scale.

The Refusal to Understand Economics


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Apr 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Once upon a time, I use to respect The Economist. I even took the back cover in July 1985 to announce that the Economic Confidence Model was beginning a new 51.6-year Cycle that was a Private Wave that would ultimately peak in 2032. I boldly announced the bottom in gold and the peak in the dollar taking the back cover every week in July 1985.

The Economist just released its cover article sadly demonstrating that the publication remains in the Dark Age of economics. They began:

“Central Banks are supposed to inspire confidence in the economy by keeping inflation low and stable. America’s Federal Reserve has suffered a hair-raising loss of control. In March consumer prices were 8.5% higher than a year earlier, the fastest annual rise since 1981. … It is the Fed, however, that had the tools to stop inflation and failed to use them in time.”

To say I am shocked at their reporting that is no better than a first-semester student in Economics 101. It reflects a complete lack of comprehension of how the economy even functions and adopts the politician view that they are NEVER responsible for inflation – it is always the central bank.

Clearly, they have not bothered to take notice that something major took place with the fall of Bretton Woods in 1971. Previously, the theory was if you borrowed, that was less inflationary rather than printing more money. Of course, that was a throwback to the days of Gresham’s Law when currencies traded in Amsterdam were based not on political-military power, but on the pure metal content. The debasement of the coinage by Henry VIII led to (1) the higher-based coinage being hoarded and (2) the decline in the value of English coinage trading in Amsterdam.

That theory became the Quantity of Money Theory which today is totally obsolete yet that is what we hear all the time when the Fed increased its balance sheet and therefore it should have been inflationary following 2008 but the Fed and other central banks could not create 2% inflation. That even led to some claiming MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) proves that the creation of money is NOT inflationary.

It was barely two months after we announced the beginning of a Private Wave in the Economist in July 1985 that in September 1985, the central banks were all called together and formed the G5 and then proclaimed that they wanted the dollar lower by 40%. This was James Baker’s brainchild that manipulating the dollar lower would reduce the US trade deficit and create jobs.

Letter Armstrong to Reagan October 1985 With Photo

I was summoned to be among the global experts who solicit advice but never listen. It is always a dog & pony show so they can pretend they summoned the top experts in the world and then announce what they intended to do anyhow. Of course, it is always pretended to be based on independent advice. However, that is just not how Washington or any government functions. So I wrote to President Reagan and warned that devaluing the dollar to reverse the trade deficit would lead to a crash.

sprinkel-11081985

The present ordered Beryl Sprinkel who was the 14th Chariman of the Economic Advisers to the President (1985-1989) to respond. It had been the rise in interest rates to 14% under Paul Volcker to reduce inflation that led to the Deflation. Capital poured into the dollar for the high-interest rates which peaked precisely with the previous ECM wave in March 1981. Thereafter, the dollar soared driving the British pound down to $1.03 in 1985.

Clearly, the entire theory that the Economist is still clinging to currently is unsupported by the historical evidence. The raising of interest rates to stop inflation led to the explosion of the national debt thanks to the servicing costs. In 1980, the national debt stood at $907.7 billion. By 1989, the debt reached $2.857 trillion. The raising of interest rates created deflation near-term but expanded the inflation longer-term.

The Plaza Accord set in motion the 1987 Crash. They failed to understand that lowering the value of the dollar may have made US goods appear cheaper overseas to reduce the trade deficit, but at the same time, it also devalues all the US assets in the eyes of foreign investors. After selling more than one-third of the US national debt to the Japanese, the lowering of the dollar by 40% would mean a 40% loss on their holding of US debt.

As the dollar began a free-fall, the central banks began to realize this was a mistake. The Louvre Accord was an agreement, signed on February 22, 1987, in Paris, that aimed to stabilize the international currency markets and halt the continued decline of the US Dollar caused by the Plaza Accord. The agreement was signed by France, West Germany, Japan, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Italy declined to sign the agreement. The Group of 5 became the Group of 7 – G7 (now G20).

The G7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Paris announced that the dollar was now “consistent with economic fundamentals.” They announced that they would only intervene when required to ensure foreign exchange stability. The objective was then to manage the floating currency system.

Democrats gained control of Congress in 1986 and immediately called for protectionist measures. The dollar depreciation agreed to in 1985 at the Plaza Accord, failed to really improve the trade perspective. In 1986, the trade deficit actually rose to approximately $166 billion with exports at about $370 billion and imports at about $520 billion. The object of manipulating currency to try to create jobs and alter trade flows proved to be completely false.

My concerns warning the White House that volatility would increase made back in 1985 were materializing. What they did not understand was that lowering the dollar in value also led to a shift in capital flows and the selling of US assets. Foreigners were suffering losses by financing U.S. trade by purchasing United States Treasury bonds in an attempt to ease the trade deficit criticism. We were advising the Japanese to buy gold on the New York COMEX, export it, and then resell which would also make it appear that the US exports were increasing. However, the lower dollar was then resulting in the importation of inflation into their own nations.

The press back then never understood the crash. I was called in by the Brady Commission charged with investigating the causes of the Crash. Of course, they would not blame the government. The best I could do was to prevent a witch-hunt on Wall Street and the final report casually mentioned that they believed foreign exchange had something to do with it.

There is probably nobody else who has dealt with more central banks than me from China to Switzerland and into the Middle East. To read this cover story by the Economist was indeed shocking. They are obviously still under the impression that inflation is the result of the rise and fall of the money supply that dates back to the days of Henry VIII. I dare say, things have changed slightly.

Today, governments have borrowed relentlessly. But the debt is acceptable now as collateral so national debts are simply money that pays interest. That is completely out of the scope of the central bank so it DOES NOT have the tools to prevent or create inflation. The politicians always want to spend whatever it takes to win the next election and then blame the central bank if it resulted in inflation. It is a sad day that the Economist is so out of touch its rambling and that of someone serious out of touch with reality.

Wealthy Flee Shanghai


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The lockdown in Shanghai has caused immeasurable damage to the people and battered an already stunted global supply chain. The wealthy are now fleeing the city, as numerous agencies have reported a large uptick in immigration requests. The Financial Times reported a 7-fold increase in the search term “immigration” among residents.

The media has downplayed this story as they do not want the people to remember governments’ capabilities. As with the fall of many great cities, the wealthy are the first to leave. Shanghai may be one of the richest cities in China, but it is not immune to government tyranny.

Only 25 deaths in Shanghai were attributed to the coronavirus, but over 25 million people directly suffered from this lockdown. The lockdown was not about safety. Warehouses are beginning to open, but the world’s largest port ceased operations. Again, no world leaders commented heavily on these major issues.

Pets of the “infected” were eliminated by the government. There were reports of people jumping from high rises and others begging the police to take them to jail with the hope of having a meal. No world leaders have commented on these human rights abuses as they were done in the name of COVID.